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  • #14,281
  • Dec 30, 2017 12:46am Dec 30, 2017 12:46am
Quoting Davit
{quote} What a bunch of idiots here at FF Somebody most likely from TMS thread dislikes every post here Fibo38 just wrote Oanda and someone disliked it. I have a feeling if I say Good evening same idiots will dislike it as well.Such miserable a-holes
You have a lot of that here.

Quoting Davit
I read constantly in general what traders post and sometimes take mental notes and sometimes I get that Really? I read often "price rejected 34EMA (insert any MA) then went down" No price did not notice 34EMA or any EMA.Market makers who have funds to push price are not placing their orders watching MA's Not happening in real world.The idea of price "rejected" by MA is absurd. Price just happened to hit that MA! Throw in 10 MA's chances are price will hit one of them but means nothing. To understand how price moves please watch MD video again on...
This goes along with your video Davit. Humans often look for things that are not there. It is hard for humans to come to grips with risk and uncertainty. That is why most good humans are terrible traders. A good trading strategy should fit on a 3 x 5 index card with no exceptions to any rule.

https://psychcentral.com/lib/pattern...eed-for-order/
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #14,282
  • Dec 30, 2017 2:39am Dec 30, 2017 2:39am
U're my mannnnnn !!!!! And happy new year
Quoting Davit
Hi guys I finished Dec one of my best trading month perhaps my highest gain this year. Don't have all the stats for the year yet. MT4 updated several times and my data goes back 3months only so have to go through it manually.I am pleased overall anyway average hit 10% or more a month except August which was minor red. Have reasonable DD which I am comfortable to carry over 2018 since I believe positions are still valid Happy New year and I 'll see you guys next year. {image} {image}
not euphoria follower
  • #14,283
  • Dec 30, 2017 8:51am Dec 30, 2017 8:51am
Happy New Year!

Backtest USDCAD H4 June 07 2017. Davit PP in action.

https://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cblv2Gocbj

Cheers
Plan your trade and Trade your plan.
  • #14,284
  • Edited 11:02am Dec 30, 2017 10:50am | Edited 11:02am
GM guys

Read this today from FF member.Not quoting directly because I am not in the mood for discussion.These are my opinions.

"I want to say I never look at fundamentals. What I really mean is I never ever look at fundamentals.
Price tells us where the smart money is going. The biggest financial companies in the world, with the best software, analysts and fastest newsflow, make price go up or down. If price is not going up or down, its because they're not making it. Do we think we are smarter and have better analysis and faster newsflow than the biggest global banks?"

This person is not looking at CPI NFP interest rates,Central Bank statements nothing and he claims everything is in the price.
One of the biggest BS statements I read all the time and is false.Price can drop prior of important news and if news comes out green most often turn around opposite and spike 50-300pips and yes there are lots of alghos programmed to do this.To say price already was showing signs of bull spike is wrong remember price was dropping prior of news..had this person selling he would have been crashed and based on his statement I assume he was not even aware of high impact news.
If the news was exceedingly green such as NFP it can most often create positive sentiment and propel currency to higher demand hence selling it would be not wise but this person would of been in the dark remember he NEVER looks at fundamentals.

Analogy I can give is this.
An artist who knows about human anatomy is producing better drawings ,paintings because he knows the structure under the skin.
An artist who does not is only guessing and the work does not come out well.In the realm of Art if you are drawing painting humans its essential you know not only the skeleton but muscles as well.You will always be sub par artist if skipped learning these.Same in music to be proficient musician there are essential things to know.

To me Trading is balancing act.Its the art of looking both fundamentals and technicals.Please read real traders in Market Wizard books.Its an eye opening what these guys are looking at.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #14,285
  • Dec 30, 2017 11:12am Dec 30, 2017 11:12am
Quoting Davit
GM guys Read this today from FF member.Not quoting directly because I am not in the mood for discussion.These are my opinions. "I want to say I never look at fundamentals. What I really mean is I never ever look at fundamentals. Price tells us where the smart money is going. The biggest financial companies in the world, with the best software, analysts and fastest newsflow, make price go up or down. If price is not going up or down, its because they're not making it. Do we think we are smarter and have better analysis and faster newsflow than the...
What he's saying is a variant of the Efficient Markets' Hypothesis. The problem is, according to the EMH, there should be no traders like Warren Buffett and many others who have made billions upon billions. Fundamentals are obviously important and only a LAZY trader would choose to ignore them. It takes work and most humans shy away from it. Thinking requires effort, and many choose to just follow the herd. Price DOES adjust sometimes abruptly to news events. So not everything was cooked in.
  • #14,286
  • Dec 30, 2017 11:25am Dec 30, 2017 11:25am
Quoting pgr45za
{quote} What he's saying is a variant of the Efficient Markets' Hypothesis. The problem is, according to the EMH, there should be no traders like Warren Buffett and many others who have made billions upon billions. Fundamentals are obviously important and only a LAZY trader would choose to ignore them. It takes work and most humans shy away from it. Thinking requires effort, and many choose to just follow the herd. Price DOES adjust sometimes abruptly to news events. So not everything was cooked in.
I want to make this clear

On this thread you are required to do weekly analyses of news events to be successful trading my method.This is a must.
Over time you will start seeing things you have not seen before.Train yourself to be successful until it becomes a habit.
Informed trader makes better decisions!
Takes 30-1hr on weekend.Do it please.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #14,287
  • Dec 30, 2017 12:05pm Dec 30, 2017 12:05pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I want to make this clear On this thread you are required to do weekly analyses of news events to be successful trading my method.This is a must. Over time you will start seeing things you have not seen before.Train yourself to be successful until it becomes a habit. Informed trader makes better decisions! Takes 30-1hr on weekend.Do it please.
Davit.
Seems to be so many conflicting sources on fundamental analysis. Whats your go to source (s)?
  • #14,288
  • Edited 12:30pm Dec 30, 2017 12:20pm | Edited 12:30pm
Quoting spyderman
{quote} Davit. Seems to be so many conflicting sources on fundamental analysis. What’s your go to source (s)?
Keep it simple

Go to calendar and go over each Red News events and make notes to yourself.Idea is to be aware its coming up and you know some idea about it.
This can influence how you see the market.

Example of my recent post

We have DEC 18 Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes AUD
I bought lots of AUD against NZD last Friday and I anticipate minutes would be bullish hence feel confident on my AN longs.Might buy AU longs as well.
Notice this analyses has nothing to do with pivots or any technical charts this is just on fundamentals how price may move based on my analyses of calendar events.

Weds NZD Q/Q GDP-After election business confidence is low on NZD hence this might print red and I most likely will hold my AN longs
NU may drop significantly and might be good opertunity to buy lower level.

Weds JPY Monetary Policy Statement- neutral nothing new here.BOJ Policy Rate-same BOJ Press Conference-
don't expect much here most likely range trading.


Thurs huge day for CAD-CPI m/m Core Retail Sales m/m
If green this will do wonders for NC and AC shorts. Retail may print green since its holiday season people shop.

Thurs USD Final GDP q/q
This is a mover if comes out green all majors most likely will lose against USD weakest longer drop.Holiday on the corner this is last major news event on USD and market makers may spike all majors.
My philosophy is when there is carnage look for opertunity don't be afraid.
After 30min of this you feel you have a grasp what's coming up and that adds confidence on your trading decisions.
Since we know USD GDP is Thurs would you sell USD weds? Not likely correct? just going over the calendar you start seeing which scenarios you should avoid.Don't sell USD correct? Possible buy AUD...
Idea doing this you start seeing how market shifts and often it shifts around the calendar."

Things may not unfold the way you think about events but it does help example AUD did get stronger and I made good money on AN longs
Idea is not so much being right about events but seeing how events move price and to avoid scenarios that are risky

This weekly going over calendar events is for you to be in tune with pulse of the market.
To me this is what sentiment means recognizing the pulse of the market.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #14,289
  • Dec 30, 2017 2:09pm Dec 30, 2017 2:09pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Keep it simple Go to calendar and go over each Red News events and make notes to yourself.Idea is to be aware its coming up and you know some idea about it. This can influence how you see the market. Example of my recent post We have DEC 18 Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes AUD I bought lots of AUD against NZD last Friday and I anticipate minutes would be bullish hence feel confident on my AN longs.Might buy AU longs as well. Notice this analyses has nothing to do with pivots or any technical charts this is just on fundamentals how price may...

Thanks for your insights
  • #14,290
  • Dec 30, 2017 2:30pm Dec 30, 2017 2:30pm
Quoting spyderman
{quote} Davit. Seems to be so many conflicting sources on fundamental analysis. What’s your go to source (s)?
I'm no expert on this (Lordgbengs and others are much better) ... but I would say it's important to read thru news that report on facts more than opinions. Also, reading the local press and the Central Bank's minutes helps form an informed opinion about where the market might be headed. Of course it's all just probable ... in the following week ANYTHING can happen.

On which fundamentals to follow, if you're short on time (and frankly, who isn't?) I always come "back to basics" and remember that core inflation is what central bankers focus on when they decide on whether and at what pace (communication to influence market expectations matter!) to increase interest rates and, as we know, interest rate differentials are the most important determinant of exchange rates. So definitely look and monitor wage pressures and core CPI.

We read a lot about keeping a trading journal but we don't see a lot about keeping an updated Excel file with evidence of wage pressures // core CPI increasing or moderating. Maybe we ought to give that some thought.

May 2018 bring all of us deeeeeep greeeeeeeeeen!

PS - Let me just add that knowing about holidays (not vacations, there's a difference) in Japan, Europe and Jewish celebrations are also key as you don't want to be trading in a thinner market with one-sided liquidity.
  • #14,291
  • Dec 30, 2017 2:41pm Dec 30, 2017 2:41pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I want to make this clear On this thread you are required to do weekly analyses of news events to be successful trading my method.This is a must. Over time you will start seeing things you have not seen before.Train yourself to be successful until it becomes a habit. Informed trader makes better decisions! Takes 30-1hr on weekend.Do it please.
In the very least, being aware of upcoming events teaches capital preservation.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #14,292
  • Dec 30, 2017 3:05pm Dec 30, 2017 3:05pm
I think the whole inflation concept is overdone these days. All economies are struggling with the same issues. Debt, stagnant wages, underemployment, lack of inflation, etc.

The US raised rates 3 times this year while no one else raised even once and yet the UD dollar had a horrible year verse pretty much every other currency. Imho, the perceptions/expectations of inflation and associated rate hikes coupled with the actual FED "events" are just opportunities for institutional traders and market makers to pay their bills on the backs of retail traders.

I do keep track of fundamentals and related sentiment but the reality is I can't predict the outcome of any news event regardless of which way the numbers print. What I can do is be prepared in advance as far as what price zone is going to be a good place to enter a trade, regardless of which way the news takes price. Fundamentals/news events may the catalyst for price movement, but technical analysis reveals where the best entry/exit points may be.

Just my 2 cent rant.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #14,293
  • Dec 30, 2017 3:19pm Dec 30, 2017 3:19pm
Quoting Expo33
I think the whole inflation concept is overdone these days. All economies are struggling with the same issues. Debt, stagnant wages, underemployment, lack of inflation, etc. The US raised rates 3 times this year while no one else raised even once and yet the UD dollar had a horrible year verse pretty much every other currency. Imho, the perceptions/expectations of inflation and associated rate hikes coupled with the actual FED "events" are just opportunities for institutional traders and market makers to pay their bills on the backs of retail traders....
Very interesting. I agree that we are recovering from a serious financial crisis (it's been 10 years and we're still talking about it). Which fundamental variable would you choose to look at (if not core CPI and wage pressures), job growth? Thanks in advance.
  • #14,294
  • Dec 30, 2017 3:23pm Dec 30, 2017 3:23pm
Take next week that I expect will be dominated by FOMC minutes on Wed and NFP Fri.
Does that mean that we should expect dollar strength leading up to Fri and then possibly a sell off on Fri (on buy the rumor and sell the fact)?

Your input is appreciated on this question, Davit. And others too. Thanks.
  • #14,295
  • Dec 30, 2017 3:25pm Dec 30, 2017 3:25pm
Quoting Expo33
I think the whole inflation concept is overdone these days. All economies are struggling with the same issues. Debt, stagnant wages, underemployment, lack of inflation, etc. The US raised rates 3 times this year while no one else raised even once and yet the UD dollar had a horrible year verse pretty much every other currency. Imho, the perceptions/expectations of inflation and associated rate hikes coupled with the actual FED "events" are just opportunities for institutional traders and market makers to pay their bills on the backs of retail traders....
Sorry if I'm insisting on this important point.
So if I understand correctly, for you news events rattle the can bringing price closer to where you'd want to enter and exit on a technical basis. Is that it?
  • #14,296
  • Dec 30, 2017 4:02pm Dec 30, 2017 4:02pm
Quoting Expo33
I think the whole inflation concept is overdone these days. All economies are struggling with the same issues. Debt, stagnant wages, underemployment, lack of inflation, etc. The US raised rates 3 times this year while no one else raised even once and yet the UD dollar had a horrible year verse pretty much every other currency. Imho, the perceptions/expectations of inflation and associated rate hikes coupled with the actual FED "events" are just opportunities for institutional traders and market makers to pay their bills on the backs of retail traders....
USD reached about a 12 year high around Jan this year from memory on the back of endless overall positive FED expectations.Like leading a Donkey with a carrot on a stick, these rates were long ago priced in before 2017. Not sure if Brexit panic pumped up USD safehaven status further, but if it did, this would have just further stretched the Bullish USD beyond buyers area of interest for 2017.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #14,297
  • Dec 31, 2017 1:59am Dec 31, 2017 1:59am
I can't recall. Are markets open New Years Day?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #14,298
  • Dec 31, 2017 3:44am Dec 31, 2017 3:44am
All happiness and good luck !
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To learn how to swim , you first need to enter the water!
  • #14,299
  • Edited 10:15am Dec 31, 2017 10:02am | Edited 10:15am
Backtest USDCHF H4 Dec 26 2017.

https://goo.gl/8SQBwG


"When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't trading, they're staring at screens and forcing trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business." Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.
Plan your trade and Trade your plan.
  • #14,300
  • Dec 31, 2017 10:46am Dec 31, 2017 10:46am
Quoting pgr45za
Take next week that I expect will be dominated by FOMC minutes on Wed and NFP Fri. Does that mean that we should expect dollar strength leading up to Fri and then possibly a sell off on Fri (on buy the rumor and sell the fact)? Your input is appreciated on this question, Davit. And others too. Thanks.
If it's me, I will going with the fact
All the best for all of you guys on the coming years...
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