Proof That Forex is Random video | Forex Factory

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Proof That Forex is Random video

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 11, 2017 10:21am Nov 11, 2017 10:21am
A very interesting video.

Enjoy.

Inserted Video
  • #2
  • Nov 11, 2017 11:30am Nov 11, 2017 11:30am
Quoting goose4
A very interesting video. Enjoy.

LOL!

Interesting and enjoyable, possibly.

Logical, accurate or sensible, not so much.

The author's a mathematical illiterate, who doesn't distinguish between "random" and "pseudorandom", and doesn't like to let inconvenient facts get in the way of a convenient "theory".

Still, it will fool some people, I guess.
  • #3
  • Nov 11, 2017 11:33am Nov 11, 2017 11:33am
Here we go, hundreds of pages of arguments coming up ..
  • #4
  • Nov 11, 2017 12:29pm Nov 11, 2017 12:29pm
Quoting Quickly
Still, it will fool some people, I guess.

There are certainly some people who believe it.

Mostly people who learned everything they know about trading online, are not profitable, and know a lot of others in exactly the same position who can all reinforce their opinions.

And in a field like forex trading, there sure are a lot of them, for understandable reasons.

Offering a video like that at YouTube, of course, is offering it to people who learned to trade online (for the most part), so it's not surprising that some of them will believe it!


Quoting Quickly
The author's a mathematical illiterate, who doesn't distinguish between "random" and "pseudorandom", and doesn't like to let inconvenient facts get in the way of a convenient "theory".

It isn't even a "theory", to be pedantic: it's just a long series of misunderstandings, undefined terms and pi$$ing in the wind.

The problem is that trying to explain that to people typically actually reinforces all their prejudices and mistaken beliefs. Michael Shermer has written books that explain why. Good luck, if you try. (I wouldn't.)
  • #5
  • Nov 11, 2017 1:33pm Nov 11, 2017 1:33pm
Quoting venividivici
Here we go, hundreds of pages of arguments coming up ..
Yup you are are right..........lol
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #6
  • Nov 11, 2017 1:48pm Nov 11, 2017 1:48pm
Good posts guys. I agree with you all.

He points out on the random charts you see support and resistance just like real charts,that traders look for. Elliot wave too. Its the same as real markets. A pro trader would not know the difference.He proves.A trader will want to believe what he wants to see.

Here is a comment from the video.


I traded over ten years. I had periods where I did quite well, but overall lost. I tried everything. I agree with your assessment 100%. Along the way I remember Al Greenspan say that predicting currency prices was impossible? I believe him now. I did enjoy it, oh the big dreams and the belief that I found the holy grail, many times, or so I thought.... but like you, I wish I spent my time and money elsewhere. Don't try convincing a newbie, they have to experience it themselves. Years later they will understand.
  • #7
  • Nov 11, 2017 2:13pm Nov 11, 2017 2:13pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Yup you are are right..........lol
My take on this is: Forex is mostly Random controlled by fear, greed, news, time zones, people awake or sleeping, holidays, trade ideas constantly changing, business trade, country trade, and inflation and trade balance between countries, etc.

But I do believe in large countries, large businesses, and the Market Maker moving price beyond the turning points and bringing it back to where price once was.

When price slowly climbs for several hours on end, and then in 1 hour, those 12 hours of climbing are wiped out. Another force is at work are my thoughts.

Also a major trend is not Random, everyone and their brother can't possibly get it right to create a large trend. Again, large countries, large businesses, and the Market Maker at work here.

My last thoughts are, all your indicators are screaming short by topping out, and the market will stop moving for hours. Then all of a sudden the market jumps even longer to only finally drop short the way you planned the trade, for you counter trend traders. I see this all the time. I believe the market makers are collecting shorts and hanging onto them, they pause the price action and then they add all of those shorts to create the reversal or create the new trend.

Your Thoughts Please ................................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #8
  • Nov 11, 2017 2:18pm Nov 11, 2017 2:18pm
Quoting goose4
Good posts guys. I agree with you all. He points out on the random charts you see support and resistance just like real charts,that traders look for. Elliot wave too. Its the same as real markets. A pro trader would not know the difference.He proves.A trader will want to believe what he wants to see. Here is a comment from the video. I traded over ten years. I had periods where I did quite well, but overall lost. I tried everything. I agree with your assessment 100%. Along the way I remember Al Greenspan say that predicting currency prices was impossible?...
You can follow the price action on multiple TF's and make money, my best year to date is 400% trading part time and running my UFO construction business, multiple stochastics and the understanding of them, will do that for you. It can be a painful trip but it is possible.
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #9
  • Edited 4:06pm Nov 11, 2017 2:19pm | Edited 4:06pm
Oh Boy -- get the pop corn out......... this is going to be vary entertaining

All markets are manipulated ---------- Manipulation = Non random

Its really as simple as that

Now back to the entertainment...........................................
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #10
  • Nov 11, 2017 3:07pm Nov 11, 2017 3:07pm
sorry i'm newbie
i just want to ask you this, if a guy from europe get paid a one million us dollar and he want to convert that million usd to euro, do that will effect the strength of the euro even if will effected by 0.(hunders of zeros)1 ? because as he convert the million usd to euro he's just buying the eurusd, is that right or not, cheers
  • #11
  • Edited 7:52pm Nov 11, 2017 7:28pm | Edited 7:52pm
Quoting goose4
A very interesting video. Enjoy.
Watched and debunked the video a long time ago.
  • #12
  • Nov 11, 2017 8:38pm Nov 11, 2017 8:38pm
Very interesting video....but to all my FX traders out there...I can say unequivocally that the FX market is not random. Drawing trendlines, fibos, etc. is not how you trade forex. You have to think outside the box!
  • #13
  • Nov 12, 2017 2:28am Nov 12, 2017 2:28am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} You can follow the price action on multiple TF's and make money, my best year to date is 400% trading part time and running my UFO construction business, multiple stochastics and the understanding of them, will do that for you. It can be a painful trip but it is possible.
Hey! Look who decided to show up.
You are travelling a lot with your ufo,take a break and stay around here.
Work smarter,not harder
  • #14
  • Nov 12, 2017 3:03am Nov 12, 2017 3:03am
Quoting marcof91
{quote} Hey! Look who decided to show up. You are travelling a lot with your ufo,take a break and stay around here.
+1
And you will leave pain to take care of itself.
  • #15
  • Nov 12, 2017 3:38am Nov 12, 2017 3:38am
Quoting goose4
Here is a comment from the video. I traded over ten years. I had periods where I did quite well, but overall lost. I tried everything. I agree with your assessment 100%. Along the way I remember Al Greenspan say that predicting currency prices was impossible? I believe him now. I did enjoy it, oh the big dreams and the belief that I found the holy grail, many times, or so I thought.... but like you, I wish I spent my time and money elsewhere. Don't try convincing a newbie, they have to experience it themselves. Years later they will understand....
He simply wasn't smart enough for it, simple as that.

And Greenspan is an overrated moron, can't believe they made us learn his non-sense in school.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #16
  • Nov 12, 2017 4:36am Nov 12, 2017 4:36am
Another thread where people argue whether the market is random or not without really understanding the term random they are debating on...
Attached Image
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #17
  • Nov 12, 2017 12:36pm Nov 12, 2017 12:36pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} My take on this is: Forex is mostly Random controlled by fear, greed, news, time zones, people awake or sleeping, holidays, trade ideas constantly changing, business trade, country trade, and inflation and trade balance between countries, etc. But I do believe in large countries, large businesses, and the Market Maker moving price beyond the turning points and bringing it back to where price once was. When price slowly climbs for several hours on end, and then in 1 hour, those 12 hours of climbing are wiped out. Another force is at work...
Very good post.

I thought it would be interesting for new traders to present the notion that random

generated data looks exactly like real markets. That a pro trader would not be able

to distinguish the difference with random charts vs real market charts.

That all the technical laws like Elliott wave,channels,fractals and support and resistance are seen on random charts.

Most of the folk here are noobs, so this will help them learn something.
__________________
  • #18
  • Nov 12, 2017 12:58pm Nov 12, 2017 12:58pm
Quoting goose4
{quote} Very good post. I thought it would be interesting for new traders to present the notion that random generated data looks exactly like real markets. That a pro trader would not be able to distinguish the difference with random charts vs real market charts. That all the technical laws like Elliott wave,channels,fractals and support and resistance are seen on random charts. Most of the folk here are noobs, so this will help them learn something. __________________
We have this same discussion at least once per month on ff.
In a similar test a few years ago one of the traders here was able to differentiate between generated charts vs. the real ones.
Cheers,
k
  • #19
  • Nov 12, 2017 8:53pm Nov 12, 2017 8:53pm
More threads on real vs RNG-created charts here and here, if anybody's interested.
  • #20
  • Nov 12, 2017 11:02pm Nov 12, 2017 11:02pm
You didn't "de-bunk" anything, except possibly your credibility. Study after study has shown market prices (stocks, commodities, forex) are random walks (use Wikipedia since you're probably unfamiliar with the term). The claims of technical analysis are absurd - past price movement has zero predictive power. Further, no serious finance or economics textbook discusses it. "Technical analysis" has no more to do with economics than voodoo has to do with medicine or flat-earthism has to do with geology. Now, if I'm wrong , then , please , show me the billions you've made in the market...
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