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  • #41
  • Edited 10:12am Dec 29, 2017 9:46am | Edited 10:12am
Remember 1.2 is a monster level. Should a price surging north drip towards a monster level? Obviously, we'll have our answer when price goes to 1.2 but currently (as fair as I'm concerned) price is telegraphing: "Too much Turkey, wine and sex at Christmas; I'm tired!" The conviction to zoom through a major level is taken long before the price reaches its destination, price isn't displaying zoom behaviour. Put a gun to my head and ask...what is going on, I'd reply...I am not sure but if forced to give an answer I'd write BULL TRAP. But who knows?

Break out buy stops (not mine...late entrants) triggered...wait


Stops on longs at 1979...wait.

100 wave extension touched confluenced with Pitchfork warning line correction...inside parallel line...wait.

85% probability of next week's close being less than 2085...wait.
  • #42
  • Dec 29, 2017 10:20am Dec 29, 2017 10:20am
Question is, when would I be satisfied this isn't a bull trap. If the price can zoom through 2023 move north by at least 10 pips then retest 2023 which then holds like a soldier of the 300 Spartans. That would certainly be a signal to move long stops to 2019.
  • #43
  • Dec 29, 2017 10:54am Dec 29, 2017 10:54am
Quoting mbrown
from the monthly perspective, I am very surprised 1.2 hasn't been reached this month. The probability of that level being hit was 97% based on statistics since the inception of the EURUSD to date which ultimately points to a VIOLENT sell-off if it isn't reached and a very high chance of January being a bear month but who knows.
Dear subscribers,

I received a few emails today about why the subscribers didn't benefit from the 97% 1.2 monthly probability. I just want to write this was a monthly projection, over 90% probability projections occur once or twice a year. You and I cannot eat waiting for monthly high probability projections. You are subscribed to a portfolio that only trades high probability lower timeframe setups and the aim is to ensure your account grows every month without much equity stagnation. Perhaps, in the future I'll introduce an intra-month portfolio but for now let's focus on account growth.
  • #44
  • Dec 29, 2017 10:57am Dec 29, 2017 10:57am
Quoting mbrown
Question is, when would I be satisfied this isn't a bull trap. If the price can zoom through 2023 move north by at least 10 pips then retest 2023 which then holds like a soldier of the 300 Spartans. That would certainly be a signal to move long stops to 2019.
I suppose the above kind of tells you I expect the price to go to 2023. Sorry for not being more explicit, when reading the market is second nature, one sometimes forgets not everyone is at the same level...yet. In the meantime, you'll have to read between the lines or ask the question.
  • #45
  • Edited 11:31am Dec 29, 2017 11:18am | Edited 11:31am
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10627859#post10627859

Quote
calebfx (https://www.forexfactory.com/calebfx):This goes out to all the ''professional traders'' hope you stop the fuckery and actually learn how to trade in 2018, should be one of your new year resolutions.

And yes this is shot being taken LMAO

I agree with calebfx (https://www.forexfactory.com/calebfx) . The 80-95% trader failure rate is one that cannot not be ignored. An expert on a subject won't give you loads of ambiguity (like so many of the "professional traders"); the expert will tell you with verifiable precision and not rely on the foibles of psychology to win favour, that is, if I give you advice involving 20 different levels above and below price, I can certainly convince you I am correct even if I am wrong and over time you'll buy into it. Be careful out there!

Anyway, eventually...I'll be taking this show to my own password protected subscriber only venue. NO! It isn't about the £70PM...far from it...if I wrote "algorithmic trading Turtle experiment"...would that ring a bell?

I am actually looking forward to the number of people who miss this opportunity...starting to think I'm a sadist...lol Fortunately, the indignity of the recruitment process will be over on the 07/01/18.
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  • #46
  • Edited 11:58am Dec 29, 2017 11:48am | Edited 11:58am
Followable price action (no indies) traders worth following - with caveats - based on historic analysis (ranked by simplicity of setups and return to risk):

1. Angelina (https://www.forexfactory.com/angelina) (Will give credit of skill to others so bowing and scraping may annoy but don't be blindsided.)

2. asgcorp (https://www.forexfactory.com/asgcorp) (gets over excited on streaks and accuracy falls as a result)

3. Ata-Turkoglu (https://www.forexfactory.com/ata-turkoglu) (Invariably closes peaches too early)



I've been doing this stuff for a while!:

Quote
24/11/2017 - Good trading Bulls. I managed to catch the train again (after the short attempt) at 1864 and 1902. Based on the panel price capped at 1.2119 in December followed by strong bear month in January.

So panel suggesting there will be a test, and subsequent failure, of the gap printed in 2014 (2070 - 2119).

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10527720&highlight=gap#post10527720
  • #47
  • Dec 29, 2017 12:14pm Dec 29, 2017 12:14pm
Although he maybe rich...the moral of the story: Use stop-losses, have an edge, don't be a pre-trade hope trader and stay away from high leverage grid. Oh...and don't show your main live account publically...tax nightmares!

Quote
This is crazy thing ever !!!
Just checked this guys and see this,
He started this account 1 month ago for around 100K or something and right now it shows he won 62k+ for this year and will be paying tax for that 62k+ but the real thing is he is in DD for another 62k+ from the 100k original one!

OMG !!!
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10628267#post10628267
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  • #48
  • Dec 29, 2017 12:39pm Dec 29, 2017 12:39pm
As a commercial member I cannot reply to main threads hence these posts:

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This is exactly where I want to go. I think that Neural Networks can be a help while trading.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10628303#post10628303

My view...if you're a well studied technical analysis trader the ROI going down the Neural Network (NN) path isn't worth it. If you're an AI professional who stumbles on trading it is worth it. The best neural network (at least today) is the biological one. Traders need to learn how to control their inner impulses so they don't screw up.

Searching for a technology to blame doesn't fix anything...plus all those technical analysis rules given to you by your technical analysis predecessors, you'll have to create from scratch integrating NN with price. It isn't worth the time or effort if you already have a technical analysis education. That money is better spend on a coach or Psychologist to understand why you fail to follow your own profitable technical trading rules.

Price does what it does...goes to S reverses or breaches etc and we do what we do. Align yourself with price and stop looking for things to ease the burden of something so simple. Master yourself.

I'll elaborate: if you accept "Price does what it does...goes to S reverses or breaches etc and we do what we do." then your focus should really be on price behaviour at S/R not on a can of worms that will suck years of your life away.
  • #49
  • Dec 29, 2017 12:59pm Dec 29, 2017 12:59pm
Quote
A poor blowing 100 buck,
A rich blowing 100k...
I meant this. If losing 100k won't hurt then be with it.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10628355#post10628355

One of the ways you can determine trading experience and prowess. FF is a trading website not a gambling one.

No rich trader that I know would deposit 100K in an account to test a system. Not because they can't afford it but because of the potential sub-conscious impact of seeing a 60-80% drawdown. Levels people..there's levels to this game. Don't allow others to screw with your mental equilibrium by selling the unacceptable as being the norm. If you are relatively new, the protection of your trading psychology should be a preeminent priority. A priority not to be undermined by the apparent wise words of a no due-diligenced stranger.

Due-diligence: if you admire a trader and consider following them...have the presence of mind to watch and analyse 30 of their calls. If the calls are specific and unambiguous it's a start - ambiguous then walk away. The full 30 calls is a must to protect yourself from the weaknesses of the mind from which we all suffer and some know how to exploit. The full 30 is a must.

It's amazing what you'll see.
  • #50
  • Edited 2:08pm Dec 29, 2017 1:28pm | Edited 2:08pm
Time to go party.

Happy New Year subscribers and anyone else reading.


Email response: sorry I don't know if it will gap up or down in the New Year but I'll do a shotgun test:

Shotgun against temple etc:

1. Today's close below 2043 expect gap down;
A. If gap down Looking for buys at 1850 and to take profit at 2040 and 2220 @ SL 50 if entry on confirmation

2. Above 2043 expect gap up;
B. If gap up looking for sell at 2230 and to take profit at 2050 and 1870@ SL 50 if entry on confirmation

If gap expect runaway gap not closing.

A shot-gun call. HNY.

Due-diligence: if a shot caller makes an 80-90% accuracy call but hasn't incorporated it into their trade analysis/call, at best, they don't trust their own statistical analysis...at worst they're actually a wannabe. The same microcosms occur in all areas of risk and danger...stay sharpe.
  • #51
  • Dec 30, 2017 2:12pm Dec 30, 2017 2:12pm
Quoting mbrown
ADDITIONAL SUBSCRIPTIONS WILL END ON 07/01/2018 I didn't account for the amount of email work necessary behind the scenes and I also want the current subscribers to benefit from their first mover advantage. I love first movers!
No more subscriptions. Let's get the 2018 experiment started on the 2nd Jan!!!
  • #52
  • Edited 2:55am Jan 2, 2018 2:40am | Edited 2:55am
EURUSD needs to fall below 2030 within 20mins (before 9am GMT) if it is to reverse. If that doesn't happen expect 2068 then 2095. SL below 2030 on the hour.
  • #53
  • Jan 2, 2018 3:51am Jan 2, 2018 3:51am
Algo Diamonds hasn't opened any trades today. Trades are being sent as market orders not pending orders.

No trades is a tad frustrating especially when one knows where price is heading but this happens in algo trading. We'll have plenty of trades this month so be patient.

I am not willing to place manual trades in an algo portfolio as it would skew the stat's.

The portfolio should make an average of 130 trades a month
  • #54
  • Jan 2, 2018 4:49am Jan 2, 2018 4:49am
Looks like price may reach 2225 this month. Feeling lazy so will go the EURUSD only thread to see if there is any rational and high quality technical analysis to support the 2225 price projection.
  • #55
  • Jan 2, 2018 8:11am Jan 2, 2018 8:11am
85% probability today's close will be less than 2047 2037 continuation of up move is unlikely to occur today.
  • #56
  • Jan 2, 2018 8:30am Jan 2, 2018 8:30am
But if we close below 2037 that actually opens the gates to 1850 (not posting charts to support). However, I'd prefer to see a double top at 2081-2071 then a break of 2037 (or the DT valley) before I'd call for short trades.
  • #57
  • Jan 2, 2018 8:47am Jan 2, 2018 8:47am
70% probability of a higher low this week so any move down is unlikely to be as rapid as the move up.

Am I allowed to make a gut call? Probabilities suggest we are heading for a 1.2 close - at least; I could be wrong!!!
  • #58
  • Jan 2, 2018 9:21am Jan 2, 2018 9:21am
If there is no double top. As soon as valley A is taken out by the blue line, it will be time to enter short. I'll keep an eye on the chart and post it when the condition is true.
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  • #59
  • Jan 2, 2018 9:53am Jan 2, 2018 9:53am
I'm getting ahead of myself because anything could happen BUT:

if we do head towards 1850 then on a time and price basis the earliest we'll get there is the 9th and the latest is the 13th. If we hit 1850 on the 14th or after we may see a much deeper move: 17xx

2037 is the key PIVOT.
  • #60
  • Jan 3, 2018 2:21am Jan 3, 2018 2:21am
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10635450#post10635450

Quote
asgcorp (https://www.forexfactory.com/asgcorp): this is still valid (revised TP) and the only order I have put in so far. flat in GU.

EUR USD pending buy order @ 1995 SL 1975 TP 2140


As normal asgcorp (https://www.forexfactory.com/asgcorp) trade setup was a good one, however on this occasion the buy order needs to be 35 pips higher as conditions have changed.
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