Yellow spots = buyers
Yellow rectangle = target
I'm buying dips until that target
Yellow rectangle = target
I'm buying dips until that target
COT: The precious data ignored
- #6,743
- Dec 8, 2017 6:51am Dec 8, 2017 6:51am
- Joined Aug 2017 | Status: Just a little Aussi Battler | 4,571 Posts
- #6,744
- Dec 8, 2017 6:52am Dec 8, 2017 6:52am
- | Joined May 2009 | Status: Fight until we die | 1,114 Posts
Hi all! First time poster here! This might be a stupid question so bare with me: but the NFP numbers came out BETTER than expected (hence better for USD??) - "Shouldnt" the EUR depreaciate in value against USD?
The wages (which is the more important now) missed...although not by much we would have seen a better reaction if they beat expectations. Inflation is the key for rate hikes, they go hand in hand. Wages is a key indicator of inflation...wages go up to keep up with expected increases in the prices of goods (CPI).
Either way, both the Euro and the Dollar are fundamentally bullish...so you get unpredictable price action in the middle - shorter term....aka ranging markets. What you're talking about is the initial reaction though, and in this case you are correct- but you discounted wages...when that was the actual driver for today. I did mention this at the beginning of the week. I hope that helps you!
{quote} canceled 1.1878, close to 1.1725....needs some juice from NFP Keep an eye on wage inflation!
- #6,746
- Dec 8, 2017 7:08am Dec 8, 2017 7:08am
{quote} Only for the initial reaction- for NFP and Wages you have to look at the big picture. Look at the trend.....NFP, unemployment, and wages have all been trending up which would be bullish for the dollar due to expections of rate increases in the future The wages (which is the more important now) missed...although not by much we would have seen a better reaction if they beat expectations. Inflation is the key for rate hikes, they go hand in hand. Wages is a key indicator of inflation...wages go up to keep up with expected increases in the prices...
Alright thanks for explanation
That being said, December rate hikes are already going to happen regardless of any other factors and investors are largely looking past it at this point. ATA, Antoe, and traderview hinted at this as well in a buy the news sell the fact statement
The dot plot, new FED chair, and tax hikes for next year is important now
more on that next week...
The dot plot, new FED chair, and tax hikes for next year is important now
more on that next week...
- #6,751
- Dec 8, 2017 10:06am Dec 8, 2017 10:06am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,300 Posts
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #6,753
- Edited 2:53pm Dec 9, 2017 11:15am | Edited 2:53pm
Interesting price action on friday, here's some analysis:
Daily: Week closed with a doji after an impressive run down (this is the only time I'll consider candles as reliable). Suggestive of a reversal. Also, the daily trendline is very shallow. More on that below.
4H: Still in a downtrend until proven otherwise. At this point it would have to break 1.1814 to confirm a reversal. Unless.... a new swing point is created by another run down. The market made one last push to 1.1774 at close negating what would have been a swing point at 1.1772 from the previous 4H candle, this is a subtle but significant clue. While I think that we are at a reversal, I expect another push down. Not sure where it will end, anywhere from a new low to something just below where we are at now. 1.11780-90 could be a reasonable short, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it....
1H: Had a pretty strong uptrend friday, then went sideways through the hourly trendline as the market faded. Sideways movement, not much to see here.
15M: Same as hourly.
Putting it all together: At this point I see two things that need to happen. First, one last run down to establish a short term upward reversal. Second, a swing on the daily chart to confirm a larger reversal down (or not, we could continue up). The shallow daily trendline is suggestive of a bull flag setting up, we will need a swing to establish a true downtrend on the daily. This will all happen North of where we are at, so my bias is currently long consistent with the weekly and monthly charts.
Edit: My game plan for where we are at now is to wait for the uptrend to resume on H1/15M, and trade the short upon breakdown of the 15M up trend (1.1780ish). Assuming it goes down at all, I will exit the short with a break of the newly formed H1 downtrend (or failure to form a H1 downtrend) and depending on what it looks like on the 4H, be looking for a long position at that point.
My .02 cents, good luck to all this week.
Daily: Week closed with a doji after an impressive run down (this is the only time I'll consider candles as reliable). Suggestive of a reversal. Also, the daily trendline is very shallow. More on that below.
4H: Still in a downtrend until proven otherwise. At this point it would have to break 1.1814 to confirm a reversal. Unless.... a new swing point is created by another run down. The market made one last push to 1.1774 at close negating what would have been a swing point at 1.1772 from the previous 4H candle, this is a subtle but significant clue. While I think that we are at a reversal, I expect another push down. Not sure where it will end, anywhere from a new low to something just below where we are at now. 1.11780-90 could be a reasonable short, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it....
1H: Had a pretty strong uptrend friday, then went sideways through the hourly trendline as the market faded. Sideways movement, not much to see here.
15M: Same as hourly.
Putting it all together: At this point I see two things that need to happen. First, one last run down to establish a short term upward reversal. Second, a swing on the daily chart to confirm a larger reversal down (or not, we could continue up). The shallow daily trendline is suggestive of a bull flag setting up, we will need a swing to establish a true downtrend on the daily. This will all happen North of where we are at, so my bias is currently long consistent with the weekly and monthly charts.
Edit: My game plan for where we are at now is to wait for the uptrend to resume on H1/15M, and trade the short upon breakdown of the 15M up trend (1.1780ish). Assuming it goes down at all, I will exit the short with a break of the newly formed H1 downtrend (or failure to form a H1 downtrend) and depending on what it looks like on the 4H, be looking for a long position at that point.
My .02 cents, good luck to all this week.
What do you say about this, guys ? {image}
When evaluating a potential head and shoulders, look for MACD divergence between the L shoulder and head.
Your inverted H/S from the EUR/USD chart:
No divergence.
An example from the 4H chart (hasn't played out yet, used to demo the MACD factor):
So using the indicator in this way, the 4H example is much more likely to play out.
- #6,756
- Dec 9, 2017 9:16pm Dec 9, 2017 9:16pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Reading the TAPE | 2,389 Posts
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
- #6,757
- Dec 10, 2017 12:44am Dec 10, 2017 12:44am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,300 Posts
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #6,759
- Dec 10, 2017 9:25am Dec 10, 2017 9:25am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,300 Posts
Focus only on what truly matters!
