What works, and what doesn't

Risk off.... Stocks down 125! What might you look for related to currency moves?

How I define risk off... Stocks are down 125.. Traders want the safety of cash.. not risky stocks!
Some currency is risky.. some is "safe"
generally the more risky the currency.. the higher interest it pays.
The safer the currency the less Interest it will pay.

Risky currency's.. All emerging markets currency's (which I don't trade)
Historically higher yields... higher interest rates
AUD- highly dependent on china and global economy (sells iron to china)
NZD - highly dependent on china and global economy (sells a lot of dairy products to china)

Low yields, interest rates
chf - negative yield
jpy - negative yield
euro- near low yield
gbp- low yield

Middle of the road .. USD

Generally If stocks are down huge... Odds increase for market to favor the lowest yield.
What trades might i be looking for? buying a low yield / and selling a high yield.
some of my favorites to trade in risk off.
Sell Aud/jpy sell usd/jpy sell buy eur/aud

Exceptions:
if gold and copper are going up as stocks go down. Aud may go up too. this means market is running to gold and other metals.. And aud sells a lot of Iron metal.

CAUTION:
Market structure and price action always come first. I must have a technical reason to trade, with small risk.
Nothing is 100%, it only increases the odds.
This is just one of the many odds I'll consider....
DO not just Take a blind trade just because stocks are down. Factor in all other odds first.

i looove this chart, looks simple

and this one too, it looks awesome, it ignite another simple ideas, thank you!

Volatility- Increase your odds, Wait for good conditions.

Volatility is size of candles. Low volatility = very small candles.
If you look on the 30m chart and see a bunch of 3 pip 30 mins candles.. Volatility is too low..
You want market to be moving more then 4-5 pips an hour... probably minimum 7-10 pips hour. For a good trade.
if volatility is too high, your risk increases.. Thus you must trade small size.
Look volatility levels your comfortable with to place your trade.

Too low and will take forever to get even 10 pips... and will probably reverse every 5 pips just to drive you nuts!
too high and a bad trade can get really bad really fast.
Find your comfort level... and wait for the market to do as you want.
you can't force it, butyou can always wait for better conditions to come along.

Hint: best to look at at least 30 min chart too see volatility conditions. Also look what this session has done past few days.. If asian session always slow for your pair, don't trade asian session. Volatility usually changes at new market opens.. Example London open.

To be a volatility trader... you must have volatility! How much? Enough to make a profit from!

Don't fight hard fights!

Area's of heavy liquidity aren't easy pips...
Don't fight batters that are better left to the big boys.
Always be looking for thin area's of trading to take advantage of..
Can area's of heavy liquidty break? YES. But the odds get reduced for you taking a harder trade.
Don't be first one trying to be a hero trader by fighting the heavy trading area
Let the odds be as high in your favor as they can be!

Bloody, please do not get offended by my words. Not here to fight.

Trendlines work big time, mate...

If I were you, I would edit post no.1 in such a way, explaining that I (you) cannot trade TLs. There is a specific simple way of using TLs and it always works, on the top of all the fake signals generated, in a first place.

As you have mentioned it already - the solution is simple...
- Maybe you do not know how to flip?
- Maybe you do not know how to draw TLs?
- Maybe trandlines should not be reclining or maybe they should?

You need to get to the 10,000 failures to get it right. Maybe you have not tried enough, yet?

Many things works and much aren't. You need to obtain much skills and knowledge to become successful trader. You also need to focus on the emotions and shouldn't flow away with the emotions like the greed and the anger.

another red day in the markets dow -90.... A/J at lows E/A at highs.... Low yield currency doing good, high yields doing bad.. as discussed a few posts ago. post 262

What Session is most profitable?

For me I trade Asian and London.
USA session often the biggest moves, but that doesn't mean I should force myself to trade it.
A lot goes on in USA usually... us pre-market opens.. Then usually some data, Then stocks open... Then London closes.
That's a lot of volatility changes that can occur pretty quickly.
Plus you can get both USA and Europe news breaking which doubles the risk.
With volatility constantly changing, its hard for me to get a trade in.
Trade the session that you personally understand the best. For me Asian and London only!
Its a little calmer, Less pips, But way more profitable.
Pick the time of day you personally connect with the most, and don't force yourself to be a master of everything.
Pick one thing, and get really good at it! The pips will come, when you do this!

Never Chase a move.. EVER! How the market works.
Always buy into selling... and sell into buying (at the right time)

Lets say price goes up 120 pips and you miss it. The only trade you should consider is a short... Or wait for a pullback.
You must buy when people are selling... and sell when people are buying to make a profit and get a good trade.
This is very important that you always do this. Its when you get the best deals!
The market currency markets usually don't go up and up like stocks or bitcoin. They are designed to differently.
Mainly stocks go up and up because there is a constant flow from peoples paychecks into the market for retirement.
After a big move up... if you try to buy a currency... often there will be no room left for any profits.

Don't chase the market and get a BAD DEAL!
This chart doesn't cover entry.. Only When price is too high to chase and your not getting a good deal.
As you see best Trade is to buy into strong selling. Not buying into buying, or chasing a move.


Follow this rule of 1. Never chasing price and 2. Buying into strong selling. And your trades will have the most potential!

Great thread bloodpoodle

everything you have said in the thread I have found to be true...... and have adapted my trading to conform to those observations.

You have a good way to put it in words that most can understand............ because I have experienced it first hand -- it all resonates as I read it.

thanks for posting your insights and hope you will continue to post

Low Risk Entry zones in a range...

Controlling your risk is most important in trading. As a trader its about the only thing you can control.
You see a range with some strong sellers and some buyers. Where can you enter for small risk?


You can't enter a buy anyplace near the sellers until they have failed.. If they haven't failed your risk goes up!



Wait till the sellers fail.. Then enter with tight risk...
Or enter at bottom of range.. also tight risk.
Entering a trade at middle or top of range before the break out is horrible risk...
You don't know if the sellers are gonna slam it back down or not!
Always think tactically about where you can Risk the least possible!

I approached making heaps of procedures and endeavoring to join them together with an end goal to enhance both gainfulness and consistency. Subsequent to taking in a considerable measure about the wrong approach to make models I began adapting more insights and the right approach to make models that didn't prompt overfitting. It required a long investment since show creation the correct way requires significant investment and isn't especially simple, in addition to I needed to do everything myself and had a long way to go. Everything considered I presumably centered excessively time around the system improvement part of things, which isn't so critical as how you join your techniques.

Beware of Low volatility

Trading is really about greed and fear.
Lately A/U hasn't been moving at all.. Lots of 7 pip 4H candles.
There is no greed and fear on the smaller time frames. just 3 pips up 3 pips down every hour.
With out volatility there is no greed and fear to trade off .. Its dead!
Don't fall in love with one pair... If its dead! Move on to something that has opportunity.

No Volatility= no opportunity= no greed/ fear

If your a Big player you need strong buyers to sell into. BITCOIN CRASH!

If see bitcoin. go from $19,000(on some exchanges) to $13,000 in a few days.
All the early BITCOIN miners and investors with tons of coins.. Needed strong buying to unload to.
You can't unload thousands of coins in sideways or down market.. You'll crash the price.
But if you have strong upwards market... with lots of buyers... Its the perfect time to sell your huge hoard of coins to all the willing late buyers.

So if your the big guy.. You need buyers to sell.. and sellers to buy from.
Same goes for any market, including FX.
Learn to spot the big players selling after a huge up day and go for the ride!

I think, it’s very much easy to make money during the thin liquidity session and ripped liquidity is header since there have so many counter trend movements!

How to spot a good level...
Good levels don't come when price is flat... They come after strong buying/selling...
When you see strong buyers.... then price drops... Thats a level to watch..

This level a seller is selling every pop up! How interesting!



you need strong buying for a strong sell... Learn to love it!
As strong buyers come in.. a bigger fish is the seller..
only way for the big fish to get the massive orders he needs is their to be
a ton of buying. he will gobble up all the buy orders taking the opposite side.


* above pic should say ARROWS.. typo

Hello my friends, I am completely new to this forum, but not to trading I am curious to see if anyone else uses the same trading srat as mine. I learnt it myself over the course of going through every single currency pair charts stating from 2014. It has proven to be very profitable for myself and I am pretty shocked as that no one really has the same strat as mine b/c it's so simple . So it goes like that

First, I Identify the key levels on the charts using s/r, fib, trendline etc. In other words I want to find levels of confluence
Second, I Identify in which type of market I am trending,sideways, stalling and look at whether big announcements could be coming up and change current sentiment (I want to avoid that)
Third, I Use a combination of volume based indicators and momentum indicators I want to find weakeness or strength in the price at key levels. So let's say price is trending up and goes through a key resistance, I then wait for it to make make a last kiss (retouch the resistance point) and by doing so my indicators confirm a clear hidden divergence, (A/D, MACD make an extreme low at the retouch but prices do not go through) I then place a buy order of a few lots and I am usually right. I can put a tight stop loss (just bellow the resistance) and if I'm right I get to ride the trend.

Anyone has a similar strategy ? We could discuss with alot more details

Doing exactly what everyone else is doing (even though the decorations are slightly different) and expecting a different result clearly dosen`t seem to work.