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  • #61
  • Aug 6, 2017 5:15am Aug 6, 2017 5:15am
For me, it’s only 4 months! But I have improved a lot on news trading by using FF! I see, there have enough resource on news trading, so many valuable threads! Besides, the members of this Forex community are too much helpful, a great learning place indeed!
  • #62
  • Oct 7, 2017 5:04pm Oct 7, 2017 5:04pm
I only recently joined but have been someone sitting on the sidelines for years. Dunno what has prompted me to sign up TBH. Possibly that I've had so much value from FF from the right threads. To those looking for good threads, check out the classics like the James 16 thread. One thing - don't read these classic threads just to blindly follow strategies. As you read constantly think: do I agree? If you do so, you are constantly critically assessing your own approach and may find things you can do better ...
  • #63
  • Oct 9, 2017 10:27am Oct 9, 2017 10:27am
I have learned that I am not alone, that there are plenty of other struggling but stubborn traders like me out there. That alone provides me with great comfort.
As to the actual knowledge, I've read plenty of useful suggestions about strategies, about how to deal with my emotions while trading, even recommendations about books a trader should read.
  • #64
  • Oct 11, 2017 11:11pm Oct 11, 2017 11:11pm
I have gathered a good trading skill on fundamental analysis! Before, I lost my money during the major news events but I am not! That’s my main achievement.
  • #65
  • Jan 11, 2018 3:48am Jan 11, 2018 3:48am
Yes, I am a new member in this community! But, I have been using Economic Calendar of ForexFactory from the last 2 years! For doing fundamental analysis; FF is my 1st choice! By the way, now I am active here, because I wanna learn more since I have seen, there have so many useful threads here on technical and fundamental analysis! I am sure, I am on the right way with the FF community!
  • #66
  • Edited 2:41pm Jan 11, 2018 11:41am | Edited 2:41pm
Not specifically FF, but after 15 years of research, I still haven't found a methodological contrivance that delivers a free lunch: for every benefit (in terms of reducing risk; or increasing return, or probability of success) there somewhere lurks an (approximately) commensurate drawback (more here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1452677#post1452677)). Hence success ultimately comes down to analysis that locates some kind of exploitable probability-based bias or inefficiency in the way that price invariably moves. Any entry/exit/MM device will eventually prove impotent, unless it somehow exploits a market bias or truism that puts you net long while price is rising, and/or net short while price is falling, frequently enough to overcome costs. Anything less is merely gambling, a 50/50 crapshoot where costs will eventually drain your account.
  • #67
  • Jan 11, 2018 12:23pm Jan 11, 2018 12:23pm
I have learned that almost everything you can read in trading books (the popular trading "wisdom") is 100% BS!
I have learned that our ability to analyze the markets for the purpose to "forecast" them is mostly irrelevant.
I have learned that we can beat the market with incredibly simple algorithms which include no fundamentals, no indicators, nothing! Just using the current price.

The true holy grail in trading does exist, but it's not what you expect it to be.

The holy grail is a "simple" equation which so far proves impossible to solve.

Here it is: HG=sum(PA TOTAL)-FT; (You can put it in different format with multiple variables....)
But in the end of the day it all comes down to a "simple" problem - How to eliminate (filter out) the fat tails? By fat tails I mean days(periods) like the one on the screenshot below:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fat tail.png Size: 32 KB


If you(anyone) find a way to filter out these days, I promise to give you the trading algorithm which makes money EVERY SINGLE DAY! With the exception of the days classified as fat tails.
  • #68
  • Jan 11, 2018 1:08pm Jan 11, 2018 1:08pm
Make things simple as possible, but not simpler
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #69
  • Jan 11, 2018 5:46pm Jan 11, 2018 5:46pm
Quoting alphaomega
I have learned that almost everything you can read in trading books (the popular trading "wisdom") is 100% BS! I have learned that our ability to analyze the markets for the purpose to "forecast" them is mostly irrelevant. I have learned that we can beat the market with incredibly simple algorithms which include no fundamentals, no indicators, nothing! Just using the current price. The true holy grail in trading does exist, but it's not what you expect it to be. The holy grail is a "simple" equation which so far proves impossible to solve....

Banks exchange money everyday, domestically and internationally, at the same time they provide large loans to the market. How do they capitalize their vaults?

They purchase foreign and domestic government bonds. Yes the markets will get excited from time to but the market will always finds in median.

What does this all mean from a technical aspect?

Who has the largest money supply in the world? USD obviously.
Banks exchange money everyday, domestically and internationally, at the same time they provide large loans to the market. How do they capitalize their vaults?

They purchase foreign and domestic government bonds. Yes the markets will get excited from time to but the market will always finds in median.

What does this all mean from a technical aspect?

How has the largest money supply in the world? USD obviously.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU+Bonds.jpg Size: 246 KB
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #70
  • Jan 11, 2018 9:14pm Jan 11, 2018 9:14pm
1. Do not copy a strategy, build your own strategy.
2. Keep it simple and logic
3. FF is full of Trolls and wannabes
  • #71
  • Jan 11, 2018 9:48pm Jan 11, 2018 9:48pm
Quoting gachapin
1. Do not copy a strategy, build your own strategy. 2. Keep it simple and logic 3. FF is full of Trolls and wannabes
thats a good answer.

1 of this extrem bad examples is in your subscribtions list:"SalvatoreD". he was one of the biggest faker/cheater here in forexfactory a long time ago, to bring money in pamm account with the goal to let it crash later, so that the broker connected get all the money. he is only staff from the broker or extrem connected for this fraud.
  • #72
  • Jan 11, 2018 9:52pm Jan 11, 2018 9:52pm
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} 1 of this extrem bad examples is in your subscribtions list:"SalvatoreD". he was one of the biggest faker/cheater her in forexfactory a long time ago, to bring money in pamm account with the goal to let it crash later, so that the broker connected get all the money. he is only staff from the broker or extrem connected for this fraud.

Das ist Vergangenheit. The subscriptions are updated lol
  • #73
  • Jan 11, 2018 10:13pm Jan 11, 2018 10:13pm
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} Banks exchange money everyday, domestically and internationally, at the same time they provide large loans to the market. How do they capitalize their vaults? They purchase foreign and domestic government bonds. Yes the markets will get excited from time to but the market will always finds in median. What does this all mean from a technical aspect? Who has the largest money supply in the world? USD obviously. Banks exchange money everyday, domestically and internationally, at the same time they provide large loans to the market. How do they...

COGSx86,

"They purchase foreign and domestic government bonds."

Could you please go more into this concept, how bonds and currencies are interlinked. Are bonds are leading in nature and how/why?

Thanks
  • #74
  • Jan 11, 2018 11:24pm Jan 11, 2018 11:24pm
Quoting alphaomega
I have learned that almost everything you can read in trading books (the popular trading "wisdom") is 100% BS! I have learned that our ability to analyze the markets for the purpose to "forecast" them is mostly irrelevant. I have learned that we can beat the market with incredibly simple algorithms which include no fundamentals, no indicators, nothing! Just using the current price. The true holy grail in trading does exist, but it's not what you expect it to be. The holy grail is a "simple" equation which so far proves impossible to solve....
Hi,
Can you explain what you mean by Fat Tail in your exemple and why it's not a good thing ?
Thanks
  • #75
  • Jan 11, 2018 11:34pm Jan 11, 2018 11:34pm
Quoting aaven
{quote} COGSx86, "They purchase foreign and domestic government bonds." Could you please go more into this concept, how bonds and currencies are interlinked. Are bonds are leading in nature and how/why? Thanks

If you have time, check out this thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=570673), it explains pretty much everything, revolving around interest rates and it's relation to the forex market. The idea posted in this thread is based on that same concept, but removes one time events, focusing on the continuous change of the markets.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #76
  • Jan 11, 2018 11:40pm Jan 11, 2018 11:40pm
I learned that patience is key when you are sitting in a good position ... like they say: 'you got to wait till the cows come home' ...
I learned also how to use ema's and the slow stochastic oscillator to better analyse the market which is an everchanging being driven by supply and demand and greed and fear. Show no fear when others do ...
I also learned ATR to determine stops and targets.
  • #77
  • Jan 12, 2018 12:08am Jan 12, 2018 12:08am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Hi, Can you explain what you mean by Fat Tail in your exemple and why it's not a good thing ? Thanks
Fat tails = strong, smooth, persistent trends almost without any corrections. Basically, any day with range above average and max correction < 28%.

This type of trading day happens less than 5% of the time. These days are the occasional "black swans (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory)" in some of my most promising automated systems.

If we can find a way to eliminate these days from the system, then we automatically have a bulletproof system which makes money every time it open a new position. With this system it becomes impossible to lose. It's the ultimate holy grail.

If we can find a way to filter out even only 50% of these days - we still end up with very solid system.

There is no forecasting, no guesswork, no analysis. Just pure automated money machine which brings profit approximately 220 days each year.

I coded this system years ago. It works perfectly....except during the smooth days. Then is loses all profits and more.
  • #78
  • Jan 12, 2018 12:24am Jan 12, 2018 12:24am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} Fat tails = strong, smooth, persistent trends almost without any corrections. Basically, any day with range above average and max correction < 28%. This type of trading day happens less than 5% of the time. These days are the occasional "black swans (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory)" in some of my most promising automated systems. If we can find a way to eliminate these days from the system, then we automatically have a bulletproof system which makes money every time it open a new position. With this system it...
It sounds like you coded a mean reversal system .. and of course trend following is not any better.
The clue might be that when it works perfectly the system is not in a fat tail. And when the fat tail occurs the idea would be to get in the correct direction at least for a break even. So why eliminate these days ? after all, the real money maker is on the big move.
  • #79
  • Jan 12, 2018 12:27am Jan 12, 2018 12:27am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Hi, Can you explain what you mean by Fat Tail in your exemple and why it's not a good thing ? Thanks
To understand my point, look at this screenshot below and try to answer the following questions:

How risky is this type of market environment if we also assume that there is no expected high impact news during this time?
Do you have to forecast during such environment in order to make money?
What type of action during such environment is going to result in losses?
Is it even possible to lose money during such environment?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chop.png Size: 90 KB
  • #80
  • Jan 12, 2018 12:33am Jan 12, 2018 12:33am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} To understand my point, look at this screenshot below and try to answer the following questions: How risky is this type of market environment if we also assume that there is no expected high impact news during this time? Do you have to forecast during such environment in order to make money? What type of action during such environment is going to result in losses? Is it even possible to lose money during such environment? {image}
Indeed, to me this is perfect. Which ever side you are on you are either in profit and if not you just have to wait at least to break even..
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