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AUD/USD

  • #103,461
  • Dec 16, 2017 5:08pm Dec 16, 2017 5:08pm
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} I don’t know, but I think that it cannot be fully priced in, as no one can be 100% sure that it will get thru.
my impression was that on last friday's USD rally market already celebrated "all needed signatures".
NO MATTER THE SITUATION,NEVER LET YOUR EMOTIONS OVERPOWER YOUR INTELLIGENCE
  • #103,462
  • Dec 16, 2017 7:02pm Dec 16, 2017 7:02pm
Quoting Trader-Waldo
{quote} my impression was that on last friday's USD rally market already celebrated "all needed signatures".
very true. the tax deal is 90% priced in by now in DXY.

Having said that what I figure is this: EURUSD was annihilated during the run-up in DXY, and both antipods (AU and NU) got well bid. Now I figure this will be a rotation out - EU will get bid / will switch into bull mode and both antipods will likely flip into bear mode once they trigger strong overhead resistance.

Still some upside left though, so only short upon impact intro strong resistance.

PS: EURAUD can flip into bull mode big time - EU up and AU down - EURAUD can run up as much as 400-600 points in 2 weeks. ))) Just saying...
  • #103,463
  • Dec 17, 2017 1:10am Dec 17, 2017 1:10am
I trade AUDUSD exclusively, would be great to participate and also learn about more technical analysis. subscribed.
  • #103,464
  • Dec 17, 2017 5:06am Dec 17, 2017 5:06am
I am waiting for a close above bearish engulf on the weekly and new valleys on the daily before taking longs.

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  • #103,465
  • Dec 17, 2017 8:26am Dec 17, 2017 8:26am
revised load zone is very close to the closing price on Friday. Buy shallow dips near Sunday open (25-35) STOPS @ 7605 target (take) is 7715.
  • #103,466
  • Dec 17, 2017 3:27pm Dec 17, 2017 3:27pm
If you are tracking AUDUSD this week, consider this technical perspective.

On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a resistance trendline (navy colour) from the high of September 8, 2017. Although the order flow is mixed, bears are still very much influential. For much of last week, bulls took price northward but bears restrained the move on Friday. The Friday candlestick printed bearish but we may see some struggle in the attempt of bears to take price further south as price action is in a major support zone. However, there may be a retracement to test the resistance trendline before any bearish turnaround. Should bears succeed in a follow through we may see the 0.74970 area exposed as a target.

On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a resistance trendline (magenta colour) from the high of September 22, 2017. A descending channel was formed when the resistance trendline is aligned with a support trendline from the lows of recent candlesticks. The most recent price action is at the distal or channel resistance line. There, a flag pattern formed on Thursday and early part of Friday last week but has been broken southward. We may expect bears to follow through with a further southward move this week. The 0.75360/0.75103 zone is an immediate support zone and may be attractive to bears as an initial target. Attempts by bulls to push price northward may be hindered by the resistance trendline (navy colour) seen on the daily time frame.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #103,467
  • Dec 17, 2017 6:20pm Dec 17, 2017 6:20pm
My prediction for Aussie next week !!
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #103,468
  • Edited 10:58pm Dec 17, 2017 10:45pm | Edited 10:58pm
Quoting skyhok
My prediction for Aussie next week !! {image}
Agree, I am looking for bear entry, gold is moving sideways, under a bit of sell pressure. Nevertheless, will see London opening how it goes.
luck is a loser's excuse
  • #103,469
  • Dec 18, 2017 6:26am Dec 18, 2017 6:26am
Quoting moodie
{quote} Agree, I am looking for bear entry, gold is moving sideways, under a bit of sell pressure. Nevertheless, will see London opening how it goes.
That was just a bit of fun in the morning, while the actual wave count could go like this:
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Best to your trades!
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #103,470
  • Dec 18, 2017 6:41am Dec 18, 2017 6:41am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} That was just a bit of fun in the morning, while the actual wave count could go like this: {image} Best to your trades!
I didn't touch the pair yet, no real signal yet
luck is a loser's excuse
  • #103,471
  • Dec 18, 2017 3:28pm Dec 18, 2017 3:28pm
Iron Ore at 3 month high @ $74/ton. This would be what is holding AUD above 0.76.
  • #103,472
  • Dec 18, 2017 6:48pm Dec 18, 2017 6:48pm
Quoting redalert
Iron Ore at 3 month high @ $74/ton. This would be what is holding AUD above 0.76.
Nope.. The DXY controls the AU just as it controls most pairs.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #103,473
  • Dec 18, 2017 6:52pm Dec 18, 2017 6:52pm
Quoting Ralffe
{quote} Nope.. The DXY controls the AU just as it controls most pairs.
AU has its own mind, if you review the correlation diagrams, you’ll find that AU keeps swapping and turning. AU is commodity heavy. It is one of the hardest pair to trade.
luck is a loser's excuse
  • #103,474
  • Dec 19, 2017 2:34am Dec 19, 2017 2:34am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} That was just a bit of fun in the morning, while the actual wave count could go like this: {image} Best to your trades!
do you have stops? Cause you will need a 50 point-wide stop for this trade to survive.
  • #103,475
  • Dec 19, 2017 4:31am Dec 19, 2017 4:31am
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} do you have stops? Cause you will need a 50 point-wide stop for this trade to survive.
Moved stop loss to top of (2), potential target near 0.7579
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #103,476
  • Dec 19, 2017 7:31am Dec 19, 2017 7:31am
sold @ 0.7668 , tp: 0.76067
  • #103,477
  • Dec 20, 2017 12:12am Dec 20, 2017 12:12am
Hourly chart.
I still see one more upside to around.7700 region before downmove.
Will monitor price action at .7700 region before i execute any shorts.

Cheers!
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  • #103,478
  • Dec 20, 2017 2:11am Dec 20, 2017 2:11am
Again same opportunity
sold more @ 0.76690
TP: 76067
  • #103,479
  • Dec 20, 2017 2:12am Dec 20, 2017 2:12am
omg. it's about to pop 40-60 points and you fellas still shorting it.
  • #103,480
  • Dec 20, 2017 4:01am Dec 20, 2017 4:01am
Quoting MiracleFX
Can anyone tell me why the USD tanked after a hike? Isn't the opposite supposed to happen? Sure they have not been hitting their 2% target but the GDP growth is solid and feel trying to use inflation in isolation as a gauge of economic health. Why the huge sell off? I'm really confused
To use the terminology used by analysts, the hike could be "priced in". In other words, people already pushed the USD up before the announcement in expectations of a hike. Thus, when the hike was announced, it was the "maximum level" USD could go to because of the hike, hence those who started pushing the price upwards sold/took profit. As such, we have our first selling pressure. The second selling pressure could be due to those who bought after the announcement. This group of people believe that USD will rise after the announcement, and when the profit-taking from the earlier buyers happens, they are caught with their pants down quite literally and thus, this triggers another round of selling.

This is my belief why there was a sell-off. I could be right, could be wrong. Just hope it offers you a perspective.

If you like my discussion, you can find more here.

Thank you.
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