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Do we need Artifical Intelligence in trading?

  • #61
  • Dec 4, 2017 2:58am Dec 4, 2017 2:58am
If any of you non-believers think you are so intelligent, go take this Chinese medical exam and tell me how you do

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchin...t_34362656.htm
  • #62
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:03am Dec 4, 2017 3:03am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} we are slower and kinda inaccurate in analyzing the possibilities. Ai is faster... that's it! you still need a "brilliant" mind to program it.
If I dump 30 years worth of GBPUSD of Elliot Wave patterns, all dow theory patterns, all significant fibonacci level, all market profile value areas and points of control, etc etc. I do this for 1m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 60m, 240m, daily, weekly and monthly. Then I say, "HeyYou my man, analyse this and produce 70-80% accurate forecasts once a minute" naturally if you manage to stay sane you'll struggle so I obviously agree with you.

At this juncture AI is simply a man-made tool. If we ever reach the point of Transcendence/AI sentience then obviously things will be different. However, my only interest is making money using the technology which I initially started to explore in the 90s and to actively use in the mid-2000s.
  • #63
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:04am Dec 4, 2017 3:04am
Quoting jdieieh
{quote} You are putting equal sign between AI development and increase in computational power. But that is not the case.
No. You are putting words in my mouth. Have a re-read.
  • #64
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:05am Dec 4, 2017 3:05am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} Of course AI performs better, it's fast and accurate. but it cannot say "what if I do this" by its own. all the variables are predetermined.

"what if I do this"

It can, that is the area of AI reinforcement learning.

Quoting jdieieh
{quote} You made a theory... now show me supporting evidence. Ideally refer to research within last 10 years. Otherwise we are talking about shape of clouds, everyone sees what they want to see... So far I have shown practical, working, improving examples of (embryo) NAI surpassing or nearly surpassing human abilities. And as a opposing argument I am given opinions. In this case it is not even debate.... but then what one would expect from forex forum...
Your point does not negate HeyYou's point. His point would naturally lead to the point you are making.
  • #65
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:11am Dec 4, 2017 3:11am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} "what if I do this" It can, that is the area of AI reinforcement learning.
yep, what I mean is that it works on historical data.
  • #66
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:11am Dec 4, 2017 3:11am
Quoting jdieieh
We are talking here about actual intelligence.
Well not really in fact. The word intelligence comes from the latin intelligere = understand. Intelligence is not the ability to solve a problem but to understand why a problem worth been solved. Turing test will be passed the day that is the computer which asks quesions to the human. lol
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #67
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:16am Dec 4, 2017 3:16am
Fellas, I didn't mean to kill the thread! I just noticed a potential bluffer taking the discussion to nowhere. Keep up the healthy discussion because it is interesting to read.

>>> Trading
  • #68
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:17am Dec 4, 2017 3:17am
Quoting HeyYou
but it cannot say "what if I do this" by its own. all the variables are predetermined.
Every learning algorithm boil down to estimate a probability distribution. So essentially estimating all the possibilities of "what if I do this".
I don't understand what you mean by "all the variables are predetermined". For a leaning algorithm everything is allowed to be a random variable.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #69
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:20am Dec 4, 2017 3:20am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Every learning algorithm boil down to estimate a probability distribution. So essentially estimating all the possibilities of "what if I do this". I don't understand what you mean by "all the variables are predetermined". For a leaning algorithm everything is allowed to be a random variable.
Don't worry, I don't understand it either...

WHAT I really mean is that Ai can indeed say "what if I do this", but it cannot say "why should I do this".
  • #70
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:25am Dec 4, 2017 3:25am
Quoting HeyYou
but it cannot say "why should I do this".
Absolutely. That's why the term "artificial intelligence" is a bad term usually replaced by "machine learning" and "statistical inference". The computer doesn't ask itself the questions to learn something. It only searches a model that fits it data.

Chinese M.D bot can solve the problem "what's the disease given the symptom" but it can't ask itself "why shall I heal the patient?"
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #71
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:28am Dec 4, 2017 3:28am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Absolutely. That's why the term "artificial intelligence" is a bad term usually replaced by "machine learning" and "statistical inference". The computer doesn't ask itself the questions to learn something. It only searches a model that fits it data. Chinese M.D bot can solve the problem "what's the disease given the symptom" but it can't ask itself "why shall I heal the patient?"
Yeah, but who knows, maybe one day robots will be intelligent.

I HOPE NOT!
  • #72
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:28am Dec 4, 2017 3:28am
Quoting CindyXXXX
if you had 10 different numbers how many different combinations could those numbers produce? If you can code that then there is no need for a human brain to trade...
3628800
I see no point writing a code to solve such a trivial combinatory problem.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #73
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:33am Dec 4, 2017 3:33am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} Yeah, but who knows, maybe one day robots will be intelligent. I HOPE NOT!
Yep the answer to "why shall I heal the patient?" would probably be "Yes after all. WTF should I?"
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #74
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:34am Dec 4, 2017 3:34am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote}Chinese M.D bot can solve the problem "what's the disease given the symptom" but it can't ask itself "why shall I heal the patient?"
Reinforcement learning? Can do this given a triage medical scenario.

Quote
Application on Reinforcement Learning for Diagnosis Based on Medical Image ... Stelmo Magalhães Barros Netto1, Vanessa Rodrigues Coelho Leite, Aristófanes Corrêa Silva, Anselmo Cardoso de Paiva and Areolino de Almeida Neto

Quote
Machine Learning: The Future of Healthcare....Puneet Gupta

Quote
Reinforcement learning in models of adaptive medical treatment strategies...Dr. Robert Durham Vincent
  • #75
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:40am Dec 4, 2017 3:40am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Yep the answer to "why shall I heal the patient?" would probably be "Yes after all. WTF should I?"
What if WE are actually robots, and we were created by other robots. LOL
  • #76
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:44am Dec 4, 2017 3:44am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} What if WE are actually robots, and we were created by other robots. LOL
Actually some scientists have confirmed there is something like a 75% probability we are actually products from the future living a virtual type reality

Inserted Video
Time hides Nothing
  • #77
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:48am Dec 4, 2017 3:48am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Actually some scientists have confirmed there is something like a 75% probability we are actually products from the future living a virtual type reality https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxdBUXQfpUg
And there's an even greater probability (according to the white coats) we are actually a program running on a quantum computer somewhere.
  • #78
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:57am Dec 4, 2017 3:57am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} And there's an even greater probability (according to the white coats) we are actually a program running on a quantum computer somewhere.
A computer program analyzing itself... maybe we are in debug mode.
  • #79
  • Dec 4, 2017 4:04am Dec 4, 2017 4:04am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} A computer program analyzing itself... maybe we are in debug mode.
Genetic Programmating does that so some extends. But it does so by minimizing some given loss function. It can't find the loss function by itself.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #80
  • Dec 4, 2017 4:05am Dec 4, 2017 4:05am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} huh? but my thoughts are so important i don't understand https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJLfCBBcZAo
I was being serious and wasn't taking the p*ss:

http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20160...may-not-matter



A good tune!
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