Pivot Trading

Thanks!

Green pips to you!

Hearing that the tax cut in the US will be phased in years, not good for the USD

EG might be planning to go north..

you should always be aware of events so whatever you say or think should have that as a background. BOE rate decision on Thurs which is expected to raise .25 to .5 in which case should this occur 85 likely on EG
so nothing is being planned now

GM guys
despite of stellar US data today UJ is having hard time going north.That in itself shows USD bulls are thinning out.

EA may present an opertunity
nice bounce but need higher at least 53
when price is in no mans land between pivots like now I don't place trades.

Respected Davit Sir,
I am 9.30hrs ahead you(India GMT+5.30)...
I downloaded all the indis & template too.I am posting UJ chart ...& I haven't changed anything like "Broker's Candle=False"...I kept everything as it is default.I feel it's fine. But still is there any need to change in Broker's Candle & Time?....Then plz do guide me.

Hi Davit and Friends,

I just wanted to share Chart make-over:



I hope this is a lot better than the before cluttered chart.

Cheers !
- John

Looks good but not sure looking at red chart is good on the eyes...maybe less intrusive color? Like warm grey?light brown?
anyway as long as you like it
psychologically red is associated with danger so unconsciously you might take trading as dangerous activity which is total opposite of Mark D teachings.
We should strive to perceive the market neutral so calming color sets the tone...

Hi, David, i'm trying to study (with great difficulty) how to use foundamental analysis and how to integrate it with technical analysis; but I don't know how to distinguish those I have to avoid, from those that I can integrate in my analysis. Do you have any advice that can help me please?
And by " should this occur 85 likely" do you mean the price of eg?
thank you

Thanks Davit ! I think I have it now. And thanks for sharing Mark Douglas' insights !

Tah...dah :



Gratefully,
- John

There are key events that needs attention
Its also Davit not David...Pay attention to details starting from my name and everything else!
Below is a copy paste but a good one.


1.Central Bank Rate Decision

Each month the various Central Banks of the world’s economies meet to decide over the interest rates they are responsible for. The decision they have to make is whether to leave rates unchanged, raise rates or lower rates and the outcome of this decision is extremely important to the currency of the economy and as such, to traders.

An increase in rates is generally seen as bullish for the currency (meaning it will increase in value) and a decrease in rates is generally bearish for the currency (meaning it will decrease in value) whilst an unchanged decision can be either bullish or bearish depending on the perception of the economy at the time.

Whilst the actual decision itself is crucial, so too is the accompanying policy statement here the Central Bank gives it’s overview of the economy and how they view the future outlook. This is also where monetary policy is announced, which concerns vital matters such as the implementation of QE, which we explain thoroughly in our Forex Mastercourse.

Some of the best trades you can make come from rate decisions, for example, since the ECB cut the EuroZone rate to 0.05% in September 2014, EURUSD has since fallen by over 2000 pips.



2.GDP

The Gross Domestic Product is an important indicator of economic health in a country. A country’s central bank has expected growth outlooks each year that determine how fast a country should grow, as measured by GDP.

When GDP falls below market expectations, currency values tend to fall and when GDP outdoes expectations, currency values tend to rise. As such this figure’s release is keenly observed by currency traders and can be used to cautiously anticipate Central Bank movements.

When Japan’s GDP shockingly shrunk 1.6% in November 2014, the JPY fell sharply against the Dollar as traders anticipated further Central Bank intervention.



3.CPI (Inflation Data)

Consumer Price Index is the most widely used inflation measure out of the various economic indicators. The index gives information about the historical average prices paid by consumers for a basket of market goods and highlights whether the same goods are costing more or less for consumers.

Central Banks monitor this release to help guide them in their rate and policy setting. If inflation is seen to be evident, and moving beyond a certain target then interest rate rises are used to counter this.

In November 2014, Canadian CPI beat market expectations of 2.2% and came in at 2.3% with Canadian Dollar subsequently traded up to a six year high against the Japanese Yen.



4.Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate of a country is crucial to markets given its importance to Central Banks as an indicator of the health of an economy. Higher employment leads to interest rate rises as Central Banks aim to balance inflation with growth and as such this figure draws huge market attention from traders.

Alongside the Unemployment rate the two most important labour statistics are the US ADP and NFP figures released each month with the NFP taking prime position. This figure is so important we do an NFP preview each month giving you our analysis on the release and how to trade it. Given the market’s current attention to the likely date of a Fed rate hike, this figure is growing in importance each month.

The ADP data is considered an important predictive tool for the NFP as it is released beforehand.



5.FOMC Meeting

Although the Central Bank meetings of all economies are extremely important, America’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting takes canter stage as the US Dollar is currently the world’s reserve currency.

Each month the committee meets to set rates and to give it’s pronouncement on current economic conditions and the effectiveness of current monetary policy, casting an eye forward to expectations of future economic conditions and adjoining monetary policy.
The committee is made up of members which vote at each meeting with “Hawkish” members those in favour of a rate rise and “Dovish” members those favouring a lowering of rates.

The statement released by the Committee is keenly scrutinized by traders looking for clues as to how the Central Bank will behave in future and even the most seemingly inconsequential of terminology can cause large market moves, as seen recently concerning the Fed’s usage and then removal of the term “patient”, regarding rate hikes.

FOMC meetings can cause huge market volatility as seen on March 18th 2015 when EURUSD spiked up 400 pips in a matter of minutes as markets perceived the meeting to be USD negative.

These Central Bank meetings are where we also learn about any changes in monetary policy, such as the announcement of quantitative easing. This is extremely important to currency traders and we explain this topic fully within our course.

Since the ECB announced their latest QE program on Jan 22nd of this year, EURUSD has fallen by over 600 pips

The key thing with all economic indicators and news releases is not just what the actual release means but how the market anticipates the release and subsequently reacts to it, this is where the trading opportunities are created. It can be extremely difficult for new traders seeking to trade news events as the volatility and uncertainty can be overwhelming, fortunately with enough experience one can gauge the market better.

I have been telling people to outline key red events every week and be aware how that might effect price.This is trading 101
Do you want your waiter to know what's in the dish in case of allergies or you want an ignorant waiter who could possibly kill someone by wrong answer.
If trading is your passion then put some work and educate yourself!

Not everything is in the chart! You can't simply trade technicals by being ignorant of fundamentals.You must be aware of your trading environment!at all times.

you are good off by few pips but that's nothing.

Every major more or less is compressed coiled and ready to spring up.
Strong support on AU at 7650 or close to 38s
notice long rejected candle tails

Very excellent information Sir, just like financial essay on FX.
Very informative post Sir.
Thanks

But will be worth important if it's gonna to match with you perfectly.Plz suggest me setting.
Thanks Sir.

Another technique I use when trying to sell a bounce is to measure fibs from latest swing.
EA
5283 or 5280 key number to watch.
If you want your fib tool to show price like mine simply add symbols %$ (yellow in properties)

Trading is about paying attention.I already said you are good actually you are spot on off by few pips. Anything under 10pips +- is acceptable but you want me to figure out your time zone your broker etc etc so you are exact as mine? Really?
You sent me 3 PM's !!
You are removed from here!

GBPNZD

GBPAUD