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  • #5,961
  • Nov 24, 2017 11:05am Nov 24, 2017 11:05am
SO,

Now to be careful. this small return maybe a good signal of loading a downtrend. As my target between 1.1927-1.1938 is reached, it is good to time to watch out any breaking up or downside. But in my opinon time is late and the PA probably will stay a bit here around. There are also few signs that bull power is possible over, but careful with upside 1.1940 break, maybe will try to hit short positions and kick out many short traders. BL
" Accepting losses is the most important single investment devise "
  • #5,962
  • Nov 24, 2017 11:10am Nov 24, 2017 11:10am
Quoting 4xjunkie
{quote} roger, its all smoke and mirrors. a decent sell off will turn the h&s pattern into an M formation, W formation go up M formations go down. Ive stayed away from eu for months. learned this lesson in 2008 dont mess with the top of a trend that has an open gap at the bottom . let it print the top and pull back then sell the rally.
Since you are an oldtimer just like me, you should know and remember times when EU was 1.6. This pair still has plenty room to move further up.
  • #5,963
  • Edited 1:51pm Nov 24, 2017 11:43am | Edited 1:51pm
Outlook Week 48

Entry Plan H4

Don't know where the upmove is going to end, possible @ fib78.6 on primary corrective move, but I think it'll come back down beginning of next week, rsi +80.
A breaking of the speedline would be nice to look for other long entry's.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Long Plan.png Size: 142 KB


Entry Plan Daily

But don't mind the count on this previous chart, the upmove is probably still going.
Looking at the daily candle momentum is still high. So we would have to wait what monday brings, we might reach the blue zone before it comes back down for a corrective move and entry points might be adjusted as we go.
No bearish signs yet, only indication I see is on RSI that it might become to an end.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily Long Plan.png Size: 137 KB


H4 Intermediate - Minor

So probably we just did a simple 5-3-5 zig zag correction on primary to complete primary wave 2.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EW Count H4.png Size: 106 KB


Daily Primary - Intermediate

This would mean we are about to complete intermediate wave 1 on primary wave 3 somewhere next week probably.
And a corrective intermediate A-B-C wave is coming up after this upmove.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EW Count Daily.png Size: 111 KB


Sentiment

Sentiment has been shifting slowely from 50% to 64% bearish since the beginning of the week.

Attached Image


Edit

On the EW count, if next week volume picks up and we get more upmovement this would mean we are actually in wave 3 on intermediate wave 1.
Then primary corrective wave (C) will be at minor motive wave 2.

If this is the case, since our previous correction was a sharp, this one is probably going to be a sideways correction and 875x would be a great first entry point.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Edit EW count.png Size: 121 KB




Good luck
What's that smell? ---- I smell money!
  • #5,964
  • Nov 24, 2017 1:07pm Nov 24, 2017 1:07pm
Quoting sunilpawar
I am short from this moment As i feel move is over and now my target is 1.1400 approx Please dont follow me. I may cover my losses.
Just woke up
Thank god stop loss was at 1.1880
But still shorting with target 1.1820
The Phoenix Trader....
  • #5,965
  • Nov 24, 2017 1:15pm Nov 24, 2017 1:15pm
Quoting rkr81
I doesn’t look like it will retrace.. I do hold some shorts🤭🤭
Eur usd move is one direction.
Till last year it used to be a wave in 5 min chart
But now it goes in one direction and consolidate and make a move. So trading strategy must be like one
The Phoenix Trader....
  • #5,966
  • Nov 24, 2017 1:55pm Nov 24, 2017 1:55pm
The US Senate votes on tax reform next week. Trump to meet with Senate Republicans ahead of crucial tax votes. This will be a big test for Trump's presidential leadership! To avoid being chopped up next week, I'm on the sideline. Will monitor the USD pairs and try to find opportunities when things settled down.
The market is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time.
  • #5,967
  • Nov 24, 2017 4:20pm Nov 24, 2017 4:20pm
It has been quite a "weird" week with this drop on Sunday/Monday (GMT time) and the recovery and the green candle over the week.
No doubt the trend is bullish.
Being (unfortunately) bearish on the €, my reasoning is that it has been a while since we last spoke about Catalonia, Germany possible snap elections, Greece and so on... Price action is strong so far, supported as well by good figures in the €-zone, that is true.
I still believe something will go wrong for the € in the coming weeks ; only issue is that the Fed is likely to be dovish again in December...

So overall, it is so bullish for the € that it should fall...

Enjoy your week-end!
  • #5,968
  • Nov 24, 2017 9:11pm Nov 24, 2017 9:11pm
Quoting Geppy
Hey all, been busy with wrapping things up at work before heading out to see family tomorrow. I was stopped out of previous longs but bought here in the 1.1730's with a stop below 1.1660. I'm a swing trader, so take that into account. Hoping to get 200-300 pips from this puppy if we get the break I'm looking for.
Wow, well I've been busy with family the last few days so I just looked at this trade now that markets have been closed for the week.

Those first 200 pips sure came quick. Going to hang on for at least 100 more
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #5,969
  • Nov 24, 2017 9:54pm Nov 24, 2017 9:54pm
Nice job on catching the trend.
  • #5,970
  • Nov 24, 2017 9:56pm Nov 24, 2017 9:56pm
Quoting renanvito
{quote} Hey bro, long time hum, well, IMO, I think 1.1950 prolly today. I dont believe it will go back to end the week at 1.19, in general it only goes back when overcome the most 20 pips. so, 1.192 was taken, then higher. But, who knows, I would like to see 1.20 today, if not today next week we will be there, 1.188 is broken, the next resistency region, 1.20 and 1.21. EUR is hitting hard, poor usd. Best regards, Renan Vito
Yeah, it looks like it, OMG, 1944, and no correction yet! 1950 in sight.. You're right, 1200 is getting near.
BTW, this time is not the USD weakness, it's just the Mighty Merkel Muscles Show
Unfortunately, funadamentals rules, we have to forget about the technicals this time
Good luck, whatever you're trading!

Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Sorry mate was really busy.. well I shared the daily chart for thursday and friday earlier right? I was pointing at 1.1970.. simple as that Stay Green
Great. I like it so much when trading the FX is made so simple!
Green it is
Member
  • #5,971
  • Nov 24, 2017 10:03pm Nov 24, 2017 10:03pm
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} As expected, 1.1940 is touched and now retracement is in place, i expect to see 1.1885 by monday, could be a good apot to buy
Man I believe the daily top was at or very near 1.1940. Nice call.
  • #5,972
  • Nov 24, 2017 10:09pm Nov 24, 2017 10:09pm
Quoting carlossecc
Entering short at 1.1920, I can't believe it can go higher without any correction...
The big boys picked the perfect time to apply the maximum amount of pain to the greatest number of traders... Thanksgiving weekend when the market volume is light and they can corner the market as they please.
  • #5,973
  • Nov 25, 2017 5:22am Nov 25, 2017 5:22am
Quoting RicB
{quote} The big boys picked the perfect time to apply the maximum amount of pain to the greatest number of traders... Thanksgiving weekend when the market volume is light and they can corner the market as they please.
trading is their(MMs) business therefore they do all they can to make money...and that is fair.
NO MATTER THE SITUATION,NEVER LET YOUR EMOTIONS OVERPOWER YOUR INTELLIGENCE
  • #5,974
  • Nov 25, 2017 5:48am Nov 25, 2017 5:48am
Quoting RicB
{quote} The big boys picked the perfect time to apply the maximum amount of pain to the greatest number of traders... Thanksgiving weekend when the market volume is light and they can corner the market as they please.
This is a regular happening when volumes are down, bank holidays etc. Often you will see days of consolidation followed by a concerted move to take out the unwary.
Enhanced trading with the "Power of 4"
  • #5,975
  • Nov 25, 2017 5:51am Nov 25, 2017 5:51am
There is no guarantee the move up from 1.1553 to 1.1944 has topped. However a move back of at least 50% can be expected next week.
The move also has all the hallmarks of a classic ABC. Therefore if this proves to be true, continuation South to 1.12 & beyond can not be discounted.
Enhanced trading with the "Power of 4"
  • #5,976
  • Nov 25, 2017 5:57am Nov 25, 2017 5:57am
Trading EURUSD seems more like a gambling at this point. It targets ~1.24 monthly trend line, but can fall in any time, very unstable. I wonder if profesional traders trade this pair at all.
Toxic Trader
  • #5,977
  • Edited 4:33pm Nov 25, 2017 9:44am | Edited 4:33pm
Ok had to go back to the three basic rules on Elliot Wave.

Rule Number #2: Wave 2 can NEVER go beyond the start of Wave 1.

This means we actually are in minor Wave 3 on intermediate Wave 1.
If this is the case and the previous correction was a sharp, this would mean the next correction will probably be a sideways.
And we could get something like this before we complete intermediate Wave 1.

Since Wave 3 can NEVER be the shortest impulse wave, and Wave 1 extends Wave 3 (if the market turns at this point), Wave 5 will be the shortest of the impulse waves, so I think this one will only extend to max FE61.8.

We do have some intermediate and minor timezones coming together in the highlighted area and a new timezone coming up on monday so let's see how that plays out.

This only if the market turns at this point ofcourse, momentum was high on the previous upmove.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Timing Plan.png Size: 139 KB

Edit

So I updated the wave count.

Remember, since we didn't brake 1.20 yet (previous High on Primary uptrend), on dow theory this isn't a new primary wave yet.
This could very well be an any-three (W - ABC to X) and we would get more downside after this upmove to form a more complex double three or triple three correction.

In this case 1 is a, 2 is b and 3 is c and X.

Nothing is certain , but I'll let the fundamental specialists handle this.
Attached Image

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Edit EW count.png Size: 119 KB
What's that smell? ---- I smell money!
  • #5,978
  • Edited 10:20am Nov 25, 2017 9:55am | Edited 10:20am
Quoting SteFX85
Ok had to go back to the three basic rules on Elliot Wave. Rule Number #2: Wave 2 can NEVER go beyond the start of Wave 1. This means we actually are in minor Wave 3 on intermediate Wave 1. If this is the case and the previous correction was a sharp, this would mean the next correction will be a sideways. And we could get something like this before we complete intermediate Wave 1. Since Wave 3 can NEVER be the shortest impulse wave, and Wave 1 extends Wave 3 (if the market turns at this point), Wave 5 will be the shortest of the impulse waves, so...

Not sure but shouldn't Wave 1 be shorter or equal to Wave 3 and Wave 3 end around where Wave 5 does in the chart?

Ahhhh...got it!
16:17: Yes, I only consider it a wave 3 if it is the longest and attach significance to 1.618 extensions. Obviously, this is not in alignment with the basic rules. Up to this point I thought it was the law! I've learnt something new yet again!
  • #5,979
  • Edited 4:25pm Nov 25, 2017 10:02am | Edited 4:25pm
Quoting mbrown
{quote} Not sure but shouldn't Wave 1 be shorter or equal to Wave 3 and Wave 3 end around where Wave 5 does in the chart? Ahhhh...got it!
No don't think so, only three basic rules.

Rule Number #1: Wave 3 can NEVER be the shortest impulse wave
Rule Number #2: Wave 2 can NEVER go beyond the start of Wave 1
Rule Number #3: Wave 4 can NEVER cross in the same price area as Wave 1

It only says wave 3 can't be the shortest.

But there is a guideline that wave 3 is usually the longest, so maybe this upmove isn't over yet.

Edit

I found this on babypips.

Quote
Extended Impulse Waves
One thing that you also need to know about the Elliott Wave Theory is that one of the three impulse waves (1, 3, or 5) will always be “extended.”
Simply put, there will always be one wave that is longer than the other two, regardless of degree.
According to Elliott, it is usually the fifth wave which is extended.
As time went by, this old school style of wave labeling has changed because more and more people started labeling the third wave as the extended one.
What's that smell? ---- I smell money!
  • #5,980
  • Nov 25, 2017 10:40am Nov 25, 2017 10:40am
Quoting SteFX85
{quote} No don't think so, only three basic rules. Rule Number #1: Wave 3 can NEVER be the shortest impulse wave Rule Number #2: Wave 2 can NEVER go beyond the start of Wave 1 Rule Number #3: Wave 4 can NEVER cross in the same price area as Wave 1 It only says wave 3 can't be the shortest. But there is a guideline that wave 3 is usually the longest, so maybe this upmove isn't over yet.
Connie Brown.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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