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Monday, October 2nd

The EUR/USD pair failed to extend its Friday’s recovery path and fell to its 2-day lows, located in the area of 1.1740 level, on the back of recent political headlines from Spain. The main currency pair came under strong selling pressure at the start of this trading week in wake of referendum vote for Catalonia’s independence from Spain, which was held on Sunday. As a result, 90% of Catalans voted "Yes" to leave Spain, but only 42.3% of voters took part in the referendum and the Spanish constitutional court declared referendum results illegal. This political uncertainty around the Euro area triggered fresh sell-off of the common currency across the market on Monday. Moreover, increased demand for the greenback, underpinned by market’s expectation of another Fed rate hike this year, also exerts negative influence on the main currency pair today. On the data front, today the European data calendar will offer only secondary data reports, which will unlikely provide the pair with notable impact, while the US ISM manufacturing data will be able to bring fresh trading opportunities for the pair during the NA trading session.

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Tuesday, October 3rd

The EUR/USD pair followed widespread market sentiments in Asia and spiked its support level of 1.1700, having refreshed its 2-month lows at 1.1696 spot. The main market-moving factor remains increased demand of the US dollar, as risen expectations of another Fed rate hike by the end of this year and solid economic results of the US economy are supporting the greenback across the market. Adding to this, the common currency continues to remain influenced by Sunday’s Catalonia independence referendum, which led to a surge of violence on the streets of Spain, thereby exerting notable pressure on the euro. However, the pair managed to bounce off its recent lows and to recover part of its overnight loses amid profit taking actions around the US Dollar. Today we have absolutely empty data calendar, so the pair will continue to trace US dollar price actions and broad market trend to determine its further direction.

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Wednesday, October 4th

The EUR/USD pair retains its recovery trend for the second day in a row on the back of renewed weakness of the US dollar, backed by recent Fed leadership talks. In Asia the pair came under bullish control, having refreshed its 2-day highs at 1.1800 spot, in wake of speculations on who will take Fed Chair positions, once Yellen’s term expires next year. The market is digesting idea that the next Fed Chairperson could become FOMC member J.Powell, as he looks more ideologically aligned with Trump administration, while remaining more dovish candidate then Mrs. Yellen. However, the pair stalled its upside trend, as political jitters surrounding the Catalan referendum vote are still weighing on the common currency. Today we have plenty of macroeconomic events, such as the ADP Jobs report, US ISM services PMI and speeches of both heads of the regulators, which will be able to provoke fresh wave of speculations regarding divergence between the Fed and ECB during the NA session.

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Thursday, October 5th

The EUR/USD pair was consolidating its positions in the region of 1.1750-70 during the Asian trading session, as investors refrain from placing any important directional bets ahead of the ECB minutes. Now all market’s attention remains focused on the release of the protocols from the last ECB meeting, which is scheduled on the European afternoon, as investors await for fresh clues on probable changes in the QE program. However, seems that the dust around the Catalonian independency referendum has settled down, allowing the main currency pair to correct higher from its nearly 2-month lows, posted on Tuesday in the region of 1.1700 level. Adding to this, downside correction of the US dollar, despite yesterday’s positive results from the US economy, also collaborates with pair’s mild bullish trend on Thursday. Besides the ECB minutes, nothing noteworthy is scheduled in the data calendar for today, so the pair will continue to trace global market trend to determine its further trajectory during the NA session.

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Friday, October 6th

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish control so far this session, wobbling in the region of its nearly 2-month lows, marked earlier this morning in the vicinity of 1.1700, as upbeat sentiments around the dollar are weighing the pair. Recent pickup in demand of the US dollar could be explained by the latest Fed talks on another rate hike at the end of this year and a slew of positive economic releases, seen earlier this week. On the other hand, yesterday’s ECB Sept meeting minutes showed regulator's intent to keep its monetary policy highly accommodative. This stance of the regulator sparked another wave of speculations regarding the divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and ECB, which added some extra bearish pressure on the pair. On the data front, today the EU docket won’t bring anything noteworthy, leaving the pair at the mercy of widespread market moods, while the US data calendar contains much awaited NFP data, which will set up sentiments around the greenback in short-term projection.

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Monday, October 9th

The EUR/USD pair shows subdued dynamics at the first working day of this week, however, remaining under mild pressure on the back of attempts of the US dollar to recover after Friday’s disappointment. At the end of the last week, the pair received strong bullish impetus after the US published weak NFP numbers, which strongly weighed on the greenback across the market. Moreover, escalation of the conflict between North Korea and the US, as indicated by recent news headlines, saying that North Korea is planning to test a ballistic missile, which is capable to reach continental part of the US, supports euro’s status of funding currency. Today the EU data calendar will bring only secondary data reports, which most likely won’t trigger any sharp moves of the pair, while the US market will remain closed today due to national holiday celebration, so broad market trend will remain the key driving factor for the pair on Monday.

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Tuesday, October 10th

The EUR/USD pair continues to show positive dynamics for the third consecutive session on the back of weaker positions of the US dollar, despite uncertain political climate in Spain. However, further upside looks unlikely, as now all market’s attention remains focused on Catalonia President Carles Puigdemont's speech, who, as expected, can declare the independence of the region unilaterally. This outcome of the current situation may trigger spike of volatility across the market and, as a result, massive moves of the pair. However, ongoing weakness of the US dollar, backed by awful results from the US labor market, continues to navigate the market, offering some support to the main currency pair lately. Today both economic calendars lack any major market moving releases, so developments on Spain’s political field will remain as an exclusive driving factor for the pair on Tuesday.


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Wednesday, October 11th

The EUR/USD pair remains better bid on Wednesday, mostly ignoring uncertainty surrounding Spain. Yesterday Catalonia’s President Carles Puigdemont and other regional politicians signed a document declaring Catalonia's independence from Spain. Moreover, Mr. Puigdemont also delivered a speech, begging Spanish government for a dialog. However, the Spanish government keeps its position clear and does not recognize actions of the Catalan leader. On the other hand, ongoing weakness of the US dollar, additionally boosted by yesterday’s dovish comments of Dallas Fed Chief R.Kaplan, pointing on a postponement of Fed rate hike this year, also collaborates with pair’s upside in the middle of this week. Today all traders’ attention will remain focused on the FOMC Sept meeting minutes, which will be able to bring fresh insight on further Fed monetary policy path, while data from the US labor market and developments from the Spanish political field will also be able to provide the pair directional impetus in the day ahead.

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Thursday, October 12th

The EUR/USD pair extends its northward trend for the fifth consecutive session, having refreshed its 2-week highs in the vicinity of 1.1880 level, on the back of ongoing decline of the greenback. Recent weakness of the dollar is mostly attributed to the dovish outcome of the latest FOMC meeting, which revealed that some members were worried that recent drawdown of the inflation may not be temporary. These dovish comments eased market’s confidence that the Fed will continue to implement more aggressive tightening path of the monetary policy. Moreover, the common currency continues to benefit from easing concerns over the separation of Catalonia. Yesterday Spanish PM M.Rajoy announced that he gives 5 days to Catalonia’s leader C.Puigdemont to clarify the situation with the independence of Catalonia and 3 more days to "correct" it. Today all traders attention will remain focused on the US PPI data and several speeches from both sides, which will set up pair’s further trajectory during this trading session, while tomorrow’s US CPI report will keep investors from making important decisions, especially in light of the outcome of the latest FOMC meeting.

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Friday, October 13th

The EUR/USD pair lost its upside momentum this morning, having met resistance in the vicinity of 1.1850 level, on the back of attempts of the US dollar to correct higher against its main competitor after drawdown, backed by less hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. On the other hand, the pair was trading on a positive note during Asia, as the euro received a fresh boost, following recent headlines, saying that the ECB is considering the tapering of the QE program, starting from January 2018. However, further sharp moves of the pair look unlikely, as we are heading closer to the key event of this Friday – the release of the US CPI report, which could reinforce market’s expectations of more aggressive Fed monetary policy tightening path. Besides the US inflation, investors will also pay attention to US retail sales numbers, which will also be able to bring some additional impetus to the pair.

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Monday, October 16th

The EUR/USD pair extends its downside trend for the third consecutive day, having breached the level of 1.1800 this morning, on the back of headlines about ECB QE program and expectations of the outcome on the Catalan independence declaration. The political uncertainty surrounding Catalonia’s independence vote remains one of the key driving factors for the pair, as worries about further escalation of political uncertainty in Spain weigh on the common currency. Moreover, recent news headlines, stating that the ECB intends to implement only minor adjustments in the QE program, which won’t be able to affect the overall picture, exert extra pressure on the euro. Adding to this, Friday’s dovish comments of ECB president M.Draghi, who once again reiterated the need of more accommodative monetary policy, forced the pair to close eyes to Friday’s disappointing US inflation and retail sales figures. Today both economic calendars won’t offer anything relevant, so the pair will continue to navigate, following broad market trend, while any developments from Spanish political field will be able to trigger volatility in the day ahead.

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Tuesday, October 17th

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish control for the fourth consecutive session, as uncertainty on the political field of Spain drags the euro lower against its main competitors. Yesterday Catalonia leader Carles Puigdemont failed to provide more clarity on the current situation, so the Spanish government gave him more time to decide on whether he wants to declare the independency of Catalonia or not. Moreover, continuing optimism around the US dollar remains one of the key driving factors across the market so far this week, which also negatively affects the pair. On the data front, now investors are looking forward to the release of the German ZE surveys and Eurozone final CPI report, which will be able to set up pair’s next trajectory, while the US calendar will offer only secondary data reports during the NA session, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend.

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Wednesday, October 18th

The EUR/USD pair extends its bearish trend for the fifth consecutive session, remaining within striking distance of its weekly lows, marked yesterday at 1.1736 spot. Ongoing decline of the pair could be mainly explained by increasing demand for the US dollar. Yesterday the greenback caught fresh bids after hawkish comments of Fed member P.Harker, who predicted another three rate hikes next year, which were considered by the market as hint on more aggressive Fed monetary policy tightening. Moreover, yesterday US President D.Trump added some extra optimism around the US dollar, saying that he wants to implement tax reform by Christmas. On the other side, any further recovery of the euro looks unlikely, as the Catalan crisis is still unresolved. Today, the head of the ECB M.Draghi is expected to speak, while the US will release data from the housing market, which will provide additional trading opportunities to investors during the NA session.

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Thursday, October 19th

The EUR/USD pair stays positive on Thursday, having refreshed this week tops at 1.1822 level, as slight weakness of the US dollar is one of the key driving factors on the market. Seems that yesterday’s retreat of the greenback, additionally boosted by lackluster US housing data, supports the pair in the second half of this week, forcing it to keep its positions above the level of 1.1800. However, the pair stalled its downside direction in early Europe, as investors are digesting recent headlines, saying that the Catalan leader C.Puigdemont threatened Spain PM M.Rajoy that he would declare formal independence in case of no dialogue from Madrid. In response to this announcement, the Spanish PM intends to call a cabinet meeting on Saturday to discuss current situation. Expected, that today the pair will remain influenced by Catalan political updates, while the US will release Philly Fed manufacturing index, which will bring additional trading opportunities during the NA session.

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Friday, October 20th

The EUR/USD pair met strong selling pressure on Friday after two consecutive session with gains, falling below the level of 1.1800. The downside rally of the pair could be mainly explained by renewed demand for the US dollar, as the US Senate has passed 2018 budget blueprint, which brings US President D.Trump’s tax reforms one-step closer to its implementation. Adding to this, ongoing uncertainty on the political field of Spain also collaborates with pair’s retreat, as the Spanish government could suspend Catalonia’s autonomy on Saturday in response to recent threats of C.Puigdemont to declare the independency of Catalonia, which remains one of the negative scenario of events. Today we will have pretty quiet data session, as EU data calendar lacks any important data releases, while the US will publish only existing home sales data, so broad market trend and the US dollar price dynamics will remain as key navigators for the pair during this trading session.

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Monday, October 23rd

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish control on Monday, as continuing political uncertainty surrounding Spain and positive mood of the US dollar are limiting pair’s chances to recover its positions. Recent comments of Spanish authorities, stating that the government agreed to implement Article 155, which allows the central government to take control of Catalonia, are pointing on escalation of the conflict on the political field of Spain. These developments play the role of negative factor for the euro, thus limiting pair’s further recovery. Moreover, ongoing optimism around the greenback, triggered by the approval of the US Senate 2018 budget blueprint, which gives a greenlight to long-awaited US President D.Trump’s tax reforms, is also contributing to pair’s retreat. On the data front, today the economic calendar will remain broadly silent, so any headlines about developments in Spain and the US dollar dynamics will be key navigators for the pair during this trading session.

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Tuesday, October 24th

The EUR/USD pair regained its bullish tone and now is navigating back to its intraday highs, marked at 1.1770 spot, following positive German manufacturing data. However, further growth may appear capped, as markets are digesting latest developments from Spain. Recently Catalan government warned about the possibility of civil disobedience in response to recent comments of Spanish PM M.Rajoy, who intends to introduce direct rule to the Catalonia region. Adding to that, slight cautiousness across the market is starting to gather the pace, also limiting pair’s gains, as we are heading closer to the key event of this week – ECB monetary policy meeting, which will take place on Thursday. Market participants expect from ECB President M.Draghi detailed information about possible changes in the QE program. On the data front, nothing else is left in the economic calendar for this Tuesday, so further political developments from Spain and the US dollar price changes will remain as key driving factors for the pair during this trading session.

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Wednesday, October 25th

The EUR/USD pair trades without clear direction on Wednesday, staying within 1.1755-70 narrow range, on the back of increasing cautiousness across the market, as we are heading towards important event, which will be held during the next trading session. The pair remains broadly resilient to positive tone of the greenback today, as investors refrain from placing any important directional bets ahead of the ECB monetary policy meeting. It is widely expected that the Bank will reaffirm the need of accommodative monetary policy, while any comments regarding potential QE program adjustments may appear highly influential for the pair. Looking ahead, today we have a pretty busy trading session, which will bring German business climate data and pack of the US releases that will be able to set up pair’s next near-term trend, while broad cautiousness and the US dollar price changes will also have some impact on the pair during this day.

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Thursday, October 26th

The EUR/USD pair shows positive dynamics for the third session in a row mainly on the back of widespread retreat of the US dollar. Yesterday the pair broke through its important resistance level of 1.1800 and now is consolidating its positions above that mark, despite positive US macroeconomic data, released during the last session. The main reason of greenback’s weakness remains uncertainty regarding who will be the next head of the Fed, as the term of current Fed Chair J.Yellen ends in early 2018. However, any further sharp moves of the pair look unlikely, as investors took a breather ahead of the key event of this week – the ECB meeting. It is expected that the regulator won’t change its current interest rate level, while any ECB QE taper announcement will trigger a massive wave of volatility across the market. Besides the ECB meeting, today we also have pending home sales report due for release later in the NA session, however, it is expected that the market reaction will be limited in the light of more important events.

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Friday, October 27th

The EUR/USD pair came under enormously high bearish pressure during last session, having declined to the level of 1.1624, which was last seen in late July, after ECB President M.Draghi announced dovish QE program taper. The ECB reduced QE size by half and simultaneously extended its duration, thus maintaining the same level of stimulus as before and also showing that the Bank intends to retain highly accommodative monetary policy in the near future. In reference to that, Mr. Draghi also added that QE would not stop suddenly, leaving doors opened for further extension of the QE program. This outcome of the ECB meeting highly disappointed the market, forcing the pair to lose nearly 2 cents since yesterday’s highs. Adding to this, the greenback received bullish impetus, increasing its positions across the market, after the House of Representatives passed a budget bill that cleared the way for long-awaited D.Trump tax cuts. Today both data calendars will remain broadly silent, widespread market trend will remain the key driving factor for the pair, as investors are still digesting recent events.

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