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Trading Strategies Using Price Action & Order Flow

  • #61
  • Nov 5, 2017 6:30am Nov 5, 2017 6:30am
Hey Jacob

I am looking at shorting EURUSD on a break of 1.6 or break and then retest - I see a dbhlc (on daily)

Do you see 1.6 as major support or is the setup good enough (or maybe not?) to trade the 1st break ie with a sell stop at say 1.595?

Thanks

Steve

https://uk.tradingview.com/x/3wlaAxwX/
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  • #62
  • Nov 5, 2017 6:31am Nov 5, 2017 6:31am
Quoting jacob12
{quote} Thank you, that gives me the power to continue posting. I really hope I will be able to assist like I did until now. Best, Jacob
Your welcome - many thanks for sharing your knowledge
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  • #63
  • Nov 5, 2017 7:52am Nov 5, 2017 7:52am
Quoting FireEater
Hey Jacob I am looking at shorting EURUSD on a break of 1.6 or break and then retest - I see a dbhlc (on daily) Do you see 1.6 as major support or is the setup good enough (or maybe not?) to trade the 1st break ie with a sell stop at say 1.595? Thanks Steve https://uk.tradingview.com/x/3wlaAxwX/
Let's try that step by step...

Can you spot the FTA?

What do you think are goods and bads about that trade?

Best,
Jacob
  • #64
  • Nov 5, 2017 8:51am Nov 5, 2017 8:51am
Hi jacob12

This is my first post on FF and thank you for starting this thread. I know that i will learn a lot from you and those supporting this thread.

Could you please tell me what FTA stands for ?

Thanks
Gerald
  • #65
  • Nov 5, 2017 9:56am Nov 5, 2017 9:56am
Great journal. I am trying to start my own but apparently there's a minimum post requirement so enjoying yours in the mean time.
  • #66
  • Edited 1:11pm Nov 5, 2017 1:01pm | Edited 1:11pm
Quoting portergw
Hi jacob12 This is my first post on FF and thank you for starting this thread. I know that i will learn a lot from you and those supporting this thread. Could you please tell me what FTA stands for ? Thanks Gerald
Hwy portergw,

I hope to see you here alot and that you will have the benefit from this thread.

FTA stands for first trouble area, this is the area where price is likely to reverse, so we should take an action (TP, going to BE etc)

Hope that helped.

Best,
Jacob
  • #67
  • Nov 5, 2017 1:03pm Nov 5, 2017 1:03pm
Quoting JeffArthur
Great journal. I am trying to start my own but apparently there's a minimum post requirement so enjoying yours in the mean time.
Hey JeffArthur,

Thank you Sir.

I recommend opening a journal no matter if you are new or not

Hope to see you here in the future.

Best,
Jacob
  • #68
  • Nov 5, 2017 1:42pm Nov 5, 2017 1:42pm
Hi Jacob!

How would you go about trading GBPNZD?

On the weekly wee have an Engulfing Candle and on the Daily a small pinbar, even though the nose isn't very long after such a steep move downward.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzd daily.png Size: 80 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzd weekly.png Size: 55 KB
  • #69
  • Nov 5, 2017 1:54pm Nov 5, 2017 1:54pm
Quoting jacob12
{quote} Let's try that step by step... Can you spot the FTA? What do you think are goods and bads about that trade? Best, Jacob
Hey Jacob

I was looking at 1.45 as a first TP area - should price break below 1.58 There is clear space south between 1.6 and 1.45 on W and D

TP may be revised at 1.5 (big round number) depending on PA - some consolidation to the left on the daily

For me

price needs to break 1.58, (are the bads)

price is in a down trend, we have a dbhlc on daily, clear area to 1.45 as above (are the goods)
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  • #70
  • Nov 5, 2017 1:55pm Nov 5, 2017 1:55pm
Quoting TrendRider86
Hi Jacob! How would you go about trading GBPNZD? On the weekly wee have an Engulfing Candle and on the Daily a small pinbar, even though the nose isn't very long after such a steep move downward. {image} {image}
Hey TrendRider86,

This is again a case of just a pattern, we don't have it on a flip of support and resistance, so just for that alone I will pass.

In addition, the bar low sits on a flip zone (see the flip on the weekly of bar highs and bar lows), we couldn't close below last week low, which also sits on that flip.

Now, I will open the chart for a 4H TF and you can see that price had respected that area to the pip, can you see the flip of price, once resistance and now support?

As for the daily, it's a very small PB, look at the Red bar prior to it, how big it is, most odds that little PB won't win the fight over that big Red bar.

Hope that helps.

Best,
Jacob
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD.mWeekly.png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD.mH4.png Size: 53 KB
  • #71
  • Nov 5, 2017 2:13pm Nov 5, 2017 2:13pm
Quoting FireEater
{quote} Hey Jacob I was looking at 1.45 as a first TP area - should price break below 1.58 There is clear space south between 1.6 and 1.45 on W and D TP may be revised at 1.5 (big round number) depending on PA - some consolidation to the left on the daily For me price needs to break 1.58, (are the bads) price is in a down trend, we have a dbhlc on daily, clear area to 1.45 as above (are the goods)
Hey FireEater,

Here is how I see things:

First, it's just a bar pattern, we don't have a flip zone that jumps right away in front our eyes.

So... if we would just play it as a break of support which I had marked in my chart, indeed on the daily we had closed just below it.

Let's open the chart for the 4H TF, you will see that price had already tested that zone and it's now acts as resistance.

Our FTA should be around 1.1577 level, you are trading into the last swing low which isn't something I recommend new traders to do.

This pattern isn't in a swing high point where you want to go short but almost at the swing low point, you should be very quick with your SL & TP actions.

If I should summarize, this trade isn't a good one, if you wish to take it you must cut out if price will go higher than 1.615

Hope that helps.

Best,
Jacob
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.mDaily.png Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.mH4.png Size: 53 KB
  • #72
  • Nov 5, 2017 2:20pm Nov 5, 2017 2:20pm
I'm happy that you guys post charts and ask questions, many times I will say that the trade isn't good enough to take.

You have to realize that if you want to make it as your profession you should take only the A+ trades.

I have days and even weeks which I don't have a single trade, that's how that business works.

Imagine that you take a bunch of not that good trades and you are in a DD, you now have to recover from it fast and that's a hard thing to do, especially if you are tradeing for a living.

Best,
Jacob
  • #73
  • Nov 5, 2017 3:35pm Nov 5, 2017 3:35pm
Quoting jacob12
I'm happy that you guys post charts and ask questions, many times I will say that the trade isn't good enough to take. You have to realize that if you want to make it as your profession you should take only the A+ trades. I have days and even weeks which I don't have a single trade, that's how that business works. Imagine that you take a bunch of not that good trades and you are in a DD, you now have to recover from it fast and that's a hard thing to do, especially if you are tradeing for a living. Best, Jacob
Thanks Jacob - I very much appreciate the analysis. Its one of my faults - I "think" I see good setups and take too many trades (overtrade)

I am aiming for 4 or 5 great trades a month (may be less) I as you suggest on the previous post. Just need to learn spot the A+

Cheers
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  • #74
  • Nov 6, 2017 3:54am Nov 6, 2017 3:54am
Following all of our talk about A+ setup, there was a short opportunity in USDJPY, almost took it but decided not to get in since it wasn't perfect.

I will post charts later today, in addition, since i'm up almost 1.5R for the month, i'm willing not to trade that much.

Best,
Jacob
  • #75
  • Nov 6, 2017 3:56am Nov 6, 2017 3:56am
Quoting FireEater
{quote} Thanks Jacob - I very much appreciate the analysis. Its one of my faults - I "think" I see good setups and take too many trades (overtrade) I am aiming for 4 or 5 great trades a month (may be less) I as you suggest on the previous post. Just need to learn spot the A+ Cheers
Hey FireEater,

Patience is the best tool you can have as a trader.

Overtime, you will have an appropriate trading plan so you will know how to act in each setup you will see, that won't happen in just one day, it takes time to achieve it. Can be months if not years (took me years to become profitable)

Best,
Jacob
  • #76
  • Nov 6, 2017 2:03pm Nov 6, 2017 2:03pm
Quoting jacob12
Following all of our talk about A+ setup, there was a short opportunity in USDJPY, almost took it but decided not to get in since it wasn't perfect. I will post charts later today, in addition, since i'm up almost 1.5R for the month, i'm willing not to trade that much. Best, Jacob
Here is the charts, I start from the daily, we can see the flip of price around the box.

Drilling down to the 4H and 1H we can see those highs acts as resistance, they got taken out when price is breaking above them, one bar later price collapse below that level, you can see that entering short blindly on that level would have gotten you almost zero DD!

The reason why I didn't take it was we had a lot of mess below that can hold price from continue down.

Best,
Jacob
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily.png Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4.png Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1.png Size: 61 KB
  • #77
  • Nov 6, 2017 6:06pm Nov 6, 2017 6:06pm
Hey Jacob12 and everyone

I am liking the look of shorting a retest of 1.68 on EURNZD target 1.66 whats your view? I like the break of support at 1.68 after several tests of this area and a daily close below looking for a retest the short

https://uk.tradingview.com/x/x11NvrE7/

FireEater
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  • #78
  • Nov 6, 2017 6:26pm Nov 6, 2017 6:26pm
Quoting FireEater
Hey Jacob12 and everyone I am liking the look of shorting a retest of 1.68 on EURNZD target 1.66 whats your view? I like the break of support at 1.68 after several tests of this area and a daily close below looking for a retest the short https://uk.tradingview.com/x/x11NvrE7/ FireEater
Hello,

I think there's an important flip area around 1.67. I would wait for a breakout/retest at 1.67 before entering any trade.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/szXZBH26/
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  • #79
  • Nov 6, 2017 8:10pm Nov 6, 2017 8:10pm
Quoting elDIABLO21
{quote} Hello, I think there's an important flip area around 1.67. I would wait for a breakout/retest at 1.67 before entering any trade. https://www.tradingview.com/x/szXZBH26/
Thanks for sharing elDIABLO21

I'm always interested in other traders take - watching PA closely . I also like AUDNZD to the downside to 1.1? not until after RBA rate news though

FireEater
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  • #80
  • Nov 6, 2017 9:33pm Nov 6, 2017 9:33pm
Quoting FireEater
{quote} Thanks for sharing elDIABLO21 I'm always interested in other traders take - watching PA closely . I also like AUDNZD to the downside to 1.1? not until after RBA rate news though FireEater
This is my AUDNZD setup

https://www.tradingview.com/x/AQQmxRPh/

PA is stalled at 0.23fib 0.10743-0.10850, It seems momentum is bearish, but I need to see this level broken and tested before taking any trades. There are several FTA below
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