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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #1,741
  • Oct 22, 2017 6:20am Oct 22, 2017 6:20am
Quoting simnz
{quote} You are moving closer to find your edge. By trading all non-exotic 28 symbols you are actually keeping winners and losers both with you. So drawdown issue will not threaten you. Loser pay for the winners who pay for the intermediaries like brokers in form of fees, spreads, slippage and manipulations done through MT4 plug-ins. Now look for a genuine retail broker whose spreads and slippages exceed not more than 5%. So for every win you will be sharing 5% with the intermediaries. You will have 20 chances to lose if you fail to find your winning...
Please do testing to find how many times losers have upset the winners and how many times the equity loss has happened.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #1,742
  • Oct 22, 2017 11:10am Oct 22, 2017 11:10am
Quoting VEEFX
Outcome: Just toss a f*cking coin LMAO
don't chose, trade both...
  • #1,743
  • Oct 22, 2017 1:06pm Oct 22, 2017 1:06pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} A stencil is collection of dots and nothing more than. a line chart made of dots. A line chart on a target timeframe (I.e. H1 timeframe in the above example) is nothing more than a collection of such small(er) line charts / stencils. I stumbled upon this DNA while automating the Equity Millipede strategy (actually while working on developing a equity Millipede indicator in the early days that is no longer used after this discovery!). Quite the irony. Hope my post is not appearing more cryptic like CP lol
It does sound confusing to me - perhaps a picture if you may?


On a side note, I've been observing and taking mental notes on the discussions going on. Threads like this are like trends, a dime a dozen. If only I could catch and ride the waves as easily as I did these thought provoking threads ...soon...
  • #1,744
  • Oct 22, 2017 4:00pm Oct 22, 2017 4:00pm
I've read this thread with great interest. But many times I think that even with our great minds and intellect, we are unable to capture the plethora of all the 'variables' that are factored into this market every minute of every day. In example, I recently placed 16 trades (all in one direction to create an internal hedge) without looking at charts, working complicated math formulas, checking fundamentals, or performing any analysis whatsoever. It just seemed to me that the majority of the pairs were going long. Two weeks later, I'm 13 for 16 positive and up over 7250 pips. You might say, well it could have just gone the other way. Yes, it could have - but if it had, I would have cut my losses early and just started the process all over again. You know, this entire business may just be that simple.
  • #1,745
  • Oct 23, 2017 7:50am Oct 23, 2017 7:50am
Quoting Warburg
I've read this thread with great interest. But many times I think that even with our great minds and intellect, we are unable to capture the plethora of all the 'variables' that are factored into this market every minute of every day. In example, I recently placed 16 trades (all in one direction to create an internal hedge) without looking at charts, working complicated math formulas, checking fundamentals, or performing any analysis whatsoever. It just seemed to me that the majority of the pairs were going long. Two weeks later, I'm 13 for 16 positive...
Glad to have you here Warburg. Over the years, I have enjoyed reading your posts (limited, to the point and insightful ! I just wished you would post more often lol)

I still happen to be in the camp of "Exits matter more than Entries". With my focus turning more on containing drawdowns (max 15% is my new target down from 35% for TF systems), I am moving towards more razor sharpness in my entries but you are 100% right. "Cut My Losses" is the epicenter of any strategy strategy. Entries don't matter to me because my automation trades @ 0.10% - 0.25% risk per trade. Slow growth but slower drawdowns as well with focus not on making money but preserving trading capital. This is especially important with systemic strategies :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,746
  • Oct 23, 2017 10:08am Oct 23, 2017 10:08am
VEE, I do appreciate your kind words. It appears we're reading from the same page. I mention the word 'variables' a lot, but the longer I'm in this game, the more I believe that this word needs to dominate our thinking. Again, with all of these 'variables' constantly being factored in, our concentration needs to be - simply put, making more on our wins than we're loosing on our loses. One of the biggest mistakes we make is 'trying to figure it out'. I'm not sure it can be done, at least in the traditional sense - and it's not necessary in order to win. The price will go 'where' it wants to go 'when' it wants to go there and there is very little if anything that can be done to determine the outcome. Our best methodology is to become very efficient at managing our inventory.
  • #1,747
  • Oct 23, 2017 10:45am Oct 23, 2017 10:45am
The only thing you control is risk.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #1,748
  • Oct 23, 2017 10:47am Oct 23, 2017 10:47am
Sis.yphus
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #1,749
  • Oct 23, 2017 10:57am Oct 23, 2017 10:57am
Higher edge by not using candles but by using points withing. a series of breakouts from reference and risk following. Scalping along the yellow brick road

Timing is crucial
spread is their defense.
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #1,750
  • Oct 23, 2017 12:16pm Oct 23, 2017 12:16pm
Quoting Jorg
{quote} Some very good statistical analysis... I was wondering % of price returning to its opening??? Do anyone have any that statistic??
within 1 to 30 pips is 68 %
  • #1,751
  • Oct 23, 2017 1:21pm Oct 23, 2017 1:21pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} within 1 to 30 pips is 68 %
How did you arrive to this conclusion? On daily? How far back? Which pair? Sorry/ devil is always buried in the details :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,752
  • Oct 23, 2017 5:36pm Oct 23, 2017 5:36pm
Quoting VEEFX
""95% of the time price will close above or below the open." - CrucialPoint "99% of the time price will always go above and below the open" - VeeFX "100% of the time next tick will always be above or below the last tick" - VeeFx About the author: VeeFX is a renowned professional trader and Author of New York's Best Seller "The Highest Edge in a Single Candle" now available in eBook on Amazon for 99 cents ÷ $99 shipping and handling. This is a limited time offer to the first 100 traders who subscribe to this thread :-)
What if the tick just contains a change in book data?
  • #1,753
  • Edited 8:04pm Oct 23, 2017 6:44pm | Edited 8:04pm
Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} What if the tick just contains a change in book data?
You mean Order Book? what type of data? regardless a movement in tick will always be either up or down and never flat. Flat will be a long pause :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,754
  • Oct 23, 2017 6:53pm Oct 23, 2017 6:53pm
Quoting Warburg
VEE, I do appreciate your kind words. It appears we're reading from the same page. I mention the word 'variables' a lot, but the longer I'm in this game, the more I believe that this word needs to dominate our thinking. Again, with all of these 'variables' constantly being factored in, our concentration needs to be - simply put, making more on our wins than we're loosing on our loses. One of the biggest mistakes we make is 'trying to figure it out'. I'm not sure it can be done, at least in the traditional sense - and it's not necessary in order...
Thanks Warburg. I wanted to post my 100% edge first before this post. Any simple, logical and sensible setup can be profitable with the appraoch to "Cut your losses and Let Winners run just a little longer". Unfortunately, I want the drawdown to be preditable and not left on the market. I am only willing to have unpredictable profits. Risk and Drawdown HAS to be contained in order to preserve my trading capital. I am surprised at myself to see this big shift in my psychology from the Millipede thread :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,755
  • Oct 23, 2017 8:37pm Oct 23, 2017 8:37pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} You mean Order Book? what type of data? regardless a movement in tick will always be either up or down and never flat. Flat will be a long pause :-)
Tick usually means any update in the order book (all levels not just best bid/best offer). so if a new bid gets added to order book at same or worse price than the best current bid, this will be tick but price will not change.

Anyhow retail traders should not worry about this as this data is not available to retail and also it changes very fast (around news time, there can be 500+ ticks in one second).
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #1,756
  • Edited Oct 24, 2017 12:25am Oct 23, 2017 8:43pm | Edited Oct 24, 2017 12:25am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks Warburg. I wanted to post my 100% edge first before this post. Any simple, logical and sensible setup can be profitable with the appraoch to "Cut your losses and Let Winners run just a little longer". Unfortunately, I want the drawdown to be preditable and not left on the market. I am only willing to have unpredictable profits. Risk and Drawdown HAS to be contained in order to preserve my trading capital. I am surprised at myself to see this big shift in my psychology from the Millipede thread :-)
Only way to really control the drawdown is to keep cutting your bet size as your equity goes down. This means that at your max drawdown limit, your trade size will become 0 and no further drawdown will happen (and also you will never come out of drawdown). There is no other way - I can even prove it by Proof_by_contradiction method.

Assuming there exists a strategy that guarantees the max drawdown to be X%. Now suppose we are at X% drawdown currently. That means, the strategy will take next trade which will have 0 drawdown. i.e. strategy will pick next trade which will not move even 1pip against you. We all know that strategy cannot exist because if it did, then we could just bet the farm on that last trade. Hence no strategy can guarantess the max drawdown to be X%.

What you can do is reduce the probability of drawdown to exceed x%. something like, there is only 5% chance that drawdown will exceed 15%.
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #1,757
  • Oct 23, 2017 11:55pm Oct 23, 2017 11:55pm
Quoting stt
{quote} Tick usually means any update in the order book (all levels not just best bid/best offer). so if a new bid gets added to order book at same or worse price than the best current bid, this will be tick but price will not change. Anyhow retail traders should not worry about this as this data is not available to retail and also it changes very fast (around news time, there can be 500+ ticks in one second).
Thanks srt. Insightful and interesting. That is why I don't trust tick data and presumptuous retail "order flow". It's all fake, untrustworthy, unreliable and prone to scams. I came to this conclusion long time ago when i ran a spread recorder script between ATC brokers and FXCM MT4 platforms. Both were using the same price feeds at that time back in 2011/2012. Quite the disparity between the two. The few more broker comparisons and i quickly came to the conclusion that any strategy has to be free of broker manipulation via spreads, slippage etc. For that reason, i use the law of large numbers to tilt the needle.

Thanks again for your post on drawdown. It fascinates me how much i continue to learn.
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,758
  • Oct 24, 2017 1:16am Oct 24, 2017 1:16am
Quoting stt
{quote} Only way to really control the drawdown is to keep cutting your bet size as your equity goes down. This means that at your max drawdown limit, your trade size will become 0 and no further drawdown will happen (and also you will never come out of drawdown). There is no other way - I can even prove it by Proof_by_contradiction method. Assuming there exists a strategy that guarantees the max drawdown to be X%. Now suppose we are at X% drawdown currently. That means, the strategy will take next trade which will have 0 drawdown. i.e. strategy...
Drawdown :trailing profit ratio is the key for momentum trading. Use of constant and varying lots is a tool of a realistic trader who does not believe he controls the market.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #1,759
  • Oct 24, 2017 5:32am Oct 24, 2017 5:32am
Quoting Neio
"95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote.
When I fist read the above line, I could not figure out for 100% what you meant.. after awhile I open this post today, fist thing caught my eye was the line above and I visually saw what you mean..
  • #1,760
  • Oct 24, 2017 1:56pm Oct 24, 2017 1:56pm
Quoting shadow2017
{quote} When I fist read the above line, I could not figure out for 100% what you meant.. after awhile I open this post today, fist thing caught my eye was the line above and I visually saw what you mean..
It's just a confusing/mysterious way of saying use the open as your filter, buy if the market is above the open, sell if the market is below. I haven't seen any statistical data to back up this theory. I've kept it in mind from time to time but haven't noticed it holding true.
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