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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #5,801
  • Dec 15, 2017 8:36am Dec 15, 2017 8:36am
33155 is the lowest pit unchanged level (close) of December. An other level to monitor.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,802
  • Dec 15, 2017 9:53am Dec 15, 2017 9:53am
Now here we have 2 options: take out the poor lows going just below 3303 and retrace upside. Or take out those poor lows and continue lower with a serious breakdown towards 31907. For the second option, maybe probably only a dream, we need acceptation below 3303.
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  • #5,803
  • Dec 15, 2017 9:55am Dec 15, 2017 9:55am
Remember that 33155 is current monthly lowest pit close. Acceptation below it needed for any serious continuation downside.
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  • #5,804
  • Dec 15, 2017 10:02am Dec 15, 2017 10:02am
Not over downside 3303 looks too weak to me. I could be wrong but it is already a poor low and we tagged it right now again.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,805
  • Dec 15, 2017 10:04am Dec 15, 2017 10:04am
Quoting Lock
Not over downside 3303 looks too weak to me. I could be wrong but it is already a poor low and we tagged it right now again.
If it will retrace from here without taking out 3303 carry forward this precious info as with any probability we will come back again here soon or later.
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  • #5,806
  • Dec 15, 2017 11:59am Dec 15, 2017 11:59am
Well, weak hands are insisting to sell at half back (around 32215) this is making their efforts extremely risky at this time of the day. In any case I'm off. Current low remains very weak. Have a nice continuation. Best, L.
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  • #5,807
  • Dec 16, 2017 2:59am Dec 16, 2017 2:59am
Quoting Lock
Pit opened with a notable new gap downside from yesterday pit low 3392. Double pass pit gap at 3344-33482. Open level is exactly at 3327 pit inside month high: monitor for acceptation below or above it. 3303 next visible level to correct downside.
Quoting Lock
{quote} If it will retrace from here without taking out 3303 carry forward this precious info as with any probability we will come back again here soon or later.
Quoting Lock
Well, weak hands are insisting to sell at half back (around 32215) this is making their efforts extremely risky at this time of the day. In any case I'm off. Current low remains very weak. Have a nice continuation. Best, L.
Eventually after the third wave of weak selling at 32215 pit session half back (mid level of the session) price managed to went down again to 3303 as anticipated. Then, from just 1 single pip below it it started to rally and took out the weak stop losses of those who sold at 32215 and the session closed exactly at pit inside month high 3227.

A textbook ending for a textbook day: I suggest to reread all the posts from early in the morning as it could be very interesting to evaluate how all this day developed from GB open.

Have a nice weekend. Best, L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,808
  • Dec 18, 2017 1:26am Dec 18, 2017 1:26am
2017/12/18 MONDAY 08:26 +1GMT
WEEKLY REPORT

Last week we saw an attempted breakout below previous inside week balance (below absolute and GB weekly low 33195). And last week failed to close below previous inside one as Friday pit session settle has been at 3327. (Above 33195)

Now, an initial failure does not imply a full complete failure but it is in any case an information to carry forward. And it is also useful in order to draw possible scenarios for upcoming week.

First of all 33195 is the main level in order to evaluate the real success or failure below weekly balance. And because it is also a GB level it will be very important in any upcoming GB session, starting from today. Consequently carefully evaluate acceptation or rejection below this level.

Scenarios:

  1. in case of acceptation below 33195 we could imagine that last week failure was not so clear and possibly a new serious attempt downside could be performed.
  2. in case of clear rejection below 33195 we could imagine the confirmation of last week failure below inside week balance: so balance rules will apply and the next natural direction will be the opposite side of the weekly balance. In this case 35382.
  3. we could remain in balance above that balance low without testing it in any way. Waiting for new changes.

Now, having said that here are some daily considerations:

  1. last GB session was very elongated and price left upside a lot of anomalies. Plus 2 back to back poor highs left by Tokyo and previous pit session around 3446.
  2. This same session spiked downside before preUS open and the spike base is at 3409. Monitor GB open if it will open below or above this level as a first sign of conviction upside or downside.
  3. Current price is below Friday GB session low 33623: so a new possible gap downside could occur. In this case monitor for preservation of it in which case odds will be in favor for continuation downside (during GB session)

Other main levels in this price zone are:

  1. 33393 last mid term move downside half back.
  2. 3327 inside month pit high.
  3. 33652 inside month GB high.
  4. 3402 inside month absolute high.


For upcoming GB session also note that last GB close and lowest GB close for December is currently at 3312: monitor for acceptation or rejection below it after GB open.

Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,809
  • Dec 18, 2017 6:54am Dec 18, 2017 6:54am
Lock, do you moderate or suspend trading around the holidays?
TULKAS
  • #5,810
  • Dec 18, 2017 11:22am Dec 18, 2017 11:22am
Quoting Tulkas
Lock, do you moderate or suspend trading around the holidays?
More often than not, yes. And this is due to the general lack of participation of the first days of the week. But it also relies upon market conditions. If I saw something particularly interesting I could be active as in any normal trading day. Also, generally, the first days of the week are the most indecisive of the week while at the opposite I noted over time that the more interesting and profitable day to trade (I'm speaking about cable and about my personal experience and specially in the last years) is Thursday.
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  • #5,811
  • Dec 19, 2017 2:06am Dec 19, 2017 2:06am
GB gapped higher from yesterday GB session high 33463. Gap rules apply.

Note yesterday GB close 33065: we have to get acceptation above it to continue any higher.

34182 yesterday pit high is poor and weak at the same time as it is also a perfect tag of pre US session high. Above it we have the cluster of highs at 3446 level.

Downside we left a poor low at 3303 level (is also a tag made Friday by the pit session so it is weak too.)

Overall we are in a very weak environment. Most important levels are the same as yesterday:

  1. 33393 last mid term move downside half back.
  2. 3327 inside month pit high.
  3. 33652 inside month GB high.
  4. 3402 inside month absolute high.

Plus 3444 as we are not so far from it right now. 3397 is composite poc.

Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,812
  • Dec 19, 2017 2:15am Dec 19, 2017 2:15am
Quoting Lock
GB gapped higher from yesterday GB session high 33463. Gap rules apply. ..... Most important levels are the same as yesterday: 33393 last mid term move downside half back. 3327 inside month pit high. 33652 inside month GB high. 3402 inside month absolute high. Plus 3444 as we are not so far from it right now. 3397 is composite poc.
3402 inside month absolute high tagged at the pip for now. As for 33096 we need acceptation above it for any serious continuation upside. If not the direction will be towards 3303 zone. But balance around 3397 is not excluded.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,813
  • Dec 19, 2017 3:24am Dec 19, 2017 3:24am
Quoting Lock
GB gapped higher from yesterday GB session high 33463. Gap rules apply. Note yesterday GB close 33065: we have to get acceptation above it to continue any higher. 34182 yesterday pit high is poor and weak at the same time as it is also a perfect tag of pre US session high. Above it we have the cluster of highs at 3446 level. Downside we left a poor low at 3303 level (is also a tag made Friday by the pit session so it is weak too.) Overall we are in a very weak environment. Most important levels are the same as...
New GB gap upside filled. Now we need acceptation back inside yesterday GB session (below 33463) for any continuation downside.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,814
  • Dec 19, 2017 3:27am Dec 19, 2017 3:27am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 3402 inside month absolute high tagged at the pip for now. As for 33096 we need acceptation above it for any serious continuation upside. If not the direction will be towards 3303 zone. But balance around 3397 is not excluded.
Note that we got rejection both above 3402 and 33096. So for now we could have liquidation towards 3303 or balance. Note anyhow that 3402 is a perfect tag so by definition is a weak level. Carry forward this info if something will go wrong downside.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,815
  • Dec 19, 2017 3:30am Dec 19, 2017 3:30am
33652 is one of our main levels: it is the GB high of the inside month. So monitor for acceptation or rejection below it if reached.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,816
  • Dec 19, 2017 4:07am Dec 19, 2017 4:07am
Quoting Lock
{quote} New GB gap upside filled. Now we need acceptation back inside yesterday GB session (below 33463) for any continuation downside.
Quoting Lock
33652 is one of our main levels: it is the GB high of the inside month. So monitor for acceptation or rejection below it if reached.
We got acceptation back inside yesterday GB session range (below 33463 2 m30 periods closed) but we still have not tested GB inside month high 33652.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,817
  • Dec 19, 2017 4:08am Dec 19, 2017 4:08am
Quoting Lock
{quote} {quote} We got acceptation back inside yesterday GB session range (below 33463 2 m30 periods closed) but we still have not tested GB inside month high 33652.
Testing it now: watch out. We need acceptation below 33652 for any serious continuation lower.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,818
  • Dec 19, 2017 4:17am Dec 19, 2017 4:17am
Price took out overnight Tokyo low 3361: now we need acceptation also below it. Continue to monitor for acceptation 33652 as it is the main level here for GB session.
If no acceptation below 3361 and 33652 we could retrace to 3397. In case of acceptation we could continue lower aiming to 3303 zone. Or come into balance.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,819
  • Dec 19, 2017 5:00am Dec 19, 2017 5:00am
Inside period balance rules apply.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,820
  • Dec 19, 2017 5:05am Dec 19, 2017 5:05am
Note 3 attempts below 33652 and below 3361 failed for now. No acceptation below them for now. Weak period high at 33778 half back (weak hands sold there). Weak Gb high at 3402. Monitor for possible break out from inside period.
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