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Proof That Forex is Random video

  • #141
  • Nov 18, 2017 2:08am Nov 18, 2017 2:08am
Quoting Ace66
{quote} can't recognize that is just a moving average with levels ... like 100 -100 200 -200 lol funny.....
Sure, but how to make the offset lines?

It has to be with an indicator?

I guess he is not just placing an offseted MA line using the basic MA indicator?

Ace66, can you please kindly demonstrate how exactly to do it?

I am afraid, if you fail to do it, that is where the funny part starts...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #142
  • Nov 18, 2017 3:09am Nov 18, 2017 3:09am
Quoting asgcorp
next time you claim that markets are a random walk, I suggest you get yourself familiar with track record of Ren Tech LLC. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies
I would bet they use mathematics to do probability models, if they are not an HFT firm.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #143
  • Nov 18, 2017 8:39am Nov 18, 2017 8:39am
Proof the markets are NOT random chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFDaily.png Size: 103 KB
Markets moving steady, less than 2 cents each day. Then some random day it decides to move over 18 cents.

Luuuuuuuuuuuucy, you got some splanin to do!
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #144
  • Nov 18, 2017 8:50am Nov 18, 2017 8:50am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I think that to have a market, each transaction is a coin flip. If it were not it would be modeled sooner or later and exploited to the degree that no one would take the other side. So I keep myself bracketed in the market?
Your trading style sounds like hedging and hedging is probability based trading. I think you are confusing random with "anything can happen". So... I'll agree that markets are random, for you.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #145
  • Nov 18, 2017 9:33am Nov 18, 2017 9:33am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} Sure, but how to make the offset lines? It has to be with an indicator? I guess he is not just placing an offseted MA line using the basic MA indicator? Ace66, can you please kindly demonstrate how exactly to do it? I am afraid, if you fail to do it, that is where the funny part starts...
omg but here you go .... yep that's all it is basic ma with levels..... 250 -250 500 -500...etc
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ma002.PNG Size: 49 KB
  • #146
  • Nov 18, 2017 10:16am Nov 18, 2017 10:16am
Quoting Ace66
{quote} omg but here you go .... yep that's all it is basic ma with levels..... 250 -250 500 -500...etc {image}
Thanks! How do you pull that out?!? I cant see it in my mt4...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #147
  • Nov 18, 2017 1:53pm Nov 18, 2017 1:53pm
Quoting Ace66
{quote} omg but here you go .... yep that's all it is basic ma with levels..... 250 -250 500 -500...etc {image}
I have been playing with these charts for years and I did not know about those levels, thanks for expanding my knowledge
  • #148
  • Nov 18, 2017 2:16pm Nov 18, 2017 2:16pm
Quoting pipatronic
{quote} I have been playing with these charts for years and I did not know about those levels, thanks for expanding my knowledge
NP green pips....
  • #149
  • Nov 18, 2017 2:20pm Nov 18, 2017 2:20pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} Thanks! How do you pull that out?!? I cant see it in my mt4...
When you open your MT4 platform look for the x in the right upper corner and just keep clicking on it until it pops out....
  • #150
  • Edited 6:08pm Nov 18, 2017 5:54pm | Edited 6:08pm
Quoting newbegger
Proof the markets are NOT random chart {image} Markets moving steady, less than 2 cents each day. Then some random day it decides to move over 18 cents. Luuuuuuuuuuuucy, you got some splanin to do!
That chart actually DOES show randomness. For those of us who were actually at our terminals when that happened, the SNB just days earlier had said the CHF would remain pegged to the Euro. Then, just like that, they just changed their mind. Now the act itself may not have been random and someone just lied, but no trader, anywhere, saw that coming.

Quoting asgcorp
weekly % change norm distribution for past 20 weeks for Apple INC stock. Now please go ahead and tell me that this is random. It's always easier to claim that it's random rather than put in the hard work and prove otherwise. {image}
1. That is growth chart, not a stock chart.
2. It is a company that has a valuation, as a results, fair value can be calculated.
3. The current price of a stock does not mean the company is fairly valued.

What does this have to do with the randomness of price from day to day?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #151
  • Nov 19, 2017 4:32am Nov 19, 2017 4:32am
Quoting Ace66
{quote} When you open your MT4 platform look for the x in the right upper corner and just keep clicking on it until it pops out....
Thank you! That was helpful! Did you notice it opens after 3 fast clicks on the x?
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #152
  • Nov 19, 2017 10:25am Nov 19, 2017 10:25am
I personally think the experiment is flawed as he keep the OPEN PRICE unchanged (i.e not random).

As a researcher you can not make such bold claims with one of the most important parameters (OPEN PRICE), same as the the market OPEN PRICE(i.e not random) then make the Close,High, Low a function of the OPEN that was determined by the market and still claim it random.
  • #153
  • Nov 19, 2017 10:33am Nov 19, 2017 10:33am
Quoting Zemanel
I think people are confusing two things here : Markets ARE NOT random BUT they are UNPREDICTABLE Markets move in suply and demand logic BUT there is no one that knows for sure when it will turn to a certain direction when it hits a certain "so called" support/resistance ... In long term, there is no way to figure out direction . You can nail it more than 50% in a certain time, but it will be temporary . This is why people say it is random , not the way markets function , but itīs predictability. A piece of advice : Donīt waste your...
What do you mean by Long Term ? Month, week, a year?
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #154
  • Nov 19, 2017 10:34am Nov 19, 2017 10:34am
Quoting alphaomega
Question: How many of you can actually read my message? 01010100011010000110010100100000011011010110000101110010011010110110010101110100001000000110100101110011001000000110111001101111011101000010000001110010011000010110111001100100011011110110110100100001 Answer: Probably none of you! (Ok, maybe, just maybe 1-2 people) Question: Why most of you cannot read this message? Answer: Because most of you lack the knowledge and the tools! And guess what? Most of you are in exactly the same situation with the market! No matter how much you stare at the...
Thank You................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #155
  • Nov 19, 2017 10:41am Nov 19, 2017 10:41am
Quoting alphaomega
Question: How many of you can actually read my message? 01010100011010000110010100100000011011010110000101110010011010110110010101110100001000000110100101110011001000000110111001101111011101000010000001110010011000010110111001100100011011110110110100100001 Answer: Probably none of you! (Ok, maybe, just maybe 1-2 people) Question: Why most of you cannot read this message? Answer: Because most of you lack the knowledge and the tools! And guess what? Most of you are in exactly the same situation with the market! No matter how much you stare at the...
As your charts show, you take the median price and buy and sell the extremes, simple as that for trading Forex...................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #156
  • Nov 19, 2017 11:39am Nov 19, 2017 11:39am
random is a result of ignorance of the divine
  • #157
  • Nov 19, 2017 12:35pm Nov 19, 2017 12:35pm
It's been a great thread. Learned a lot. A interesting person called Burton Malkiel wrote "A Random Walk Down Wall Street." The book popularized the efficient market hypothesis, an earlier theory posed by University of Chicago professor William Sharp. The efficient market hypothesis says that stock prices fully reflect all available information and expectations, so current prices are the best approximation of a company’s intrinsic value. This would preclude anyone from exploiting mispriced stocks on a consistent basis because price movements are largely random and driven by unforeseen events. Sharp and Malkiel concluded that, due to the short-term randomness of returns, investors would be better off investing in a passively managed, well-diversified fund. In his book, Malkiel theorized that "a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper's financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts."
  • #158
  • Nov 19, 2017 1:10pm Nov 19, 2017 1:10pm
I will make one exception to that - from what I've seen , a blind-folded monkey would do a better job

Anyway, study after study has shown markets ,at least in the short term, are random. If anyone doesn't want to believe that, fine - go argue with the economists who study the markets for a living. I've tried to point that out, but some people here ( who want to SELL indicators and EAs) keep claiming all the PhD economists are wrong and they alone are correct. They even claim they've "debunked" the evidence. Well, OK, believe what you wish to believe. I don't care. Go lose your money chasing your pipe dreams. Again, I don't care. Maybe you'll learn the truth, maybe not. Don't say I didn't warn you.
  • #159
  • Nov 19, 2017 1:36pm Nov 19, 2017 1:36pm
Quoting gravitist
I will make one exception to that - from what I've seen , a blind-folded monkey would do a better job Anyway, study after study has shown markets ,at least in the short term, are random. If anyone doesn't want to believe that, fine - go argue with the economists who study the markets for a living. I've tried to point that out, but some people here ( who want to SELL indicators and EAs) keep claiming all the PhD economists are wrong and they alone are correct. They even claim they've "debunked" the evidence. Well, OK, believe what you wish...

It's also the trading cost with slippage that makes short term trading VERY hard. To overcome them odds. In this random beast.

It's like a casino. At least in a casino you got sexy chicks around.The house has the edge. Retail forex is designed so people lose,mostly.
  • #160
  • Nov 20, 2017 4:27am Nov 20, 2017 4:27am
Quoting gravitist
Price is not predictable. Period. In fact, the market would not even exist if prices were predictable. If everybody knew what the "right" price of a commodity should be, the price would go immediately to that price. You couldn't buy because no one would sell to you. This is basic Econ 101 stuff. Honestly, I shouldn't have to be explaining this to forex traders. Every trade has two sides - a buyer and a seller. If one side isn't willing, there is no trade. That's how it works, folks. Now, sadly, there are some people here at FF who will tell gullible...
Best Post of the Year !

I still think you are all confusing RANDOMNESS and PREVISIBILITY .
Markets move in a logic order of supply and demand BUT are not predictable .

That is a fact !
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