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The Cat & Dragon - GJ Free House

  • #101
  • Nov 27, 2017 12:47am Nov 27, 2017 12:47am
Stopped out. Leaving my desk till later.
  • #102
  • Nov 27, 2017 12:50am Nov 27, 2017 12:50am
I'm trading Dax today, but here's my GJ H2 chart, with the main S&R, and I think it can go anywhere between these two today, with, I reckon, a stronger possibility of it breaking down to the downside than north. If it does move up from here, then I have some MA resistance at 870 or so.
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  • #103
  • Nov 27, 2017 1:03pm Nov 27, 2017 1:03pm
Bullish trend just started. All JPY pairs to be going up from here. strong rally to upside.
  • #104
  • Nov 28, 2017 5:25pm Nov 28, 2017 5:25pm
Quoting rvanscho
It might test this low. {image}
Right on the money.
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  • #105
  • Nov 28, 2017 5:31pm Nov 28, 2017 5:31pm
Quoting cat
That's the key...go with the flow, not against it! {image}
but sometimes it's hard to see the flow, especially around London open, from what I've observed thus far taking trades 40 or so minutes after the London open saves me from getting all tangled up in the trap the big boys placed to catch us. Maybe that's the fakeys ? somedays I find DAX moves up or down without much nuisance while some days it's better to take time off until 2 hours into London. But then again nothing seems to be certain. My brain is exploding on the amount of information it has to process
...
  • #106
  • Nov 28, 2017 11:36pm Nov 28, 2017 11:36pm
Quoting Piquant
{quote} but sometimes it's hard to see the flow, especially around London open, from what I've observed thus far taking trades 40 or so minutes after the London open saves me from getting all tangled up in the trap the big boys placed to catch us. Maybe that's the fakeys ? somedays I find DAX moves up or down without much nuisance while some days it's better to take time off until 2 hours into London. But then again nothing seems to be certain. My brain is exploding on the amount of information it has to process
Recognizing when to enter a trade and when to stay out, and having the patience to do so, is the key requirement for successful trading. I cannot put it more succinctly than that.
  • #107
  • Nov 29, 2017 6:01am Nov 29, 2017 6:01am
I have 15,010 MA resistance on my H8 chart. It could be very strong. If broken, then the next resistance level I have is around 15,170 on the Daily chart, which, if it can get there, is potentially very strong.
  • #108
  • Nov 29, 2017 6:23am Nov 29, 2017 6:23am
Watch this
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  • #109
  • Nov 29, 2017 6:57am Nov 29, 2017 6:57am
For a longer range view, GJ is on course for the weekly 200ema again, especially now that the 100sma has come round beneath the price to add to the support. How quickly it gets there though, if it gets there, is another question.
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  • #110
  • Nov 30, 2017 1:52am Nov 30, 2017 1:52am
We have reached daily R2 of 151.53

Will we go to R3 today?

We have also just crushed through weekly R3 of 151.10
  • #111
  • Nov 30, 2017 2:49am Nov 30, 2017 2:49am
Quoting cat
I have 15,010 MA resistance on my H8 chart. It could be very strong. If broken, then the next resistance level I have is around 15,170 on the Daily chart, which, if it can get there, is potentially very strong.
153 it reached, so close enough. Will this hold?
  • #112
  • Nov 30, 2017 3:16am Nov 30, 2017 3:16am
I think it will hold, but this is only my view and I could be totally wrong.

We are in today's 2nd phase and normally we would achieve 3 phases in a run up.

My definition of phases are:
1st phase: first slope is not so steep
2nd phase: is steeper slope
3rd phase: is steepest and last phase

If I could get my screen shots working, I could illustrate

Normally we have 3 phases (90% of the time) in equities; and I note that in forex that happens in about 50% of the time. (ie 3 phases)

Big boys are presently taking out our stops. ha,ha
  • #113
  • Nov 30, 2017 3:29am Nov 30, 2017 3:29am
Didn't hold?
  • #114
  • Nov 30, 2017 3:32am Nov 30, 2017 3:32am
Quoting LetsTrade
I think it will hold, but this is only my view and I could be totally wrong. We are in today's 2nd phase and normally we would achieve 3 phases in a run up. My definition of phases are: 1st phase: first slope is not so steep 2nd phase: is steeper slope 3rd phase: is steepest and last phase If I could get my screen shots working, I could illustrate Normally we have 3 phases (90% of the time) in equities; and I note that in forex that happens in about 50% of the time. (ie 3 phases) Big boys are presently taking out our stops. ha,ha
Time will tell. As I said, the Daily MA I based my potential resistance on, is very reliable, and in the position it is in will usually stop the price and send it back down, at least temporarily before picking up support for another leg up. If you're already short, then I'd hold at BE if you have enough pips in the bag. If you have no position, then, a pullback to form a lower high, which could come soon, may well provide a short entry. If you're hanging onto longs, then good luck!
  • #115
  • Nov 30, 2017 3:43am Nov 30, 2017 3:43am
Pullbacks very often pull back to fibs, so I'd run your fib from that last high @ 132 on a small tf such as the 1 or 3m, and watch particularly the 61.8% and the 76.4%, but also the 50%.
  • #116
  • Nov 30, 2017 3:53am Nov 30, 2017 3:53am
Or you can run your fib from the high if the lower highs fibs are broken, because if the price is not going to go higher, it'll probably be one of the fibs that will hold it, unless of course it double tops, or, goes higher, but creates diversion with MACD....lots of things to anticipate
  • #117
  • Nov 30, 2017 4:11am Nov 30, 2017 4:11am
Yes. Fibs do help, just got remember them. I found on the short runs 70,7% retracement seems to be a favorite; and on the bigger runs 50% and 61,8%
  • #118
  • Nov 30, 2017 4:16am Nov 30, 2017 4:16am
Quoting LetsTrade
Yes. Fibs do help, just got remember them. I found on the short runs 70,7% retracement seems to be a favorite; and on the bigger runs 50% and 61,8%
76.4% is the highest I use. Just colour code them, then you'll know exactly which ones are which, and also obviously, pre-set the ones you use so that when you pull the fib across, they are there for you.
  • #119
  • Nov 30, 2017 4:20am Nov 30, 2017 4:20am
Fibs also work best when they fall on other areas of potential S&R such as pivots, tend lines, MAs etc. So right now I'm looking at the 3m 100sma @ 15,120, which is just below the 76.4% taken from the lower high. See what the price does if it gets there.
  • #120
  • Nov 30, 2017 4:29am Nov 30, 2017 4:29am
I think 138-150 is the crucial area to watch now it this is not going to push higher.....atm price being held by the 61.8% taken from the high.
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