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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #1,601
  • Oct 12, 2017 3:34pm Oct 12, 2017 3:34pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks CP. Do you Scale into your position - Agree/Disagree? Do you Scale out of your position - Agree/Disagree? Just trying to rule out any influence of MM or RR or TM into your overall edge and profitability. Regarding ISP and backup power etc.... I manage mission-critical systems with $100K penalty every 10 mins of outage for some of our clients so I am aware of all that jazz. My reference was in relation to your scalping strategy when seconds could wipe out years of profits if you are not careful.
I only have 700 posts read them all.
You'll get the gist on my trading.

Worst case scenario it will wipe 4M, which I still have another 4M still with the broker.
So far it hasn't happened to me in 17 years of trading.
  • #1,602
  • Oct 12, 2017 3:50pm Oct 12, 2017 3:50pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} Here you go VEEFX {image} You want a sneak peek? {image} {image} {image} {image}
CP,

The last chart you posted said buyers or sellers could have made money, agreed, but those who favored the longs made easier money. As I said earlier I trade similarly, simple market structure for the most part, 70-80% hit rate. I explored a filter option a while back based on price, something that would give me an overall direction bias. It was a filter based on price, a member here that's no longer around spoke a good bit about it years back. A filter is no good if it cuts off 50% losers, doesn't advance your edge and I didn't have data to support using this filter so didn't pursue it further. I believe you use the same filter as your "mostly buy" "mostly sell" chart notations show. So I guess my question is did you find hard data showing this increased your edge?
  • #1,603
  • Oct 12, 2017 4:04pm Oct 12, 2017 4:04pm
Quoting swTrue
{quote} CP, The last chart you posted said buyers or sellers could have made money, agreed, but those who favored the longs made easier money. As I said earlier I trade similarly, simple market structure for the most part, 70-80% hit rate. I explored a filter option a while back based on price, something that would give me an overall direction bias. It was a filter based on price, a member here that's no longer around spoke a good bit about it years back. A filter is no good if it cuts off 50% losers, doesn't advance your edge and I didn't have...
very nice question.. my 2 cent's a balanced view works better..
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #1,604
  • Oct 12, 2017 4:19pm Oct 12, 2017 4:19pm
Quoting swTrue
{quote} CP, The last chart you posted said buyers or sellers could have made money, agreed, but those who favored the longs made easier money. As I said earlier I trade similarly, simple market structure for the most part, 70-80% hit rate. I explored a filter option a while back based on price, something that would give me an overall direction bias. It was a filter based on price, a member here that's no longer around spoke a good bit about it years back. A filter is no good if it cuts off 50% losers, doesn't advance your edge and I didn't have...
Quoting CrucialPoint
A bullish candle is biased to the upside. A bearish candle is biased to the downside. There are more breakout to the upside than the downside on a bullish candle. There are bigger movement on the upside than the downside on a bullish candle. There are more tick points to the upside than the downside on a bullish candle. There are more fakeout and reversal on the downside on a bullish. You don't need to know the future candle and try to predict the next candle >>> These statistical facts will occur as long as price remains above the open in a bullish...
Quoting CrucialPoint
Following the trend offers greater safety, lower risk and higher returns.
Answer: Yes

I'm only in it if it increases my edge and make me money.

Its too bad people don't read my posts
  • #1,605
  • Oct 12, 2017 5:24pm Oct 12, 2017 5:24pm
you have to hand it to CP he really got everyone worked up and talking.
“Every great magic trick consists of three parts or acts. The first part is called "The Pledge". The magician shows you something ordinary: a deck of cards, a bird or a man. He shows you this object. Perhaps he asks you to inspect it to see if it is indeed real, unaltered, normal. But of course... it probably isn't. The second act is called "The Turn". The magician takes the ordinary something and makes it do something extraordinary. Now you're looking for the secret... but you won't find it because of course you're not really looking. You don't really want to know. You want to be fooled. But you wouldn't clap yet. Because making something disappear isn't enough; you have to bring it back. That's why every magic trick has a third act, the hardest part, the part we call "The Prestige".”
  • #1,606
  • Edited 7:11pm Oct 12, 2017 6:21pm | Edited 7:11pm
The more you think you know the more you realise that you don't know

I see countless posts on this forum where a particular perspective from a contributor makes you severely question your own modus operandi. It is very easy to throw out that opinion as it doesn't fit your current mindset....but it is harder to perhaps accept that this is a legitimate viewpoint seen from another perspective.

The thing about complex systems and complexity in general is that it allows for a plurality of different definitions, each applicable in their own right but defined by that particular world view. You particularly find this in the field of theoretical physics where digging into complexity is the main game.

The reason there can be so many different interpretations when digging into complexity can be attributed to symmetry order. What does symmetry have to do with it?....Well each of us interpret a particular reflection of an underlying symmetry in a complex system as this is allowed for by virtue of the dynamic, linear and non-linear inter-relationships that exist in a complex system....in fact it is a mandatory requirement for complex systems in terms of defining them as complex as opposed to simple.

The way symmetry works is that each observer carries with their viewpoint a shard of the underlying order. It is only by coalescing the shards, that the underlying system order is exposed.

What suggests that a journey to attempt to crack the puzzle is not fruitless is that the roadblocks we are facing on this forum in our journey of discovery is very similar to the roadblocks that have disrupted the journey in the scientific discovery of our physical universe.....but it took some bright spark to identify a way to unite the array of potential interpretations into an underlying symmetry order where all observers would agree on the interpretation. It then took a great mathematician (Emmy Noether) to do the hard yards and apply what the physics was telling us into the beautiful equations of symmetry that led to conservation laws arising from these underlying symmetries. The symmetry of spatial translation led to the conservation of momentum, the symmetry of time translation led to the conservation of energy etc.

This 'simplification' or more precisely uniting these different worldviews through unification is in fact extremely hard to achieve as you need to step well outside your view of the world to achieve this. It is only seen as simple after the fact in that only then when the shackles have been stripped away regarding your world view that you then say....well of course....how could it have been anything other....it was just hidden in plain sight all the time.

All of us are on this journey...I hope. I see different vantages being applied from the likes of Pipeasy, Hanover, and all you guys....but CP is a challenge to me because either he has cracked this puzzle as he states....or he has been blinded by a particular interpretation........or is a malevolent character with ill intent... I can only go on what CP has passed to us as clues...... because if he has cracked it....then why would you so openly share the solution?....well actually that is a question in itself as the joy in cracking the puzzle would actually want me to share the solution with all and sundry.....however for those that wish to covet their secrets...then whatever floats the boat.

But I think what we might find as discussed in this post is that if we are prepared to get outside our comfort zone a little you are going to get to see a much greater viewpoint.
  • #1,607
  • Oct 12, 2017 6:31pm Oct 12, 2017 6:31pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} {quote} {quote} Answer: Yes I'm only in it if it increases my edge and make me money. Its too bad people don't read my posts
Easy now brother, I read your post, no need to get all salty on me.

Peter Crown posted a good bit about only buying if the market is above the open or selling of the market is below the open. It apprears you do that in general as well. He didn’t have hard data, it was just an “expected” edge. You seemed more statistically sound so I was just curious if you had any hard data on it.
  • #1,608
  • Oct 12, 2017 7:26pm Oct 12, 2017 7:26pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
Trading multiple pairs are very inefficient.
and you'r telling people that you trade for a living
when kovner made 1000% year after year trading different instrumesnt he was inefficent? lol
Price itself it's an indicator
  • #1,609
  • Oct 12, 2017 7:39pm Oct 12, 2017 7:39pm
Quoting m3rlin
{quote} and you'r telling people that you trade for a living when kovner made 1000% year after year trading different instrumesnt he was inefficent? lol
I certainly see this with what I do. There is definitely inefficiencies in the methods of diversification I use which I am seeking to eliminate (a work in progress)....but the results are far better than I can achieve otherwise...however my take on CP's reference is that he is very aware of this inefficiency in the process I adopt...... and he is putting forward the 'carrot' to say there are other ways to skin the cat 'more efficiently'. He is either incredibly well versed in this game....or a master at exploiting the buttons that push our psychology...not sure which at the moment. There is perhaps a bit of 'cold reading' going on here which keeps me on 'high alert' :-)
  • #1,610
  • Oct 12, 2017 8:11pm Oct 12, 2017 8:11pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} I certainly see this with what I do. There is definitely inefficiencies in the methods of diversification I use which I am seeking to eliminate (a work in progress)....but the results are far better than I can achieve otherwise...however my take on CP's reference is that he is very aware of this inefficiency in the process I adopt...... and he is putting forward the 'carrot' to say there are other ways to skin the cat 'more efficiently'. He is either incredibly well versed in this game....or a master at exploiting the buttons that push our...
don't think to much at cp, he is zero
successful peoples don't play games with peoples, if they want so say something to help someone they just say it.
Price itself it's an indicator
  • #1,611
  • Edited 11:09pm Oct 12, 2017 8:15pm | Edited 11:09pm
Quoting m3rlin
{quote} don't think to much at cp, he is zero successful peoples don't play games with peoples, if they want so say something to help someone they just say it.
Yeah...thats how i view it as well...but different horses for different courses I s'pose. I can't read my dog....let alone what buzzes through a human brain :-)
  • #1,612
  • Oct 12, 2017 8:19pm Oct 12, 2017 8:19pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} I certainly see this with what I do. There is definitely inefficiencies in the methods of diversification I use which I am seeking to eliminate (a work in progress)....but the results are far better than I can achieve otherwise...however my take on CP's reference is that he is very aware of this inefficiency in the process I adopt...... and he is putting forward the 'carrot' to say there are other ways to skin the cat 'more efficiently'. He is either incredibly well versed in this game....or a master at exploiting the buttons that push our...
Week P/L +50+% on $8M from under 50pips a day tells a lot.
  • #1,613
  • Oct 13, 2017 12:35am Oct 13, 2017 12:35am
Bring it back to basics friends, trading isn't hard, in fact it is very simple, but people don't believe in simple, they think if a system is going to work it has to be complicated, tear away all the bullshit and get back to basics and get off the merry-go-round ,all the best ,GW.
IMPROVISE ADAPT OVERCOME
  • #1,614
  • Oct 13, 2017 12:41am Oct 13, 2017 12:41am
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} Here you go VEEFX {image} You want a sneak peek? {image} {image} {image} {image}
Looks like CP is a normal real-trading doer and not a fantasy game trader. He does not have any holygrail. Any doer know that there is no holy grail as such. It's sheer hard work- sticking to maximum two symbols two systems and putting maximum faith in his money and risk management skills.

Yet he loves to build around himself an aura as part of his ego-trip, which he is entitled to.

He uses the forum for building up his phantom personality (giving up an opportunity to build a guru brand) and does share some valuable insights which fascinates a treasure hunter (carrying no weapons).

FF rarely provides movies like CP runs and I want to thank him for it.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #1,615
  • Edited 3:02am Oct 13, 2017 12:55am | Edited 3:02am
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} Here you go VEEFX {image} You want a sneak peek? {image} {image} {image} {image}
It was nice to see more human sides of you recently with those charts and your biography. To be honest I kind of though of you as a robot )
The truth is hidden from you
  • #1,616
  • Oct 13, 2017 1:41am Oct 13, 2017 1:41am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} I certainly see this with what I do. There is definitely inefficiencies in the methods of diversification I use which I am seeking to eliminate (a work in progress)....but the results are far better than I can achieve otherwise...however my take on CP's reference is that he is very aware of this inefficiency in the process I adopt...... and he is putting forward the 'carrot' to say there are other ways to skin the cat 'more efficiently'. He is either incredibly well versed in this game....or a master at exploiting the buttons that push our...
He is both, he knows that to make someone to see the reality that person has to get out of the box, his comfort zone, and so he plays the role of the provoker.
The problem is that as soon as you feel pushed out of your comfort zone you react bad and hard: this is your ego that doesn't wont to get out of the box, so your mind starts to lie to yourself and it does it so well that you even do not realize of that.
In a field in which there is no right and no wrong but infinite possibilities, there also are infinite ways to look at things, infinite strategies and methods to extract your advantage from the system you are looking at: this is the reason you can load on your chart whatever shit you like and it seems to work good; it does indeed. The only reason why then it doesn't work as soon as you put it in practice is your mind that is llying to you.
Said that, CP has understood that the most efficient way to gain from market is not trying to make as many pips as you can; is to give the highest value you can at each pip, so he has gone out of the latter box either.
From here the only matter is to find what better fits your psychology and follow it.
  • #1,617
  • Oct 13, 2017 1:59am Oct 13, 2017 1:59am
Quoting kprsa
my personal record
Buying above the line vs. the random number generator, new record, 14/24, probability of event 0.04%; total number of games played <30.
Cheers,
k

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  • #1,618
  • Oct 13, 2017 3:07am Oct 13, 2017 3:07am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} CP - I have an interesting question for you. In some of your posts, you have mentioned... "Markets never Change... Never have and never will" I tend to agree but to me. it more like "Market Behavior will never change". Question: How did you 'quantify' this conceptually (in more practical/implementation terms) during your journey in early years before you found your edge? And more importantly, now that you have discovered this edge or secret (outside of the moral/philosophical reasons and/or whoever is preventing you from sharing this edge/secret...
Try this:

Quoting CrucialPoint
I'm Dropping the Bomb Pick a number: 1 year 5 years 10 years 15 years 20 years 25 years 50 years 100 years 500 years 1000 years Some trader told me that 1 year back-testing data is not enough... the more the better, he says. I asked him, "How about 5 years of data?" He replied, "Well, 10 years is good." I added, "How about 20 years instead?." "Even better, it will be good if we have 100 years of data." he exclaimed. I then replied, "Fuck it. Let's go for 1000 years of data instead." He rolled his eyes, shook his head, turned and walked away....
  • #1,619
  • Oct 13, 2017 3:53am Oct 13, 2017 3:53am
Quoting josh11
{quote} Try this: {quote}
Exactly, I was about to mention this post
  • #1,620
  • Oct 13, 2017 4:32am Oct 13, 2017 4:32am
Quoting skyway
{quote} Week P/L +50+% on $8M from under 50pips a day tells a lot.
I don't understand how it's possible if one has only 1:2 leverage (50% margin)
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
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