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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #22,441
  • Oct 26, 2017 12:12pm Oct 26, 2017 12:12pm
[quote=billytt;10428870]
Quoting firewight
Hey guys. just though I'd post my 2nd trade (demo) on the 04.00 H4 AU method. Ive been reading a lot through here the last few days and have to say thank you, not only is the information Hello and welcome, hope it is ok me saying that. Last i got a severe reprimand lol. Ask questions and we shall answer.We do have a few methods running but mine is best lol ha ha ha (((JOKING)))
Lol - you're good, Billy - firewight is one of the good guys
  • #22,442
  • Oct 26, 2017 3:53pm Oct 26, 2017 3:53pm
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Working fine today. Probably just me. {file}
Thanks my friend
  • #22,443
  • Oct 27, 2017 1:17am Oct 27, 2017 1:17am
'Morning all.

I slept a bit too well last night and was rushing to get to the screens on time. As it turned out, I wasn't quite quick enough and missed the boat.

Well, I say missed it but I don't know if subconsciously I eased off at the end as I had had a look at the set-up. Top of a sustained climb, with the Schaff telling me short was the way to go but a drop had already happened.

Then there was the added complication of EUR news, with German Import Prices due up right on the hour. I'm assuming the earlier move was manoeuvring around that. It wasn't red news but still...

I stayed out.

As it turns out, if I had traded what I saw - and in this case, backed by the Schaff - I would have been head-faked on a break South. I'd have then countered on the long-trigger, on a WZ back into the body. That would have done the trick, though as it's the pre-UK Open, it would have been expensive.

Anyway, here's how it looked...

DAX 06:00 - 07:00
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: InkedDAX-Monster27thOct17as06.00-07.00_LI.jpg Size: 607 KB


Overview on that set-up...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX-Monster27thOct17as06.00-07.00WIDE.png Size: 28 KB
  • #22,444
  • Oct 27, 2017 1:31am Oct 27, 2017 1:31am
Dxy showing a range with strong buying. Cable could go either way depending on if how $ deals with this resistance. See what happens..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDproM15.png Size: 26 KB
  • #22,445
  • Oct 27, 2017 2:10am Oct 27, 2017 2:10am
Quoting wannalearn12
Dxy showing a range with strong buying. Cable could go either way depending on if how $ deals with this resistance. See what happens.. {image}
sold into .00 and out.. got a dumb fill. I hit close at .010 - filled .033. scaled in for $2/p. here is the bounce as well. waiting for london open hour to close green and I will hit a long... all depends really.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,446
  • Oct 27, 2017 2:23am Oct 27, 2017 2:23am
Second bite.

This was more like it. Still looking at a short bias and we had a good set-up for a retrace - which we got. WZ short into the body. It moved fast and I got in a little late but still +5% in the bag.

DAX 06:00 - 08:00 (WZ Short back into the body of the candle). +5%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: InkedDAX-Monster27thOct17as06.00-08.00_LI.jpg Size: 866 KB


Price then bounced and headed back up - right into a double-top. Could be some scalping coming up ...

Wide - as is now...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX-Monster27thOct17as06.00-08.00WIDE.png Size: 29 KB


One thing I need to do though, is get my finger out and redo my full chart set up, as I am missing the input from the S+D Zones. I know I can draw them myself - but hey, that's what coders are for, right. Keeps them out of mischief
  • #22,447
  • Oct 27, 2017 2:43am Oct 27, 2017 2:43am
Quoting wannalearn12
Dxy showing a range with strong buying. Cable could go either way depending on if how $ deals with this resistance. See what happens.. {image}
Follow up - doesn't get much easier than this... shorted again at the break of .00
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDproM15.png Size: 22 KB
  • #22,448
  • Oct 27, 2017 2:50am Oct 27, 2017 2:50am
Quoting wannalearn12
{quote} Follow up - doesn't get much easier than this... shorted again at the break of .00 {image}
Here is second trade. I went heavy as saw the up move was halted with heavy selling. scaled in with 7.5$/p didn't get the price I wanted but oh well. Also note- bounced from the 850 area before so I was aiming around there. got the area it ran from before in a yellow thing
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDproM15.png Size: 7 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDproH1.png Size: 21 KB
  • #22,449
  • Oct 27, 2017 2:53am Oct 27, 2017 2:53am
Quoting wannalearn12
{quote} Here is second trade. I went heavy as saw the up move was halted with heavy selling. scaled in with 7.5$/p didn't get the price I wanted but oh well. Also note- bounced from the 850 area before so I was aiming around there. got the area it ran from before in a yellow thing {image} {image}
Thoughts on today- was rather sloppy - but I got the job done. Note my spread is bullocks for GU as I am in the USA with a small account.
  • #22,450
  • Oct 27, 2017 2:59am Oct 27, 2017 2:59am
Watching the AU H4 break, but dont have a a lot of confidence in what I'm seeing, so I will watch only today, even though I am still demoing it... The range after that large candle is quite small between 10-15 pips...

Also we are below yesterdays low, so I am unsure if longs are smart... I'm sure STATS would give me more confidence lol!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Life is like a snickers, its full of nuts!
  • #22,451
  • Oct 27, 2017 3:02am Oct 27, 2017 3:02am
Quoting firewight
Watching the AU H4 break, but dont have a a lot of confidence in what I'm seeing, so I will watch only today, even though I am still demoing it... The range after that large candle is quite small between 10-15 pips... Also we are below yesterdays low, so I am unsure if longs are smart... I'm sure STATS would give me more confidence lol! {image}
tighten that range a bit... that looks like a coiled spring... catch at US news possibly
  • #22,452
  • Oct 27, 2017 3:06am Oct 27, 2017 3:06am
Quoting wannalearn12
{quote} tighten that range a bit... that looks like a coiled spring... catch at US news possibly
I am so impatient
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,453
  • Oct 27, 2017 3:07am Oct 27, 2017 3:07am
Quoting wannalearn12
{quote} tighten that range a bit... that looks like a coiled spring... catch at US news possibly
Its just the range of the last 4 hourly bars...
Life is like a snickers, its full of nuts!
  • #22,454
  • Oct 27, 2017 3:19am Oct 27, 2017 3:19am
Quoting firewight
{quote} Its just the range of the last 4 hourly bars...
I was saying "could it GET any TIGHTER??!!" sarcasm is hard to pick up on the interwebs! -I like the look of that chart .
  • #22,455
  • Oct 27, 2017 3:35am Oct 27, 2017 3:35am
Quoting wannalearn12
{quote} I was saying "could it GET any TIGHTER??!!" sarcasm is hard to pick up on the interwebs! -I like the look of that chart .
Yeah very tight indeed! If I had a long trigger it would be in now and retracing...
Life is like a snickers, its full of nuts!
  • #22,456
  • Oct 27, 2017 3:47am Oct 27, 2017 3:47am
Took a risky small position on some price action at the dr1 - caught some small drawdown - at around 6 or 7 p's. Scaled in around -6 pips that area with 3.6$/p total. Obviously closed early, as I liked the pips for what I was seeing.
$154.84 profits past two days. 100% trade results. used small positions to have ability to correct trade. When I did go heavy (one time) I scaled in the (heavy) position with risk at a set point of 1.5%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,457
  • Oct 27, 2017 4:50am Oct 27, 2017 4:50am
Last trade until USA session. Based off price action. Took a long - feels so good to be back with FX.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,458
  • Oct 27, 2017 5:38am Oct 27, 2017 5:38am
Quoting wannalearn12
{quote} Follow up - doesn't get much easier than this... shorted again at the break of .00 {image}
Remember there's red news for The Greenback in the arvo as well.
  • #22,459
  • Edited 5:50am Oct 27, 2017 5:39am | Edited 5:50am
Heya guys, just wanted to share my STATS collecting progress for the H4 AU 04.00 method, and see if anyone has any suggestion before I continue, as its a time consuming process as you already know, and I dont want to have to re-do it all again because I didnt think of something!

I have collected the following information:

Date: Date
M, T, W, TH, F: The day of the week (unsure of the statistical value).
H4 Range: The range of the 4 hourly candles prior to the London Open.
Pre Range: The Current Daily Range up to the London Open (unsure of the statistical value).
Box %: The percentage of the Box size in relation to the Pre Range size (unsure of the statistical value).
Daily Range: The Daily Range.
T1 5 Pips: Did Trigger 1 reach 5 pips?
T1 10 Pips: Did Trigger 1 reach 10 pips?
T1 20 Pips: Did Trigger 1 reach 20 pips?
Retrace 25: Did price retrace 25% of the box size before reaching the TP?
Retrace 50: Did price retrace 50% of the box size before reaching the TP?
Retrace 75: Did price retrace 75% of the box size before reaching the TP?
Counter 1: Was Counter 1 required because Trigger 1 failed?
C1 5 Pips: Did Counter 1 reach 5 pips?
C1 10 Pips: Did Counter 1 reach 10 pips?
C1 20 Pips: Did Counter 1 reach 20 pips?
Limbo?: Was a trade countered and left in Limbo?
Limbo Fixed: Were the trades stuck in Limbo from the previous day able to be unwound by the following days signal?
No trade: Was this a no trade day based on extenuating circumstances?
Notes: Personal notes and observations about the daily market movements.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU 04.00 Jan 2017.JPG Size: 219 KB

I am open to any and all suggestions and comments etc...

Cheers!


EDIT: I forgot the following infos!

Additional Information:
Number of trading days in the month
Number of M,T,W,TH,F days in the month
Average H4 Range for the month
Average Pre-Range for the month
Average Box % size for the month
Average Daily Range for the month
Number of T1 5 pips wins for the month
Number of T1 10 pips wins for the month
Number of T1 20 pips wins for the month
Number of 25% Retraces for the month
Number of 50% Retraces for the month
Number of 75% Retraces for the month
Number of Counter 1 trades for the month
Number of C1 5 pips wins for the month (if taken)
Number of C1 10 pips wins for the month (if taken)
Number of C1 20 pips wins for the month (if taken)
Number of Limbos for the month
Number of Fixed Limbos for the month
Life is like a snickers, its full of nuts!
  • #22,460
  • Oct 27, 2017 5:40am Oct 27, 2017 5:40am
Quoting wannalearn12
{quote} Here is second trade. I went heavy as saw the up move was halted with heavy selling. scaled in with 7.5$/p didn't get the price I wanted but oh well. Also note- bounced from the 850 area before so I was aiming around there. got the area it ran from before in a yellow thing {image} {image}
A yellow something?!
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