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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #5,181
  • Oct 16, 2017 1:33pm Oct 16, 2017 1:33pm
Quoting MoneyFocus
{quote} Yes, what gives? Very confusing to me as well. GBP just fell off the cliff like...
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  • #5,182
  • Oct 16, 2017 1:56pm Oct 16, 2017 1:56pm
Quoting Lock
2017/10/16 MONDAY 08:08+1GMT WEEKLY REPORT .... Having said this it must be underlined that price is acting inside two major levels: 32674 the last minor bracket top and 33393 the last short term action downside half back. So these levels could work as support and resistance. Going forward downside then we will have a mid term level 31637 (the half back of the upper monthly bracket) while going upwards, far above, we will...
Well, not so much to say. Almost the entire day have been spent testing the first of our lower support 3674. Then it broke below it and reached exactly our second support 31637. 32273 brexit low (sorry for the mistake)

The interesting thing is the volatility and the extreme weakness of current market. Note in fact the GB poor high 33115 and the pit poor high 32905 left above.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,183
  • Oct 16, 2017 2:06pm Oct 16, 2017 2:06pm
So from here we could continue lower if acceptance will be obtained below brexit low 32273. And in this case we could reach composite poc 3206 and our lower mid term level 31637. Or, if no acceptance will be obtained below 32273 we could retrace back in order to correct the poor highs left upside. Note that the last period is an inside one.

In any case sorry for today, I didn't participate to the market for personal reasons. Have a nice continuation. Best, L.

PS: note that the main info is that last inside week has not been tested nor above nor below its extremes (see weekly report). So, currently we are still in balance.
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  • #5,184
  • Oct 17, 2017 8:30pm Oct 17, 2017 8:30pm
Quoting Lock
So from here we could continue lower if acceptance will be obtained below brexit low 32273. And in this case we could reach composite poc 3206 and our lower mid term level 31637. Or, if no acceptance will be obtained below 32273 we could retrace back in order to correct the poor highs left upside. Note that the last period is an inside one. In any case sorry for today, I didn't participate to the market for personal reasons. Have a nice continuation. Best, L. PS: note that the main info is that...
So 31637 has been eventually reached and tested during last pit session. We are now in the zone of attraction of composite poc 3206 but also of comp poc 3191 and of the lower 3137. And the pit session left downside a poor low at 3155. So a new test of 31637 is also possible. A lot of weaknesses left upside in the last 2 days.

And finally, note that the last inside week has not been tested yet nor above nor below. So we still are in balance.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,185
  • Oct 19, 2017 1:09am Oct 19, 2017 1:09am
Quoting Lock
{quote} So 31637 has been eventually reached and tested during last pit session. We are now in the zone of attraction of composite poc 3206 but also of comp poc 3191 and of the lower 3137. And the pit session left downside a poor low at 3155. So a new test of 31637 is also possible. A lot of weaknesses left upside...
Yesterday range activity has been limited almost exactly by the 2 composite poc 3206 (upper) and 3137 (lower). The previous pit low at 3155 has been taken out and the very important mid level 31637 retested both by GB and Pit sessions.

Please note that we still are in balance as no test of lower or upper last inside week extremes has been done yet.

Finally note that brexit low 32273 still works as support or resistance any time it is reached.

All these info let me think that we have no conviction at all nor upside nor downside and we also have a substantial lack of participation of major timeframes.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,186
  • Oct 19, 2017 3:26am Oct 19, 2017 3:26am
Hi! In my opinion GBP weakness is coming in longer term view. GbpUsd target 1.27xxx; GbpJpy target under 135.xxx
So my plan is "the higher I can sell - the better"...time will tell...

Regards,
h.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #5,187
  • Edited 6:10am Oct 19, 2017 5:52am | Edited 6:10am
Quoting hathor
Hi! In my opinion GBP weakness is coming in longer term view. GbpUsd target 1.27xxx; GbpJpy target under 135.xxx So my plan is "the higher I can sell - the better"...time will tell... Regards, h.
Hi hathor,

All this GPDUSD action downside started after a failure above upper monthly bracket high at 36326. From there we saw a mid term trend downside underlined by current one time frame action downside of the last 4 weeks. Now, while we clearly are in a one timeframing action downside at the same time we went in balance as last week was an inside one and current one is inside last week. And all this happened around the half back of the upper monthly bracket (31637). So in my opinion if we eventually will get acceptation below this level (31637) then we could easly aim at the bottom of the monthly bracket 27948 (absolute low), or 28637 (pit session low) or 2845 (GB low). So in this case yes: 1.27xx is very possible

If instead we will not get acceptation below the monthly half back, odds will be in favor of a new rally in order to retest the high of the bracket (36326).

About the other pair I do not follow it so I cannot have any particular opinion.

Best, L.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,188
  • Oct 19, 2017 6:22am Oct 19, 2017 6:22am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Hi hathor, All this GPDUSD action downside started after a failure above upper monthly bracket high at 36326. From there we saw a mid term trend downside underlined by current one time frame action downside of the last 4 weeks. Now, while we clearly are in a one timeframing action downside at the same time we went in balance as last week was an inside one and current one is inside last week. And all this happened around the half back of the upper monthly bracket (31637). So in my opinion if we eventually will get acceptation below this level...
Analysis and trading plan:

Monthly: Close of 2017.05.xx - 1.28897 - SELL SIGNAL
Weekly: Close of 2017.09.17 - 1.34492 - SELL SIGNAL
Daily: Close of 2017.10.18 - 1.31392 - BUY SIGNAL
H4: Close of 2017.10.18. 00:00 - 1.31975 - SELL SIGNAL

Mixed signals so what I expect:
1) further move to the downside due to higher time frame sell signals, BUT price will come back later to make a new Daily SELL SIGNAL above current last (buy) SIGNAL -> so 1.31392 will act as a magnet -> and after this finally every time frame will point to the downside
*OR*
2) retest of the previous higher time frame signals - in this case 1.34492, cause Monthly signal is lower, so it's out of sight - to make a new Daily SELL SIGNAL (and H4 and on every lower time frame) -> so every time frame will point to the downside

Regards,
h.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #5,189
  • Oct 23, 2017 3:51am Oct 23, 2017 3:51am
17/10/23 MONDAY 10:57+1GMT
WEEKLY REPORT

Please note that we got 2 back to back inside weeks. We are in full short term balance here even though we still remain in a mid term trend downside.
3146 was Friday GB session spike upside base. Note continuous attempts and tests at major mid term levels 31637 and brexit low 32273. Closest composit pocs are 2963, 3190, 3274.

A lot of weaknesses left both above and below.

Downside we got pit poor lows 3146, 3138 and 31263, followed by GB poor lows 31163 and 31025.
Upside we have pit poor high 32003, 32087 and 32905 followed by GB poor high 33115 and Syd poor high 34023.

Any attempt from current balance could solve first above or below and then go in the opposite direction in order to solve the left weaknesses.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,190
  • Oct 23, 2017 4:02am Oct 23, 2017 4:02am
Quoting Lock
{quote} ...Finally note that brexit low 32273 still works as support or resistance any time it is reached. All these info let me think that we have no conviction at all nor upside nor downside and we also have a substantial lack of participation of major timeframes.
Note overnight activity rejected again at brexit low 32273 (1 single pip shy of it)

Note last GB period inside the previous one: balance rules apply here.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,191
  • Oct 23, 2017 4:23am Oct 23, 2017 4:23am
I think it could be important to recap the inside weeks extremes as these levels could be the turning points for more serious actions above or below.

  1. The first week to consider (the containing one) has absolute (all session activities included) range: 30269-3402
  2. The first inside week has absolute value: 30746-33372
  3. The second inside week has abs. v.: 30872-33115


First of all note that the 2 inside weeks closed both above 31637 the upper monthly bracket half back value. But the first one closed above brexit low 32273 while the last one closed below it.

Considering instead only GB session activity we have the following extremes for the weeks:

  1. First containing GB week range: 30512-33652
  2. First GB inside week range: 31025 (poor low)-33237
  3. Second GB inside week range: 31163-33115 (note that these are both poor week extremes!)

Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,192
  • Oct 23, 2017 1:53pm Oct 23, 2017 1:53pm
Quoting Lock
17/10/23 MONDAY 10:57+1GMT WEEKLY REPORT Please note that we got 2 back to back inside weeks. We are in full short term balance here even though we still remain in a mid term trend downside. 3146 was Friday GB session spike upside base. Note continuous attempts and tests at major mid term levels 31637 and brexit low 32273. Closest composite pocs are 2963, 3190, 3274.
Quoting Lock
17/10/23 MONDAY 10:57+1GMT WEEKLY REPORT ... Upside we have pit poor high 32003, 32087 and 32905 followed by GB poor high 33115 and Syd poor high 34023. Any attempt from current balance could solve first above or below and then go in the opposite direction in order to solve the left weaknesses.
Today a very weak session managed to remove 2 of the 3 pit poor highs upside, remaining substantially stuck at composite poc 3190. We still have a pit gap downside up to 32245 that is working as resistance, immediately followed by the brexit low 32273. While the entire daily market action has been supported by the mid term level 31637.

The balance weak environment remained absolutely unchanged from Friday, The only note is about value that developed overlapping to higher from previous pit session.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,193
  • Oct 24, 2017 2:54am Oct 24, 2017 2:54am
Quoting Lock
{quote} {quote} Today a very weak session managed to remove 2 of the 3 pit poor highs upside, remaining substantially stuck at composite poc 3190. We still have a pit gap downside up to 32245 that is working as resistance, immediately followed by the brexit low 32273. While the entire daily market action has been supported by the mid term level 31637. The balance weak environment remained absolutely unchanged from Friday, The only note is about value that developed overlapping to higher from previous...
Overnight continued exactly to brexit low 32273 that now became extremely weak as Tokyo placed the third back to back high exactly there.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,194
  • Oct 24, 2017 2:56am Oct 24, 2017 2:56am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Overnight continued exactly to brexit low 32273 that now became extremely weak as Tokyo placed the third back to back high exactly there.
This does not mean it cannot hold and it cannot continue current GB liquidation but it means that an action from here could be considered extremely weak as with any probability it is currently leaded by the weakest of the market participants.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,195
  • Oct 24, 2017 3:30am Oct 24, 2017 3:30am
3198: yesterday GB close
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  • #5,196
  • Oct 24, 2017 3:44am Oct 24, 2017 3:44am
Quoting Lock
3198: yesterday GB close
Acceptation above yes GB close 3198 needed for any meaningful continuation upside. In the case you know where it it will go. If not remember the composite poc 3190.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,197
  • Oct 24, 2017 3:58am Oct 24, 2017 3:58am
I have shorted at 3212 and missed the chance to close. I will keep my shorts open for now, it is narrowing down the range, which is an indication of an upcoming outburst which is never good to have open trades at that time. Charts show it is about to go up, which means I am pretty against the probable trend but I would prefer to wait.

I just decided to renew trading since few years and entered without any deep analysis which is a mistake.

Nice thread .
  • #5,198
  • Oct 24, 2017 3:59am Oct 24, 2017 3:59am
Quoting ravenbg
I have shorted at 3212 and missed the chance to close. I will keep my shorts open for now, it is narrowing down the range, which is an indication of an upcoming outburst which is never good to have open trades at that time. Charts show it is about to go up, which means I am pretty against the probable trend but I would prefer to wait. I just decided to renew trading since few years and entered without any deep analysis which is a mistake. Nice thread .
Not sure if it brings any comfort to you, but I'm short at .131957, which is worse than you, and I'm not worried. DXY could see a push toward 94, which can make me green. Hopefully we both get our green pips. Cheers.
  • #5,199
  • Oct 24, 2017 4:10am Oct 24, 2017 4:10am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Acceptation above yes GB close 3198 needed for any meaningful continuation upside. In the case you know where it it will go. If not remember the composite poc 3190.
and here we are.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #5,200
  • Oct 24, 2017 4:11am Oct 24, 2017 4:11am
It's a choppy market, and I was stupid enough to not analyze it before I entered. What concerns me are the higher lows in 1H chart, but on 1D chart there is support at 1.3239 which is holding for 6 weeks now.
Tomorrow we have some High Impact News, so I guess then it should start moving.
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