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  • #421
  • Oct 22, 2017 9:55am Oct 22, 2017 9:55am
Quoting Venomousssss
{quote} The ECB has been ripe for tapering for a couple of months but is struggling to do so in a way that doesnt cause the euro to become more bullish than it already has been. With the dollar sentiment changing for the better, this week might prove a better gamble for the ECB to give more hawkish remarks than in the previous months. I think the big concern for the ECB in doing this is the uncertainty about the Fed's December rate decision due to lack of inflation. Im sure they'd much prefer to see the US GDP figures a day before their announcement...
This is a great analysis of the challenges facing the ECB. How are you planning to trade this event? What are you looking to see?
  • #422
  • Oct 22, 2017 9:55am Oct 22, 2017 9:55am
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} Here is the question we have to ask, why does anticipation move the market? Well, big money can't trade like retail traders. We can enter and exit when we want. However, when you are trying to move $10 billion dollars in or out of the market, you can't wait until the number is released. You have to ease into the market before, and after the number is released. Have you heard the idea that something has "already been priced in?" Before you know how something got price in it is easy to think that big money has insider information. The big...
Link those posts for me if you get time. Would like to read them
  • #423
  • Oct 22, 2017 10:01am Oct 22, 2017 10:01am
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} This is a great analysis of the challenges facing the ECB. How are you planning to trade this event? What are you looking to see?
Ill likely sideline when the news hits and try and read between the lines.. if hawkish action is taken but contains enough bearish comments that have no data value, ill look to long if the price drops to a technical area of opportunity. If market responds very bullishishly to the news, ill wait for retracement before taking a long. My overall sentiment on eur/usd is bullish primary based on my lack of faith in the dollar at the moment.

I would like to see a bearish response to dovish words with strong bullish data to get a good long entry at a strong support
  • #424
  • Oct 22, 2017 10:16am Oct 22, 2017 10:16am
Cheetah and Fader, if either of you get a moment to lend initial thoughts on eur/nzd for this week early on, I'd like your opinions. NZD bank holiday today after a massive drop to end the week. Im somewhat uncertain historically how this would play out on the open into monday
  • #425
  • Oct 22, 2017 10:35am Oct 22, 2017 10:35am
Sure venomousss will have a look tonight
  • #426
  • Oct 22, 2017 10:40am Oct 22, 2017 10:40am
I think Draghi will structure it so that tapering does not meet expectations.
They have already been trimmed back
He has spent all that money getting inflation to 1.5%.
It's slowly going up. Target is just under 2%.
Might have some strength going into the event.
Will need to do some more research.
  • #427
  • Oct 22, 2017 10:45am Oct 22, 2017 10:45am
I'm a little post happy today I spose', But likely to be the best thread to dump this question/thought. The U.S. equities markets are sky high, the growth shown across most sectors is growing, and the sentiment on the dollar is quickly becoming very bullish. But from my point of view... we are at "near full employment" (however I place less stock in these figures based on how inaccurately they are calculated), our debt is growing fast while interest rates are low, but inflation is not rising. So basically we are owing more and more money, and the money supply is not rising and potentially dropping. This to me screams red flag. If I have a business where I'm fully staffed with employees that demand a good wage because I have a difficult time filling the positions with people that will accept less, I am producing more product to meet demand rather than producing less at a higher cost which would keep my overhead down..in turn producing more is costing me more..keeping my profits from growing. On top of that when machinery breaks I am using a credit card to fix it and racking up debt. My sales on the surface look great, but in the end if people aren't willing to start paying more for my product that im producing at too low a profit, I can't give my employees a raise or pay off my increasing debt. I also cant cut my employees pay because they will quit..so now what?? This to me is a general representation of the us economy currently. How long can I stay in business operation this way? Depends how much the bank will let me borrow I guess..and hoping that people will pay higher prices for my products without understanding why currently, they are not willing to..
  • #428
  • Oct 22, 2017 10:52am Oct 22, 2017 10:52am
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} Here is the question we have to ask, why does anticipation move the market? Well, big money can't trade like retail traders. We can enter and exit when we want. However, when you are trying to move $10 billion dollars in or out of the market, you can't wait until the number is released. You have to ease into the market before, and after the number is released. Have you heard the idea that something has "already been priced in?" Before you know how something got price in it is easy to think that big money has insider information. The big...
Thanks Cheetah.
It's just waiting for an opportunity to present itself.
If it doesn't I can wait.
Trading really is an art and you have to get into sync with the currency.
  • #429
  • Oct 22, 2017 1:54pm Oct 22, 2017 1:54pm
Quoting Fader123
I would not subscribe just read this https://www.efxnews.com/news-archives
Many thanks Fader. I will check it out again.I appreciate.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #430
  • Oct 22, 2017 2:02pm Oct 22, 2017 2:02pm
Quoting Fader123
Main event of the week will be ECB tapering. This could be a decent trade. Views anyone?
I am bullish on the Euro as some of the data in recent months have been positive. However, i feel the market has moved faster than the ECB hence the caution on the roll back from the ECB, I will be looking to buy the dips.

NB - In EAUD long position already.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #431
  • Oct 22, 2017 2:05pm Oct 22, 2017 2:05pm
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} Here is the question we have to ask, why does anticipation move the market? Well, big money can't trade like retail traders. We can enter and exit when we want. However, when you are trying to move $10 billion dollars in or out of the market, you can't wait until the number is released. You have to ease into the market before, and after the number is released. Have you heard the idea that something has "already been priced in?" Before you know how something got price in it is easy to think that big money has insider information. The big...
Nice post Cheetah. Hopefully Fader will be willing to educate us more
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #432
  • Oct 22, 2017 2:23pm Oct 22, 2017 2:23pm
TOPSHOTS EU parliament's Brexit pointman pokes May to pay up
London, Oct 22, 2017 (AFP) -
Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament's Brexit coordinator, told British Prime Minister Theresa May on Sunday to confront the Brexiteers in her cabinet and offer greater concessions to the EU.
Verhofstadt told The Mail on Sunday newspaper that May should confront Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and other Brexit cheerleaders and outline what sort of trade deal she wants, following this week's summit in Brussels.
European Union leaders threw May a lifeline in Brexit talks on Friday, agreeing at the summit to start preparations for the next stage of negotiations on post-Brexit trade and a transition deal.
European capitals are demanding detailed written commitments on the divorce bill from London before consenting to the start of trade talks, fearing that Britain's departure in 2019 will blow a hole in the bloc's budget.
Verhofstadt said May should call the bluff of the "increasingly desperate Brexiteers" and "outline, once and for all, what kind of future relationship the country wants with the European Union".
"This may require Theresa May to face down Boris Johnson and others in her own party who refuse to accept the reality of the Brexit they campaigned for," he said.
"Brexiteers failed to outline the extent of UK liabilities in Europe. Nevertheless, what is clear is that it will not be the taxpayers of the European Union who pay Britain's bar bill."
- 'Complicated and deeply technical' -
May is expected to update parliament on the summit outcome on Monday.
She was to reaffirm her commitment to the three million EU nationals living in Britain who make an "extraordinary contribution", saying "we want them to stay".
She was also to call on the other 27 EU states likewise to protect the rights of British expats.
"The negotiations are complicated and deeply technical but in the end they are about people -- and I am determined that we will put people first," she was to say, according to an extract appearing across the Sunday newspapers.
Britain's Brexit Secretary David Davis is due to travel to Paris for talks on Monday, days after French President Emmanuel Macron suggested at the summit that London would need to ramp up its divorce payment offer to unlock trade negotiations.
Davis is due to have dinner with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.
Meanwhile the main opposition Labour Party has said it will join forces with rebels from May's governing Conservatives to try to force the prime minister into giving parliament a veto on the final Brexit deal.
Labour's Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer, writing in The Sunday Times newspaper, demanded MPs get the "final say on whether to approve the withdrawal agreement and how best to implement it".
"Labour will work with all sides to make that happen," he wrote.

Source: AP
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #433
  • Oct 22, 2017 5:30pm Oct 22, 2017 5:30pm
Quoting Venomousssss
Cheetah and Fader, if either of you get a moment to lend initial thoughts on eur/nzd for this week early on, I'd like your opinions. NZD bank holiday today after a massive drop to end the week. Im somewhat uncertain historically how this would play out on the open into monday
To be honest I don't have a strong grasp of the Euro portion of this trade. Here is an article that lays out some of the challenges NZ is going to face:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11935761
  • #434
  • Oct 22, 2017 5:51pm Oct 22, 2017 5:51pm
Quoting Venomousssss
Cheetah and Fader, if either of you get a moment to lend initial thoughts on eur/nzd for this week early on, I'd like your opinions. NZD bank holiday today after a massive drop to end the week. Im somewhat uncertain historically how this would play out on the open into monday
I think that you should be ok
This issue with New Zealand is a really big deal
Policies include cutting immigration, restricting overseas property investors
Current sentiment can only continue.
Also I understand that the RBNZ have also been put in charge of employment.
And they are going to change its structure.
Draghi is going to taper on 26th, so I think we could see strength on the Euro

I think that traders are just going to get excited again and bid it up
  • #435
  • Oct 22, 2017 6:48pm Oct 22, 2017 6:48pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} I think that you should be ok This issue with New Zealand is a really big deal Policies include cutting immigration, restricting overseas property investors Current sentiment can only continue. Also I understand that the RBNZ have also been put in charge of employment. And they are going to change its structure. Draghi is going to taper on 26th, so I think we could see strength on the Euro I think that traders are just going to get excited again and bid it up
I agree...We often talk about monetary policy divergence (when one central bank is looking to hike, and another is looking to cut)

Fader just laid out a great "sentiment divergence" trade. ECB actions are leading to greed, and the attack on the RBNZ is causing fear.
  • #436
  • Oct 22, 2017 7:54pm Oct 22, 2017 7:54pm
Hoping so. Intending to hold the long all week if its worth while..
  • #437
  • Oct 23, 2017 1:55am Oct 23, 2017 1:55am
My other thought is that the ECB did dash expectations on the level of the tapering last Thursday
In some ways that is good because whatever comes out from Thursday could be better than expected
Also AUS CPI is coming out on Weds way above estimates.
Additionally you seem to have a very high leveraged position.
The problem is if there is a positive statement from the Labour government in NZ you could be under a lot of water
As you say you are going to hold out for the rest of the week. Let's see what happens on Thursday
  • #438
  • Oct 23, 2017 12:04pm Oct 23, 2017 12:04pm
Just came in now to see that I missed some great discussion earlier.

This Reuters article is a fun read http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-jap...-idUKKBN1CP0GY

I kind of find it out be hilarious... but it is really serious stuff.
  • #439
  • Oct 23, 2017 1:08pm Oct 23, 2017 1:08pm
Quoting Fader123
My other thought is that the ECB did dash expectations on the level of the tapering last Thursday In some ways that is good because whatever comes out from Thursday could be better than expected Also AUS CPI is coming out on Weds way above estimates. Additionally you seem to have a very high leveraged position. The problem is if there is a positive statement from the Labour government in NZ you could be under a lot of water As you say you are going to hold out for the rest of the week. Let's see what happens on Thursday
ive got a stop in place that im willing to stomach if ive gotta.but yes. leveraged at 20:1
  • #440
  • Oct 23, 2017 1:16pm Oct 23, 2017 1:16pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
Just came in now to see that I missed some great discussion earlier. This Reuters article is a fun read http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-jap...-idUKKBN1CP0GY I kind of find it out be hilarious... but it is really serious stuff.
This is who we are playing against 4rXal-ghul
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