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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #5,361
  • Nov 1, 2017 5:33am Nov 1, 2017 5:33am
It's a short. The hike has already been priced in. Market will go down even there's no hike because it'll question the BOE reliability and inability to make the right policies.
  • #5,362
  • Nov 1, 2017 9:25am Nov 1, 2017 9:25am
Quoting Lock
An important note. Last month (October) is an inside one. Its range is inside September range. So we are in a monthly balance: balance rules apply. October absolute extremes are 30269-3402. Any attempt above or below these levels has to be considered an attempted break.
Your info & observations, always great. We must keep this in mind when entering any position.
  • #5,363
  • Nov 1, 2017 9:39am Nov 1, 2017 9:39am
What a move down just now by GBP.
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  • #5,364
  • Nov 1, 2017 9:50am Nov 1, 2017 9:50am
Quoting rafael5643
What a move down just now by GBP.
It didn't test overnight high (GB high ) and liquidated below Tokyo low (overnight low). If no acceptation below overnight low 32665, that is it. It's over. If instead we will get acceptation below it we could see this liquidation morph into something more and in that case we have a huge amount of weaknesses left downside. Starting with yesterday pit session poor low 32377, followed by the 4 pass pit gap 32145-32242 and so on..
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  • #5,365
  • Nov 1, 2017 9:56am Nov 1, 2017 9:56am
Quoting Lock
{quote} It didn't test overnight high (GB high ) and liquidated below Tokyo low (overnight low). If no acceptation below overnight low 32665, that is it. It's over. If instead we will get acceptation below it we could see this liquidation morph into something more and in that case we have a huge amount of weaknesses left downside. Starting with yesterday pit session poor low 32377, followed by the 4 pass pit gap 32145-32242 and so on..
Great way to think about it, quite a bit of selling has already been absorbed. Like you said if it breaks down again it could be a very large move.
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  • #5,366
  • Nov 1, 2017 9:57am Nov 1, 2017 9:57am
Quoting Lock
{quote} It didn't test overnight high (GB high ) and liquidated below Tokyo low (overnight low). If no acceptation below overnight low 32665, that is it. It's over. If instead we will get acceptation below it we could see this liquidation morph into something more and in that case we have a huge amount of weaknesses left downside. Starting with yesterday pit session poor low 32377, followed by the 4 pass pit gap 32145-32242 and so on..
It also didn't reach th first inside week high (pit sessions) at 3327 that was the natural target for pit session after the failure below its low (the low of the first pit inside week) And this is strange. Sure it could happen but it strange. So carry forward this info if something will go wrong downside.
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  • #5,367
  • Nov 1, 2017 9:59am Nov 1, 2017 9:59am
I add a thing here: price is testing our mid level 32674 that yesterday was one of our targets coming from below. Acceptation above or below it will be a good indicator for the continuation of this session. And this level almost coincides with overnight low (Tokyo low 32665)
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  • #5,368
  • Nov 1, 2017 10:01am Nov 1, 2017 10:01am
C inside period of B: balance rules apply.

PS: note how balance rules apply in each and every timeframe, from month to 30m.
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  • #5,369
  • Nov 1, 2017 10:06am Nov 1, 2017 10:06am
Quoting Lock
C inside period of B: balance rules apply. PS: note how balance rules apply in each and every timeframe, from month to 30m.
Hi Lock, Can you point out any post / thread explaining balance rules in detail?
  • #5,370
  • Nov 1, 2017 10:06am Nov 1, 2017 10:06am
An other important level to monitor for acceptation above or below right now is yesterday pit unchanged 3281 that this morning cost me a lot. As it is October close price. And for now we have 2 periods closed below it so actually we already got acceptation below it. Let's see then.
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  • #5,371
  • Nov 1, 2017 10:08am Nov 1, 2017 10:08am
Quoting Lock
An other important level to monitor for acceptation above or below right now is yesterday pit unchanged 3281 that this morning cost me a lot. As it is October close price.
there is a possibility of touch of 1.32 before the statement tomorrow. either today after fomc or tomorrow morning asia
  • #5,372
  • Nov 1, 2017 10:18am Nov 1, 2017 10:18am
Quoting haathmilao
{quote} Hi Lock, Can you point out any post / thread explaining balance rules in detail?

I explained them so many times in this thread but actually I really don't know where. I should search for it. But maybe it's easier to repeat it now as it is very simple.

When you come into balance you have multiple scenarios. It could test an extreme of the balance and fail and in that case the natural direction after the failure is the opposite side of that balance. Or it could attempt above or below the balance and succeed and in this case, as a confirmation you want to see acceleration in the direction of the break and you must have a plan in order to monitor for continuation in the direction of this break.

A minor example here. C was inside period of B (we are speaking of m30 periods). So we were into a balance. From there D period attempted above C high and failed to continue any higher. So what? natural direction is the opposite side of C inside period and as you saw it went downside right in that direction.

Let me say here that balance rules should apply everywhere and anytime but you have to be aware of the context in which a balance has formed. Context is everything in markets.
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  • #5,373
  • Nov 1, 2017 10:41am Nov 1, 2017 10:41am
Quoting Lock
{quote} I explained them so many times in this thread but actually I really don't know where. I should search for it. But maybe it's easier to repeat it now as it is very simple. When you come into balance you have multiple scenarios. It could test an extreme of the balance and fail and in that case the natural direction after the failure is the opposite side of that balance. Or it could attempt above or below the balance and succeed and in this case, as a confirmation you want to see acceleration in the direction of the break and you must have...
Great, I am 100% clear on this now. Really Appreciated. I am loving & following this thread from the day i noticed. Keep it going.
  • #5,374
  • Nov 1, 2017 11:34am Nov 1, 2017 11:34am
Now, let's put some order into this situation: we obtained acceptation below yesterday pit unch (3281 October close level), We got acceptation below overnight low ( Tokyo low 32665). We have 2 back to back poor lows here, the current one and yesterday 32377. Plus we have a visible target down to the 4 pass pit gap (32145-32242). Finally below the gap we also have composite poc 3204 and yesterday Tokyo poor low 31917. Also we got acceptation below major level 32674. So many market generated information are pointing downside.

The only conflicting information is given by the fact that Pit session didn't reach the opposite side of the first inside pit week (3327) after the failure below its low. And this is suspect.

So, going downside is licit but carry forward the last info if something will go wrong downside.
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  • #5,375
  • Nov 1, 2017 12:08pm Nov 1, 2017 12:08pm
London closed at 3266 below October London close 3277. Note the last period G: it went upside probably because GB daily participants closed their shorts going home flat.
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  • #5,376
  • Nov 2, 2017 3:03am Nov 2, 2017 3:03am
As 3266 is yes GB close monitor for acceptation or rejection above it.
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  • #5,377
  • Nov 2, 2017 6:23am Nov 2, 2017 6:23am
Quoting Lock
Now, let's put some order into this situation: we obtained acceptation below yesterday pit unch (3281 October close level), We got acceptation below overnight low ( Tokyo low 32665). We have 2 back to back poor lows here, the current one and yesterday 32377. Plus we have a visible target down to the 4 pass pit gap (32145-32242).
Quoting Lock
Finally below the gap we also have composite poc 3204 and yesterday Tokyo poor low 31917. Also we got acceptation below major level 32674. So many market generated information are pointing downside.
Quoting Lock
The only conflicting information is given by the fact that Pit session didn't reach the opposite side of the first inside pit week (3327) after the failure below its low. And this is suspect. So, going downside is licit but carry forward the last info if something will go wrong downside.
Quoting Lock
As 3266 is yes GB close monitor for acceptation or rejection above it.
So after the rejection above yes GB close 3266 price went down to brexit low 32273 filling the old gap upside from Tuesday GB session high and leaving upside a new GB gap downside from yesterday GB session low 32805. By the way a portion of the old gap upside remained in place becoming a double pass gap. a potential zone of interest for upcoming action.

Note anyway that we are going to open PreUS session (with a lot of news inside it) and right now we are around the 4 pass pit gap 32145-32242, announced yesterday as a concrete potential target. So a potential zone of interest for upcoming Pit session (14:30+1GMT)

Also note that we are not so far from composite poc 3204.
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  • #5,378
  • Nov 2, 2017 6:33am Nov 2, 2017 6:33am
Quoting Lock
......and right now we are around the 4 pass pit gap 32145-32242, announced yesterday as a concrete potential target. So a potential zone of interest for upcoming Pit session (14:30+1GMT) Also note that we are not so far from composite poc 3204.
And here we are at composite poc 3204
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  • #5,379
  • Nov 2, 2017 6:40am Nov 2, 2017 6:40am
Quoting Lock
..... Finally below the gap we also have composite poc 3204 and yesterday Tokyo poor low 31917. Also we got acceptation below major level 32674. So many market generated information are pointing downside. The only conflicting information is given by the fact that Pit session didn't reach the opposite side of the first inside pit week (3327) after the failure below its low. And this is suspect. So, going downside is licit but carry forward the last info if something will go wrong downside.

And Here we are to Tokyo poor low 31917 too. Gb profile very elongated downside, numerous anomalies left upside. Watch out for correction.
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  • #5,380
  • Nov 2, 2017 6:45am Nov 2, 2017 6:45am
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