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The Swamp

  • #13,461
  • Dec 22, 2017 9:42am Dec 22, 2017 9:42am
Quoting gatorinla
an h till L week close.. above 1813 is still bull side on the L week.. caught between 1809 and 1911.. years end getting close.. fundis wise a rate raise usually good for usd.. tax break wise, borrowing =printing. its safe to say the year will close higher than 2016, Q3 closed higher, Month closed higher. last week closed higher. yest closed lower.
Gator.. I agree with you.. I think these drops are just short-term fluctuations.. there is high possibility Euro will close in green in Dec month (>1904) as many other years, ...this comes from me as a Euro bear..
  • #13,462
  • Dec 22, 2017 9:49am Dec 22, 2017 9:49am
thinking short 1882 monday.
have a good weekend.
  • #13,463
  • Dec 22, 2017 9:51am Dec 22, 2017 9:51am
Quoting swing 123
Big number at 1890. Careful bulls.
Next week target around 1650.
  • #13,464
  • Dec 22, 2017 10:03am Dec 22, 2017 10:03am
Quoting swing 123
{quote} Next week target around 1650.
well happy trading then....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #13,465
  • Dec 22, 2017 10:04am Dec 22, 2017 10:04am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} well happy trading then....
Always..
  • #13,466
  • Dec 22, 2017 10:13am Dec 22, 2017 10:13am
Quoting swing 123
{quote} Next week target around 1650.
Weekly Close below 1833 will make it further easy. Gl. Have a good week end.
  • #13,467
  • Dec 22, 2017 10:28am Dec 22, 2017 10:28am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} down 166$ more in 8 min {image}
nice shadow on the monthly. see where we close.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,468
  • Dec 22, 2017 10:47am Dec 22, 2017 10:47am
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} nice shadow on the monthly. see where we close. {image}
Id laugh my head off if the month ended negative.... also cryptos continue to trade over the holidays so i guess its not going to be a silent night afterall
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #13,469
  • Edited 11:35am Dec 22, 2017 10:51am | Edited 11:35am
stops on ucad moved from 2695 to 2740...added some more long at 2746 --edit..stops at 2737..still kickin, regret not taking profit at 1780-90 and waiting for pullback..
  • #13,470
  • Dec 22, 2017 11:15am Dec 22, 2017 11:15am
a new higher week close.. this one is above 1811 ... not a bearish sign to me.. month and year still open.. a higher week close to me means, 19xx will be likely tested.. the month to me still means 1939 likely tested. but the year looks to close higher, so it dont need to do a thing to be bullish on the year.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,471
  • Dec 22, 2017 1:59pm Dec 22, 2017 1:59pm
Eu likley to be bullish next week.
Still looking for a 1940+ test.
The market is thin, we will see...
  • #13,472
  • Edited Dec 23, 2017 1:47am Dec 22, 2017 3:55pm | Edited Dec 23, 2017 1:47am
Here is the latest COT report from the institutions, showing their positions
On 12/19/2017 COT report, the institutions closed longs 7,629 lots from 206K to 198K, and aggressively added shorts 20,036 lots from 92K to 112K
This comes from the week of the FOMC and ECB meetings
as price rallies upwards to high 1863 then backs down to low 1730 , goes up and closes at 1839, a range trade week.
64% long exposure vs short exposure 36%, which 5% decreased in longs and 5% increased in shorts from previous week
Net positions( long) decreased from 113k record high last week to 86k
Gross long and short positions are above 3 months average, and net long positions are below 3 months average

My thought:
I start to see institutions unwind their extreme long positions, since this week is 2nd biggest net decrease in longs this year, with 27,665 lots decease in net longs .
June 20's week was only week bigger than this ,with 34,201 lots decrease in net longs.
I am waiting to see whether they will continue to unwind their longs going forward..

Plus last week net long jumped to record high was purely driven by short-covering not by adding more long positions
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,473
  • Edited 10:33am Dec 24, 2017 9:33am | Edited 10:33am
After staying net short Dollar index since 7/25/2017, institutions start net long Dollar on 12/19/2017
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,474
  • Dec 24, 2017 1:43pm Dec 24, 2017 1:43pm
Hi guys,

not really posting on here too much. But just wondering if anyone is trying to take advantage of the year end interest rate situation in certain pairs. For example having position from Wednesday night to Thursday morning in usdczk would give you over 100 pips positive carry (normal day during the year is like .8 pips)
  • #13,475
  • Edited Dec 25, 2017 12:26am Dec 24, 2017 7:34pm | Edited Dec 25, 2017 12:26am
Quoting loonie-tunes
Hi guys, not really posting on here too much. But just wondering if anyone is trying to take advantage of the year end interest rate situation in certain pairs. For example having position from Wednesday night to Thursday morning in usdczk would give you over 100 pips positive carry (normal day during the year is like .8 pips)
not just year end, even daily the negative swap hurts, its a waste of money on big accounts, ....I don't mind to hold the positive swap positions for days or weeks if necessary ...
  • #13,476
  • Dec 26, 2017 4:56am Dec 26, 2017 4:56am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Watching it also.
looking at ej.
136.5 is close to the yellow level.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYWeekly.png Size: 21 KB
  • #13,477
  • Dec 26, 2017 5:02am Dec 26, 2017 5:02am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} looking at ej. 136.5 is close to the yellow level. {image}
I'll wait for a decent squeeze. Level wise, I'm agreed with yours.
Also got a map myself: (Seeking for a 3800+ pips swing.) Crazy.

Quoting edyraper
{quote} {quote} EURJPY larger tf map. It is in the chopp zone, older missing 137.94 being a magnet, the smaller setup at 116.78 also targets 138.71. Larger bears were waiting for 129.63, it's in the middle of nowhere, likely to chopp between 132-122 for a while. For runners bears wait for 137.94 minimum with possible target of 102.405, bulls wait for 116.78 minimum, it's not on this chart yet, but if no new highs then consider 120.12 also. Till then enjoy the 132-122 range.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Not bad, if someone has been long down from 110ish.
Quoting edyraper
(eurjpy). In larger scale it's missing 137 currently 2.400 pips away, I'll look to build some longs between 110/106 with small leverage. 137 might help EU rise sharply, we might go for 1.27 EU.
Also pretty accurate EU moves.
  • #13,478
  • Edited 5:39am Dec 26, 2017 5:22am | Edited 5:39am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} I'll wait for a decent squeeze. Level wise, I'm agreed with yours. Also got a map myself: (Seeking for a 3800+ pips swing.) Crazy. {quote} Not bad, if someone has been long down from 110ish. {quote} Also pretty accurate EU moves. {image}
I understand your levels.
it could be 116.8 is wanted before 138.7.
But you have both on the chart so you know.
I will be watching lower timeframes.

edit: 4h tf has 137.6 ish as a target. so it might go for 137.9. 132.8 is required.
  • #13,479
  • Dec 26, 2017 6:16am Dec 26, 2017 6:16am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} I understand your levels. it could be 116.8 is wanted before 138.7. But you have both on the chart so you know. I will be watching lower timeframes. edit: 4h tf has 137.6 ish as a target. so it might go for 137.9. 132.8 is required.
Cool, agreed.
Rest is timing etc...
  • #13,480
  • Dec 26, 2017 8:23am Dec 26, 2017 8:23am
Quoting gatorinla
a new higher week close.. this one is above 1811 ... not a bearish sign to me.. month and year still open.. a higher week close to me means, 19xx will be likely tested.. the month to me still means 1939 likely tested. but the year looks to close higher, so it dont need to do a thing to be bullish on the year.
a week to go for 2017. closes still the same.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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