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  • #15,461
  • Nov 3, 2017 7:09am Nov 3, 2017 7:09am
Quoting bulltrader13
finally some movement {image}
took 90% out think I'll hold rest for a while as it's looking bearish on the dailies
  • #15,462
  • Nov 4, 2017 5:18pm Nov 4, 2017 5:18pm

  1. Oct 28, 2010 2:59pm

  1. https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...tar65794_6.gif Tony112
  2. Joined Apr 2008 | Status: sometimes... news come unexpected | 5,451 Posts

I hope this will be remembered in the famous quotes:

"Never underestimate the occurrence frequency of repetitive events consecutively ." Tony112, 2010

Interesting Quote from Jedi Tony

I'm not too concerned what kind of candlestick price has formed but I am co
  • #15,463
  • Nov 5, 2017 11:07pm Nov 5, 2017 11:07pm
I took a trade and accidentally entered an extra 0 in the amount, so my pips are with 10x as much. I missed the news but I'm trying for a normal straddle.
  • #15,464
  • Nov 6, 2017 9:33am Nov 6, 2017 9:33am
Good evening everyone.

What is the trade able news this week?

Have a good night!
  • #15,465
  • Nov 6, 2017 3:41pm Nov 6, 2017 3:41pm
Quoting Mmxxx
Oct 28, 2010 2:59pm {image} Tony112 Joined Apr 2008 | Status: sometimes... news come unexpected | 5,451 Posts I hope this will be remembered in the famous quotes: "Never underestimate the occurrence frequency of repetitive events consecutively ." Tony112, 2010 Interesting Quote from Jedi Tony

Yes, this is reality. Saw what happened to oil today?
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #15,466
  • Nov 6, 2017 3:43pm Nov 6, 2017 3:43pm
Quoting jacktrader1
thanks tony. let this post change the mind of naysayers. {image}
Amazing. Simply amazing and executed exactly as planned.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #15,467
  • Nov 6, 2017 3:53pm Nov 6, 2017 3:53pm
purple: 16 pip SL 120 pip TP

blue: chart monitoring, enter in breakout with a 7 to 10 pip SL, target at 120 TP
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3425twergvgfe434.gif Size: 29 KB
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #15,468
  • Nov 6, 2017 4:53pm Nov 6, 2017 4:53pm
Quoting Bigindoda
{quote} Hey Tony, Do you use other trading "strategy" like technical analysis or candlestick patterns S/R, etc.... or do you only use this news trading method?

No decorations. I only do that on my Christmas tree and I must admit even that is pretty reserved.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #15,469
  • Nov 6, 2017 5:34pm Nov 6, 2017 5:34pm
@ Tony112......Is there any way you can start to teach us how to separate the GOOD from the BAD? Learning how to read the news with your strategy would help us all in the long run. I notice that sometimes a certain news event will be on your black list and then the next time it is not. Any help would be much appreciated.

  • #15,470
  • Nov 6, 2017 9:33pm Nov 6, 2017 9:33pm
Monetary policies and unchanged interest rates bring a lot of confusion whipsaws.
Who votes that we eliminate them?
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #15,471
  • Nov 6, 2017 10:08pm Nov 6, 2017 10:08pm
Quoting Tony112
Monetary policies and unchanged interest rates bring a lot of confusion whipsaws. Who votes that we eliminate them?
I agree.
  • #15,472
  • Nov 7, 2017 2:55am Nov 7, 2017 2:55am
I am happy to continue trading the rate statements. Since you have a fairly good idea what, if any, interest rate move could happen. So if no move you will see little movement - then close out for a few pips up or down. Its really nothing compared to the upside IF they do move their rate. (see CAD last month).

However - with cable last week - there was going to be a move as it was signaled by the BOE. These are the difficult ones to trade and I believe should be left out - since you don't know whether the market has already built in the increase (most likely), but you cannot take the trade against the rate move as that is too risky. And banks love these type of rate releases as they can chase those weak stops all over the shop.

For the record - I'd keep the interest rate play in there - but remove the speeches and those rate releases where they show an actual rate move will happen. They can take you all over the place.

On RBA rate release I closed out at BE.
  • #15,473
  • Nov 7, 2017 7:43am Nov 7, 2017 7:43am
Quoting timmy
I am happy to continue trading the rate statements. Since you have a fairly good idea what, if any, interest rate move could happen. So if no move you will see little movement - then close out for a few pips up or down. Its really nothing compared to the upside IF they do move their rate. (see CAD last month). However - with cable last week - there was going to be a move as it was signaled by the BOE. These are the difficult ones to trade and I believe should be left out - since you don't know whether the market has already built in the increase...
How do you trade the interest rate ? Do you guess randomly or do some research and predict accordingly? I agree with your statement that like BOE rate hike last time it was expected and this type of event is distracting for us.
The master knows exactly the right time to do nothing.
  • #15,474
  • Nov 7, 2017 9:35am Nov 7, 2017 9:35am
Correction: text from speech - Poloz due at 12:55. Not 12:40
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #15,475
  • Nov 7, 2017 10:14am Nov 7, 2017 10:14am
Quoting Tony112
Correction: text from speech - Poloz due at 12:55. Not 12:40
This is the third time this week I've guessed right.
I've been getting about 20 pips to the good before it turns and stops me out at BE.
This one is looking like it may do the same.
I'm going to stay with it. If I start settling for 10 pips profit, I'll wind up losing in the long run.
  • #15,476
  • Nov 7, 2017 10:20am Nov 7, 2017 10:20am
Did it again- BE
  • #15,477
  • Nov 7, 2017 3:40pm Nov 7, 2017 3:40pm
Quoting Au.trader
{quote} How do you trade the interest rate ? Do you guess randomly or do some research and predict accordingly? I agree with your statement that like BOE rate hike last time it was expected and this type of event is distracting for us.
Over the years I have followed the general information on all the major central banks. This does not mean poring over their speeches or data - just keep a tab on interest rate expectations.

So for most of the central banks they will likely keep interest rates down for the mid term - but some are pushing higher from their extreme lows. For example the Fed has indicated it may start moving its interest rate up sometime over the next year. So I would go long on its news release for their rate statement (ie short cable or Euro/USD).

The same can be said of the BOE, as it just moved this month, which means there is a chance that they could take it another 25 points higher next month without saying anything. This also applies to the BOC for the CAD - which moved 25 points higher in September.

So there is absolutely no logic that they would reverse the rate move the following month. And so your risk is quite limited if you go with the 'rate flow' for that central bank.

The risk is minimal in most cases as you can just close if there is no immediate move, or like the CAD in September - get yourself 250 pips in an instant. By my reckoning there are about two or three of these a year on average (some years during aggressive central bank periods there has been many more) over the last two decades. The ones that don't move either go to BE or cost you a few pips to get out.

The problem trades are the ones with (a) other news releases at the same time - but I think an interest rate move should trump these, (b) when they flag an increase or decrease for the month. These ones cause whipsaw due to the banks taking advantage of indecisive risk (has it been factored in or will it move anyway???) and thus take out many weak positions that they can gobble up. Such was the case with cable this month.
  • #15,478
  • Nov 7, 2017 4:07pm Nov 7, 2017 4:07pm
Guys, this week didn't start well. For the well being of all traders here, I think I will suggest to restrict the list to:

NFP
Crude-Oil Inventories
Aud employment change
NZD employment change
GBP Claimant count
CAD cpi
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #15,479
  • Nov 7, 2017 4:17pm Nov 7, 2017 4:17pm
Quoting billbss
{quote} This is the third time this week I've guessed right. I've been getting about 20 pips to the good before it turns and stops me out at BE. This one is looking like it may do the same. I'm going to stay with it. If I start settling for 10 pips profit, I'll wind up losing in the long run.
It is interesting to see that those of us who trade in this manor for any reasonable period understand that they must take advantage of the clear risk reward factor that Tony constantly reminds everyone to stick with.

As you make the point here billbss - it is the road to ruin taking out small profits as this completely ruins the r:r for the trading method. I am trying to ensure I stay the course with these trades as often as possible. I will look to exit on major support or resistance if it does not breach it and also if there are other news events coming out that could impact on an open trade - otherwise I will stick with the trade to SL, BE, or TP.

So keep track of your r:r - I think if we can average out at over 1:3 - including any slippage of course - then we should be good for the long term.

For example if I win 1/4 of my trades, and 1/2 are losers and 1/4 go to BE - and for the trades that win the sequence was 30, 120, 40, 60, 120, 120 (assuming 50% of winners go to full target) = 490/6 = 82pips average profit. And for my losers over this same period would be 12 * 18(+~7 pips average slippage) = 300/12 = 25 pips average loss (obvious).

So then my r:r is nearly 1 : 3.3 ....game on.
  • #15,480
  • Nov 7, 2017 8:52pm Nov 7, 2017 8:52pm
So Oanda uses MT4 which means we can use EA's.

I'm having one built.

It allows you to choose a time to have a trade executed along with another of other inputs it then automatically manages the order based on.

Hidden stop loss option too!

Also, note that one can hedge with Oanda using a sub account. And other places in the world allow hedging.

Think about this. Based on my math it doubles predicted outcome per trade by getting rid of the coin flip.

Thoughts? Do you/have you ever hedged tony? Ever used an EA?
MW
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