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The next step after reaching broker lot size limit

  • #141
  • Nov 27, 2017 1:59pm Nov 27, 2017 1:59pm
Quoting TheMaxx
{quote} 4 losing trades at 26.2% doesn't blow your account.
You can't go broke betting 26.2% of your account on every trade no matter how many losing trades you have (in theory) but you get my point
  • #142
  • Nov 27, 2017 2:56pm Nov 27, 2017 2:56pm
Quoting DemoForever
{quote} You can't go broke betting 26.2% of your account on every trade no matter how many losing trades you have (in theory) but you get my point
right.
in theory.
but in forex theory -as per the fine prints- your losses can exceed your deposits. ( unless you trade with a bucketshop, then you losses likely exactly equal your deposits)
you get my point
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #143
  • Nov 27, 2017 3:09pm Nov 27, 2017 3:09pm
Quoting DemoForever
{quote} The probability of a system with a 65% win rate having a losing streak of 4 trades in a row is 51%! Based on 50 trades taken! Just saying.
I've had 5 losing trades in a row a few times. But that in itself is irrelevant.
  • #144
  • Nov 27, 2017 3:59pm Nov 27, 2017 3:59pm
Quoting BigOldFella
{quote} I've had 5 losing trades in a row a few times. But that in itself is irrelevant.
You say that, but if you have 5 straight losses trading your 1.4 mil account, you will be down over 1mil.
  • #145
  • Nov 27, 2017 4:19pm Nov 27, 2017 4:19pm
Next step would be grateful and enjoy what you've gain. Seeing chart on private island perhaps?
Jakarta Trader. Trade with reasonable % target
Monthly withdrawal Profit This Month: -$139
  • #146
  • Nov 27, 2017 5:48pm Nov 27, 2017 5:48pm
Quoting DemoForever
{quote} You say that, but if you have 5 straight losses trading your 1.4 mil account, you will be down over 1mil.
Up until today that £1.4m was down to £750k. Big losses are fine because 65 out of 100 are big wins.
  • #147
  • Nov 28, 2017 1:35am Nov 28, 2017 1:35am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} again?? we had this topic already, there is not one true very good signal service. most who say are reffered to this and do marketing for them. but anyone has different opinions. if your opinion is correct, then you think signal services are stupid people (maybe there are some and exist and you are lucky), who like to give signale and earn some small money against they could same time manage money, and win extrem big, when they have this good results they show in signale services all the time. but because they dont have this results in reality...

I am not sure I can follow you. Let's say you're able to set up some fancy model of the market which let's you achieve the stats that BFO is claiming his provider can.

You say you shouldn't tell people about but trade it yourself and win big. BUT: First of all you can't leverage indefinitely, something that works on CFDs will not work when you invest many millions via an ECN - at some point your own impact becomes too large, even in forex. So maybe you can keep on investing CFDs and earn some additional money by helping out others?

Secondly, as long as you're still small and have no impact at all, it might actually help to have other people trade synchronously with you, precisely because this very impact will help you generate the desired move. Of course it would be best of all others come a few seconds late...
  • #148
  • Nov 28, 2017 1:36am Nov 28, 2017 1:36am
Quoting DemoForever
{quote} You say that, but if you have 5 straight losses trading your 1.4 mil account, you will be down over 1mil.
And? What's the problem? Psychology? OMG, I'm below a million?
  • #149
  • Nov 28, 2017 4:51am Nov 28, 2017 4:51am
Quoting profitfarmer
dukas has a point there. i have yet to live long enough to see a hedge fund turns down managing money, and instead start to offer signals for a flat monthly fee. neither financially, nor execution wise doesnt make any sense. from the signal buyer also there is the inherent danger that not being able to place all the signals, the results can very wildly differ from the source. no one, remotely semi-serious, with at least a few1000s $ will opt to go signal way, if looking to earn longer term.
Hedge fund????? It's 3 blokes sitting in an office in Panama or Equador or somewhere.
  • #150
  • Nov 28, 2017 5:00am Nov 28, 2017 5:00am
Quoting BigOldFella
Currently about 26.2% of my account balance per trade is risked. The lot size is based on account balance and success rate of the last 40 trades. It ranges from 25% up to just under 30%. I have some big losses but over the 2 years I've been live I'm running at about a 65% success rate.
How do you calculate this percentage figure? Could you give an indication of the size of your winners relative to your losers (a ratio is fine, you don't need to give £ amounts).

I've been plugging your figures into the monte carlo spreadsheet found in this thread, and hitting F9. It seems like a lot of luck is involved - in one run you could be flat after 100 trades, the next run you could be up £2m.
  • #151
  • Edited 5:54am Nov 28, 2017 5:20am | Edited 5:54am
Quoting TheMaxx
{quote}How do you calculate this percentage figure? Could you give an indication of the size of your winners relative to your losers (a ratio is fine, you don't need to give £ amounts). I've been plugging your figures into the monte carlo spreadsheet found in this thread, and hitting F9. It seems like a lot of luck is involved - in one run you could be flat after 100 trades, the next run you could be up £2m.
Kelly Criterion

  1. b is the net odds received on the wager ("b to 1"); I work this out by ratio of the average winning trade (after expenses) / the average losing trade (after expenses)
  2. p is the probability of winning (currently 0.65)
  3. q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p (currently 0.35)

So say the average win is 40 pips and the average loss is 50 pips (after taking out spread, commission and swap) then
b = 45/50 = 0.9
p = 0.65
q = 0.35

so f=0.26 or 26%

  • #152
  • Nov 28, 2017 7:14am Nov 28, 2017 7:14am
Bigoldfella

Can you recommend me to the best signal service you know ?


I can't win on forex. Need a signal service but been scammed a number of times.

Kind regards,


Goose
  • #153
  • Nov 28, 2017 7:38am Nov 28, 2017 7:38am
Quoting goose4
Bigoldfella Can you recommend me to the best signal service you know ? I can't win on forex. Need a signal service but been scammed a number of times. Kind regards, Goose
its signal providers, chances that you will be scammed are very high or even extrem extrem high. many brokers are in forums to make marketing for their services, so also many signal services and managed accounts. look at mq5 market (book there signals by the monthly fee), its nothing more then a signal provider, that you get your signals copied to others. but at least you have results, and you are then own problem then by judging this results wrong. so you dont need to trust somebody on forum who talks about results from whatever signal service, the chance you get many wrong informations or marketing information or even scam informations are very high.
by signale plus copy at least people cant fake/cheat so muchg against signal services. reasons number 1 why someone would use signal service: you can very easy manipulate any results you present on your website and show extrem better results then it was, no signal service will have the results in reality.

but important: learn the basics of trading, or you cant judge the mq5 market providers correct. many use tricks to cheat results: take a look for martingale, many dublicated orders for faking more wins then it was, trading without SL, fake big start wins to show big start wins, using scam/fake broker or own whitelabel broker and fake all results, use demo account advantages,..... and many many more. its a big topic.
dont look to growth and balance and monthly win percentage tables, its total useless. only look to eqity and drawdown tables. in the other 3 you get all still open losses hided and many show so only wins but have extrem losses same time.
  • #154
  • Nov 28, 2017 8:24am Nov 28, 2017 8:24am
Quoting goose4
Bigoldfella Can you recommend me to the best signal service you know ? I can't win on forex. Need a signal service but been scammed a number of times. Kind regards, Goose
I've mentioned a couple.
  • #155
  • Nov 28, 2017 8:28am Nov 28, 2017 8:28am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} its signal providers, chances that you will be scammed are very high or even extrem extrem high. many brokers are in forums to make marketing for their services, so also many signal services and managed accounts. look at mq5 market (book there signals by the monthly fee), its nothing more then a signal provider, that you get your signals copied to others. but at least you have results, and you are then own problem then by judging this results wrong. so you dont need to trust somebody on forum who talks about results from whatever signal...
I'm getting tired of repeating myself.

I have 4 years historical results, the last 2 years verified by myself. The results they publish match exactly my verified results. The first 2 years follow a very similar pattern to the second 2 years (similar volumes of trades, same style, similar win % etc).

It think it's unlikely that they thought "the BOF has started using our signals so we better start being truthful about our results".
  • #156
  • Nov 28, 2017 8:52am Nov 28, 2017 8:52am
Quoting BigOldFella
{quote} I'm getting tired of repeating myself. I have 4 years historical results, the last 2 years verified by myself. The results they publish match exactly my verified results. The first 2 years follow a very similar pattern to the second 2 years (similar volumes of trades, same style, similar win % etc). It think it's unlikely that they thought "the BOF has started using our signals so we better start being truthful about our results".
yes or no. i dont know you, trusting someone because he told aboput some money is often wrong. so trusting is only possible in own numbers.
if its true its fine for you.

but many of your arguments was wrong, some total wrong, and some even opposite to what you tell here, and you cant see this for whatever reason. but because its your opinion its just fine.
best is using sites like mq5 market and so on, a good signal provider would be there all the time, because can reach many people and cant cheat this easy. a bad would not, then your own number are possible to compare with the results of your signal provider who is there. just tell me what account in mq5 you speak about and its more easy to say if its true or not. about such small website (you speak about with some even more chance as scam) is useless to speak about, because you can say any number and nobody knows. when they are good in results they are in myfxbook or mq5 market so people can see the results, if not, tell for yourself why they dont want, 100% of time because they cheat some results more easy on their website.
  • #157
  • Nov 28, 2017 8:58am Nov 28, 2017 8:58am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} but many of your arguments was wrong, some total wrong, and some even opposite to what you tell here
I think we will have to agree to disagree.

Would be interesting to know what you think my wrong and opposite arguments are?
  • #158
  • Nov 28, 2017 9:00am Nov 28, 2017 9:00am
Quoting BigOldFella
{quote} I've mentioned a couple.

Since your from the uk have you ever heard of winning dow signals?

They have great reviews and amazing results

http://winningdowsignals.co.uk/
  • #159
  • Nov 28, 2017 9:10am Nov 28, 2017 9:10am
Quoting BigOldFella
{quote} I think we will have to agree to disagree. Would be interesting to know what you think my wrong and opposite arguments are?
i told you already in last days, you cant remember?
  • #160
  • Nov 28, 2017 9:22am Nov 28, 2017 9:22am
Quoting goose4
{quote} Since your from the uk have you ever heard of winning dow signals? They have great reviews and amazing results http://winningdowsignals.co.uk/
i read more bad then good about this, like any other signal provider.
you have to see always: there are many faked positive reviews and testemonials from affiliates and from the owners in many forums and other websites to get good results fakes and links.

many signal providers use mid spread to calculate (easy to win so), many only mention closed trades in win, and open losses are noever mentioned, so only balance not equity is what they show. special the winning dow signal has extrem high losses with over 1000 pips and will not mentioned...

i cant see that there are any good signal ervices, without the people who fakes wins with it. this are most of the time the positive tests you read.

what do you think is so positive in winningdow signals, there are many bad reviews. also many who seen big pips mentioned, but all who asked for account shown where they traded this etxrem big wins, they never had an account. that says all, when someone have extrem wins and dont show in own account or trade it there, you always know , its a faker and scammer. noone would not do this to earn money from his good signals and have proof so for his signal services, noone would not trade it or only trade in it in demoaccount or with fake broker.

this topic is so boring, because most of the time it need to write about such easy to see shit, and people dont do homework and learn basics to judge by their own. its same and same you need to say , because then comes this scam signal service, other brings this,..... but all are same, all.
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