Elroy G Trading Journal

NEW TRADE

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZnnseMSZ

Price looks to be going up today. It appears to have completed a scoop pattern on the 30 min, after bouncing off a mid-quarter line which intersected an uptrend line and the 50SMA; making 2 dojis, then extending up further. Looking for a bounce possibly off 1.14531.

Position
Buy 1.14531
SL 25p
TP 30p
Ri/Re: 1.2
% Margin: 1

UPDATE

https://www.tradingview.com/x/zupNU8sb

Think I'll move my entry on a bounce of 1.14687 targetting only 15 pips up. I'll wait on a bounce tho.

UPDATE

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4dtwc12h

So the price reached that top and made a big wick and a body that closed that 15p span. Tempted to sell, but I think I'll buy at the 1.14687 line if price stays above it still targetting the 15 pip.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/eWhbjyXm

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/foy8xnUX

Price stopped at the line, but on the 30min it seemed like the position was to reverse and continue selling. I wasn't sure anymore, and because I wasn't sure I closed the position. I was considering reversing the position, considering I was also observing divergence on the hourly. But will stochastics on all times showing upward momentum, and daily price still signalling uptrend though currently consolidating, I felt it was safer to close out. But let's see what the price actually did.

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ToSIRxVW

And here's what it actually did. Could've made 15p. But better small profit than big loss. There's more where that came from. This is more evidence that the patient approach can pay off, and that I'm reading the charts a little more accurately.

NEW TRADE

https://www.tradingview.com/x/UkmiLc0D

Missed that entry at 1.15469, was actually watching it this morning. But it felt a little early for me. It may be looking to sell, but I'll look for another buy entry. If the price bounces off 1.15781 then I'll consider an entry at 1.15625, targetting 15p.

UPDATE

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9lDUl1cL

Price seems to finally be coming down from its high. I'm thinking about waiting until it goes back up to 1.15781 before selling. But considering the general trend on the daily is up, and strongly so given the stochastic, I'll look if a buy at 1.15625 is still a good idea. Given where that 7EMA is I think it just might be a good idea.

UPDATE

https://www.tradingview.com/x/FpNLjFrY

PLaying safe and awaiting a bounce.

UPDATE

the bounce didn't materialize so i stayed outta the trade. No harm, no foul. Till next time.

New Trade

https://www.tradingview.com/x/mGzZZba6

Profits are being taken I think, prior to the ECB decision tomorrow. However price is still in a strong uptrend given daily price movement and stochastic. So I still think buys are valid. Currently considering buying if the price bounces off 1.1516 again.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ER6gBXXc

On the 30min we see price breaking an intra day uptrend, but bouncing off both the 50sma and a support line.Given that it is at its midpoint, Stochastics suggest that price is now deciding whether to return to its down trend or retrace upward a little more. 7:30 will see some important news out of the US on building permits and housing starts, with both expected to rise.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/sujnY2aX

Price bounced off that 50SMA again and went above that 1.15313 line. I want it to take out that large red candle before I consider entering. If it does I'll buy at 1.15313.

UPDATE

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Um8Qs2OO

Lost 14p on this one. Should've paid more respect to the long upper wicks following a downtrend. But can't win em all.

I was considering staying out today. Didn't feel like my mind was right: felt hesitant and diffident and sleepy. I saw two really good opportunities to entry and closed out because of fear. But there's been a strong uptick in the EUR/USD in response to Draghi presentation concerning the state of the Euro. So I'm just gonna wait on a bounce to buy back in as usual. No risk, no reward and playing it safe doesn't mean no risk.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cxDj4gq8

Depending on how this red candle ends I'll decide whether to buy in.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XGcM177o

Set a buy at 1.1625.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XGcM177o

So I'm in but not liking those two dojis on the 30min that preceded this current candle that triggered me in.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/liP8C49Q

Closed out with less than 1p profit. Saw the two dojis, and the slightly larger hanging man on the hourly and felt like price was beginning to reverse. This was compounded by the fact that price looked to be in a channel on the 4hr and was probably experiencing a fake out. This all was happening in conjunction with the stochastics being pretty high and stabilizing, suggesting possible reversal in momentum on the horizon. Missed 11p, but decided to cut my losses and run.

New Trade

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xLP5bHY7

Buying @ 1.16562 given the double bottom that bounced off an upward trend line and diverged on stochastics.

Position
Buy @ 1.16562
SL 15p
TP 15p
Ri/Re: 1
% Margin: 1%

UPDATE

https://www.tradingview.com/x/05blGp9H

Took my profits for 12p but could've made all 15p targetted.

New Trade

https://www.tradingview.com/x/gyJ8DXQC

Seeing a strong uptrend on the daily, but there's an intra-day counter downtrend. I've been wondering when the market will take profits off this upward move so I'm anxious for a sell. Nevertheless, my approach is to trade with the market, and I'm not convinced of the reversal just yet. So although the intra-day looks good for a sell, I'll still look more for a buy, possibly at 1.1625.

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CDi5Vneg

Buying at 1.16406
SL 25p
TP 25p

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XK9WHEkd

Didn't think it would continue so I stopped out with 1p profit. I was seeing divergence on the stochastic, which hadn't even crossed the 50 mark, suggesting that price was just bouncing before continuing down. Price was also respecting the BB20 midline on the 30min forming what looked like a tweezer top close to that line. I could've reversed my position, but figured I'd just close out seeing as I'm in a buying mood still.

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WbfXlQxj

Turns out I was right to close out.

New Trade

https://www.tradingview.com/x/J3Ku7yQv
https://www.tradingview.com/x/AM9DeEzS

There appears to be an intra-day uptrend in line with the daily trend. Price was making some long wicks below suggesting reluctance to fall. On the hourly, I saw consolidation leading into a strong buy, and bullish divergence on the stochastics.

Position
Buy @ 1.16562
SL 25p
TP 25p
Ri/Re: 1
Margin: 1%

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/qYhwkPFS

My initial position seems irrelevant now as the price has shot up on the 30min. Buying strength is very much there so looking for a bounce closer around the end of the London session.

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/I0wEG1C7

I wanna see it bounce off 1.16718.

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/IDPWoWnW

ok maybe 1.16875?

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/uIDjmxZP

But 1.16718 is looking like the better choice. At the moment anyway.

New Trade

https://www.tradingview.com/x/FI58AdGW

News from the FOMC sent price up as the USD was sold. Hourly and 30min price showing strong upward momentum on the stochastic following a double bottom on the 4 hour. Thinking of buying at the 1.16875 line.

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/VP0dWnEU

Triggered in.

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MSbeTw8n

Took profits at 10p.

New Trade

https://www.tradingview.com/x/mimpBeyB
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qOku9HJS

I'm seeing bullish divergence on the 30min as the price approaches a mid quarter line. Additionally, it's already bounced once off the line which was once a resistance line before before being broken, and is currently the 50SMA.

Position
Buy 1.16875
SL 25p
TP 25p
Ri/Re: 1
Margin: 1%

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/viMFS3Ol

Triggered.

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cHI2jw8X

Lost 25p

Well that was rough. Guess I read that wrong. Anyway, on to the next one.

New Trade

https://www.tradingview.com/x/fAwW42Nn

On the 30min, at 11. I saw price had made a large movement up, with stochastics showing very strong, but slowing upward momentum. The daily was showing a prolonged uptrend, and I had missed an earlier setup that included a bullish divergence on bother the 1hr and 30min. Decided Entered a buy order at 1.18125.

Position
Buy 1.18125
SL 15p
TP 15p
Ri/Re: 1
Margin: 1%

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/fAwW42Nn

Stopped out with 10p profit, but price eventually made the 15p mark.

New Trade

https://www.tradingview.com/x/qV0Bi6pg (overall)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1iUly3AO (1hr)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oko1Eg89 (30min)

Price is still in an upward channel as suggested by the daily and 4hr. So I'm looking for a buy. The ADP NFP came in lower than anticipated though it showed increases. Price looks to be rising a gain, forming a bullish divergence on the hourly. Though there is also strong upward momentum on the 30min, there appears to be bearish divergence. Coupled with the fact that price still has strong downward momentum on the hourly, it may not be the best time to buy. But I'm considering buying at 1.18438

Position
Buy @ 1.18438
SL 15p
TP 15p
Ri/Re: 1
Margin: 1%

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OIpEE60j

Thinking about buying here instead.

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Gd2XNjX7

Bought at 1.18594.

Position
Buy @ 1.18594
SL 15p
TP 15p
Ri/Re: 1
Margin %: .65%

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/a0Cuaioc

14p Profit.

Update

At this time of the day volatility drops so that price won't make the quick movements seen earlier in the day, unless there is news that causes a rush on positions. As such, even more patience is needed when trading at the time of the day. So far, my review of my progress shows reasonable success using this strategy, but I'm going to keep testing this approach for at most 2 more months before I make any conclusion about its efficacy.

New Trade

https://www.tradingview.com/x/849n3DoC (overall)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/yd6X39rw (30min)

NFP came in much better than expected, while wages held steady. USD bulls returned and sent the price plummeting. On the 30min stochastics has reached oversold, so with profit taking occuring and price still showing very strong downward momentum, it's looking like my time to find an entry. More profit might be taken before the price continues down so I'm skeptical of this move right now. Looking to enter at 1.17656 and target 30p considering the long wick formed. On the 4HR price could reasonable rebound to 1.17969, but the 1.17656 was once a resistance line so it might hold again now. Plus on the 30min, went noticeably below the 200SMA and my considered entry isn't too far from that.

Position
S 1.17656
SL 25p
TP 31p
Ri/Re: 1.24
%Margin :1.08%

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CmkOih2W

Closed out the position with no trigger. Price basically stopped at the 1.175 line. Looks like next week is where it's at. Will need to consider selling instead of buying.

New Trade

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qka1H06Y

Hoping price stops at 1.1750. If it does i'll sell.

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vqSks3B6

Looks like a bounce on the 30min.

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Y2QQczOJ

Let's see what happens here

Update

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ahI3lkGj

Lost 15p

New Trade

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Fqz2oaco
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RwjVVV8I

Saw that and made an entry with a 25p stop. But then this happened

https://www.tradingview.com/x/wJ9CuiIJ

Lost 25p.

Need to stick to my plan, if I had read the stochastics, I would've seen the divergence and realized it wasn't wise to jump in just yet.

New Trade

https://www.tradingview.com/x/NXOm782y
https://www.tradingview.com/x/GDDeMYad


https://www.tradingview.com/x/p2wC0pP7

Lost 25p on this one.


In fairness, although this looked good, following that downtrend line and psych level, it is a good example of the importance of understanding the market phase. Price is clearly consolidating in a range before some big movement. It has been climbing for a while and was due a break or correction. So the wise trade would be to sell at the top and buy at the bottom. I think it would be even better to look for the buys because the overall trend is still up. But lesson learned- learned the hard way but learned all the same.

I havent posted in a while clearly, but i've still been trading. I'm trying a new trading strategy that is a lot simpler, but requires a lot more discipline.

Theory:

1. Quarter Theory
2. Price Action/Support Resistance

Signals

1. SMA 7 (green)
2. SMA 14 (red)
3. Stochastics (14,3,3)

Time

1. Daily
2. 4 Hours

1. Use Quarters theory to identify significant price points.
2. Highlight those areas where major price movements occurred to identify support and resistance lines.
3. Evaluate price action at those points
   1. Look for reversal candlestick and chart signals that occur at support/resistance
   2. The best price signals will also cross one or both of the moving averages
   3. Highest likelihood also involves a cross of the moving averages while stochastics confirm price movement

   
   

4. Enter on the open of the next daily candle during Japan, British or NY open, preferrably British/NY open
   1. Buy when
      1. Price reaches major support
      2. Price shows buy signal at major support lines
      3. Price crosses above one or both SMAs (confirmation)
      4. Stochastics crosses up and is above the 50 mid-point (confirmation)

      
      

   2. Sell when
      1. Price reaches major resistance
      2. Price shows sell signal at major resistance line
      3. Price crosses below one or both SMAs (confirmation)
      4. Stochastics crosses down and is below the 50 mid-point (confirmation)

      
      

   
   

My profile page displays the statistical results of the trades I've executed using this approach on my MT4 account. Below is an example of the trade I currently have open. I've been holding this trade for a day and currently making 112 pips. On Monday, I noticed that price had gapped up and made an engulfing bullish candle at a support line, which closed above the SMA 7 while the stochastic crossed up, though still below 50.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CIN6Q7gg

Buying the NZD/JPY. On Sunday's open I saw a gap up after an engulfing bullish candle with the MAs converging and about to cross up, and the stochastics showing strong upward momentum. I woke at 3 and bought in while the candle was still bullish during UK open.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/EqjmPBgD

At the time of this post I'm 30p in the red.

Yesterday I opened long on the EURJPY. It looked to me that the price had been in a range, and that the price had reached the bottom of the range. It formed a tweezer bottom then and engulfing bull. It gapped high above the MAs then made a hammer that still closed above the MA14. Stochastics also showed a reversal in momentum.

I bought in at the EUR open. Price went up 100 pips. Today it's bearish, but I'm calling it profit taking. I'm targeting 134.241 having bought at 132.619.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7N1MfyJB