What works, and what doesn't | Page 13 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

variety of resources what works and what doesn't 98 replies

EA works on one broker, doesn't on another 4 replies

If it works, it works... 3 replies

EA Works, Then Doesn't 1 reply

Why an EA works for some currancies and not others? 10 replies

Attachments: What works, and what doesn't
Exit Attachments

What works, and what doesn't

  • #241
  • Edited 1:46pm Oct 14, 2017 7:33am | Edited 1:46pm
TRADING FLAGS...
Text book tells you flags are bullish, (in reality flags fail as much as they continue)
I love to trade failed flags..
You must wait for a Flag failure to have a low risk trade... Once you see the failure.. you can choose optimal place to enter..
The trade works because everybody is getting long at the top... and the break down provides and area to trap those traders.
important to see a spike back into your entry area... A slow grind back into entry area will often grind past your low risk area.. (I call it blowing a load into entry area!)
Best used on 15M + time frames

Dangers:
1. news.. If close to a big news release you probably should wait and not take a flag signal
2. Change of session.. If Asia London or USA is about to open the change in volitiity can make flag signals fail.
3. Real old flags from 2 days ago or more.. interday traders may put orders at a failed flag.. and if they don't hit by end of day pull the orders..
4. 2 flags in same spot.. This would be like a double top.. and market would want to get above to run stops..

Flag formation trade not set up yet waiting for failure
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: flag1.jpg Size: 61 KB


Flag trade example
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: flag2.jpg Size: 68 KB
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #242
  • Oct 14, 2017 1:26pm Oct 14, 2017 1:26pm
Gaining knowledge and experience and skills are the things to do and to expect the money too soon, it would be a really bad idea if you do so.
  • #243
  • Oct 16, 2017 3:55pm Oct 16, 2017 3:55pm
Lets Look how aud played out from the chart above? (see my above post for setup)
Just as planed.. got a flag failure.. pull back to low risk entry... and continued to 1st target


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: flag3.jpg Size: 108 KB
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #244
  • Oct 17, 2017 2:53am Oct 17, 2017 2:53am
Quoting bloodpoodle
Lets Look how aud played out from the chart above? (see my above post for setup) Just as planed.. got a flag failure.. pull back to low risk entry... and continued to 1st target {image}
what do the flag failure have something to do with the liquidity? is it because of lack of liquidity so that the gap shall be filled or because of liquidity so the gap shall be filled?
thanks
great loser,but not great dick~
  • #245
  • Edited 2:30pm Oct 20, 2017 12:19pm | Edited 2:30pm
The failure is just low risk points of entry... The gap in liquidity is the target..
I usually like to see the failure in the same session I'm trading... Rather then take a Asian failure in London session..
Markets have a lot more respect for failures in their own session. I divide day into 3 sessions Asian (usually best once china and japan stocks open) London, and USA.
Some of my worst trades is jumping in right before London or Asian open. then have price go the opposite way. Better to be a little patient and let the session show you its cards.

When you see a flag failure.. Your gonna have to ask yourself if anything may come along and mess it up.
Things that can mess up your trade....
1. a new market open
2. major data or news event
3. market close
then if you feel you have a window of opportunity then go for it.
A lot of times you won't have enough time for trade to play out into next event and will have to wait...
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #246
  • Oct 20, 2017 12:26pm Oct 20, 2017 12:26pm
Good week for me 14 trades, 13 wins, one loss of 1.6 pips.

A lot of waiting and doing nothing until perfect trade comes along... If I don't like what i'm seeing.. I go do something else untill next session.
You can't force the market... Just have to be patient till its giving you what you want

Attached Image
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #247
  • Oct 21, 2017 12:46pm Oct 21, 2017 12:46pm
Beware of sessions running out of gas....

We have all seen when a session runs out of gas and does the 5 pip thing for hours.
When this happens... Nothing you can do but wait .. can't force a trade...
Usually means market is pretty dead... and trader are waiting on next session to open.
If you see a 5 or 6 pip range forming for hours.. best to close the charts and play some Grand theft auto for a bit.

Volatility = Opportunity. Trading without volatility means that you trade without an edge.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #248
  • Nov 4, 2017 12:47am Nov 4, 2017 12:47am
One of the most important keys to success is Patience!

Patience for market to act how you want it to act is key. There are whole sessions I don't get a single trade in... Why?? No opportunity for my system.
Friday was a japan holiday Right before NFP. 1. Liquidity gets thin on holidays. 2. Nobody want to put on a huge position before major news.
Knowing this I figured I wouldn't get an asian trade in... And i didn't.
You can't force the market.. or hope that it will move... You gotta listen to signals market it whispering to you... And take only what market can give.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #249
  • Edited 2:06am Nov 4, 2017 1:17am | Edited 2:06am
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE.... WHAT THE BOOKS DON't TELL YOU..

Every book says buy support.. Sell Resistance... I say Sell area's of broken Support buy areas of broken resistance..
These area's are known as swap areas... Support becomes resistance/ resistance becomes support.
First off.. what is support? I define it as an area that has held up price over a period of time or sent price to a new high..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-11-03_23-03.jpg Size: 87 KB


Support FAILED.. then became resistance in chart above.

Not all Failed support becomes resistance... So you do have to be careful...
A lot of it is just screen time, time of day studies, and experience to know when this will happen...
They are good very low risk trades once you get the feel, but you need the screen time.. Need to watch 1000's of them.
Its not something you can just trade on day 1, Nothing is that simple in trading...
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #250
  • Nov 4, 2017 2:14am Nov 4, 2017 2:14am
Trade What you see / Trade what you Anticipate.. Which one? is right?

Which one? That depends.. But what ever you do keep the risk small.
Some levels Like failed support turning to resistance I will take on Anticipation of that level working.
Other levels.. I might want to see how price reacts before I jump in.
Both have a place in trading...
Often you can take anticipation trades with a less risk.. Price either behaves or it doesn't. You should know very quickly.
Best to plan the level in advance... Rather then just try to trade right now on anticipation... Price still needs to come to your level...
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #251
  • Nov 4, 2017 2:19am Nov 4, 2017 2:19am
Quoting bloodpoodle
I have done backtests of multiple systems trying to find what works and what doesn't work. The one thing I found is market likes to be efficient and doesn't like quick moves which are highly inefficient. Market likes to range 75% of the time So these quick inefficient moves often get faded right back into range. This is what my research has shown. If you have other research consisting of 1000 back tests in all market conditions please share! I'm looking for statistical proof of what works and what doesn't. Please post any research of 1000+ backtests...
You're speaking the truth, good thread.
Here's Tom with the weather.
  • #252
  • Nov 4, 2017 3:41am Nov 4, 2017 3:41am
Confidence works in Forex and Over or Under Confidence will never work. You need to have a good amount of practice to become successful in the Forex Trading and we also need to earn the experience and gain the loss.
  • #253
  • Nov 4, 2017 4:38am Nov 4, 2017 4:38am
Quoting bloodpoodle
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE.... good very low risk trades once you get the feel, but you need the screen time.. Need to watch 1000's of them. Its not something you can just trade on day 1, Nothing is that simple in trading...
Bloodpoodle,
Your trading strategy is similar to that of another trader on another forum who incorporates volatility analysis. Just google "WRB hidden gap".
  • #254
  • Nov 5, 2017 12:02am Nov 5, 2017 12:02am
Trading is just about finding buyers and sellers..
The chart clearly shows history of where they were at one time.
Will they still be there when price comes back?

What can cause them to not show up?

1. a new market open... London sellers may not show up once usa opens
2. market stalls right under that level for too long
3. Big news
4. too much time has passed and level is now days old...

So when you spot sellers (or buyers) you need that level to hit in the right ammount of time...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-11-04_21-56.jpg Size: 59 KB


There were shorts levels in chart below.. But the big long stall changed the odds.. and sellers pulled there order.
If the levels had hit sooner... May have worked better.
The game of day 2 was to trap the shorts in the big long consolidation.
Too much time had passed.. and orders were pulled.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #255
  • Nov 5, 2017 12:21am Nov 5, 2017 12:21am
Finding good levels
Sellers or a sqeeze?

IF a level takes too long to react... Be cautious..
Any level that takes 8 hours to react is a sqeeze/ stop run.. Not true selling.
I want levels to react fast.... 8 hours is way too long for me ..
I would not be interested in a retest of an 8 hour level with out some other sign...


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: stop run.jpg Size: 46 KB
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #256
  • Nov 5, 2017 12:27am Nov 5, 2017 12:27am
Quoting bloodpoodle
Finding good levels Sellers or a sqeeze? IF a level takes too long to react... Be cautious.. Any level that takes 8 hours to react is a sqeeze/ stop run.. Not true selling. I want levels to react fast.... 8 hours is way too long for me .. I would not be interested in a retest of an 8 hour level with out some other sign... {image}
I like your posts but could you post your entire chart so I can see the pair and timeframe you're looking at for comparison and following along? Thanks.
Here's Tom with the weather.
  • #257
  • Edited 1:23am Nov 5, 2017 1:50am | Edited 1:23am
No, I won't give you entire chart!
Whats stopping you from Finding 100 examples of what I'm showing... and doing your own studys on it?
Don't be so lazy... You'll never make it unless you study 100's and 1000's of charts!
Trading isn't easy... Requires lots of work... Lots of screen time...

example: Find mutipal charts where price stalls for at least 12 hours.. Do a study if levels works... or dosn't.. repeat 100 times..
record what you have learned... Is there anything you leaned that you may want to include in your system that you build???

The goal here is to understand how price moves in different situations... Do study's.. And the ones you relate to the most, you build your own system.
Other peoples systems never work... Only when you have a deep understanding of price movements can you build your own system from stuff you have leaned.

Even if I gave you my system, with out my knowledge and personal experience, You would fail...
Other peoples systems never work!
Once you learn this, You will be on the right path.
1. discover different market behaviors
2. do 100's of study's and record findings.
3. build a system that fits your personality and your knowledge.
I"m only here to to discuss #1. ---- #2 and #3 are up to you.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #258
  • Nov 5, 2017 1:00am Nov 5, 2017 1:00am
Quoting bloodpoodle
No, I won't give you entire chart! Whats stopping you from Finding 100 examples of what I'm showing... and doing your own studys on it? Don't be so lazy... You'll never make it unless you study 100's and 1000's of charts! Trading isn't easy... Requires lots of work... Lots of screen time...
Actually I was trying to help you out by couple of ideas but it's fine, I'll just read instead.
Here's Tom with the weather.
  • #259
  • Nov 5, 2017 1:43am Nov 5, 2017 1:43am
End of the week
Every weekend, when market is closed and you have a clear head.. you should review your weeks trades. winners and losers.
Then find out what you did right, wrong, and could have done bettter..
Winners..
1. was your entry good..
2. did it follow your plan.
3. Did you leave any pips on the table?
Losers.
1. Was it a trade that followed your system?
2. Was it a bad trade and why?
3. Identify the problem.. (FOMO - fear of missing out, not following system, revenge trading, lack of patience, gambling for the rush,
letting a loss run, trading huge news when you knew it was bad idea, over trading, trading too big, doubling down on a loser, entered too soon,
entered too late, boredom trade, ect...)
You got to identify these demons and Then you can form a plan on how to cast them out of your trades...
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #260
  • Edited 6:17pm Nov 10, 2017 5:25pm | Edited 6:17pm
Been a great November here!
This is what you want. A consistent chart.
without swings all over the place.

Attached Image
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
0 traders viewing now