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  • #1,621
  • Edited 5:05am Oct 13, 2017 4:47am | Edited 5:05am
Quoting Copernicus
but CP is a challenge to me because either he has cracked this puzzle as he states....or he has been blinded by a particular interpretation........or is a malevolent character with ill intent... I can only go on what CP has passed to us as clues...... because if he has cracked it....
Just a thought..... perhaps you might be limiting your options by thinking in terms of "cracking THE puzzle"? After all, there are as many potential quantitative solutions as there are successful quant traders. And they can't all be using CrucialPoint's approach, especially as he hasn't shared it publicly.

Another possibility is that there are a zillion different discretionary strategies and perspectives, that could be used as a potential starting point, many of whose efficacy might not be diluted too much by reducing them to a mechanical approximation.

My understanding is that, with some of the HFT trading that is performed, the algos are effectively hunting liquidity. Orderflow analysis is another possible basis for a quantitative system. And is perhaps arguably closer to the heartbeat of market operations than is quantum physics.
  • #1,622
  • Oct 13, 2017 6:03am Oct 13, 2017 6:03am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} He is both, he knows that to make someone to see the reality that person has to get out of the box, his comfort zone, and so he plays the role of the provoker. The problem is that as soon as you feel pushed out of your comfort zone you react bad and hard: this is your ego that doesn't wont to get out of the box, so your mind starts to lie to yourself and it does it so well that you even do not realize of that. In a field in which there is no right and no wrong but infinite possibilities, there also are infinite ways to look at things, infinite...
Strong Trader,

"Said that, CP has understood that the most efficient way to gain from market is not trying to make as many pips as you can; is to give the highest value you can at each pip, so he has gone out of the latter box either."

I understood it as entering at maximum Possible Leverage? Am i correct?

What is your take on such an approach vis a vis the risk?

Thanks
  • #1,623
  • Oct 13, 2017 6:19am Oct 13, 2017 6:19am
Quoting hanover
{quote} My understanding is that, with some of the HFT trading that is performed, the algos are effectively hunting liquidity. Orderflow analysis is another possible basis for a quantitative system. And is perhaps arguably closer to the heartbeat of market operations than is quantum physics.
It's a dirty job but someone's gotta do it!
  • #1,624
  • Oct 13, 2017 6:31am Oct 13, 2017 6:31am
Quoting kprsa
The strategy by itself singles out any card which statistically dominates.
My last word on the topic of the buying above the line vs. the random number generator, I promise.
I was positively surprised by my success in this game and started looking at this more carefully. I think this has to do with the properties of the multinomial distribution, which describes the game. It turns out that the statistical domination of a single card in this game is very probable, for example the probability that a card (out of four) occurs more or equal than eight times in 24 draws is 80%(!)
Cheers,
k

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  • #1,625
  • Oct 13, 2017 6:40am Oct 13, 2017 6:40am
I will give a secret to you all, and its not even 95% or 80% or whatever, ITS A SURE 100% ALWAYS !!!

A very wiseman once said:

"On a renko chart, Close will be above or below Open 100% OF THE TIMES!!!!"

There you go , be millionaires !
  • #1,626
  • Edited Oct 14, 2017 1:59am Oct 13, 2017 7:47am | Edited Oct 14, 2017 1:59am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Just a thought..... perhaps you might be limiting your options by thinking in terms of "cracking THE puzzle"? After all, there are as many potential quantitative solutions as there are successful quant traders. And they can't all be using CrucialPoint's approach, especially as he hasn't shared it publicly. Another possibility is that there are a zillion different discretionary strategies and perspectives, that could be used as a potential starting point, many of whose efficacy might not be diluted too much by reducing them to a mechanical...
No...that won't happen (limiting my options). You would know by now that my passion is the journey....just as probably yours is......with the trimmings of trading success a simple symptom along the way. If there was a solution put in front of my face, it would be depression that faced you.... not euphoria. I am talking about a journey that involves stitching together different perspectives as discussed in my earlier post where efficiencies improve and parsimony is achieved and ultimately you arrive at a point far departed from your origin but connected to it. No hand waving mystical Zen....but simply the result of forensic process and application....and the journey can continue on from there...but I will be pushing up the daisies by then.

It's about better models rather than an idealised 'Holy Grail'.....though it is hard to extract that fine point in CP's posts...but his journey while liberally embellished with seminal events that sculpted the deity...is probably what we all go though but in less descriptive terms. Hell....apparently according to CP I am in a state of permanent orgasm when talking science....that might well be an embellishment as well....but hey...don't let me interfere with a good yarn.

It is not re-writing the book that I am after. if you are of the opinion that there is a dose of 'crackpot fever' going around in 'cracking the puzzle'....though I understand it might be interpreted that way. I think it was your post that resolved that I was going on a mission to 'crack it'.....and here I was simply trying to dig deeper. You almost convinced me to start scribbling formulas furiously all over my office wall and start mumbling to myself.../tic

Most major upheavals occur through progressive improvement on a solid foundation......not through shock and awe and a total rewrite but through progressive creative process and problem solving......from balloons to aeroplanes to rocketry......from slide rules to calculators to computers.....from hypertext to transfer protocols to URL's to the world wide web.....from Newtonian Mechanics as a special condition of a broader treatment of general relativity......etc.etc.

Perhaps we just leave quantum physics out of it....it was raised to simply put a cap on any 'woo' thoughts that might emerge when clearly the financial markets are binary and not a quantum superposition.....complex but not indeterminate.....intractable but not impossible.

Try solving a simple 3 body problem under Newtonian gravity and you will see where I am going with this. But give me a market with 3 participants and we can solve the riddle far easier. There is a big difference between true randomness and simple complexity. One being a theoretical concept while the other being a physical reality.
  • #1,627
  • Oct 13, 2017 7:48am Oct 13, 2017 7:48am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Strong Trader, "Said that, CP has understood that the most efficient way to gain from market is not trying to make as many pips as you can; is to give the highest value you can at each pip, so he has gone out of the latter box either." I understood it as entering at maximum Possible Leverage? Am i correct? What is your take on such an approach vis a vis the risk? Thanks
Don't let your mind to over complicate: pip value, is simple as that.
  • #1,628
  • Oct 13, 2017 7:53am Oct 13, 2017 7:53am
Why are people so shy about revealing everything about their profitable trading stategies?

1: They are lying about it, so giving up all the rules would mean people could test the validity of the system for themselves. Or

2: They don't want to give away their secret edge,because if everybody started trading it the edge would lose its power.

As for the second point, you could give most people an "edge" as we call it and they probably wouldn't test the validity of that "edge" even it was wrapped in shiny paper tied with a bow.
  • #1,629
  • Oct 13, 2017 8:23am Oct 13, 2017 8:23am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} Don't let your mind to over complicate: pip value, is simple as that.
Thanks
  • #1,630
  • Oct 13, 2017 8:46am Oct 13, 2017 8:46am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Just a thought..... perhaps you might be limiting your options by thinking in terms of "cracking THE puzzle"? After all, there are as many potential quantitative solutions as there are successful quant traders. And they can't all be using CrucialPoint's approach, especially as he hasn't shared it publicly. Another possibility is that there are a zillion different discretionary strategies and perspectives, that could be used as a potential starting point, many of whose efficacy might not be diluted too much by reducing them to a mechanical...
Hanover hit the nail on the head, he hasn't cracked THE puzzle, just has figured out an edge like many traders. If you cracked THE puzzle would you be scalping a pip or two at a time, would you be taking losses? No, those results are just that of an edge. Out of a 20 pip swing you don't take 3-5 pips if you've cracked the puzzle, you take 18-19 pips, the former is just an edge.

I'm not saying he isn't profitable, I believe he is because his edge lines up with a few other successful traders I know. The rest is just flare. He was in to magic tricks, a combo of mystery and dramatic effects, hence the way posts are made. They're entertaining but at the heart are mostly basics that most overlook. I'm sure most of us read over these edges in the first couple lessons of BabyPips.com school and then moved along.
  • #1,631
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:29am Oct 13, 2017 9:29am
Quoting DemoForever
Why are people so shy about revealing everything about their profitable trading stategies? 1: They are lying about it, so giving up all the rules would mean people could test the validity of the system for themselves. Or 2: They don't want to give away their secret edge,because if everybody started trading it the edge would lose its power. As for the second point, you could give most people an "edge" as we call it and they probably wouldn't test the validity of that "edge" even it was wrapped in shiny paper tied with a bow.
The second one is part of the truth:
could I even tell you everything here and now you won't understand because correct mindset is mandatory and the majority do not have mindset.
Last but not least each one has passed through the process to acquire the right mindset and then uncovered the whole stuff, very well knows how hard it has been, how many hours of work have been spent.
On the other side there are a lot of pretenders that are only interested in making a mount of money as soon as possible, without having a real interest on what they are doing but money: those people do not even understand the value of all the work that has been done to reach the goal, they pretend everything willing to give nothing.
Said that, give me even only one good reason should an expert trader make such a kind of gift publicly.

Would you be able to open this door, you would be able to change your life: such a kind of a door won't ever get opened to you unless you prove to deserve it and to have the maturity to face with such a change.

From this view I understand why CP is not willing to teach to anyone; nonetheless I do not agree with him because mindfulness is what is need people to get better: knowing yourself, knowing how your mind works does help to understand the truth about who you really are, who we all are, and this will lead to a radical change about your scale of values, your behavior in human relationships, your relationship with all your life.
Only if you have a honest, peaceful and unselfish intent you will be able to find the key that will open this door, so there is a sort of natural protection against bad people. There might be ecceptions but none of them will be a long lasting one.
I've passed through all the steps, it took me years but everything began to change as soon as I began to change: so everything has been correlated to my personal maturing process.
You all have to understand once for ever that this door is opened to everyone but everyone has to pay his price, which is different for each person.

So I think that is a good thing to help people to open this door, but it is a moral duty to be very selective.
  • #1,632
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:37am Oct 13, 2017 9:37am
Quoting swTrue
{quote}If you cracked THE puzzle would you be scalping a pip or two at a time, would you be taking losses? No, those results are just that of an edge. Out of a 20 pip swing you don't take 3-5 pips if you've cracked the puzzle, you take 18-19 pips, the former is just an edge.
if i cracked the puzzle, i take whatever the edge is giving to me .1 sure pip out of a 20 pips move: fine. you cant dictate how you want that edge to be " oh i got to find an edge that gets me 18-19 pips out of a 20 pip move , if not then thats not an edge". It doesnt matter wher it be trend trading, reversal to the mean, 1min scalp, monthly swing, binary etc as long as its a true edge i dont care, im taking whatever its going to give me.

Quoting swTrue
{quote}I'm sure most of us read over these edges in the first couple lessons of BabyPips.com school and then moved along.
at babypips ?>> which edges there are you talking about or maybe i didnt get what you said correctly.
  • #1,633
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:45am Oct 13, 2017 9:45am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} The second one is part of the truth: could I even tell you everything here and now you won't understand because correct mindset is mandatory and the majority do not have mindset. Last but not least each one has passed through the process to acquire the right mindset and then uncovered the whole stuff, very well knows how hard it has been, how many hours of work have been spent. On the other side there are a lot of pretenders that are only interested in making a mount of money as soon as possible, without having a real interest on what they...
Honestly couldn't have put it better myself, hats off to you....

Another key, trading is a skill, it take time to master!! Most Pro's at anything, need to invest a lot of time, some studies show 10.000 hours of hard work to reach this level, so I believe it has to be a passion not just for the financial goals.
  • #1,634
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:48am Oct 13, 2017 9:48am
Taking a Stab at this ....

Yeah, I did a headline in CP's style hoping to catch his attention. I am not a fool. I am not going to miss out on an opportunity to ask a question of an indirect mentor.... hehe

Crucial Point, that version of "Coffee Talks" was a good read. I have been stalking your posts for a couple of years now, so it was good to see where you are coming from.

I have a lot of those qualities and tackled much of the same in life like you did, by diving in and learning all I could about the subject at hand, except the difference is that I don't come from a successful family in the same sense. My up bringing was quite negative in fact, so I spent many years where I learned to deal with, fought and combated a lot of it to become a healthy, positive, successful person in school and my previous career. I did a complete 180 degree turn in life, emotions, responsibilities, beliefs and attitude.

Right now, in my trading, I feel I am literally at the turning point, literally the "Crucial Point" :-) and I have found that now I am combating some new things. I can see where I have some road blocks in regard to reaching the next level.

With that being said, what book, video, or website would you recommend on the psychology aspects, and do you have another recommendation of read/video for the dimensional aspects of trading? (For anyone feeling the need to chime in, I'm not looking for Mark Douglas'y' type of stuff.)

Thanks for your time CP, and I will continue thanking you in spirit!
Peace


Quoting strongtrader
Whoever will read this thread will get only one confirmation: EVERYTHING IS PERFECT AS IT IS: there must be the smart as well as the monkey and the moron, there must be the clever and skilled man building his future with work and hard commitment as well as the beggar asking for alms because he is the first one to not believe on himself, there must be the good masterly man as well as the claimer and the pretender who yells to hide how little he is. Everyone will get from his life what he wants to get, everyone is creating his destiny of which he...
Well said, and so simple, but so deep. Anyone trying to just sort things out, should have a light go off by reading that. It took me quite a while to filter things out.
  • #1,635
  • Oct 13, 2017 10:05am Oct 13, 2017 10:05am
Quoting metta87
{quote} if i cracked the puzzle, i take whatever the edge is giving to me .1 sure pip out of a 20 pips move: fine. you cant dictate how you want that edge to be " oh i got to find an edge that gets me 18-19 pips out of a 20 pip move , if not then thats not an edge". It doesnt matter wher it be trend trading, reversal to the mean, 1min scalp, monthly swing, binary etc as long as its a true edge i dont care, im taking whatever its going to give me. {quote} at babypips ?>> which edges there are you talking about or maybe i didnt get what you said correctly....
I just scanned babypips and didn't see anything on market structure...believe it or not I didn't see anything on trend. Checkout this video, I stumbled across a thread a month or so ago and saw this, not at all new to me but back when it was it was a major turning point. He has a thread here, I'm not on board with all of it but because it's built around this I can tell you it's a sufficient edge.

Inserted Video
  • #1,636
  • Oct 13, 2017 10:17am Oct 13, 2017 10:17am
Quoting swTrue
{quote} I just scanned babypips and didn't see anything on market structure...believe it or not I didn't see anything on trend. Checkout this video, I stumbled across a thread a month or so ago and saw this, not at all new to me but back when it was it was a major turning point. He has a thread here, I'm not on board with all of it but because it's built around this I can tell you it's a sufficient edge. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lH3h8oJ5K9k
i think i know the guy, but i fail to see where the edge lies in what he does. Same old technical analysis that been around for a long time, now if he happens to be profitable then i confess to be wrong.
  • #1,637
  • Oct 13, 2017 10:22am Oct 13, 2017 10:22am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Agree and I have said this over and over again.... just my perspective. Even if you have found an edge, even if you are long term profitable, one has to gauge if this journey is worthwhile ! 7 years of painstaking frustrating journey to discover an edge and to develop a robust strategy that will last till the end of time.... and then once you have discovered, you are slogging your ass every day starring at charts day in and day out for make a few pips, affecting your health, replacing screen time with time you could be spending with your...
A lot of this is right on point, well said. You need to sit back, relax, enjoy the process and the journey...in short you just need to love to trade. I started about 10 years ago, traded hard for 5 years, almost all of it was pointless like most of the systems and threads here. I took a three year break to focus on my day job, I always knew I'd be back...I just love trading, I love charts. That long break was the best thing that ever happened, I excelled in my career and married a gem of a women. When I came back I started just staring at naked charts, asking myself the right questions. It's not just questions, but the right ones.

I'm with you, freedom is the primary goal and beyond that wealth to have the ability to bless others. Don't let others get you down on your account/trade size, that's just their bitterness against the market and others success where they failed. But I would say not to try and grow a 5K account to a 6 figure account, I would recommend trading small, getting comfortable and have a decent size account building from savings/side job etc. The stress of trying to double an account over and over and over just to finally do this full time will take it's toll.
  • #1,638
  • Oct 13, 2017 10:28am Oct 13, 2017 10:28am
Quoting josh11
{quote} Honestly couldn't have put it better myself, hats off to you.... Another key, trading is a skill, it take time to master!! Most Pro's at anything, need to invest a lot of time, some studies show 10.000 hours of hard work to reach this level, so I believe it has to be a passion not just for the financial goals.
i never understood how trading was about skills, yeah you wanna be a good soccer player, for sure if you put 10.000 hours into it you ll get better NO DOUBT. but trading....when you start you are not a bad trader because you lack skill, you are because you lack an edge. And here the amount of time you put into it wont make any difference if after 10k-1M hours you still dont have any edge. For sure you ll know a lot of stuff that dont work, many pitfalls to avoid but thats about it.
  • #1,639
  • Oct 13, 2017 10:29am Oct 13, 2017 10:29am
Quoting JohnMoreno
With that being said, what book, video, or website would you recommend on the psychology aspects?
I thought you stalk my posts?
Did you missed this one...
There's a reading list at the bottom of this post.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...59#post6960159
  • #1,640
  • Oct 13, 2017 10:39am Oct 13, 2017 10:39am
Quoting metta87
{quote} i think i know the guy, but i fail to see where the edge lies in what he does. Same old technical analysis that been around for a long time, now if he happens to be profitable then i confess to be wrong.
And that is why you fail to see, you brush past the basics...as I did at one time.

This should blow your mind, if you can't see it take some time off and come back. I used a chart CP just posted because some seem infatuated, but like I said, it's all simple, basic stuff. I take the same trades on a longer time frame. Do you see it?
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