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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #5,221
  • Oct 24, 2017 12:10pm Oct 24, 2017 12:10pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} Yes it is: possible space down to 3074* zone if new gap not retraced quickly *3074 being the last of the visible weaknesses left downside and the bottom of an old double pass pit gap. Possible target sequence (if new gap not filled): 3146 (already taken out) 3138 31263 31163 31025 and then 3074 Instead if gap filled and acceptation obtained above yes pit low 31755 then all the way back to the weak triple Tokyo top at 32273.
So, gap not filled and 5 weaknesses have been taken out so far.

Now, consider that pit session is attempting a breakout downside from balance as 31263 is the low of the first pit week in which the last one is included: so acceptation below this level is fundamental in order to evaluate the success or failure of this attempt. In case of failure we could retrace the entire pit balance up to 3227. Instead in case of success we could continue lower to 3074.
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  • #5,222
  • Oct 24, 2017 12:22pm Oct 24, 2017 12:22pm
Quoting Tulkas
Lock, I am quite successful trading the GBP/AUD. The benefit of your excellent analysis is compromised by my using a cross pair instead of pure GBP/USD. Is it possible to subject the GBP/AUD to such analysis? I would imagine that the link to the DXY is a big driver in the GBP/USD, but counters many of the GBP/AUD moves... As I have said before, I am more than willing to learn this analysis/approach, but I would want it to supplement my current use of the GBP/AUD. Realistic expectation? Thanks,
It is absolutely possible. Any instrument uses the same market rules obviously with particular nuances in any different case. Anyway the first step is to learn and master the market then you can adapt your learnings to any environment and any condition you'll find. For example I learned what I know over bonds, crude and S&P 500. Then I applied my knowledge to cable. Actually I must say that the passage from an index to a forex pair has not been so easy. But now I know it was doable.
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  • #5,223
  • Oct 24, 2017 12:48pm Oct 24, 2017 12:48pm
Note that we got already 2 period highs exactly at current half back (3136). Those who are selling there are weak. So be aware of this info.
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  • #5,224
  • Oct 24, 2017 12:49pm Oct 24, 2017 12:49pm
Note also that 3137-8 is a major composite poc. So it could attract price.
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  • #5,225
  • Oct 24, 2017 12:52pm Oct 24, 2017 12:52pm
Quoting Lock
Note that we got already 2 period highs exactly at current half back (3136). Those who are selling there are weak. So be aware of this info.
Again this does not mean it has to go there and take them out nor that current action downside could not continue lower, it means that you have to carry forward the info regarding who is currently controlling this market. Knowing that if someone stronger will decide to buy those guys will be wiped out easily.
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  • #5,226
  • Oct 24, 2017 12:55pm Oct 24, 2017 12:55pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} So, gap not filled and 5 weaknesses have been taken out so far. Now, consider that pit session is attempting a breakout downside from balance as 31263 is the low of the first pit week in which the last one is included: so acceptation below this level is fundamental in order to evaluate the success or failure of this attempt. In case of failure we could retrace the entire pit balance up to 3227. Instead in case of success we could continue lower to 3074.
Note the struggle at 31263: monitor carefully for acceptation or rejection below it.
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  • #5,227
  • Oct 24, 2017 1:56pm Oct 24, 2017 1:56pm
Quoting Lock
Note that we got already 2 period highs exactly at current half back (3136). Those who are selling there are weak. So be aware of this info.
Quoting Lock
Note also that 3137-8 is a major composite poc. So it could attract price.
Quoting Lock
{quote} Again this does not mean it has to go there and take them out nor that current action downside could not continue lower, it means that you have to carry forward the info regarding who is currently controlling this market. Knowing that if someone stronger will decide to buy those guys will be wiped out easily.
As you see...

Now we are late in the session so it could only be a short covering. Furthermore pit session poc ic very prominent and cannot move anymore today. So be aware of the fact that this action could retrace again.
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  • #5,228
  • Oct 24, 2017 2:02pm Oct 24, 2017 2:02pm
Earlier closed another short, 1 more remains. I will wait and see what happens tomorrow. Suddenly there was a bearish nuance, which I believe made that low for today.
Range on 1D and 4H is tightening. My first TP for the last short position that remained open is 1.3055.
Cable touched 1D trendline bottom.
  • #5,229
  • Oct 24, 2017 2:04pm Oct 24, 2017 2:04pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} {quote} {quote} As you see... Now we are late in the session so it could only be a short covering. Furthermore pit session poc ic very prominent and cannot move anymore today. So be aware of the fact that this action could retrace again.
When you say retrace again, do u mean to 1.31900 poc?
  • #5,230
  • Oct 24, 2017 2:06pm Oct 24, 2017 2:06pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} {quote} {quote} As you see... Now we are late in the session so it could only be a short covering. Furthermore pit session poc ic very prominent and cannot move anymore today. So be aware of the fact that this action could retrace again.
And here you are...
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  • #5,231
  • Oct 24, 2017 2:09pm Oct 24, 2017 2:09pm
Quoting Pixie666
{quote} When you say retrace again, do u mean to 1.31900 poc?
It was going upwards so I intended downwards... But then as you see we got a huge volatility right now, so I suggest to be prudent. Remember that our most important info is how pit participants are reacting to the attempted breakdown from balance below 31263. Read previous posts.
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  • #5,232
  • Oct 24, 2017 2:17pm Oct 24, 2017 2:17pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} It was going upwards so I intended downwards... But then as you see we got a huge volatility right now, so I suggest to be prudent. Remember that our most important info is how pit participants are reacting to the attempted breakdown from balance below 31263. Read previous posts.
interestingly (pit) sessions.
Is there a way or info i could learn more about them. Would apreciate it
thanks
  • #5,233
  • Oct 24, 2017 2:27pm Oct 24, 2017 2:27pm
Quoting Pixie666
{quote} interestingly (pit) sessions. Is there a way or info i could learn more about them. Would apreciate it thanks
Pit session is only a time during the day in which US participants are highly prevalent over other market operators. (15:30-23:00+1GMT, for forex obviously). In this thread I wrote extensively about different market participants, sessions, etc. So if you like you could read those posts.

I'm off as it is dinner session here in Italy (nay, it's even to late for dinner!). Best, L.
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  • #5,234
  • Oct 24, 2017 2:31pm Oct 24, 2017 2:31pm
Tjank you, will go through it all,

Quoting Lock
{quote} So, gap not filled and 5 weaknesses have been taken out so far. Now, consider that pit session is attempting a breakout downside from balance as 31263 is the low of the first pit week in which the last one is included: so acceptation below this level is fundamental in order to evaluate the success or failure of this attempt. In case of failure we could retrace the entire pit balance up to 3227. Instead in case of success we could continue lower to 3074.
  • #5,235
  • Oct 25, 2017 1:18am Oct 25, 2017 1:18am
Quoting Pixie666
Tjank you, will go through it all, {quote}
It is possible. But, if I may suggest to you: you should always have at least three different scenarios in your mind in order to be able to quickly react if something will go wrong in the direction you imagined to have more odds to happen. One of the most dangerous condition in which a trader could act is when he has only one single idea.
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  • #5,236
  • Oct 25, 2017 2:10am Oct 25, 2017 2:10am
GB opened with a substantial gap downside from yesterday GB low 31573: if this gap will not be quickly retraced odd are in favor for a continuation downside.

Remember that 31163 is the low of the second GB inside week: so it is the most important level here in order to evaluate a success or failure in a possible attempted breakdown from weekly balance. Acceptation below it could in fact lead the market to a substantial at least short term action downside while at the opposite, rejection below it could lead price in the direction of the opposite side of the GB balance.

These are the extremes of the last 3 GB weeks. 2 and 3 are both inside weeks. (bigger numbers are the lows while smaller ones are the highs)

  1. First containing GB week range: 30512-33652
  2. First GB inside week range: 31025 (poor low)-33237
  3. Second GB inside week range: 31163-33115 (poor low taken out while 33115 still poor high)

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  • #5,237
  • Oct 25, 2017 2:38am Oct 25, 2017 2:38am
question for lock,

I am trying to get funded with a remote prop group I can trade currency futures I am looking at the british pound futures do you have any knowledge of that just curious
  • #5,238
  • Oct 25, 2017 3:14am Oct 25, 2017 3:14am
Quoting pquirst
question for lock, I am trying to get funded with a remote prop group I can trade currency futures I am looking at the british pound futures do you have any knowledge of that just curious
Be more detailed please. Best, L
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  • #5,239
  • Oct 25, 2017 3:19am Oct 25, 2017 3:19am
oh sorry wondering if you ever traded the pound futures or just the spot forex gbp usd thanks
  • #5,240
  • Oct 25, 2017 3:33am Oct 25, 2017 3:33am
Quoting Lock
GB opened with a substantial gap downside from yesterday GB low 31573: if this gap will not be quickly retraced odd are in favor for a continuation downside. Remember that 31163 is the low of the second GB inside week: so it is the most important level here in order to evaluate a success or failure in a possible attempted breakdown from weekly balance. Acceptation below it could in fact lead the market to a substantial at least short term action downside while at the opposite, rejection[/highlight]...

No acceptation below second inside GB week low 31163 and here we have the retracement in the direction of the opposite side of the balance.
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