(binned per thread starter’s request) Algo diamonds

I was wrong! Algo Diamonds down for the day although the long direction of the trades will probably be correct the risk (15pips) had to be respected. Early days and 4 losses in a row is within the standard.

Dear subscribers,

Please remain patient. We should see a new pip high before the 11th Jan (equity high will depend on the MM you're using).

I'll reply to an email on the thread:

The algos trade specific setups with tight stop-losses. They will pick the direction of the trade accurately but get stopped out due to the tight initial stop or the trailing profit. This happened this morning, we gained a handful of pips but the trailing stop and 'time in market stop' got us out of the market - with green pips - then price continued higher so we missed out on more green pips. This can not be avoided but there will be many times in the future when our trades ride the entire profitable move but there has to be a trade-off between tight risk management and exit efficiency.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, the enterprising amongst you may decide to place a manual trade to mirror the algo majority vote with a larger stop-loss but this is outside the scope of Algo Diamonds.

It is never a good feeling to only collect 20-60% of the pips on offer but it is a worse feeling to see a nice profitable trade turn into a loss. We'll ride some nice waves in the future but we won't alway ride them from start to finish.

The daily selling zone is between 2041 to 2071. A short at the current price location offers good RR. Target 2010 to 2015.

Monthly play: Looking for the double top and strong break of 2037.

MONTHLY: Although, I'd feel even more confident if the blue line (b) takes out the valley (a) but at least it is approaching it with momentum.

If 2071 is taken out with conviction (a break then solid retest with rejection of 2080) , expect price to head to 1.22.

A Davit (https://www.forexfactory.com/davit) Pivot sell confirmed on the 5m, 15m and 30m EURUSD (I don't need to plagiarize!).

Which all obviously points towards better than expected ADP.

So stops on shorts should be above 2082.

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Fib 0.618 extension approx 1950
Fib 1.618 extension approx 1870

Alignment for 18XX continues to get stronger.

I believe the next 12 minutes will determine direction. But the current hourly outside bar looks quite bullish to be honest.

14:00: It still looks like the road to increased wealth is in the South direction:

I think EURUSD traders need to look at the weekly chart zoomed out to 1997 to get a better macro price feel.

Been stopped out -12 & looking to reenter short if 2080 fails to hold:

Realising I'm the last EURUSD Bear on FF, I really cannot see an upside continuation based on my panel of stuff. I'm expecting a pull-back. I'm probably wrong!



https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10640646#post10640646

Below 2037 we could see 1850ish between the 12th and 15th (amended time and price).

And if that plays out prime, your longs at 1850 for 2224 by the end of the month or the first week of Feb.

17:24: an ugly looking H&S on the 1min could take us within sniffing distance of 2037. This would need a trendline break at around 2045. Two Andrews Pitchfork upward sloping failures, the 2nd failure indicating a weak high (although most believe it was a strong high around 2090).

Gun to the temple gut call: a sell-off is coming but perhaps too late in the day for it to be initiated today but you never know and I could be wrong because I'm looking for a solid downward breach of 2037 for more downside and this may not transpire.

17:39: I'm pretty sure the high for the day has been reached assuming no unexpected news is announced before close.

Closed 50% of my shorts and BE+2 on the remainder.

Looking to short scalping from 2075 to 2062.

When will there be space for more subscribers your reckon ?

Brrrr....so cold and empty here. You should get a new nick and come back to earth.

GS.

In 3 months time.

Hmmm:


https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10640646#post10640646



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hmmmm



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The above is classic, a trader being loaded upto the hilt in one direction and must convince all other traders he is right to feel confident in their trade. Only a very heavy load makes a trader behave in such a crazy manner and normally occurs in the very early days of the trading career, along with prayer trading (please Lord, let the price go up so my entire account isn't blown after a 10 pip adverse move and I will donate 50% of my future profits to charity & the Church).

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Anyway, the EURUSD? The seem deal as yesterday and below 2080 is good for me.

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As per yesterday at 2088: My analysis favours a sell-off. Today's likely downside target is between 2027 to 1987.

If price reaches 1987 I'd be compelled to intraday buy with a 30 pip stop-loss. If the stop-loss was taken out, will flip the position to short to target 1850. So today's high probability high RR long trade zone is 1987 to 1937 (probably build the position with small lots as soon as the price touches 1987). I'd hold the position to the end of day with no PT.

Subscribers,

algo update: I have managed to deploy some high quality GBPJPY algos to the test server. They are high quality so expect them to pass this formality so we can catch larger moves to compensate for times when the EURUSD algos take us out too early due to trailing profit.

Further, I have deploy 20 EURUSD Renko algos to the test server. They're robust on paper but it is hard to believe they will work because the equity curve is a 45 degree straight line. They are doing okay at the moment by entering at logical levels and making pips but a 45 degree straight line EC cannot be believe so we test more.

Deployed 99 standard EURUSD algos to test server. These have already been tested in battle but then put in the warehouse for months. They are producing better results than Diamond at the moment but a larger sample of trades is required more rotation.

Over the coming months the high performance models from test servers will compete for entry in Algo Diamond.

Diamonds is long with buy stops @ 2070 to 2087...hmmm

09:02: Diamonds long with an algo that wins 82% of the time although not mega pips.

Time to think about the sell zone should the price rally higher. I'll be looking for short confirmations between 2107 to 2147. The ideal is a short entry between 2147 to 2174 with a 30 pip stop-loss and close at the end of day.

Hmmmmm...I didn't realise Renkos where so powerful for Robot building! Amazing...truly amazing stuff. No wonder no one discusses it much. Better keep my mouth shut

OMG!!! Renko charts!!!! - hysterics about to kick in!

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Definition of prediction for English Language Learners. : a statement about what will happen or might happen in the future. : the act of saying what will happen in the future : the act of predicting something.

Unless you're taking random bets on the market, you're predicting. It doesn't matter how much technical or fundamental analysis you've done if you take a non-random trade/bet you're making a prediction about a future outcome. You maybe wrong, you maybe right but you're making a prediction.

Long: Sl 10 PT 20. Your prediction is the price will go up by 20 pips and no lower than 10 pips. The prediction maybe based on probabilities: this setup works 80% of the time so I predict in the long run it will continue to work 80% of the time but it is still a prediction.

So unfortunately, you cannot get away with it, you may delude yourself into thinking you are something else but if you're a non-random trader, you make predictions with varying degrees of success. It is truly bizarre anyone in our field could possibly not get this.

Renko: early days but I have to say I'm impressed by the closed and open trades so far. It is crazy!

Only a test server, I'm not that daft!


Algo Diamonds is long from 2054, just one position. We have only has 3 days with trades this week and it is also the first week of January so hoping there is a pick up in successful activity next week.

Equity curve of the 41.72 lot trade. I don't believe for a minute that EC is possible; are such things possible with Renkos? I actually do not have the experience modelling algos with Renkos to know. It doesn't have many parameters and the sample of trades is very high so LARGE degrees of freedom. Fortunately, because of the active trades of the model I'll have enough trades in a week or two to infer production performance. PLEASE NOTE: trades from 5000 are out of sample.

OK. Found a way to quickly discard the "too good to be true" strategy. It hasn't had a losing day since before 2017. So to disqualifing it is now an easy process and no more wishing for the impossible. If by some miracle of the FFGods (known as Reds-tongue in cheek) the model has positive days for the next 10 sessions, I'll have to take it more seriously.

If it does succeed (which is very unlikely) it will be named the FFGod and will be open to 10 traders for free-trade mirror subscriptions...pay it forward etc.

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Well it is out of the short trade for a couple and is now long at 2054. Just waiting for it to fail. It's in profit for the day so far.

MESSAGE TO DIAMOND SUBSCRIBERS:

NFP - High impact news will be released in 1 hour 25m and Diamond still has a long open. It is rare Diamond has trades opened this late so you should consider closing the trade before the news. I will not close the trade on my accounts simply because I allow the portfolio to do it's job but you have a choice and I don't want you to suffer large slippage should the market gap down below your stop-loss.


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Ignore the above, the trade closed at midday. Algos run autonomously so I don't actually do anything to them except leave them to run then post comments here to keep me occupied.

So diamonds had a 0.8 pip loss today. I can live with it.