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  • #561
  • Nov 26, 2017 3:55pm Nov 26, 2017 3:55pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Hi Cheetah I don't - but there is a chap here who does https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...ighlight=bonds
Fader, thanks for the link to this thread. You mentioned Benjamin before, but I couldn't fin the thread. Itwas a bit hard to get to the essence of how he approaches the market. It is interesting, but I don't think I could make it work.
  • #562
  • Nov 27, 2017 3:13am Nov 27, 2017 3:13am
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} Fader, thanks for the link to this thread. You mentioned Benjamin before, but I couldn't fin the thread. Itwas a bit hard to get to the essence of how he approaches the market. It is interesting, but I don't think I could make it work.
I couldn't either. I get the feeling that he wait for signals to appear in the stock market and bond market to confirm if there is a risk on or off momentum.

How are things going trading wise
  • #563
  • Nov 27, 2017 11:44am Nov 27, 2017 11:44am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} How are things going trading wise
Things are going well. In fact, perhaps, better than expected. When I began following the markets again in June after a 5-year absence, I committed to staying on demo until 2018.

I have spent a ton of time studying and researching in hopes of figuring out what moves the markets and how to execute trades.

I have learned a few things about myself: 1) I don't want to jump in and out of the market. Intraday trading doesn't suit my personality or lifestyle; 2) I am really interested in the big picture regarding shifts in the economy and central bank policy; 3) I tend to suffocate my central bank trades. I expect the market to move quickly so my stops are usually too tight; and, 4) I am comfortable risking more than 2% per trade. In fact, increasing my risk causes me to be more cautious and disciplined.

As you have mentioned numerous times, changes and/or anticipated changes in central bank policy moves the market in predictable ways. Rather, than looking for the perfect entry, I am just giving my trades more room and time to breathe. It has made a world of difference.

I think I am going to focus on medium-term trades: those that should last from a few weeks up to a few months.

In essence, I had to develop a trading style where, to a large extent, "entries don't matter."

If things go as planned, I am probably only going to take 4-6 trades all year when I go live in 2018.
  • #564
  • Nov 27, 2017 1:21pm Nov 27, 2017 1:21pm
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} Things are going well. In fact, perhaps, better than expected. When I began following the markets again in June after a 5-year absence, I committed to staying on demo until 2018. I have spent a ton of time studying and researching in hopes of figuring out what moves the markets and how to execute trades. I have learned a few things about myself: 1) I don't want to jump in and out of the market. Intraday trading doesn't suit my personality or lifestyle; 2) I am really interested in the big picture regarding shifts in the economy and central...

Cool!
  • #565
  • Nov 27, 2017 1:37pm Nov 27, 2017 1:37pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Cool!
How are things going with you? Are you having an undefeated November?

By the way, I forgot to say, "Thank you." Your insights, wisdom, and viewpoints have been invaluable.
  • #566
  • Edited 4:08pm Nov 27, 2017 2:57pm | Edited 4:08pm
Your welcome-

This month has been quiet - I guess nothing beats an election. As soon as Jacinda Arden spoke traders were selling.

Also wobbled a bit early on but have done well on the pound and the Euro.

Sentiment is key though -look at the pound recently - there was a miss on CPI figures and the pound still rallied. Does it really get any easier than that.

Its a case of putting all of this together and knowing where we are at. The only thing is that you have to keep your finger on the pulse.

There is nothing better than knowing that as price approaches resistance what it will do.

What currencies were you looking at specifically.
  • #567
  • Nov 27, 2017 4:11pm Nov 27, 2017 4:11pm
Quoting Fader123
I would talk about the state of the Aussie - but it would take too long.
Short Aussie is the one trade that I am in now. I made good pips on the NZD Winston trade, but I managed it too tightly.

Please share your thoughts are on the Aussie. It's a slow trading day

The RBA is really trying to drive AUD down right now. That last statement was quite dovish.

From a price action standpoint, the fact that Aussie couldn't rally when everyone else rallied against the dollar last week suggests that there is more downside there.

On another note, here is something that the commentators are saying that I am having a hard time making sense of fundamentally: they are bearish on the USD. Yeah, the tax cuts are probably going to be weak, we might only get two or three hikes next year, there is a new FED chair, etc. However, the FED has a much better fundamental environment than the BOE, BoC, RBA, AND RBNZ. The ECB is the only one in comparatively good shape.

During mid-2017, I never bought the idea that the USD was weak when they were the only ones hiking. I thought "dollar weakness" was really a correction from the dollar strength in the last few years. To me, this round of "dollar weakness" looks like end of the year profit taking.

However, I can't get too caught up in the fundamentals because sentiment can take over. The sentiment regarding the dollar after the FOMC statement in a few weeks is going to be crucial.
  • #568
  • Edited 5:47pm Nov 27, 2017 5:22pm | Edited 5:47pm
Have put my comments in below

I made good pips on the NZD Winston trade, but I managed it too tightly.

Fader- We can't get every pip. Obviously, s/r or pa can help positions. Usually, after a major event - sentiment is heightened. Traders will take any excuse to buy (pound recently) or sell (Kiwi last month).

Please share your thoughts are on the Aussie. It's a slow trading day The RBA is really trying to drive AUD down right now. That last statement was quite dovish.
From a price action standpoint, the fact that Aussie couldn't rally when everyone else rallied against the dollar last week suggests that there is more downside there.

Fader - Will have a proper look tomorrow and post here. But initial thoughts are traders looking at the dollar - any strengthening in it this week plus AUDJPY out flows not great for the Aussie. Powell did not seem that hawkish to me. Iron ore surely will reach saturation point at the Chinese docks. (Steel production reduced during the heating season in China (till March 18)).

On another note, here is something that the commentators are saying that I am having a hard time making sense of fundamentally: they are bearish on the USD. Yeah, the tax cuts are probably going to be weak, we might only get two or three hikes next year, there is a new FED chair, etc. However, the FED has a much better fundamental environment than the BOE, BoC, RBA, AND RBNZ. The ECB is the only one in comparatively good shape. During mid-2017, I never bought the idea that the USD was weak when they were the only ones hiking. I thought "dollar weakness" was really a correction from the dollar strength in the last few years. To me, this round of "dollar weakness" looks like end of the year profit taking. However, I can't get too caught up in the fundamentals because sentiment can take over. The sentiment regarding the dollar after the FOMC statement in a few weeks is going to be crucial.-

Fader - Excellent. Also it depends on what is priced in and the strength of the economy- and if it improves or worsens in the lead up to the event. In respect of the dollar - there has been a lot of concerns about inflation, Powell seems to be a bit dovish https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=718448
Then there is this tax issue. Trump is bullish-
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Obviously what we want is clear sentiment.
  • #569
  • Nov 29, 2017 5:04pm Nov 29, 2017 5:04pm
Hi guys,

So glad i found this thread as there really aren't too many fundamental fx traders in the retail world, thank you so much Fader123.

I used to be technical trader and only started learning fundamentals last year, but i really like the style and now combine both to my trade; make decisions by the fundamental background, catalyst and market sentiment, then execute with technical.

However, I had pretty bad month in Nov, was too impatient for a lot of my trades, will keep learning and thank you again for all great works guys!


Will be interested to see how the Tax bill goes tomorrow, will really push or drop USD.
  • #570
  • Nov 30, 2017 6:18pm Nov 30, 2017 6:18pm
Quoting Fader123
Fader, as I contribute, I will probably have some questions for you. ok. In one of your posts you mentioned that you were trained by an institutional trainer. (Fader) I went on the Jarratt Davis course. This really introduced me into what drives the markets. How did that happen? (Fader) Mainly because I thought who is the best fx trader I could learn from. He was ranked the 2nd best in the world over 8 years by Barclay Hedge. How could I not win. Candlesticks and pa alone were not doing it for me. I had no idea why price moved only that it did....
(Fader) Lots of things really; The main one I had to figure it out myself really- its a change in interest rate bias from a central bank. Also waiting for the macroeconomic picture to change from being positive to negative. The inter-relationships between currencies and commodities. Hope this helps Fader123[/quote]

If you don't mind, a quick query on Jarratt's course as I am looking into it to try to improve my fundamental knowledge.
It lasts 2 months..so did you find this was enough time to get to grips with it ?
My main concern is that (especially if you are new to it) is that it lasts two months. But that might not give you the whole picture. So there is no further chance to consult with the coaches and particularly there might be subtle nuances which only become apparent over time.

Thanks
  • #571
  • Nov 30, 2017 7:06pm Nov 30, 2017 7:06pm
Quoting jitasb
{quote} (Fader) Lots of things really; The main one I had to figure it out myself really- its a change in interest rate bias from a central bank. Also waiting for the macroeconomic picture to change from being positive to negative. The inter-relationships between currencies and commodities. Hope this helps Fader123
If you don't mind, a quick query on Jarratt's course as I am looking into it to try to improve my fundamental knowledge. It lasts 2 months..so did you find this was enough time to get to grips with it ? My main concern is that (especially if you are new to it) is that it lasts two months. But that might not give you the whole picture. So there is no further chance to consult with the coaches and particularly there might be subtle nuances which only become apparent over time. Thanks[/quote]

Hi -

First of all Jarratt has a load of videos on you tube- these should help
He also runs a facebook group- from which you can ask questions.
The course covers a lot not just fundamentals.
You have to really stick at it and only trade a certain times eg- sentiment going into a risk event (interest rates, CPI etc...).
This is where a trading plan helps
One of his coaches Chris Mathis has set up on his own - he might be able to help with on going training
  • #572
  • Edited 6:28am Dec 3, 2017 5:11am | Edited 6:28am
Looking at the dollar - figures seem to be ok -
Inflation seems to be finally picking up.
Wage estimates for this week look decent.
Some of the banks are bearish on UJ
But unemployment is at 4.1%
Powell seemed to be hakwish enough but still supporting the economy

This tax reform issue - has it been fully priced in
Not sure really. Some banks are now expecting 4 hikes in 2018.
Really you would have to say that this is bullish

Bit if a concern with the flattening if the yield curves

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-us...-idUKKBN1DW02M

Only other thing that worries me is this Russia thing with Jarred Kushner

Nothing like clear sentiment is there
  • #573
  • Edited 5:41pm Dec 3, 2017 4:52pm | Edited 5:41pm
Quoting Fader123
Looking at the dollar - figures seem to be ok - Inflation seems to be finally picking up. Wage estimates for this week look decent. Some of the banks are bearish on UJ But unemployment is at 4.1% Powell seemed to be hakwish enough but still supporting the economy This tax reform issue - has it been fully priced in Not sure really. Some banks are now expecting 4 hikes in 2018. Really you would have to say that this is bullish Bit if a concern with the flattening if the yield curves https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-us...-idUKKBN1DW02M...
At least common sense has prevailed- although it does seem odd that the President of US is slagging on the FBI
Opened at resistance
Had a small UJ long from Friday now think we could see 114.00
There was a bit of a tick up towards the end of the session on Friday on the greenback
There is a view that this tax reform would sort out the above yield issue- so hopefully traders will take note
Looking at the US figures - new house sales is doing well, unemployment is low, preliminary GDP was 3.3%
  • #574
  • Edited 6:05pm Dec 3, 2017 5:48pm | Edited 6:05pm
Some screenshots-
Some decent NFP figures would only help
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  • #575
  • Dec 4, 2017 2:13pm Dec 4, 2017 2:13pm
Ok update - have been out and about today
Closed UJ positions - seems to be pulling back to fill the gap.
I really should have been on this
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  • #576
  • Edited Dec 5, 2017 12:44am Dec 4, 2017 8:52pm | Edited Dec 5, 2017 12:44am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Looking at the US figures - new house sales is doing well, unemployment is low, preliminary GDP was 3.3%
I hope your UJ trade has turned around.

I am going to write a longer post about this in a few days, but I don't know if there are any dollar bulls left. No news seems to move the dollar up for long.

On the year, the dollar is flat or losing ground to all the major currencies. That's crazy.
  • #577
  • Dec 5, 2017 1:44pm Dec 5, 2017 1:44pm
Got cira 100 pips out of it.
At present I'm flat.
Perhaps it was a bit "buy the rumour sell the news".
  • #578
  • Dec 6, 2017 7:17am Dec 6, 2017 7:17am
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} I hope your UJ trade has turned around. I am going to write a longer post about this in a few days, but I don't know if there are any dollar bulls left. No news seems to move the dollar up for long. On the year, the dollar is flat or losing ground to all the major currencies. That's crazy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-growth-widens
  • #579
  • Edited 10:19am Dec 6, 2017 9:26am | Edited 10:19am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-growth-widens
Thanks for posting this. It is an interesting article. As I kept reading, the article right below it offered a different scenario: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-flows-kick-in

I think the key is that we will have to pay attention to whether or not the tax bill affects dollar repatriation back to the US in Q1. That seems like repatriation might be the tax reform issue that will have the most immediate impact.
  • #580
  • Dec 6, 2017 11:32am Dec 6, 2017 11:32am
Quoting The Cheetah
...I think the key is that we will have to pay attention to whether or not the tax bill affects dollar repatriation back to the US in Q1. That seems like repatriation might be the tax reform issue that will have the most immediate impact.
Seems like the markets no longer believes in anything but hard evidence... And even then, it seems to be looking for excuses to sell the dollar. Also, the sooner this controversy surrounding Trump/election ends, the clearer things becomes for the dollar.
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