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AUD/USD

  • #103,581
  • Jan 4, 2018 1:28am Jan 4, 2018 1:28am
Anyone been watching the USD this past year? It's been in a death spiral...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #103,582
  • Jan 4, 2018 1:50am Jan 4, 2018 1:50am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} As much as I am a technical trader, I just can't fathom any fundamental reason to be a buyer of this currency at this level. Anything is possible, but with a 40 pip daily range, it just doesn't seem plausible that the Aussie will move another 500 pips in the next 30 trading sessions, especially after such a strong run up in December. Safe trading
It’s your view sir and I respect your wish to go against the trend. I wish you good luck with that.
Now a little math...
6 weeks equals 30 trading days.
500 pips / 30 days = 16.66 pips average gain upwards per day. This is more than possible.
And now a little bit fundamentals...
You say that you do not see any fundamentals supporting buy AUD/USD.

Factors that push the US dollar down.
1. Trump.
2. The craziness around crypto currencies.
3. The increasing debts and the tax reform in USA.
4. FED being so impatient and persisting hikes despite inflation and wages problems.

Facros pushing AUD up.
1. Commodity prices increase constantly.
2. Asian equities going higher and higher.
3. China and Japan printing good economy results.
4. Solid Australian Economy - longest ever without recession.

And finally the technical analysis go in the same direction with the fundamental analysis.

Look, anybody of us can be wrong. But I am happy to be able to express my view and hopefully this can help the traders who know that the trend is your friend.

Cheers
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #103,583
  • Jan 4, 2018 1:54am Jan 4, 2018 1:54am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} It’s your view sir ....Cheers
is there any reason for USD to go up?
NO MATTER THE SITUATION,NEVER LET YOUR EMOTIONS OVERPOWER YOUR INTELLIGENCE
  • #103,584
  • Jan 4, 2018 2:01am Jan 4, 2018 2:01am
Quoting Trader-Waldo
{quote} is there any reason for USD to go up?
Eventually and hopefully the US dollar will recover. But I don’t see it happening in the nearest future.
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #103,585
  • Jan 4, 2018 3:14am Jan 4, 2018 3:14am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} It’s your view sir and I respect your wish to go against the trend. I wish you good luck with that. Now a little math... 6 weeks equals 30 trading days. 500 pips / 30 days = 16.66 pips average gain upwards per day. This is more than possible. And now a little bit fundamentals... You say that you do not see any fundamentals supporting buy AUD/USD. Factors that push the US dollar down. 1. Trump. 2. The craziness around crypto currencies. 3. The increasing debts and the tax reform in USA. 4. FED being so impatient and persisting hikes despite...
Could it get there, yes - but to me forex is a game of probabilities. Weekly rsi was 38 when price was 75c, it's now a bit over 56. If price goes up another 350 pip with no major corrections weekly rsi might be sitting around 74 with 150 pips to your rough target. Last time weekly rsi on AU got above 74 was 2009. To me that suggests it's not a good probability that it will happen in 6 weeks. If nothing else stands in the way I imagine there would be some resistance around the 8125 high from Sept 2017.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #103,586
  • Jan 4, 2018 3:47am Jan 4, 2018 3:47am
Quoting dab
{quote} ........... If nothing else stands in the way I imagine there would be some resistance around the 8125 high from Sept 2017.
Exactly. There is a sub channel in the weekly bullish channel. This sub channel can stop that crazy bullish move at approximately 0.812x.

Let's see
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  • #103,587
  • Jan 4, 2018 9:17am Jan 4, 2018 9:17am
0.785 is a strong resistance so maybe it won't get over it

but the next target would be 0.79 if it did go over
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #103,588
  • Jan 4, 2018 7:54pm Jan 4, 2018 7:54pm
Quoting SkyrEk
Happy New Year to all traders. Daily Chart Upside to 61.8% and downmove thereafter. {image}

Still applicable
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  • #103,589
  • Jan 4, 2018 8:03pm Jan 4, 2018 8:03pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Still applicable {image}
If it can get to .7800 before NFP tomorrow I'd be a happy individual.
  • #103,591
  • Jan 5, 2018 7:21am Jan 5, 2018 7:21am
trade balance data was bad yesterday and the pair fell down to test 0.7850

if 0.7850 is broken decisively, then i think it can move to 0.7750 and the bullish trend could be over
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #103,592
  • Jan 5, 2018 8:16am Jan 5, 2018 8:16am
Here is my updated view after a couple of fundamental events and adding some components to the chart.
You can see the projections of the anticipated price levels at the breakout points.

Cheers

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #103,593
  • Edited 9:16am Jan 5, 2018 9:06am | Edited 9:16am
Aussie - H4 Chart


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Aussie - H4 2018-01-05.jpg Size: 525 KB
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #103,594
  • Jan 5, 2018 9:17am Jan 5, 2018 9:17am
Aussie - Daily Chart


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Aussie - Daily 2018-01-05.jpg Size: 569 KB
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #103,595
  • Jan 6, 2018 10:21pm Jan 6, 2018 10:21pm
Looking for Aussie to creep up a smidge more before a sell off to support.

Ultimately, we could then head up to 82/3
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDMonthly.png Size: 30 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #103,596
  • Jan 8, 2018 3:11am Jan 8, 2018 3:11am
Short @,7850 ? with potential Risk/Reward Ratio over 3.2!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #103,597
  • Jan 9, 2018 3:19am Jan 9, 2018 3:19am
Quoting fiborek
Short @,7850 ? with potential Risk/Reward Ratio over 3.2!!! {image}
I am long at 0.78200 but maybe I should close while I am in profit
  • #103,598
  • Jan 9, 2018 4:32am Jan 9, 2018 4:32am
Quoting fiborek
Short @,7850 ? with potential Risk/Reward Ratio over 3.2!!! {image}
Hey mate, did you get in at the head and shoulders pattern?
  • #103,599
  • Jan 9, 2018 8:41am Jan 9, 2018 8:41am
Quoting well0143
{quote} Hey mate, did you get in at the head and shoulders pattern?
I can't see had and shoulders on Aussie ... I assume you mean the EURUSD pair
No ... there was no testing @1.2 and pullback to 1.1980 so there was no confirmation for me for long (followed with purple arrows). Chart is still in support area @ 1,1920-1,1960 so Up-move is potential
For me now waiting - I'm Dollar- Bullish on pairs AUDUSD and USDJPY - so not sure about Up-move on EURUSD... But this is my point of view
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #103,600
  • Jan 9, 2018 8:49am Jan 9, 2018 8:49am
Quoting SPeedFANat1c
{quote} I am long at 0.78200 but maybe I should close while I am in profit
Everyone has it's own strategy. Aussie in longterm is in Up-trend so maybe you are right

I saw on Aussie Ascending Channel with divergence on RSI and that was in resistance area so I decided sell AUD against USD
And the nearest support I see @,7735 -> We will see
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