Trading the NZD Trade Balance | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

NZD trade balance 0 replies

NZD Trade Balance 12 replies

Nzd Trade Balance 26 replies

usa trade balance cad trade balance 6 replies

NZD Trade balance 2 replies

Trading the NZD Trade Balance

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 25, 2006 1:36pm Sep 25, 2006 1:36pm
Looking at that NZD trade @ 22.45 GMT. Have you ever heard the old saying "buy the rumor and sell the fact"? Well, to me, this looks like a classic set up for this. The NZD/USD pair closed at around 2605 on Friday and as of 20.00 GMT, it's sitting at about 2700. The NZD/JPY pair has also gone up about 90-100 pips since the Sunday open. The value of the + number in the trade balance report has already been priced in. So, what is a likely scenario for this trade?

It looks like the report will come out NZ+ and if it does what may happen is a small (12-15 pip) spike up, followed by a retrace that could go anywhere, followed by another spike up, the height of which will be determined by how much the carry trade drives the price. The interest rate players have a lot of control in this market; they're gonna look to take their profits, then push the price back up, because the value of their interest rate trades is that much greater, the higher the value of NZ goes.

If you want to play this trade and i'm assuming that the report will be NZD+, here are a couple of suggestions:

1. Conservative: what for the spike and the retrace, then buy after the retrace has reversed 15-20 or so pips.

2. Aggressive: What for the spike, then sell after about a 10 pip drop. Ride that down as far as you can. When it starts to go back up, close your position. Wait another 15-20 pips or so, then buy again. Good luck

NewstraderFX
  • #2
  • Sep 25, 2006 2:08pm Sep 25, 2006 2:08pm
I may take the super conservative approach and watch it unfold. Thanks for the insights.


Quoting NewstraderFX
Looking at that NZD trade @ 22.45 GMT. Have you ever heard the old saying "buy the rumor and sell the fact"? Well, to me, this looks like a classic set up for this. The NZD/USD pair closed at around 2605 on Friday and as of 20.00 GMT, it's sitting at about 2700. The NZD/JPY pair has also gone up about 90-100 pips since the Sunday open. The value of the + number in the trade balance report has already been priced in. So, what is a likely scenario for this trade?

It looks like the report will come out NZ+ and if it does what may happen is a small (12-15 pip) spike up, followed by a retrace that could go anywhere, followed by another spike up, the height of which will be determined by how much the carry trade drives the price. The interest rate players have a lot of control in this market; they're gonna look to take their profits, then push the price back up, because the value of their interest rate trades is that much greater, the higher the value of NZ goes.

If you want to play this trade and i'm assuming that the report will be NZD+, here are a couple of suggestions:

1. Conservative: what for the spike and the retrace, then buy after the retrace has reversed 15-20 or so pips.

2. Aggressive: What for the spike, then sell after about a 10 pip drop. Ride that down as far as you can. When it starts to go back up, close your position. Wait another 15-20 pips or so, then buy again. Good luck

NewstraderFX
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #3
  • Sep 25, 2006 3:26pm Sep 25, 2006 3:26pm
Quote
[22:27 NZD/USD: Star Performer Ahead Of NZ Trade Data] Sydney, September 26: The
NZD was by far and away the star performer in the past 24 hours due to
widespread buying that was attributed to heavy short covering as well as fresh
long being put on. The NZ trade data will be out in a few minutes (22:45 GMT)
and there is a rumour that it will be much better than the minus 715 MLN NZD
expected. Traders say that the rally late in the US session back towards 0.6700
when the USD was firming against the major currencies was due to the NZ trade
talk. Key resistance in the NZD/USD is found at the 61.8 fibo of the
0.7200/0.5930 move at 0.6710 and a clear break above that level would be a very
bullish event and target the Feb 10 high around 0.6835. There is a risk that if
the NZ trade number is close to the minus 715 forecast, the NZD/USD could fall
hard or even if the number does come in better that expected at 500 mln NZD it
could end up being a "buy the rumour/sell the fact" event. The NZD/USD trades
0.6690/95. [email protected]


i'd try to catch a down move with a small lot only. IBFX's widen spread is difficult to play with now.
  • #4
  • Sep 25, 2006 3:28pm Sep 25, 2006 3:28pm
Ill try to catch the spike and TRY to do the retrace. Not sure if there will be retraces forthis one.
  • #5
  • Sep 25, 2006 3:28pm Sep 25, 2006 3:28pm
I'm going to place a sell stop at about 66.85 and if it plunges, I'll make a few pips.
More of a fun play.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #6
  • Sep 25, 2006 3:29pm Sep 25, 2006 3:29pm
Quoting hunter101
Ill try to catch the spike and TRY to do the retrace. Not sure if there will be retraces forthis one.
4 previous charts show no retrace; no retrace also on other NZ news.
  • #7
  • Sep 25, 2006 3:31pm Sep 25, 2006 3:31pm
Yep BK, that is what i figured from teh caps on "try." i doubt there will be one, but if there is, ill try to catch it. Worth giving up 1 or 2 pips to see if i am right. 10 min, hearts beating faster!


GL on this one guys!!
  • #8
  • Sep 25, 2006 3:33pm Sep 25, 2006 3:33pm
I am keeping my finger crossed for a spike up and I hope it continues to climb
Fdisk Please I just want a few pips. Is that too much to ask?
  • #9
  • Sep 25, 2006 3:35pm Sep 25, 2006 3:35pm
Well I plan toi trade it. I will report my results. I probally plan to short before the news is released.
  • #10
  • Sep 25, 2006 3:44pm Sep 25, 2006 3:44pm
Well that went ok. I went short before the news at .6690 and I bought it back at .6684 for +6 pip gain.

I could have rode it down more, but the price was moving up and down and I figured best to go ahead and take profit, it could go either way. In hind sight though I wish I looked at the numbers on my trade the news platform before I closed.
  • #11
  • Sep 25, 2006 3:46pm Sep 25, 2006 3:46pm
seems like there is a retrace..

oh well 1 pip! it did not reach my TP so I closed it manually for 1 pip profit (it should have been more pips... the broker closed it at 1pip)
  • #12
  • Sep 25, 2006 3:49pm Sep 25, 2006 3:49pm
really bad NZD news....or am I reading the numbers wrong



DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #13
  • Sep 25, 2006 3:56pm Sep 25, 2006 3:56pm
Ouch I got spanked
Fdisk Please I just want a few pips. Is that too much to ask?
  • #14
  • Sep 25, 2006 4:02pm Sep 25, 2006 4:02pm
A non trade for me-didn't fit the scenario I was looking for...was thinking about selling when it got to 65, then saw it move up again quickly. Not enough movement for me.
  • #15
  • Sep 25, 2006 4:14pm Sep 25, 2006 4:14pm
My 1 pip profit trade dissapeared!? All orders for the last hour dissapeared also.
  • #16
  • Sep 25, 2006 4:27pm Sep 25, 2006 4:27pm
Got fucked over. The spread widen high too much that if filled me when i straddled. Next thing i knew it i was down 200 bux in fraction of a blink! I called MBT and they will look into it. I was pretty pissed that i lost, since the price never went above .6998, it was the sread that made it that much. Fucken gay. Well, that ishow i feel. It filled me at .6998 (with ST at .6996), but it was sold PLUS the spread that made me lose 200 bux. The customer service dude had a huge attitude thinking he was right, he even said that i should only lost 20 bux, but when i lost 200, because of the spread which made me lose, which he was suprised and kinda felt wrong when he saw that the spread was the reason why i lost. Go figure, 2 pips rather than 20 pips, how can the spread do that? This happened to me too durin the home sales trading earlier this morning! Gay.



There is a retrace. Retraces noramally take a while for it to happen. Like about 20 minutes to HOURS. If it werent for me losing my cool, i would have entered the retrace at .6975 and exited at .6985-90.

To sum up, all of my trades would have been profitable, it was my broker who messed up and filled me with their widening of spreads. Bad exp for my first day live trading.


Lesson for me today: Make straddle bigger with small Stop Loss (which i do now). With the thought of there being another trade in the future.
  • #17
  • Sep 25, 2006 4:35pm Sep 25, 2006 4:35pm
faded that puppy 6692 punched out 6675" whew"
  • #18
  • Sep 25, 2006 4:45pm Sep 25, 2006 4:45pm
NZDUSD @ 6718 now...is it getting exhausted and time to retreat back?
  • #19
  • Sep 25, 2006 4:59pm Sep 25, 2006 4:59pm
Quoting wallym
NZDUSD @ 6718 now...is it getting exhausted and time to retreat back?
Yep, well at least i hope so, the kiwi has already tested the resistance trendline, it's seems difficult to pass through it.
Trading is a long and a short story.
  • #20
  • Sep 25, 2006 5:03pm Sep 25, 2006 5:03pm
Quoting hunter101
Bad exp for my first day live trading.
oh my, you traded a news report on your first live trade? LOL that seems really risky to me for some reason. hunter you should really be trading for at least a few months before you try this kind of thing. but consider yourself lucky for learning so quickly
Relax and be happy.
0 traders viewing now