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Proof That Forex is Random video

  • #81
  • Nov 15, 2017 6:24pm Nov 15, 2017 6:24pm
Who says you can't make money trading a random set of numbers anyway? I bet I could.
  • #82
  • Nov 15, 2017 6:28pm Nov 15, 2017 6:28pm
What sorcery is this!
watching now....
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #83
  • Nov 15, 2017 6:29pm Nov 15, 2017 6:29pm
ppl dont understand calling it random
WaBaS Where are Buyers and Sellers
  • #84
  • Nov 15, 2017 6:34pm Nov 15, 2017 6:34pm
Quoting goose4
{quote} I mean look at this chart. Its a random generated charts. ...
based on all your posts in this thread you do not understand trading and that is contrary what you posted here:

Quoting goose4
.. I make a living having a portfolio of stocks and the earnings is my salary,and I buy looking for good value companies. ...
NO MATTER THE SITUATION,NEVER LET YOUR EMOTIONS OVERPOWER YOUR INTELLIGENCE
  • #85
  • Nov 15, 2017 6:40pm Nov 15, 2017 6:40pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I would also like to add that whether the market is random or not does not impact whether or not we can make money from it. I personally believe that the market is random on any level below W1. A simple excel program will show the randomness of up and down days. It is essentially a coin flip. The key to making money is market participation. You cannot win if you do not play.
Are you saying that trading below W1 is akin to betting on roulette spins ?

Quoting hanover
{quote}But we know that this isn't completely true, because factors like prevalent belief systems, macroeconomics, central bank interventions, supply/demand, trader psychology/behavior, heavyweight agendas, new information (news -- which in some situations, can take time to become 'priced in'), profit taking/corrections, etc etc all create liquidity imbalances and 'trends', and hence the probability of a rise/fall isn't necessarily 50/50 all the time. Also, some studies show that the market is a 'fat tail' distribution, creating a slight bias toward...
The only way to gain an edge is fundamental analysis since the rest of price movement is random ? That would make those who major in economics the best traders ?
  • #86
  • Nov 15, 2017 6:52pm Nov 15, 2017 6:52pm
Quoting goose4
{quote} How do you explain this article my friend ? http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2...tive-sum-game/ The figures don't lie 100% failure rate Explain ? What the article said = The conclusion is that frequent intraday retail forex trading is a devastating negative-sum game for the totality of participants in the longer-term as soon as commission and slippage are introduced. Skill and luck play no role because making a profit is impossible in frequent trading under these conditions of...
After I read some of you other posts, I think I was wrong and that you have genuine interest in the random theory. An easy proof that market is not random is a Janet Yellen speech. If she says exactly what markets expect, USD remains stable. If she gives information other than what market expects, USD goes crazy. If market was random, it would not react to a speech.

That said, the markets cannot be predicted. Anything can happen, and does happen. The biggest mistake a trader can make is to predict a direction. You can use trading method that has high probability of winning and succeed as a trader. Probability is big difference from predicting.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #87
  • Edited 8:39pm Nov 15, 2017 7:16pm | Edited 8:39pm
Has he studied wave theory or tried to apply wave theory?
Is he qualified to enlighten us on 'what is', because he has a successful system? Does successful random system equal "Markets are random"?
Trying to convince people your an expert before the lesson by repeating "I've programed lots of robots", is a classic symptom of lying.
Can this be destroyed in five minutes by labeling his charts?
Why does it take over an hour to explain a fundamental truth?
Do people with big accounts who follow the wave theory know what they're talking about?
Can wave theorist read waves and catch every move every day for months on end, or predict years in advance, project whole day's and weeks price action in advance?

Eight minutes in and I'm in a trend line lesson zZZZ don't know.. if... I can... take much more...

Why are we trying to convince people that markets are random?
13 minutes, ok new stuff it's warming up lol

My interest is peaking some pearls among the swine
18:59 I can see exactly the same wave counts in his random charts, he doesn't know wave system to recognize and take advantage of how waves play out.
Does randomly generated charts looking the same as regular charts = Markets are random? Ithink not, but he's so excited, he thinks he's cracked it.

He just said it moves on news! I'm out. Might finish later. He's flying in the face of all I hold dear lol.
Made me think about sweet spots, good effort. Learn wave theory before you take this on board j-sus H
I am of the exact polar opposite to this opinion, however the truth may lay somewhere in between.

Need zee's thanks for the post. I'll finish watching tomorrow, gnight all.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #88
  • Nov 15, 2017 7:54pm Nov 15, 2017 7:54pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} Another problem with discussions like this is that the word "random" means different things to different people. FWIW here's how I understand it: The market is "random" in the sense that it consists of a mix an anonymous participants whose agendas can't be known to the retail trader. Potentially, anything can happen at any time. No argument there. However, when the textbooks talk about a "random walk", they are effectively asserting that the probability of price rising or falling is exactly 50/50 at all times, i.e. a perfect Gaussian distribution....
Precisely. In a nutshell, we are not trading price, we are trading people. That is my personal view.

Quoting skyway
{quote} Are you saying that trading below W1 is akin to betting on roulette spins ? {quote} The only way to gain an edge is fundamental analysis since the rest of price movement is random ? That would make those who major in economics the best traders ?
Yep, if you do a frequency distribution in excel it will tell you as much. Econ majors have their own set of issues, like suffering draw downs of banks and whatnot. But if an Econ trader bought and held for a year based on fundies, they would do okay. That is just my view.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #89
  • Nov 15, 2017 9:39pm Nov 15, 2017 9:39pm
Quoting Zemanel
It is a possibility that the markets are not random , but... i donīt think there is someone in the entire world that knows for sure if the price goes in a certain way when it hits a certain "resistance / support" . The only way to make Money is to have a system that covers all the possibilities . The problem is that when you cover one end , you uncover the other end ...
Trading FX is like reading a book,

you follow the story until the story changes, you make adjustments as you go along.

It's only waves...............
Attached Image
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #90
  • Nov 15, 2017 11:26pm Nov 15, 2017 11:26pm
Quoting skyway
The only way to gain an edge is fundamental analysis since the rest of price movement is random ? That would make those who major in economics the best traders ?
My personal preference is FA (some reasons here), but here is an example of a money manager who uses TA and has had 26 profitable months out of 26.
  • #91
  • Nov 16, 2017 4:31am Nov 16, 2017 4:31am
Quoting hanover
{quote} My personal preference is FA (some reasons here), but here is an example of a money manager who uses TA and has had 26 profitable months out of 26.
I have come to understand myself that FA is the start of it all. Top down approach. Then we can use TA for entries and exits in the direction of the fundamental picture. I am profitable almost all of the time too, but it is not because I am any good at picking tops and bottoms, I use small entries an no hard stops and trade around my draw. Eventually revenues taken in exceed my floating draw. That is why I hop around from thread to thread. I will make the template, take a trade, and manage it.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #92
  • Nov 16, 2017 4:43am Nov 16, 2017 4:43am
Quoting hanover
{quote} My personal preference is FA (some reasons here), but here is an example of a money manager who uses TA and has had 26 profitable months out of 26.
That is reflected in price: MM's opinion and decisions...trader read it from chart?
NO MATTER THE SITUATION,NEVER LET YOUR EMOTIONS OVERPOWER YOUR INTELLIGENCE
  • #93
  • Nov 16, 2017 4:44am Nov 16, 2017 4:44am
Quoting forexalien
you follow the story until the story changes, you make adjustments as you go along
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
  • #94
  • Nov 16, 2017 5:57am Nov 16, 2017 5:57am
I think people are confusing two things here :

Markets ARE NOT random BUT they are UNPREDICTABLE

Markets move in suply and demand logic BUT there is no one that knows for sure when it will turn to a certain direction when it hits a certain "so called" support/resistance ...

In long term, there is no way to figure out direction . You can nail it more than 50% in a certain time, but it will be temporary . This is why people say it is random , not the way markets function , but itīs predictability.

A piece of advice : Donīt waste your time figuring out how to predict price movement !

The real challenge for us is to figure out how to cover the most of all possibilities
  • #95
  • Nov 16, 2017 6:31am Nov 16, 2017 6:31am
Quoting Zemanel
I think people are confusing two things here : Markets ARE NOT random BUT they are UNPREDICTABLE Markets move in suply and demand logic BUT there is no one that knows for sure when it will turn to a certain direction when it hits a certain "so called" support/resistance ... In long term, there is no way to figure out direction . You can nail it more than 50% in a certain time, but it will be temporary . This is why people say it is random , not the way markets function , but itīs predictability. A piece of advice : Donīt waste your time figuring...
If no one knows what will happen next is that not by definition random? Non random is that we know what time the sun will rise every day. Random would be just the opposite. Now there are forces that pull and push on markets, but how hard they pull and push is completely unknown, hence, random.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #96
  • Nov 16, 2017 7:14am Nov 16, 2017 7:14am
Quoting tashkent
discussions about the randomness or predictability of the financial markets are mostly useless. it has more to do with one's "belief". believers of the opposing poles may produce their "proofs" but they are usually subjective and can not be scientifically proven. one can categorize financial markets as of a complex adaptive system. these systems have the following main attributes: - they exist in leaderless, dynamic environment; their participants interact with each other by following the simple rules and create self organized patterns. just like...
My sentiments exactly. If there where any acceptable proofs for price being either random or not, that proof would already be and/or enter into ALL other behaviours. People have been discussing determinism or indeterminism for thousands of years. I dont see any reason to believe those discussions will be ended in a internet forum about currencies. So like you, instead i focus on simple things: Entry, lot size, exit and so on. Lets leave the rest to people who like to bicker for thousands of years without end.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #97
  • Edited 8:47am Nov 16, 2017 7:38am | Edited 8:47am
Question: How many of you can actually read my message?

01010100011010000110010100100000011011010110000101110010011010110110010101110100001000000110100101110011001000000110111001101111011101000010000001110010011000010110111001100100011011110110110100100001

Answer: Probably none of you! (Ok, maybe, just maybe 1-2 people)

Question: Why most of you cannot read this message?

Answer: Because most of you lack the knowledge and the tools!

And guess what? Most of you are in exactly the same situation with the market!
No matter how much you stare at the charts - they still look just as random as my binary message above!

Anyone who argues that the market is 100% random is...to say it lightly - he is uninformed or simply blinded by ignorance!

So let's lift the veil for a few seconds to see what's hiding behind it.

These screenshots are straight from my trading logs. Notice the major turning points highlighted in blue! In some cases the price is bouncing from the same S/R line 8-9 times in a row! (With accuracy almost to the pip) Do you know what is the probability for this to happen in random charts??

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I don't know about you, but to me this does not look random at all!
In fact, unlike most of you, I have done a lot of research and testing, and I can assure you that these patterns do not appear in randomly generated charts!
I have thousands of these examples in my automatic logs! The patterns appear again and again and again! Every week, every month, every year.....they never change!
These patterns are the reason, why I managed to stay in the game for so long. And there are many other patterns. (But please, do not ask me for more details.)
Everyone have head on their shoulders and can decide for themselves. Some people will get the message. Others will not.

So, good luck!
  • #98
  • Nov 16, 2017 7:49am Nov 16, 2017 7:49am
Quoting alphaomega
Question: Now many of you actually read my message? 01010100011010000110010100100000011011010110000101110010011010110110010101110100001000000110100101110011001000000110111001101111011101000010000001110010011000010110111001100100011011110110110100100001 Answer: Probably none of you! (Ok, maybe, just maybe 1-2 people) Question: Why most of you cannot read this message? Answer: Because most of you lack the knowledge and the tools! And guess what? Most of you are in exactly the same situation with the market! No matter how much you stare at the charts...
Just noticed this post of yours:
01010100011010000110010100100000011011010110000101110010011010110110010101110100001000000110100101110011001000000110111001101111011101000010000001110010011000010110111001100100011011110110110100100001

The length of the message is a multiple of 8 and each group starts with a 0... Sounds like ASCII!

Inserted Code
    public static void main(String[] args)
    {
        byte[] buf = new byte[] { 0b01010100, 0b01101000, 0b01100101, 0b00100000, 0b01101101, 0b01100001, 0b01110010,
                                                 0b01101011, 0b01100101, 0b01110100, 0b00100000, 0b01101001, 0b01110011, 0b00100000,
                                                 0b01101110, 0b01101111, 0b01110100, 0b00100000, 0b01110010, 0b01100001, 0b01101110,
                                                 0b01100100, 0b01101111, 0b01101101, 0b00100001 };
        System.out.println(new String(buf));
    }

It prints
"
The market is not random!
"
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #99
  • Nov 16, 2017 7:51am Nov 16, 2017 7:51am
Quoting alphaomega
Question: How many of you actually read my message? 01010100011010000110010100100000011011010110000101110010011010110110010101110100001000000110100101110011001000000110111001101111011101000010000001110010011000010110111001100100011011110110110100100001
Let me translate: "The market is not random!"

P.S. I used Google

Edit: Oops, I was a bit late )
Let's go with the flow
  • #100
  • Nov 16, 2017 7:53am Nov 16, 2017 7:53am
Quoting alphaomega
Question: How many of you actually read my message? 01010100011010000110010100100000011011010110000101110010011010110110010101110100001000000110100101110011001000000110111001101111011101000010000001110010011000010110111001100100011011110110110100100001 Answer: Probably none of you! (Ok, maybe, just maybe 1-2 people) Question: Why most of you cannot read this message? Answer: Because most of you lack the knowledge and the tools! And guess what? Most of you are in exactly the same situation with the market! No matter how much you stare at the charts...
But you also have tons of examples that prove the other way around , donīt you ?
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