Quad Candle System

Ok, very interesting. Yes, I will find a bit of time to go into the links Masterrmind added in post 1
Thank you for your kind words
I wish you a lot of green pips

Closed out 2 trades both in profit.

GBPUSD
Natural Gas

1 by XNGUSD (Natural Gas) continues to run, collecting very nice positive swap.

Masterrmind............

Any trades taken today will be of an intraday nature meaning that an M15/M5 approach will be used.

Masterrmind.............

EURNZD [M15/M5 MML]

Now long.

Risk at current stopout <5%.

Masterrmind............

GBP-USD
I am now out of this pair

I opened the first position the 10 Oct after the quad putting the sl well below the low
After the price went to my side, I reduced the stop

After the pin bar of the 20 oct, thinking the up movement resumed. I added the 2nd position with sl below the pinbar

After the very bullish candle of the 25 oct I was very convinced that the up movement was started, so I added the 3rd position
At this point, to not increase the risk I moved at be the 1st and 2nd position and placed the stop of the last position below the min of the very bullish candle of th e25 oct. I frankly tought that after some days of uncertain direction, bulls took the control and I was very confident on a long movement

Yesterday, 1st and 2nd positions were stopped at be and today the 3rd position has been stopped with -149 pips

My comments
Not happy with the final result
Reviewing the trades, I applaude my tentative to run the trend with multiple positions
Good to have reduced the risk, even if it means more possibilities to be stopped out
Any trade can be winner or loser and I don't know exactly how much our decisions to enter a trade can determine the result. But, I am 100% convinced that the way we handle the trade is the factor that makes the difference between a looser trader and a winner one

Last 10 days were pretty difficult to me ( -350 pips ) but I cannot forget that the previous 20 days I got more than +2500 pips using the same strategy.
So, I am going to seek the next possible trend to be run with multiple positions

Good trading to everyone

My two open trades

NZD-CAD long
EUR-NZD short

Let's see

Its always a very difficult concept namely keeping stops wide or reducing them to BE sooner rather than later.

The very real danger is a change in the direction of the symbol we have entered due to unforseen circumstances or data etc.

You never really know how well you managed the position until its over.

The reality is that whilst you may have managed this entry very well the next setup might look like you managed it very badly.

What I have found is for D1 setups, its always better to keep your SLs as wide as your risk% dictates and very slowly add in additional trades.

The downside of adding in additional trades very slowly say for example after every 200 pips is the fact that we really cannot know how far our symbol will move over a given longer term period (it might range, accelerate in our direction or reverse against us).

A larger account with smaller positioning gives the trader far more flexibility to add in positions whilst maintaining a lower risk than the assigned.

Experience can help here however remaining under the assigned risk% is critical to longer term survival in this market because if a trader loosens up their risk approach it is far too easy to give profit back to the market.

Just remember that many traders make plenty of winning trades in a row to only give back most if not all of those gains by 1 silly trade they refused to close out and eventually this trade destroys their account.

A trader who wants to be successful has to be as hard as hell on their risk management... these are the traders who stand to make the long haul.

Thank you for sharing your trades Eldero, very good explanations.

Note 1: You have taken 2500 pips or so and the market will at times take some back... we need to minimize how many pips we give back!
Note 2: Note 1 is not easy.

Masterrmind...........

Always a pleasure to read your thoughts
I 100% quote when you say that it is impossible to establish if one has managed the trade in the right manner, because the next time, the same way could not work. For this reason, I think it is important to decide which is own preferable way ( that may also be different for each pair or market conditions ). Doing that one can expect some loosing and some winning trades, but it is part of the tarding. Maybe someone prefer to have a 1/1 risk/reward some other 1/5. Probably it does not make the difference. The main point is to be well aware of what everyone is doing and accept loss and also not to have the fear to loose the profit a not yet closed position.
My decision to be very aggressive on adding positions as early as possible, is because I try to individuate a possible trend of approx 400/600 pips and I would like to have 1000/1500 pips with 3/5 positions. I realized that often, when a trend of 400/600 pips ( or even more ) starts, it is very probable that the sequence of daily candles have higher high and higher low ( in a long trend ). Due to this condition, when the first trade is in profit, I am prepared to add a position at the next open candle, reducing the stop loss of the previous one ( or all the previous if more than one ). Yes, of course, I am increasing the possibility to be stopped, but I accept this risk with the benefit of having multiple positions. I try to analyze each case and try to be wise on adding, but in general I am very aggressive. Not sure if it is the right approach. It just meet my personality

I'm short too on eur/nzd :-) Risky trade i think: We are far from daily trendline and on good levels on the MM, but the weekly and the monthly are Up...(but both are touching strong resistance)

A little curiosity: Where did you placed your sl and tp?

Ummm ... I see it again these NZD pairs are quite "dangerous" ... they require higher SLs to set ... set them, if you have the mones for higher risks ...

Will propose here my individual approach for this nice strategy soon ....

Hi Joseph, I put the stop at 1,72679. I have not fixed the tp yet. If price will go closer to the trend line I drawn, I will see how the price will react.
I put the stop pretty far away. I always do it for the first position. If price will move in my favour, I will add positions lowering the total stop
Swap is positve for short positions.

I agree with you. It's a risky trade. A confirm of the change of the trend, in my opinion is at the break of 1,6335 ( pretty far from now ). But, these are the trade I am looking for. If I am wrong I will loose 257 pips with 1 position. If I am right and will be able to add position remaining in the trade ( very difficult ), I could run a trend of 800/1000 pips with multiple positions. Of course this kind of trading often will lead to many singular losses, or be, but somethimes the result is amazing.

In any case, knowing that I am aiming to a huge profit, my first goal is to minimize the possible loss

yes, or as Masterrmind teaches, reduce the size to control the risk. I hope to see your approach soon. This is the best way to improve each other

My friend in my humble opinion the Nzd Cad with a 61pip Octave seem a little small ? have a look at a 122 or even 244 ? to me a Daily needs at a minimum a 122. if you are using around a 250pip stop you might as well use a 244 Octave ? ( Sometimes changes the picture all together)

Thank you OAPDave. I don't know why it showed 61pip...I checked and it now shows 122 pip, but the picture is the same...
Anyway, I have just added the second position
To keep the risk limited, now the positions are
1st position: Stop placed at -53 pips
2nd position: Stop placed at 127 pips
Total stop loss: 180 pips

Yes, it is risky to add a position with just 40/45 pips gain and on Friday. But my total risk is the same and price is going in the hoped direction, so this is what I wanted and when it happens, I have to take action
Have a great weekend!

EUR-NZD
Second position added

Now
1st position at be
2nd position with stop at -205 pips

Well, I could have closed the trade taking 140 pips with a position opened just some hours ago, also because it's Friday. Maybe it was not a bad idea

But, it's not what I am aiming.
Total risk has been reduced and now I have the possibility to be in the trade with 2 positions

Let's see...

CHALLENGE

I've recently received a challenge from another 'trader' who has asked me if I can turnover minimum 4K every month (1K/wk) from a 25K start.

I thought why not give it a go and who knows this 'challenge' might be a way to generate some much needed interest in this thread.

Lets take a closer look at the numbers required to generate 1K per week or 4K per month to see if its a 'reasonable' target to achieve.

The Math

Start Balance = US$25000 (variable)

Profit per Month = US$4000 (constant)

This suggests initially that a 16% gain per month is required to meet the challenge.

Note: As account balance increases month/month the %gain required will reduce since profit per month remains constant over all time.

For example,
If account balance = $25000 then $4000 represents 16%.
If account balance = $30000 then $4000 represents 13.3% (< 16%).
If account balance = $40000 then $4000 represents 10% (<16%).
And so on ......

Breaking it all down into smaller pieces:

Lets assume there are 20 trading days per month.

Lets assume EURUSD is being traded.

Lets assume that the M15/M5 MML System will be traded since we are primarily concerned with intraday profit gain.
The D1 Quad Candle System may also be traded since a profit per month is also being sought.

Required $/day = $4000/20 = $200 per day profit;

$200 = 200 pips @ 0.1 lot on EU ... (EU pip value is $1)
$200 = 80 pips @ 0.25 lot on EU ... (EU pip value is $2.50)
$200 = 40 pips @ 0.5 lot on EU ... (EU pip value is $5)
$200 = 20 pips @ 1 lot on EU ... (EU pip value is $10)
$200 = 10 pips @ 2 lot on EU ... (EU pip value is $20)
$200 = 6.7 pips @ 3 lot on EU ... (EU pip value is $30)
$200 = 5 pips @ 4 lot on EU ... (EU pip value is $40)
$200 = 4 pips @ 5 lot on EU ... (EU pip value is $50)
$200 = 2 pips @ 10 lot on EU ... (EU pip value is $100)

What lot size is reasonable to trade on a 25K account looking for $200 per day in profit (net)?

Target pips ?
Symbol choice ?
Session choice ?
Trade every day or only some ?
Trade only the M15/M5 MML System or only the D1 Quad Candle System or a combination of both ?

Reward to risk >= 1 to 1;
[2,3,4 to 1 subject to trade setup characteristics (PA, chart structure, Fibs, Harmonics, ADR, average movement per session, Range, etc)].

A balance between desired TP pips and SL pips for a given setup on a given pair is needed here.
We know that our reward to risk ratio has to be greater than 1 to 1;
We know that the fewer the pips required to reach TP the easier it is however, since we trade a positive R:r ratio the it also means that a smaller stop is also easier to hit.

This is where chart structure must be considered, S+R levels, MMLs and other trading factors.

Questions ?

1. If I was trading only EURUSD in the London session with a 25K account who can suggest to me what lot size I should trade and what my typical SL in pips would be on average assuming M15/M5 MML System is applied ?

2. Should an assigned risk% be used in terms of DD limit ? 1%, 2%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 20%, or higher ?

3. Should only the 1 trade be taken per day or should the risk be divided over a number of trades ?

4. How reasonable is it to succedd in this challenge assuming that at least 3 months of successful trading occurs (4K+4K+4K) ?

5. How would you rate this challenge ? Low risk, medium risk or high risk ?

6. How likely would you rate my chances of succeeding ?

Masterrmind............

Wow, this is a very good challenge. 4k each month with 25k account would be an amazing result. 12k after 3 months would also be a great result, but 4k each month in even more difficult, because because to be constant every month is not easy.
I would think in pips. In the sense that I would adk myself, how many pips I am confident to gain per week or per month?
For ex. If I think I can get 60/70 pips per week ( not easy, because if you have a week with -60/70, the next one you have to gain 120/140 ) I would have as monthly result approx 250 pips. In this case, considering Eur-Usd for the first month I can operate with 1.6 lot
Regarding the method of trading since the necessity to get constant monthly result, maybe it is suggested a pretty short target strategy, that could give a result of 15/20 pips per day. It could seem easy to gain 15 pips per day, but it is indeed very difficult.
A very selective trading is required. So I would establish the rule to stop trading after two negative result per day. In case of a positive result, I would stop after 3 positive results. In this way, we will have very selective with our trades. Due to the close target, a pair with the smallest spread is required
This challenge can be a way to improve our selection of trades. However I think that the results should be evaluated not every month but at least every 3 months. I frankly think that not even the best trader in the world can get a positive result every month on the long run
Ok, I am very curious to see what wiill be your approach
I will follow with great interested

My view is that its a challenge that may not be easily achieved especially over the longer term and may be better suited to competent traders.

However, since this challenge is for a maximum period of 3 months then its feasible that several traders may make the grade.

Initially I view the challenge as medium to high risk based on a quick review of some industry benchmark figures (Hedge Fund m/m returns).

I have therefore decided to apply a reduced challenge capital of an even US$20,000 but still attempt a constant monthly profit gain of $4000.

%gain/month required:

$4000/$20000*100 = 20% per month for the 1st month then reducing over time if no withdrawals (account compounding) are made.

My Challenge Start Capital = US$20,000

US$20000 start capital with or without withdrawals

November 2017 $20000 start + $4000 profit = $24000 (=20% gain for Month 1 and DD < 20.0%)
December 2017 $24000 start + $4000 profit = $28000 (=16.7% gain for Month 2 and DD < 16.7%)
January 2018 $28000 start + $4000 profit = $32000 (=14.3% gain for Month 3 and DD < 14.3 %).

Start Capital = US$20000
Finish Capital >= US$32000

To be successful this account must make a profit of US$4000 every month from November 2017 through to January 2018.
Or the account only needs to generate >= US$12000 in profit and satisfy any DD% limits.
If monthly profit is withdrawn then DD must be < 20% for each month traded.
If compounding the account (no withdrawals) then DD in Month 1 < 20%, Month 2 < 16.7% and Month 3 < 14.3 %.

Note 1: If profit is withdrawn after the end of a given month then each new month start capital shall be US$20000 and DD must be less than 20%.

Note 2: If in any month either the profit of >= US$4000 is not reached or the DD% is exceeded then the attempt is deemed to be a failed attempt.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Other competitors as above unless capital is <20K:

No-withdrawals

November 2017 >=20.0% gain for Month 1 (DD <20.0%)
December 2017 >=16.7% gain for Month 2 (DD <16.7%)
January 2018 >=14.3% gain for Month 3 (DD <14.3%)

Any Withdrawals from the trading account

November 2017 >=20.0% gain for Month 1 (DD <20.0%)
December 2017 >=20.0% gain for Month 2 (DD <20.0%)
January 2018 >=20.0% gain for Month 3 (DD <20.0%)


Challenge Conditions:

1. Use any regulated Retail FX broker;
2. Use any strategy provided it loosely resembles the 2 Methods taught in this thread namely the D1 Quad Candle System or M15/M5 MML System;
3. Use leverage from 1:1 up to but not exceeding 500:1;
4. Use a live traded account opened in November 2017 with a minimum capital of US$1000 (or equivalent currency);
5. Live accounts may be opened up until the last trading day in November 2017 but must also satisfy current monthly progress requirements;
6. Live account must be linked to myfxbook and have track record and trading privileges verified and all trading analytics set to public;
7. Drawdown (DD%) will be decided using myfxbook Stat Tab 'Drawdown' and must show a DD<20% at all times;
8. If no withdrawals are made (compounding account) then DD must be <20% for November, <16.7% for December and <14.3% for January;
9. Maximum of 3 attempts are possible provided start date is not later than last trading day in November 2017;
10. Traders deemed to be successful by the Thread Operator will be entered into a "Quad-MML Traders Hall of Fame" within Post 1;
11. Successful Traders will have thier avatars listed and some basic trading analytics such as start and finish capital, m/m %gain and DD%;
12. Thread Operator reserves the right to amend or modify any challenge conditions at any time with all decisions on all matters being final.
13. Achieve a minimum 37.5% gain on capital at anytime within the 3 month challenge period but must meet minimum monthly gain criteria and satisfy rules 1 through 12 including all DD limits that apply.
14. Demo accounts can be traded but cannot be included in any Hall of Fame listings in Post 1.

For example,

If Trader A gains <20% by last trading day in November then they are disqualified;

If Trader B gains >=20% by last trading day in November they progress and are only disqualified if they fail to meet next months gain;

If Trader C gains 37.5% at any time from November 1 through to last trading day in January 2018 and satisfy DD% they are deemed successful subject to final approval by the Thread Op;

Note 1: Once a trader gains 37.5% they may simply stop trading that account and cruise to a successful challenge at challenge end date.

Note 2: The Thread Op reserves the right to amend any rule/guideline at any time if deemed necessary, for example, if several traders have attained a greater than 37.5% gain on capital by December 2017 then the challenge may well be ended due to end of year festivities.

Note 3: Continuing traders who qualify m/m may continue to trade through to the last trading day in January 2018 and if successful will also be entered into the Quad-MML Traders Hall of Fame in Post 1 of this thread.

Challenge Timeframe = November 1 through to January 31 (ie 1st trading day in November 2017 to the last trading day in January 2018).

Whats in it for successful traders ?

I will allocate a section known as "Quad-MML Traders Hall of Fame" dedicated to listing all the traders who successfully complete any challenge.

*Understand that any capital a trader applies is at their own consequence and that trading financial derivatives carries a high degree of risk!*

I would be very surprised if I get even 1 live trading account to follow me on this challenge ... so please surprise me if you dare !

ps. A fresh new account with US$20000 will commence from November 1 ... who else will join me?

Masterrmind...........

1. 1 or 2 / between 10 & 30 depending on setup;
2. Max 2% per trade / 20% total a/c;
3. Take all valid entries during clearly defined trading period;
4. For most, totally unreasonable; for you....hmmmmm, just maybe ...
5. High risk;
6. 50/50.

Respect : I wish you success

(I'm overseas this weekend & I no longer have a live MT4 account, but I will follow with a SIM a/c "from the cheap seats")

Thanks for your comments.

I will outline a basic trading plan later especially the likely choice of symbols, sessions to be traded, likely trades per day, likely risk per trade and total risk%, likely number of trades open at the same time among other key points.

Pleased to hear that you will follow along.

The good, the bad and the ugly will be visible on my account.

I view this challenge as rather risky but not impossible.

It should be interesting to see how it unfolds over time with the first month being the initial milestone.

Masterrmind.......