The Cat & Dragon - GJ Free House

I sell today

Nice observation, I've noticed that too.

Okay, she hit today's CP, which I mentioned above may well be a strong support level. Now we'll see how strong....

That's why I never trade break outs...more often than not you get cut to pieces, especially on GJ, because a break out of a short time period range, such as we saw first thing this morning, and that sudden dip down to the CP, can just as easily be a fake as it can a break and hold out of consolidation, especially where there is clear S&R, such as we've had today, especially to the downside.

The fibs might give us an idea of how high this is likely to go now....50% @ 901 61.8 @ 910 76.4% @ 920.

The central pivot support @ 864 is still there, but now that the upside push has been rejected just short of the 76.4%, is it going to have the legs to break it this time around?

GJ sort of creeping around just above the central pivot now isn't it, and I would say that after today's rejection up at 14,938, it really does now look like it should break down to go lower, but of course, tomorrow is a big day for the GB pairs, so traders are going to be waiting for the budget, or, any early leaks of what the chancellor has up his sleeve will move the pound even before the budget announcement.

Today, the R1 level @ 14,966 was crucial, but the fact that the price didn't really get anywhere near it, spoke volumes about which way the money is now viewing these levels. The support on the central pivot, which also has the 30m 100sma running right along it, has been strong enough to stop the price, so far, and that really is all we can say right now.

Personally, I shall not be attempting to anticipate the budget, as there's no way of knowing which way sterling will move, so I will do what I always do when there is big price moving news releases, which is wait for the dust to settle and then try to pick a technical entry.

Just a reminder about this thread, that despite the title, it is not meant to revolve around me, it is meant to be a thread where all GJ traders can peruse and comment if they so wish. I did originally put it up on the discussion thread because as a rule, I dislike interactive threads for reasons I've already made clear, but the moderator moved it to the interactive section, which is okay, it doesn't change anything, and traders are free to post whatever they like provided the posts are constructive and relevant.

So Dragon traders, feel free to post your thoughts on this great pair, so that we can all benefit from each others wisdom, and the guy who put me on his ignore list today, no doubt because of this thread, then fuck you and be gone!

No change from yesterday atm, as we are still sitting around that support level which was yesterday's CP. S1 today I have at 851, and I have some MA support on that level as well. Putting the fibs on the downside and we have the 61.8 @ 830, and the 76.4 @ 805. These are levels I'll be watching if we push down.

Resistance is firstly around the CP @ 894. Above that and yesterday's high, which was the H4 100sma, is now at 14, 936 on my charts.

It's looking like it should fall, but with the UK budget later on, anything is possible.

Anyone looking for potential support levels beyond today's fibs, then the 8 hour chart has the 200ema which sent GJ back up on the 20th. Today's S3 pivot is right on top of it @ 14,776. Today's S2, which I have at 819, is just above the 8 hour 200sma.

Further out, it's the Daily chart, and the first level of support I have on that, if all support breaks on the 8 hour, is the 100sma which is at 14,680. Further down, the 200ema is at 14,570, with the 200sma on a nice round number @ 14,500. I think GJ is heading for these levels, maybe not today, but they are in the sights.

Today's pivot levels are:

R3=150.11
R2=149.69
R1=149.26
CP=148.94
S1=148.51
S2=148.19
S3=147.76

I do focus on Dragon, but occasionally I look over the fence at GBPUSD and USDJYP.

USDJYP is at a support of 112.00 and GBPUSD is trending up, forming a pennant. Obviously, UK budget will have an impact, which starts at 12.30 UK time. I ccouldn't predict where Dragon is heading today.

Unfortunately, due my software problems/change I can't do a screen shot; but working on it.

At S1

61.8% @ 830 held well. Like LetsTrade said above, it's impossible to say what GJ is going to do today, but the S&R parameters I posted above are my guides.

Aye, if it wasn't budget day I'd say long after the bullish flag since the 6th of this month

I tend to agree for today. Actually, the chances of Hammond coming out with anything that will send the pound crashing are probably less than the other way round in my opinion, so now that the 61.8% has held the price, we could well see GJ rocket north as the budget is released. Anyone long at the moment on or not far above the 61.8% fib rejection may be well advised to hold it at break even. I wouldn't risk anything on it though.

I am on the sideline for a while now, waiting for clarity ... favor the downside scenario though

Dragon currently at 148.50 area...I'm not sure and not taking any trades, but if I had to, I would take a bet southwards.

The last UK budget on March 8th, just as a matter of interest.

Buy stop above this 11AM 1hr candle (if it closes bearish)

Just my take and my simplistic brain: seem to have difference in technicals and fundamental right now. Very much the same was at March UK budget (nice chart which illustrates, Cat)

Technicals: Dragon's charts appear to be bearish i.e.. downward trend
Fundamentals: UK budget may pull Dragon up