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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #33,461
  • Edited 5:16pm Oct 27, 2017 12:47pm | Edited 5:16pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
OK Traders I'm done for the week. I said I would be completely transparent this month and show you my performance so here is how we are so far in 19 days of trading. $113,645 /150 per point = 758 points 758 points / 19 days so far = 39.89+ daily average points. I also did not trade every day but they must still be counted. {image}
Fantastic! Not the dollar amounts, just the proportion winner/losers, average win/average loss ...
A true inspiration and motivation for us all
When I look at my own results and compare I burst in laughing very loudly.
On one hand out of frustration , on the other hand because of intense belief in a bright future.
Thanks!
  • #33,462
  • Oct 27, 2017 4:45pm Oct 27, 2017 4:45pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Short {image}
So this trade here, I'm thinking you were looking at longer term order flow and took the rotation down, but didn't expect test of structure since you trailed it early. Is this correct? It looks like a pullback and NSH was expected on immediate order flow.
  • #33,463
  • Oct 27, 2017 5:16pm Oct 27, 2017 5:16pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
OK Traders I'm done for the week. I said I would be completely transparent this month and show you my performance so here is how we are so far in 19 days of trading. $113,645 /150 per point = 758 points 758 points / 19 days so far = 39.89+ daily average points. I also did not trade every day but they must still be counted. {image}
Wow Mr. Pip!
This is the kind of stats I have never seen before and never thought it’s possible.

Usually a 70% win rate, your average $ loss trade should be higher than average $ win trade. But you can get a high win rate with > 1 win loss ratio.

Is this just an average month for you?
  • #33,464
  • Oct 27, 2017 5:24pm Oct 27, 2017 5:24pm
Quoting PeterT
{quote} Fantastic! Not the dollar amounts, just the proportion winner/losers, average win/average loss ... A true inspiration and motivation for us all When I look at my own results and compare I burst in laughing very loudly. On one hand out of frustration , on the other hand because of intense belief in a bright future. Thanks!
If I could do it so can you. You all can get there I am paving the road for you all.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #33,465
  • Oct 27, 2017 5:29pm Oct 27, 2017 5:29pm
Quoting csternfx
{quote} So this trade here, I'm thinking you were looking at longer term order flow and took the rotation down, but didn't expect test of structure since you trailed it early. Is this correct? It looks like a pullback and NSH was expected on immediate order flow.
The intraday expectation had failed as the market put in a NSH, The longer term also experienced a failure producing a NSL. So not we have two different expectations and since the market had come into structure and ratio exhaustion along with the golden zone whish was consistent with the expectation of the deep correction of the longer term it was the best option. From an intraday point of view the expectation was also for a deep correction higher low and that is what I traded. the correction. Got taken out at my lock in point.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #33,466
  • Oct 27, 2017 5:32pm Oct 27, 2017 5:32pm
Quoting lithium1
{quote} Wow Mr. Pip! This is the kind of stats I have never seen before and never thought it’s possible. Usually a 70% win rate, your average $ loss trade should be higher than average $ win trade. But you can get a high win rate with > 1 win loss ratio. Is this just an average month for you?
Yes, this is a typical month, the important thing is RR better being then a 1:1 and living in the 70%+ strike rate and you can print money. People just can't understand what really matters in trading.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #33,467
  • Oct 27, 2017 5:57pm Oct 27, 2017 5:57pm
Quoting PeterT
{quote} Nice Sheeep44! It's going in the right direction! Here's my graph of account balance of the last two weeks. Seems like we're finding support at the initial balance level {image} EDIT: I'm also not posting this to show off
glad you showed this peter. Inspires me to keep plugging away at what i'm doing too. had a BE month on my preferred contract, but I explored a couple other currencies. That was a bad idea.

I should rejoin you guys on YM via sim. Saving up to be able to fund a position and some drawdown buffer.
  • #33,468
  • Oct 27, 2017 7:30pm Oct 27, 2017 7:30pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} I don't keep a journal because what value does it really serve? Unless you attach the a screen shot of the chart with the notes it's really serves no real value because when you do go back you have no memory of those trades and if you messed up or not. I focus on the decision making and the discipline. I focus on reviewing my session and see if my plan was followed. I focus on staying above 70% strike rate which as long as I follow the expectation should remain constant and lastly I focus on having a daily positive average. This is the key...
I say this is a good way of calculating potential gain. I counted my Daily Average for this month using this method and I got 4.44 pips daily average (Most trades are EURJPY/USDJPY and some EURUSD). Last month I had better daily average but still I am really happy with this result. If I can continue this positive daily average result, I guess it just comes down to being funded and I'd be trading for a living from then on :-)

Thank you Mr. Pip for this thread.
  • #33,469
  • Oct 27, 2017 7:42pm Oct 27, 2017 7:42pm
Quoting johnnydus3d
{quote} I say this is a good way of calculating potential gain. I counted my Daily Average for this month using this method and I got 4.44 pips daily average (Most trades are EURJPY/USDJPY and some EURUSD). Last month I had better daily average but still I am really happy with this result. If I can continue this positive daily average result, I guess it just comes down to being funded and I'd be trading for a living from then on :-) Thank you Mr. Pip for this thread.
You got it! Welcome.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #33,470
  • Oct 27, 2017 7:42pm Oct 27, 2017 7:42pm
Quoting johnnydus3d
{quote} I say this is a good way of calculating potential gain. I counted my Daily Average for this month using this method and I got 4.44 pips daily average (Most trades are EURJPY/USDJPY and some EURUSD). Last month I had better daily average but still I am really happy with this result. If I can continue this positive daily average result, I guess it just comes down to being funded and I'd be trading for a living from then on :-) Thank you Mr. Pip for this thread.
You got it! Your welcome.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #33,471
  • Oct 27, 2017 7:49pm Oct 27, 2017 7:49pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Yes, this is a typical month, the important thing is RR better being then a 1:1 and living in the 70%+ strike rate and you can print money. People just can't understand what really matters in trading.
Thanks Mr.Pip, you have shown us it doesn’t need a lot of fund to trade full time. I used to think in the long run, trading can only generate around 20-30% return per year. With your kind of stats. We don’t need so much fund to trade for living.

So now we just need to keep believing and keep learning and trying. Never give up!
  • #33,472
  • Oct 27, 2017 8:44pm Oct 27, 2017 8:44pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} I don't keep a journal because what value does it really serve? Unless you attach the a screen shot of the chart with the notes it's really serves no real value because when you do go back you have no memory of those trades and if you messed up or not. I focus on the decision making and the discipline. I focus on reviewing my session and see if my plan was followed. I focus on staying above 70% strike rate which as long as I follow the expectation should remain constant and lastly I focus on having a daily positive average. This is the key...
Sorry Mr. P, I'm afraid the math doesn't really work that way. Anything less than 22 would yield less than 1 pip per day per your calculation (which isn't great). You'd have to go negative after commisions to get a negative daily average.

Other than that, it is a fine way to count your daily average, especially if it is your sole income stream.

I think somewhere in FF, there was the saying, you can get rich (or at least live comfortably) on 10 pips a day.
  • #33,473
  • Oct 27, 2017 8:59pm Oct 27, 2017 8:59pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} The intraday expectation had failed as the market put in a NSH, The longer term also experienced a failure producing a NSL. So not we have two different expectations and since the market had come into structure and ratio exhaustion along with the golden zone whish was consistent with the expectation of the deep correction of the longer term it was the best option. From an intraday point of view the expectation was also for a deep correction higher low and that is what I traded. the correction. Got taken out at my lock in point.
Thanks for taking the time to explain. I understand the trade. Just need to beat my rules into my head.
  • #33,474
  • Oct 27, 2017 9:09pm Oct 27, 2017 9:09pm
It helps a lot if you can write all the trading rules and plan down. And read it once everyday before your trading session. And then when you are done trading, look back on your trades when it's still fresh in your mind, and refer back your trading plan, see if you follow them well.

After 50 trades, if you are not making money, and you are following exactly your trading plan, then you need to tweak your trading plans.

Im trying to do this now, hopefully it will work
  • #33,475
  • Oct 27, 2017 9:34pm Oct 27, 2017 9:34pm
Quoting lithium1
It helps a lot if you can write all the trading rules and plan down. And read it once everyday before your trading session. And then when you are done trading, look back on your trades when it's still fresh in your mind, and refer back your trading plan, see if you follow them well. After 50 trades, if you are not making money, and you are following exactly your trading plan, then you need to tweak your trading plans. Im trying to do this now, hopefully it will work
Good advice. Had I followed all of my rules/plan, I would be more profitable. I've accounted for 155 points lost/missed this month so far due to breaking rules.

I'm currently finding a method to make my phone remind me of my plan everyday before the market opens. Hopefully I can drill it into my head. I'm the only thing holding me back at this point. Funding is available, but not being risked until I fix me.
  • #33,476
  • Oct 27, 2017 10:05pm Oct 27, 2017 10:05pm
Quoting ckh626
{quote} Sorry Mr. P, I'm afraid the math doesn't really work that way. Anything less than 22 would yield less than 1 pip per day per your calculation (which isn't great). You'd have to go negative after commisions to get a negative daily average. Other than that, it is a fine way to count your daily average, especially if it is your sole income stream. I think somewhere in FF, there was the saying, you can get rich (or at least live comfortably) on 10 pips a day.
You must have miss understood my point. The point was how to calculate your average. Not a math lesson or a profitability lesson. You obviously can't expect to do this full time on a one point example daily positive average. But like in your example 5 point daily average will make you a ton of money. Being consistently profitable and being properly funded is the key to making as much money as you want.

5 point daily average * 1 contract = $500 ( 5*20=100 points in 20 days in a month on $5 a point) 6K per year on a 2K Account. That is a 300%

The spread sheet attached shows you that 5 points a day average can make you rich. Focus on developing a positive daily average and you will become rich if that is your goal.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx 5 point daily average.xlsx   14 KB | 809 downloads
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #33,477
  • Oct 28, 2017 4:47am Oct 28, 2017 4:47am
Quoting ckh626
{quote} glad you showed this peter. Inspires me to keep plugging away at what i'm doing too. had a BE month on my preferred contract, but I explored a couple other currencies. That was a bad idea. I should rejoin you guys on YM via sim. Saving up to be able to fund a position and some drawdown buffer.
Hey Chris it's nice to hear it inspires! (you do realize that it's a cumulative net profit graph and my total profit is zero right, )
I've always been open about my results. I'm not ashamed to admit my losses and my struggles.
Everybody on the thread should do it, so people would have realistic expectations about their results.
I want to show others that in some cases, like mine, it's a long an bumpy road to the top.
Assuming I ever get to the top of course. If not, I have proven that not everybody gets there

I'm not trading YM for now, it's too expensive for me to trade live, as I have to pay for every mistake I make, and I still make too many mistakes.
Trading forex only until my account is big enough to jump over.
Good luck and green pips to you!
  • #33,478
  • Oct 28, 2017 5:13am Oct 28, 2017 5:13am
Quoting johnnydus3d
{quote} I say this is a good way of calculating potential gain. I counted my Daily Average for this month using this method and I got 4.44 pips daily average (Most trades are EURJPY/USDJPY and some EURUSD). Last month I had better daily average but still I am really happy with this result. If I can continue this positive daily average result, I guess it just comes down to being funded and I'd be trading for a living from then on :-) Thank you Mr. Pip for this thread.
Nice result johnnydus3d!
May I ask how long have you been trading? Did you have profitable months before or did it start when using Mr. Pip's method?
Just trying to compare my evolution with others
  • #33,479
  • Oct 28, 2017 5:23am Oct 28, 2017 5:23am
Quoting PeterT
{quote} Hey Chris it's nice to hear it inspires! (you do realize that it's a cumulative net profit graph and my total profit is zero right, ) I've always been open about my results. I'm not ashamed to admit my losses and my struggles. Everybody on the thread should do it, so people would have realistic expectations about their results. I want to show others that in some cases, like mine, it's a long an bumpy road to the top. Assuming I ever get to the top of course. If not, I have proven that not everybody gets there...
I too have many mistakes with my results for this month and still I made 4.44 pips per day average. I'm even too far from the 70% win rate, however, I do not trade like Mr. Pip (adjusting stops and moving TP as trades run). What I do is, I check the chart and make sure my area of entry has high potential by analyzing projection and candlesticks etc then I put a pending order or wait for rotation candle, whichever I find is more appropriate depending on upcoming news. Then I set SL and TP which on average at 1:1.5 - 1:2.5RR as I set it at 1.618 of fib extension as target, after I am done setting the trade, I close metatrader and come back in a few hours to see if I hit SL or TP. I feel no stress at all doing this and it suits my psychology and you know what? My actual win rate is my expected win rate from last month which currently sits at 15 wins and 14 losses.
  • #33,480
  • Oct 28, 2017 5:23am Oct 28, 2017 5:23am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} You must have miss understood my point. The point was how to calculate your average. Not a math lesson or a profitability lesson. You obviously can't expect to do this full time on a one point example daily positive average. But like in your example 5 point daily average will make you a ton of money. Being consistently profitable and being properly funded is the key to making as much money as you want. 5 point daily average * 1 contract = $500 ( 5*20=100 points in 20 days in a month on $5 a point) 6K per year on a 2K Account. That is a 300%...
This spreadsheet should be printed out and pasted on everyone's Vision Board! Thanks once more Damian for reminding us again and again what can be done!
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