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AUD/USD

  • #103,541
  • Dec 28, 2017 10:46am Dec 28, 2017 10:46am
short from 0.7793..................... s/l 0.7820
The AUD is very overbought and is ready for sharp downmove.
  • #103,542
  • Dec 29, 2017 5:22am Dec 29, 2017 5:22am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} This stup is still valid. As long as the price holds above 0.7730-50 area, AUD/USD is still bullish.
Still intact.
The weekly bullish channel will probably give us 0.83xx by mid February.
Anyway it’s so difficult to make reliable analysis nowadays. The market has changed its nature completely.

Let’s see.
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  • #103,543
  • Edited 6:14am Dec 29, 2017 5:58am | Edited 6:14am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Still intact. The weekly bullish channel will probably give us 0.83xx by mid February. Anyway it’s so difficult to make reliable analysis nowadays. The market has changed its nature completely. Let’s see.
With all due respect, I think another 500 pips north in the next 6 weeks is a bit ambitious for a currency that has an ADR of 40-50 pips.

Regardless of technical analysis, hard to imagine banks, hedge funds, etc will have enough fundamental impetus to push the Aussie to 83 by mid February.

Maybe a ride down the fork to see Mr. Median
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #103,544
  • Dec 29, 2017 6:20am Dec 29, 2017 6:20am
I doubt there will be any significant bearish relief until 79 area
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #103,545
  • Dec 29, 2017 6:29am Dec 29, 2017 6:29am
Quoting nart78
short from 0.7793..................... s/l 0.7820 The AUD is very overbought and is ready for sharp downmove.
stop out..?
  • #103,546
  • Dec 29, 2017 6:30am Dec 29, 2017 6:30am
Quoting Ill-b-back
I doubt there will be any significant bearish relief until 79 area
I'm not saying it will head south right now. It may indeed test 79 again but I certainly wouldn't be a buyer at this level.

In the past 2 weeks gold pushes to 1300, oil pushes to 60. Imho, Aussie only goes significantly higher if commodities continue to lead. For me the path of least resistance eventually will be down

Anyways, safe trading. More than one way to skin a cat
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #103,547
  • Dec 29, 2017 7:19am Dec 29, 2017 7:19am
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  • #103,548
  • Dec 29, 2017 7:23am Dec 29, 2017 7:23am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} I'm not saying it will head south right now. It may indeed test 79 again but I certainly wouldn't be a buyer at this level. In the past 2 weeks gold pushes to 1300, oil pushes to 60. Imho, Aussie only goes significantly higher if commodities continue to lead. For me the path of least resistance eventually will be down Anyways, safe trading. More than one way to skin a cat
Yeah I wouldn't recommend buying either, but 3 bullish weekly candles off the ascending weekly TL is not to be sneezed at.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #103,549
  • Dec 29, 2017 7:50am Dec 29, 2017 7:50am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Yeah I wouldn't recommend buying either, but 3 bullish weekly candles off the ascending weekly TL is not to be sneezed at.
The bullish weeks will continue as long as retailers trade down. Wherever you look at the brokers’ statistics you’ll see how many more traders are bearish compared to the bullish ones. This shows only one thing - people are crazy and around 65% by now trade agains the trend. That shows how low the quality of the average trader is.

around 85% do not know how to trade and 20% of them are extremely lucky if they make some profits from time to time. The rest of them are constantly losing money and feeding the market.

The only way way to stay out of trouble is to stay with the trend.
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  • #103,550
  • Dec 29, 2017 9:47am Dec 29, 2017 9:47am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} The bullish weeks will continue as long as retailers trade down. Wherever you look at the brokers’ statistics you’ll see how many more traders are bearish compared to the bullish ones. This shows only one thing - people are crazy and around 65% by now trade agains the trend. That shows how low the quality of the average trader is. around 85% do not know how to trade and 20% of them are extremely lucky if they make some profits from time to time. The rest of them are constantly losing money and feeding the market. The only way way to stay...
i think they dont trade against th trend. they think that is the trend!
so, when you say "stay with the trend", what you mean? how you determine the main trend?
  • #103,551
  • Dec 29, 2017 9:48am Dec 29, 2017 9:48am
Talk of trend or round the bend
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  • #103,552
  • Dec 29, 2017 9:58am Dec 29, 2017 9:58am
Quoting Hadipour
{quote} i think they dont trade against th trend. they think that is the trend! so, when you say "stay with the trend", what you mean? how you determine the main trend?


Many ways to do this man. The internet is full of trading lessons. I personally use a combination of MA(50) and MA(100) on a timeframe bigger than 1H. Then go to lower TF to determine S/R.

It’s funny when you say that “they think that they trade with the trend”. Don’t they look at the charts and see where the trend goes?!
I mean if look at 5m or 10m chart, it will not tell you much about the trend. Look at bigger timeframes if you want to see where the price is heading to.

Cheers
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  • #103,553
  • Dec 29, 2017 10:22am Dec 29, 2017 10:22am
Quoting entheos
{quote} stop out..?
[attach]IMG_2328.PNG;2615495[/attach
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  • #103,554
  • Dec 29, 2017 10:23am Dec 29, 2017 10:23am
Quoting OpenRoad
{quote} [attach]IMG_2328.PNG;2615495[/attach {image}
Sell limit @7842 for me
  • #103,555
  • Dec 29, 2017 10:23am Dec 29, 2017 10:23am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote}[/b] Many ways to do this man. The internet is full of trading lessons. I personally use a combination of MA(50) and MA(100) on a timeframe bigger than 1H. Then go to lower TF to determine S/R. It’s funny when you say that “they think that they trade with the trend”. Don’t they look at the charts and see where the trend goes?! I mean if look at 5m or 10m chart, it will not tell you much about the trend. Look at bigger timeframes if you want to see where the price is heading to. Cheers
over these years, so many time my 60ma moved over 100ma and i thougth that the pair heading north and saw a sharp 200pip fall!
i think same happens to many of those you called "intermediate traders"
  • #103,556
  • Dec 29, 2017 10:47am Dec 29, 2017 10:47am
Quoting Hadipour
{quote} over these years, so many time my 60ma moved over 100ma and i thougth that the pair heading north and saw a sharp 200pip fall! i think same happens to many of those you called "intermediate traders"
Maybe. But as said, it depends on which timeframe you are looking at. Small timeframes will not tell you anything about the trend. It also depends what kind of trader you are - a scalper, a day trader, a midterm trader or a long term trader. Said that, using only MA is not enough. Actually using MA is not strictly necessary. Top down approach based on your trading style will tell you everything you need to know about the trend.
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  • #103,557
  • Dec 29, 2017 10:58am Dec 29, 2017 10:58am
Good point bro.

KP

Quoting NotAtrader
{quote}[/b] Many ways to do this man. The internet is full of trading lessons. I personally use a combination of MA(50) and MA(100) on a timeframe bigger than 1H. Then go to lower TF to determine S/R. It’s funny when you say that “they think that they trade with the trend”. Don’t they look at the charts and see where the trend goes?! I mean if look at 5m or 10m chart, it will not tell you much about the trend. Look at bigger timeframes if you want to see where the price is heading to. Cheers
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #103,558
  • Dec 29, 2017 12:19pm Dec 29, 2017 12:19pm
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Maybe. But as said, it depends on which timeframe you are looking at. Small timeframes will not tell you anything about the trend. It also depends what kind of trader you are - a scalper, a day trader, a midterm trader or a long term trader. Said that, using only MA is not enough. Actually using MA is not strictly necessary. Top down approach based on your trading style will tell you everything you need to know about the trend.
you r right, i understand your point
so... let s see if The bullish weeks continue next week
  • #103,559
  • Dec 29, 2017 1:30pm Dec 29, 2017 1:30pm
Quoting Hadipour
{quote} you r right, i understand your point so... let s see if The bullish weeks continue next week
Yes mate. Let’s see what happens. There is a sub channel inside that weekly channel, which may stop the move up much earlier at about 0.7970, but the resistance is weaker than the upper line of the main channel.

Let’s see
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  • #103,560
  • Dec 29, 2017 2:14pm Dec 29, 2017 2:14pm
Quoting KeenPips
Good point bro. KP {quote}
Thanks mate. You are one of the traders that I am learning from. Happy new year bro.
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