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Price Action Theory

  • #61
  • Dec 12, 2017 4:49pm Dec 12, 2017 4:49pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{image} Following is a discussion of price action. 1 and 2 are relative swings. (swings are the most basic price structure and understanding them is really the path to understanding price) 3 is an unconfirmed swing because price does not go on to make a higher high after. This failure is important. 4 is outside gap bar and WRB that closes above several previous smaller bars. It establishes the buy line. 5 is where buyers defended positions. Many would call this support. 6 is a WRB gap that decisively closes below the buy line. 7 is where price retested...
I call this hindsight chart analysis. Lets do some forward analysis! You can bring your forks if you wish.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #62
  • Dec 12, 2017 4:51pm Dec 12, 2017 4:51pm
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} This stage of the game I know figurative speaking "do not put you hand on a hot stove you will burn your hand" Me = Why will I burn my hand? and put my hand on the stove to find out if there is any value to that warning So that vain is above my pay grade. As to 25 indie's with 25 signals I can only go to what I know. That will be time frames - H1 to MN. (Many month's ago you gave sound advice concerning M1 - M30 which payed off. thanks again jmn) How many time's are those time frame's in agreement. Almost always at first glance, yet there...
If price is going up, then buy, going down then sell. If it were that simple there would be no counter parties to our trades I don't think. I wish it were that simple. If you want to post a chart or two, feel free. My way is not the only way.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #63
  • Dec 12, 2017 4:55pm Dec 12, 2017 4:55pm
As stated earlier a chance to add on will be at that hammer if/when it fails. Sitting through the bear flag on a dead market at the moment. Probability of range expansion is 94% on the weekly and 100% on the monthly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30.png Size: 149 KB
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #64
  • Dec 12, 2017 5:34pm Dec 12, 2017 5:34pm
Inserted Video
  • #65
  • Dec 12, 2017 7:00pm Dec 12, 2017 7:00pm
While we wait.

Inserted Video
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #66
  • Dec 12, 2017 7:41pm Dec 12, 2017 7:41pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I call this hindsight chart analysis. Lets do some forward analysis! You can bring your forks if you wish.
The point of the post was to illustrate an example of describing and articulating price action. Can you clearly articulate the purpose of every indicator on your charts and how it relates to price action?
  • #67
  • Dec 12, 2017 8:02pm Dec 12, 2017 8:02pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} The point of the post was to illustrate an example of describing and articulating price action. Can you clearly articulate the purpose of every indicator on your charts and how it relates to price action?
Of course I can, but that would require the inquirer to have looked at the template. One question, one answer.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #68
  • Dec 12, 2017 8:35pm Dec 12, 2017 8:35pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Of course I can, but that would require the inquirer to have looked at the template. One question, one answer.
So I don't understand the template. Please articulate and describe so I and others can understand.
  • #69
  • Dec 12, 2017 8:44pm Dec 12, 2017 8:44pm
He can't cause indicators follow price until he understands that he remains stuck
  • #70
  • Dec 12, 2017 8:52pm Dec 12, 2017 8:52pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30.png Size: 100 KB


I'll use a 30 min chart for some forward analysis.
1 is a reaction or retracement swing in a downtrending market.
2 is an expansion of price although still a reaction/retracement swing in a downtrending market. It roughly doubles out 1 and in and of itself represents opportunity.
3 is the handle of the fork and also demonstrates a rough upper border of where sellers were in control until expansion at 2 occurs.

A,B,C is the H,L,H of the fork and C occurs only after price begins to descend from C.

3 becomes the center line of the median line (fork) after C forms. Price has a high probability (80%) of reaching the median line which it does in the case.
The blue lines represent the top of a gap to the downside.
B - price descends below B confirming C as a swing high. This new low represents opportunity as there is an expectation that price will continue doing what it always does which is swing.
Price is swinging upwards again towards the gap and it is likely it will reach and fill this gap. This represents opportunity also but the R:R is unfavorable.
If price does reach the gap another opportunity may present. But we must wait and see.
  • #71
  • Dec 12, 2017 9:04pm Dec 12, 2017 9:04pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} So I don't understand the template. Please articulate and describe so I and others can understand.
25 indies on this template, what do you not understand? Just ask. I am not trying to be some autocrat of a thread so I claim I invented something. Tell me what on my template you do not get and I will explain it. BTW, great forward analysis. Let's see how it works.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #72
  • Dec 12, 2017 9:05pm Dec 12, 2017 9:05pm
Quoting Divergence
He can't cause indicators follow price until he understands that he remains stuck
Elaborate please.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #73
  • Dec 12, 2017 9:30pm Dec 12, 2017 9:30pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} 25 indies on this template, what do you not understand? Just ask. I am not trying to be some autocrat of a thread so I claim I invented something. Tell me what on my template you do not get and I will explain it. BTW, great forward analysis. Let's see how it works.
You asked the question best: "25 indies on this template, what do you not understand?" My answer is... I don't understand anything and I don't think anyone else does either.

I have delineated what I feel is the difference between indies and PA and have undertaken an attempt to provide an explanation and chart examples.

Your charts represent a myriad of indies (25 as you say). I don't think it is unreasonable for a trader to be confused by this vast array of indies obscuring price action.

It seems you could provide some basic clarification.
  • #74
  • Dec 12, 2017 9:36pm Dec 12, 2017 9:36pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{image} I'll use a 30 min chart for some forward analysis. 1 is a reaction or retracement swing in a downtrending market. 2 is an expansion of price although still a reaction/retracement swing in a downtrending market. It roughly doubles out 1 and in and of itself represents opportunity. 3 is the handle of the fork and also demonstrates a rough upper border of where sellers were in control until expansion at 2 occurs. A,B,C is the H,L,H of the fork and C occurs only after price begins to descend from C. 3 becomes the center line of the median line...
Price has closed the gap as suspected earlier. I don't know what price will do here but perhaps price action will reveal. Let's see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #75
  • Dec 13, 2017 4:10am Dec 13, 2017 4:10am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} You asked the question best: "25 indies on this template, what do you not understand?" My answer is... I don't understand anything and I don't think anyone else does either. I have delineated what I feel is the difference between indies and PA and have undertaken an attempt to provide an explanation and chart examples. Your charts represent a myriad of indies (25 as you say). I don't think it is unreasonable for a trader to be confused by this vast array of indies obscuring price action. It seems you could provide some basic clarification....
Well, I am not sure what to tell you. None of these indies obscure PA. Price is clearly visible unless you are epileptic. Perhaps if you just follow along for awhile it will be clear. Maybe Andrews pitchforks is what your mental acuity works best for. This template gives a lot of information and it may be too much to process for many. This market has become two sided again. I will place a long with a close above the high volume Bullish engulfing bar.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30.png Size: 154 KB
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #76
  • Dec 13, 2017 5:01am Dec 13, 2017 5:01am
Stop on the trade is 1733.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30.png Size: 151 KB
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #77
  • Dec 13, 2017 6:24am Dec 13, 2017 6:24am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} If price is going up, then buy, going down then sell. If it were that simple there would be no counter parties to our trades I don't think. I wish it were that simple. If you want to post a chart or two, feel free. My way is not the only way.
Well jmn it is.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ertre.PNG Size: 52 KB

The more you simplify the method the less possibility to make a mistake because you missed that one signal out of 25.
Winston you are not using price action as well.
We all use a form of price action.

Said before: Price action is the reaction of traders on the movement of price.

Think about it.
Price is never right.
It is always seeking the right price. That is why it is not one straight line and we as trader wil not exist.

Every watched a flock of birds? How they swirl, wave with no leader that mankind has yet to find.
Inserted Video

We the trader are the same, we swirl, wave, dive to where price has been and never really find it .
  • #78
  • Dec 13, 2017 6:42am Dec 13, 2017 6:42am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Well jmn it is. {image} The more you simplify the method the less possibility to make a mistake because you missed that one signal out of 25. Winston you are not using price action as well. We all use a form of price action. Said before: Price action is the reaction of traders on the movement of price. Think about it. Price is never right. It is always seeking the right price. That is why it is not one straight line and we as trader wil not exist. Every watched a flock of birds? How they swirl, wave with no leader that mankind has yet to...

The video is absolutely breathtaking!
.... laughing all the way to the bank
  • #79
  • Dec 13, 2017 7:03am Dec 13, 2017 7:03am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30b.png Size: 105 KB

Price has tested x2 the sellers. Buying into strong sellers is rough. After the tests a WRB provides the "tell". A return to this WRB area provides opportunity. Sellers have been in control of this EURUSD 30 minute downtrend.
  • #80
  • Dec 13, 2017 7:30am Dec 13, 2017 7:30am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Well jmn it is. {image} The more you simplify the method the less possibility to make a mistake because you missed that one signal out of 25. Winston you are not using price action as well. We all use a form of price action. Said before: Price action is the reaction of traders on the movement of price. Think about it. Price is never right. It is always seeking the right price. That is why it is not one straight line and we as trader wil not exist. Every watched a flock of birds? How they swirl, wave with no leader that mankind has yet to...
Interesting view, thanks for sharing it!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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