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  • #15,401
  • Oct 31, 2017 11:06am Oct 31, 2017 11:06am
Quoting jacktrader1
hey tony, great fan of yours. just wanna say. but may i ask why you rather not play the US red news (on CB Consumer Confidence)? could you share how you pick your news and filter them? sorry if this is asked before..

Some red news should be yellow or orange in my opinion. I have a load of experience in filtering the cream of the crop and I know what normally moves the market. Keep in mind that from time to time, even the heaviest news, such as NFP, can have almost no impact if the results come close to the expectations.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #15,402
  • Oct 31, 2017 11:09am Oct 31, 2017 11:09am
Quoting Tony112
{quote} Some red news should be yellow or orange in my opinion. I have a load of experience in filtering the cream of the crop and I know what normally moves the market. Keep in mind that from time to time, even the heaviest news, such as NFP, can have almost no impact if the results come close to the expectations.
Is there any way you can start to teach us how to separate the GOOD from the BAD? Learning how to read the news with your strategy would help us all in the long run. I too notice that sometimes a certain news event will be on your black list and then the next time it is not. Any help would be much appreciated.
  • #15,403
  • Oct 31, 2017 11:11am Oct 31, 2017 11:11am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} Is there any way you can start to teach us how to separate the GOOD from the BAD? Learning how to read the news with your strategy would help us all in the long run. I too notice that sometimes a certain news event will be on your black list and then the next time it is not. Any help would be much appreciated.
To be honest you can just go back and look at the charts. I looked back at previous CB confidence releases - last Tuesday of each month - and you can see hardly any move in the price.
  • #15,404
  • Oct 31, 2017 11:12am Oct 31, 2017 11:12am
Quoting bulltrader13
{quote} To be honest you can just go back and look at the charts. I looked back at previous CB confidence releases - last Tuesday of each month - and you can see hardly any move in the price.
and there is a helpful drop down on the calendar to show previous dates
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  • #15,405
  • Oct 31, 2017 4:53pm Oct 31, 2017 4:53pm
Got it wrong was in profit for second then -12 loss
  • #15,406
  • Oct 31, 2017 4:59pm Oct 31, 2017 4:59pm
Went short and got stopped on NZ Employment. Slipped 0.9 of a pip so not bad.

Took reverse trade for 10 pips so lost only 7 pips net (didn't stay in long for reverse trade as against primary trend).

Spread widened to about 13 pips briefly so may not trade NZ news if it continues to do that (or it may have just been a function of the strong result). Will take note and assess over next few weeks for NZ news.

On to crude oil for me. What instrument is preferred for this. I was going to trade USD/CAD but would Brent or West Texas be better???
  • #15,407
  • Oct 31, 2017 5:11pm Oct 31, 2017 5:11pm
Just a note - had you straddled the NZ employment news depending on where/when you activated your straddle trades you would likely have been facing a double loss.

I am happy to trade the one side and go for maximum return on news 'shock value'. And maximum leverage (once I build out to that). I understand your argument Tony.

Bulltrader - you got stopped at -12. Did you move your stop just as it reversed? I could have done this also - but waited in case there was another bolt down (but alas it reversed and pushed higher with the correct side of the news release).
  • #15,408
  • Oct 31, 2017 5:12pm Oct 31, 2017 5:12pm
Quoting timmy
Went short and got stopped on NZ Employment. Slipped 0.9 of a pip so not bad. Took reverse trade for 10 pips so lost only 7 pips net (didn't stay in long for reverse trade as against primary trend). Spread widened to about 13 pips briefly so may not trade NZ news if it continues to do that (or it may have just been a function of the strong result). Will take note and assess over next few weeks for NZ news. On to crude oil for me. What instrument is preferred for this. I was going to trade USD/CAD but would Brent or West Texas be better???
I think Tony recommends Brent.
  • #15,409
  • Oct 31, 2017 5:22pm Oct 31, 2017 5:22pm
Quoting billbss
{quote} I think Tony recommends Brent.
Thanks billbss. So to clarify - trading Brent on Crude Oil news release if Actual is worse than Expected the market will take it short, yes?
  • #15,410
  • Edited 7:24pm Oct 31, 2017 6:39pm | Edited 7:24pm
Quoting timmy
Just a note - had you straddled the NZ employment news depending on where/when you activated your straddle trades you would likely have been facing a double loss. I am happy to trade the one side and go for maximum return on news 'shock value'. And maximum leverage (once I build out to that). I understand your argument Tony. Bulltrader - you got stopped at -12. Did you move your stop just as it reversed? I could have done this also - but waited in case there was another bolt down (but alas it reversed and pushed higher with the correct side of the...
Hey Timmy

Yeah you are right about NZD news releases, normally massive spreads or slippage on retail brokers as only NZ banks are giving liquidity to the markets at this time. NZD inflation next week is released later in the day and is a viable trade in my opinion. From my experience you may get on ave 2 highly probably trades a week so as Tony is saying pick your trades carefully. There isn't a formula for what the best trades are as it can vary on for brokerage and obviously how accurate the forecasts are. I found during GBP and USD crossover your will get massive slippage so makes GBP news hard to trade. GBP also has a tendency to have multiple news releases at the same time making large whipsaws. Like with Tony I find CAD news to be a highly probable trade, I also trade AUD news as you tend to get filled near your orders during this time.

A lot of countries central banks use inflation targeting as their primary way of controlling money supply. Impact news is the ones that affect inflation and thus interest rates. CPI, GDP, Employment, Retail Sales, these are the big ones for inflation targeting countries. You will see that JPY doesn't move that much for these types of news as they don't implement the same monetary control as AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP and USD. JPY moves more on central bank rhetoric and risk on risk off appetite.

Anyway my suggestion is to immerse yourself in all the forums and financial news websites and understand why the markets move and be prepared to spend 3-4 years before it all starts coming together. For me the key was trading less, finding the highly probably trades and only trading them, increasing my lot sizes over time so that each highly probable trade now has become a nice money earner. Also your brokerage will play a large part, if you don't have a broker you can work with it won’t work. Don’t just stick with forex, there are many other large anomalies in markets that you can take advantage of.

Best of Luck
'Stability breeds Instability' Hyman Minsky
  • #15,411
  • Oct 31, 2017 7:47pm Oct 31, 2017 7:47pm
Quoting timmy
{quote} Thanks billbss. So to clarify - trading Brent on Crude Oil news release if Actual is worse than Expected the market will take it short, yes?
Timmy,
I don't trade it, so I don't know.
I would think if inventories are less than expected, the price will go up.
  • #15,412
  • Nov 1, 2017 4:01am Nov 1, 2017 4:01am
morning all.

Going long Cable for manufacturing PMI
Shorting UJ for ADP
then lastly going long UJ for ISM

Ignoring FOMC that b@tch prob going to whipsaw like a mofo
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  • #15,413
  • Nov 1, 2017 4:31am Nov 1, 2017 4:31am
Quoting bulltrader13
morning all. Going long Cable for manufacturing PMI Shorting UJ for ADP then lastly going long UJ for ISM Ignoring FOMC that b@tch prob going to whipsaw like a mofo {image}
1st one is good
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  • #15,414
  • Nov 1, 2017 4:48am Nov 1, 2017 4:48am
Quoting timmy
Went short and got stopped on NZ Employment. Slipped 0.9 of a pip so not bad. Took reverse trade for 10 pips so lost only 7 pips net (didn't stay in long for reverse trade as against primary trend). Spread widened to about 13 pips briefly so may not trade NZ news if it continues to do that (or it may have just been a function of the strong result). Will take note and assess over next few weeks for NZ news. On to crude oil for me. What instrument is preferred for this. I was going to trade USD/CAD but would Brent or West Texas be better???

Brent crude oil is the one that slips the less and has the most effect.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #15,415
  • Nov 1, 2017 4:52am Nov 1, 2017 4:52am
Quoting ALFtrade
{quote} Hey Timmy Yeah you are right about NZD news releases, normally massive spreads or slippage on retail brokers as only NZ banks are giving liquidity to the markets at this time. NZD inflation next week is released later in the day and is a viable trade in my opinion. From my experience you may get on ave 2 highly probably trades a week so as Tony is saying pick your trades carefully. There isn't a formula for what the best trades are as it can vary on for brokerage and obviously how accurate the forecasts are. I found during GBP and USD crossover...

This text was like candy to my brain.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #15,416
  • Nov 1, 2017 5:57am Nov 1, 2017 5:57am
Hi Tony and the other traders.

The Oil Inventories trade this afternoon, do you recommend UsdCad?

Thanks for this forum, I think it is a new way of looking at the market.

Thanks

Nicolaas
  • #15,417
  • Nov 1, 2017 6:23am Nov 1, 2017 6:23am
Quoting ALFtrade
{quote} Hey Timmy Yeah you are right about NZD news releases, normally massive spreads or slippage on retail brokers as only NZ banks are giving liquidity to the markets at this time. NZD inflation next week is released later in the day and is a viable trade in my opinion. From my experience you may get on ave 2 highly probably trades a week so as Tony is saying pick your trades carefully. There isn't a formula for what the best trades are as it can vary on for brokerage and obviously how accurate the forecasts are. I found during GBP and USD crossover...
Hi ALFtrade,

Thanks for that - really appreciate your comments. What other instruments do you look to trade for news releases?

I was aware that the liquidity pool for NZ trades are limited and so there is more chance of risk. You make a good point about picking your trades and I will review & refine my news trade choices over the coming few months. Currently I don't trade speeches nor do I trade multiple news release info (well most of the time - some do present a reasonable chance for a trade).

Interest rate releases are worth the risk if you are aware of the potential direction for a change. These are fairly easy to assess when you read up on the relevant central bank rate info and movement over the last year. And often in the past i have found if there is no move in the rate then you have time to close out with either a small win or small lose. So well worth a trade for a potential decent move - and very likely to happen only in the direction I pick. CAD rate move last month was a classic example. They were never going to reduce the rate - and the likely outcome was for no move - but they hiked the rate 25 base points. Result the market moved 230 pips in five minutes. Doesn't happen often but worth it when it does move. We might get a surprise once or twice a year across the big seven.

So saying this - it is difficult to take a trade on the Cable rate release later in the week as they have a built in expectation for a rate hike. If it goes as expected then the market could easily move against expectation as it chases weak stops and risk may already be built in - so it could move to the short side. Or they do not move the rate and it could tank. Or they could move it 50 bp instead of the expected 25 bp - and it could sky rocket. So hard to call for this one (when a move is actually factored in)!!
  • #15,418
  • Nov 1, 2017 7:15am Nov 1, 2017 7:15am
stopped at 12
  • #15,419
  • Nov 1, 2017 8:39am Nov 1, 2017 8:39am
Quoting bulltrader13
morning all. Going long Cable for manufacturing PMI Shorting UJ for ADP then lastly going long UJ for ISM Ignoring FOMC that b@tch prob going to whipsaw like a mofo {image}
think of shorting GU rather than buying UJ
  • #15,420
  • Nov 1, 2017 9:04am Nov 1, 2017 9:04am
Quoting bulltrader13
{quote} think of shorting GU rather than buying UJ
Well Im in though not looking healthy
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