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AUD/USD

  • #103,161
  • Oct 15, 2017 9:09am Oct 15, 2017 9:09am
Quoting MoneyFocus
{quote} Be wary though, I see DXY potentially bullish too. Might spell issues for Aud/Usd bulls. Besides, the Aud and Nzd have been very resilient the whole of last week already. Might see some fading. I am on the bull camp too, but with caution.

DXY ( Dollar Index Bullish ) ? I see the Weekly chart is Bearish Engulf candle. Correct or not ?
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  • #103,162
  • Oct 15, 2017 5:42pm Oct 15, 2017 5:42pm
A Newspoll conducted for the Australian major political parties has Labor ahead for the 21st straight time in a row.
The PM has signalled that the 30th time could invite a changing of the guard as PM for the LNP.
Problem is there is no standout candidate for the govt.

Sad state of affairs and more evidence Australia is on a road to nowhere #auspol
  • #103,163
  • Oct 15, 2017 7:09pm Oct 15, 2017 7:09pm
Quoting lasty
A Newspoll conducted for the Australian major political parties has Labor ahead for the 21st straight time in a row. The PM has signalled that the 30th time could invite a changing of the guard as PM for the LNP. Problem is there is no standout candidate for the govt. Sad state of affairs and more evidence Australia is on a road to nowhere #auspol
Wouldn't it be great if Abbott was put back in.
  • #103,164
  • Oct 15, 2017 7:29pm Oct 15, 2017 7:29pm
The pair is consolidating around 0.788 level, risk remains on the upside, 0.79 is a key level break above would lead to further gains.
  • #103,165
  • Oct 16, 2017 12:48am Oct 16, 2017 12:48am
been looking to sell since late last week, gonna go on 7909 when I get a chance...that's all I got planned now, see how things unfold, good luck
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #103,166
  • Oct 16, 2017 3:00am Oct 16, 2017 3:00am
Quoting Expo33
Sell orders pending from 7930-7960
With you on this.
I'm looking for a better and higher entry price for shorts.
  • #103,167
  • Oct 16, 2017 6:24am Oct 16, 2017 6:24am
I shorted at 0.7877.
NO MATTER THE SITUATION,NEVER LET YOUR EMOTIONS OVERPOWER YOUR INTELLIGENCE
  • #103,168
  • Oct 16, 2017 9:35am Oct 16, 2017 9:35am
looking to sell near 0.7940 if it gets there

so far, it is above the 20-day moving average
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Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #103,169
  • Oct 16, 2017 10:46am Oct 16, 2017 10:46am
Exited at .80 region and waiting for the pullback.



Taking a small long here at 0.7850 ++ region.
Stop at 0.7830 near the ema 200 and fig 23.6% region on the 1hr.

No real exit target for the next leg up. setting a trailing but gonna gun for .7929 and then watch how it reacts around there.

Dollar feels like it is weakening and i wonder how long it will hold up for. Especially now that the fed hike has been priced in to around 90% implied probability for a hike in December, R:R is there to go contrary for a black swan event.

Doubt Chinese are going to stop pumping easy and flushed cash into Australia anytime soon given my interaction with them. The demand for the aussie dollar at the v.least will be held up by fundamental buying by mom and pop looking to scoop up some assets in Australia for their precious kids.


Levels to watch at the moment.

.7850
.7830
.7880
.7930
There is no royal road to anything.
  • #103,170
  • Oct 16, 2017 12:37pm Oct 16, 2017 12:37pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} With you on this. I'm looking for a better and higher entry price for shorts.
Honestly, I don't see it reaching that level but if smart money wants to get short then the market makers may use a news event to eventually push price up towards that level so they can fill their shorts and line their pockets with some green stuff

Good luck, safe trading
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #103,171
  • Oct 16, 2017 12:51pm Oct 16, 2017 12:51pm
Quoting Leinadgnow
Exited at .80 region and waiting for the pullback. Taking a small long here at 0.7850 ++ region. Stop at 0.7830 near the ema 200 and fig 23.6% region on the 1hr. No real exit target for the next leg up. setting a trailing but gonna gun for .7929 and then watch how it reacts around there. Dollar feels like it is weakening and i wonder how long it will hold up for. Especially now that the fed hike has been priced in to around 90% implied probability for a hike in December, R:R is there to go contrary for a black swan event. Doubt Chinese are going...
Hi L
You are making lots of assumptions like 90% hike priced in....etc etc.
Aussie dollar is overvalued overall won't surprise me it dropping to 76 where it wants to be.Considering Yelens statements of possible aggressive hikes in 2018 its more likely AU dropping lower then going higher specially that interest rate deferential is no longer big factor as far as carry over trades.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #103,172
  • Oct 16, 2017 1:13pm Oct 16, 2017 1:13pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi L You are making lots of assumptions like 90% hike priced in....etc etc. Aussie dollar is overvalued overall won't surprise me it dropping to 76 where it wants to be.Considering Yelens statements of possible aggressive hikes in 2018 its more likely AU dropping lower then going higher specially that interest rate deferential is no longer big factor as far as carry over trades. regards
However, improvement in metals & China's economy boost this, often called, 'Resource Currency.'
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #103,173
  • Oct 16, 2017 10:05pm Oct 16, 2017 10:05pm
Next potential move.

4hr chart.
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  • #103,174
  • Oct 17, 2017 1:33am Oct 17, 2017 1:33am
where da support, tempted to try some longs near 7797
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #103,175
  • Oct 17, 2017 1:43am Oct 17, 2017 1:43am
Will all have to follow prices of iron ore and LNG, particularly the latter.

“The ongoing recovery in the LNG price is an emerging part of the story supporting AUD,”

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/a...xports-2017-10

I also read somewhere else that Australia will be the largest exporter of LNG surpassing that of middle eastern countries.
  • #103,176
  • Oct 18, 2017 7:38pm Oct 18, 2017 7:38pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi L You are making lots of assumptions like 90% hike priced in....etc etc. Aussie dollar is overvalued overall won't surprise me it dropping to 76 where it wants to be.Considering Yelens statements of possible aggressive hikes in 2018 its more likely AU dropping lower then going higher specially that interest rate deferential is no longer big factor as far as carry over trades. regards
The AUDUSD surprises to the upside again, despite the continued bleating by the RBA that they will not raise rates in lock-step with the rest of the developed economies and their "concern" regarding a strong AUD. The reality is this a currency war and the employment change is at odds with the ATO tax receipts, mining is not easily replaced with manufacturing.

They don't call shorting the AUDUSD the widow-maker trade for nothing.
  • #103,177
  • Oct 18, 2017 7:52pm Oct 18, 2017 7:52pm
Quoting Vitallica
{quote} The AUDUSD surprises to the upside again, despite the continued bleating by the RBA that they will not raise rates in lock-step with the rest of the developed economies and their "concern" regarding a strong AUD. The reality is this a currency war and the employment change is at odds with the ATO tax receipts, mining is not easily replaced with manufacturing. They don't call shorting the AUDUSD the widow-maker trade for nothing.
Sure employment is higher because the employers giving very small pay rises. This is what is important to RBA, if wages dont rise they cant raise rates because in doing so applys pressure to people to repay their ever expanding personal debt leading to catastrophe.

Employment is just for the goverment to place feather in their hat. Look closely people unemployed only fell by 2.2k. Who are these 19k who got jobs? Immigrants most likely. The immigration rate is as high as gdp, so if immigration stopped so would growth. This influx of people has also caused the housing "bubble". Basically the country will continue as is until something breaks. To bandaid the cracks that are appearing around above issues, the gov will continue the support of natural resoures exports such as coal, ore and now gas. Hence why Australia has an 'energy' crisis.

Ill be sure when the cracks finally open I'm well far away.
  • #103,178
  • Oct 18, 2017 8:25pm Oct 18, 2017 8:25pm
Quoting redalert
{quote} Sure employment is higher because the employers giving very small pay rises. This is what is important to RBA, if wages dont rise they cant raise rates because in doing so applys pressure to people to repay their ever expanding personal debt leading to catastrophe. Employment is just for the goverment to place feather in their hat. Look closely people unemployed only fell by 2.2k. Who are these 19k who got jobs? Immigrants most likely. The immigration rate is as high as gdp, so if immigration stopped so would growth. This influx of people...
I am in agreement with you, my background is as a process engineer in mining, since selling my engineering business in 2015 I have noticed the flux in my LinkedIn network, which is largely unseen but is a vast under employed or unemployed group. The mechanism to register as unemployed in Australia limits people with relatively high net worth or previous high incomes from becoming part of the statistic. Nonetheless their living expenses are met from low paying part time work, savings and asset disposal, the rise to a 200% household debt number is not an accidental - when the RBA say it is largely mortgage related, it is code for people stretching their debt with the classic second mortgage, based on property valuation.

Apologies if I appeared to be taking aim at Davit too, what I was alluding to was my annoyance that my "perfect short setup" had the stops taken out with the ferociousness of Muppets being executed with a 20mm anti aircraft gun.
  • #103,179
  • Oct 18, 2017 8:32pm Oct 18, 2017 8:32pm
Quoting redalert
Will all have to follow prices of iron ore and LNG, particularly the latter. “The ongoing recovery in the LNG price is an emerging part of the story supporting AUD,” https://www.businessinsider.com.au/a...xports-2017-10 I also read somewhere else that Australia will be the largest exporter of LNG surpassing that of middle eastern countries.
All levels of Govt are pushing for more CSG to be opened up, while Aust is having a domestic gas supply problem that the federal Govt has had to deal with.
As usual, the country is being used as a quarry with most of the profits going offshore.
When the supplies dry up it'll be screwed.
I will get my head around this, but always can be wrong
  • #103,180
  • Oct 18, 2017 9:01pm Oct 18, 2017 9:01pm
Quoting Vitallica
{quote} I am in agreement with you, my background is as a process engineer in mining, since selling my engineering business in 2015 I have noticed the flux in my LinkedIn network, which is largely unseen but is a vast under employed or unemployed group. The mechanism to register as unemployed in Australia limits people with relatively high net worth or previous high incomes from becoming part of the statistic. Nonetheless their living expenses are met from low paying part time work, savings and asset disposal, the rise to a 200% household...
re bolded - the unemployment figures are based on surveys, not actual unemployment claims though.

http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/meisubs.nsf/0/F69C835E876B088ECA2581BD000FCEB3/$File/62020_sep_2017.pdf
see heading 'sampling error'.

Your statement relates to high net worth individuals might / are prevented from claiming unemployment benefits but if ABS survey you there's nothing stoping you saying you are unemployed (even if you have a full time job).
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
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