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  • #81
  • Jan 11, 2018 10:38pm Jan 11, 2018 10:38pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} It sounds like you coded a mean reversal system .. and of course trend following is not any better. The clue might be that when it works perfectly the system is not in a fat tail. And when the fat tail occurs the idea would be to get in the correct direction at least for a break even. So why eliminate these days ? after all, the real money maker is on the big move.
This is wrong!

The big move happens too rarely.
The big move is unreliable.
You never know when the big move will occur!
In order to catch the big move, you have to have exposure at all times. Or in other words, you have to chase every small move! Because ALL big moves begin as small moves.
If you wait for the moment when the big move becomes obvious - then you are too late!
When you chase all small moves, the total loss always exceeds the total profit. The profit from the big move is never big enough to compensate for the large number of small losses.
  • #82
  • Jan 11, 2018 10:46pm Jan 11, 2018 10:46pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Indeed, to me this is perfect. Which ever side you are on you are either in profit and if not you just have to wait at least to break even..
Exactly! With such price action you have to try REAL hard to lose money.

Even if you place completely random trades with small fixed TP and large SL you still end up with profit.
  • #83
  • Edited Jan 12, 2018 12:01am Jan 11, 2018 11:15pm | Edited Jan 12, 2018 12:01am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} This is wrong! The big move happens too rarely. The big move is unreliable. You never know when the big move will occur! In order to catch the big move, you have to have exposure at all times. Or in other words, you have to chase every small move! Because ALL big moves begin as small moves. If you wait for the moment when the big move becomes obvious - then you are too late! When you chase all small moves, the total loss always exceeds the total profit. The profit from the big move is never big enough to compensate for the large number of...
Agreed.
To chase every small move expecting a big move is a mistake.
But if big moves cannot be avoided and invariably always against your position then somehow you must either take the loss or reverse early or hedge (just to get into a new set of problems)
  • #84
  • Jan 12, 2018 12:59am Jan 12, 2018 12:59am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} Exactly! With such price action you have to try REAL hard to lose money. Even if you place completely random trades with small fixed TP and large SL you still end up with profit.
Have u tried to filter days with big news (NFP..) ?
  • #85
  • Jan 12, 2018 1:19am Jan 12, 2018 1:19am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} This is wrong! The big move happens too rarely. The big move is unreliable. You never know when the big move will occur!
Hi!

You can filter out ranges using Renko or Range bars. S/R zones, Channels may help too.
You can not predict big moves, as you said, because we can not predict them.
But they exist.
This leads to proven trough, cut the losses short and let your winners run.
Find the statistical edge from there.
There are strategies for ranges and strategies for trends, but no way to mix them.
If you want to avoid big moves, trade when volatility is low.
Hours before opening Tokyo.

SP
  • #86
  • Jan 12, 2018 2:06am Jan 12, 2018 2:06am
Quoting FerruFx
I have learnt: - Plenty of useless threads are opened every day - Generally these useless threads are in the wrong forum section
I learnt that most successful traders don't post much, tonnes of post are mostly from losers
  • #87
  • Jan 12, 2018 2:26am Jan 12, 2018 2:26am
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} If you have time, check out this thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=570673), it explains pretty much everything, revolving around interest rates and it's relation to the forex market. The idea posted in this thread is based on that same concept, but removes one time events, focusing on the continuous change of the markets.
Thnaks COGS for the quick response. Looks to be a great thread and much appreciated for the resource...
  • #88
  • Jan 12, 2018 4:32am Jan 12, 2018 4:32am
1. Not every system is suitable for everyone. Take everything in consideration but implement only what suits you
2. Stop losses are dangerous also. Novice traders should try to open the opposite of their system tells them to do. With low take profit and high stop loss. It is counter intuitive but it works better than the original system. If you understand that this is not a viable way of trading, then you have hope to become a successful trader.
3. I still cannot decide if it is good to post publicly a successful trading system.
4. It is better to trade low amounts with higher stop losses than the opposite. As long as your trade is open you are learning. If the trade closes, you stop learning.
5. Set your TP and SL and leave them until the trade closes. Trust your analysis - do not change plans in the middle of a trade.
6. Those are my understandings and they are fit for me. They may not fit to you.
  • #89
  • Jan 13, 2018 7:00pm Jan 13, 2018 7:00pm
I didn’t learn how to make money. But I learned how not to lose money. That is just as important.
  • #90
  • Jan 14, 2018 4:54pm Jan 14, 2018 4:54pm
I have never witness such a great number of different and vicious snakes gathered in one pit. Some can even transformed into different species and reappear again and again waiting to bite on unsuspecting victims. Hehe.

GS
  • #91
  • Jan 14, 2018 5:00pm Jan 14, 2018 5:00pm
Quoting genghistar
I have never witness such a great number of different and vicious snakes gathered in one pit. Some can even transformed into different species and reappear again and again waiting to bite on unsuspecting victims. Hehe. GS
What are you talking about. T'is only a flesh wound.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmInkxbvlCs
  • #92
  • Edited 1:56am Aug 13, 2018 1:38am | Edited 1:56am
There is evidence and survey on FF , that 90% lose due to trading psychology.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=8824

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=11359925#post11359925
  • #93
  • Aug 13, 2018 2:43am Aug 13, 2018 2:43am
Quoting loozers
There is evidence and survey on FF , that 90% lose due to trading psychology. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=8824 https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=11359925#post11359925
Psychology is an exaggerated problem. If you're on the wrong side, psychology won't save you. Once you have a good method and you understand what you get paid for - psychology is not a problem. Personally I had a problem, it was greed to get more, it was easy to solve, I reduced the leverage, now it is less than 50. FF motivated me to keep going and not leave trading when something went wrong. Just my opinion.
Excuse me, my English is very bad...
  • #94
  • Aug 13, 2018 3:35am Aug 13, 2018 3:35am
Quoting loozers
There is evidence and survey on FF , that 90% lose due to trading psychology. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=8824 https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=11359925#post11359925
most people dont know the bacis of trading, and so not the math behind a market like forex.

the truth is, in a forex market with fees 80-99% has to lose that some can win. thats the only truth, no perfect teaching of all traders, no perfect money management of all traders, nothing what was mentioned in the poll can change this (maybe "other" could be only correct answer)!

90% lose due to trading psychology is total wrong anwer. total!
  • #95
  • Aug 13, 2018 4:02am Aug 13, 2018 4:02am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote}nothing what was mentioned in the poll can change this (maybe "other" could be only correct answer)! 90% lose due to trading psychology is total wrong anwer. total!
58.7 % of voters voted for psychology, greed and money management , all 3 are psychology related.58.7 /90 % would still make it 65 % lose due to psychology.
  • #96
  • Aug 13, 2018 7:05am Aug 13, 2018 7:05am
Quoting loozers
{quote} 58.7 % of voters voted for psychology, greed and money management , all 3 are psychology related.58.7 /90 % would still make it 65 % lose due to psychology.
and thats total wrong!
when all traders would have perfect psychology background, still 80-99% need to lose because of the simple basics. people dont like to learn basics first, so they come to this stupid wrong answers and wonder why they cant trade good enough, when they not even know the total basics of the market they trade in.
  • #97
  • Aug 13, 2018 7:19am Aug 13, 2018 7:19am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} and thats total wrong! when all traders would have perfect psychology background, still 80-99% need to lose because of the simple basics. people dont like to learn basics first, so they come to this stupid wrong answers and wonder why they cant trade good enough, when they not even know the total basics of the market they trade in.

So the survey participants are liars?
  • #98
  • Aug 13, 2018 8:38am Aug 13, 2018 8:38am
Quoting loozers
{quote} So the survey participants are liars?
they dont know the basics! they dont lie, they dont know it better and are 100% wrong!

its so easy to know when you know the basics, one of the first basics you learn is what is the forex market!

maybe 99% are to lazy to learn basics before they trade. you dont want to learn first the basics too?
  • #99
  • Aug 13, 2018 10:15am Aug 13, 2018 10:15am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} they dont know the basics! they dont lie, they dont know it better and are 100% wrong! its so easy to know when you know the basics, one of the first basics you learn is what is the forex market! maybe 99% are to lazy to learn basics before they trade. you dont want to learn first the basics too?
Retail forex basic education is learnt on forums from other amateurs/novices, they are taught by people who never succeeded at trading, is this going to make any difference? Some of this education like 20 longs and shorts a day or basket of 25 pairs opened simultaneously is for making brokers rich, not the trader getting rich , but at the trader's expense.

Books are written by failed traders , so all this fake theoretic education is really useless. Real trading education is learnt in the pits, swimming with the sharks can only be learnt by swimming with the sharks, not by somebody telling theories of how to swim with the sharks. The person going to swim with the sharks will have emotions, stress and all psychology.
  • #100
  • Aug 15, 2018 9:16am Aug 15, 2018 9:16am
Quoting RondaRousey
.
According to me, FF is the best place to learn Forex. I started my trading from zero level & I had no trainer actually! My support was all of the popular Forex forums and FF was the key point.
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