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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #1,401
  • Edited 8:44am Oct 10, 2017 8:22am | Edited 8:44am
Just for fun, On U/J, pay particular attention to the 112.12 - 112.22 area, if it gets there. Could be interesting with the NY open around the corner!! Might be a good opportunity to the upside!! One more pop down could make for a very enjoyable day, and structure would still be intact! OR NOT, lol
  • #1,402
  • Oct 10, 2017 9:15am Oct 10, 2017 9:15am
Quoting skyway
{quote} I agree to a degree. Fear and greed constantly affects the trader from day1 in all aspect of our trading. In most cases, it's about bad analysis and under-intellectualised trading approach.
Of course, but the point of my post was a different one. Did you read the linked article?
  • #1,403
  • Oct 10, 2017 9:31am Oct 10, 2017 9:31am
unfortunately, i have to wait for the hourly close to determine my fate. I've seen a lot of freaky things occur before the bar actually closes. i just have to wait and see...
  • #1,404
  • Edited 10:11am Oct 10, 2017 9:53am | Edited 10:11am
Quoting nealpek
unfortunately, i have to wait for the hourly close to determine my fate. I've seen a lot of freaky things occur before the bar actually closes. i just have to wait and see...
Very interesting outlook nealpek. I enjoy your posts alot. Defo keep the tidbits coming about where to find the maximum pain for trader positioning on the chart. It is the one and only way to catch a move in your favour. No matter what technical stuff any trader has stuck on their screens, if your able to catch a direction positive to your entry that means you entered somewhere that others are having to pay up and bail out or somewhere that there was aggressive traders with interest in the same zone as you. Regardless of the individuals rationale on entering, under the hood of the market that is what took place to get you from point A to B
  • #1,405
  • Oct 10, 2017 10:07am Oct 10, 2017 10:07am
Quoting nealpek
unfortunately, i have to wait for the hourly close to determine my fate. I've seen a lot of freaky things occur before the bar actually closes. i just have to wait and see...
do you feel this analysis of the situation around the london open is correct?

i took a trade based off this in my experiment/penny account and it turned out good. havent been able to watch the market for the rest of the day which is a bummer
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  • #1,406
  • Oct 10, 2017 10:17am Oct 10, 2017 10:17am
Pip, will get back to you, just focusing on my trade...
  • #1,407
  • Oct 10, 2017 10:59am Oct 10, 2017 10:59am
Quoting medici
{quote} Of course, but the point of my post was a different one. Did you read the linked article?
I did. It's not too different from most broad brush conclusions about bad analysis and under-intellectualised trading approach that's the core of the problem. Fix it there'll be no place for illusions, fear and greed.
  • #1,408
  • Oct 10, 2017 11:26am Oct 10, 2017 11:26am
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} There will be no Mayweather without his dad and uncle to train him. There will be no Steve Job without Steve Wozniak There will be no Michael Jordan without Phil Jackson Despite having a success-mindset, you won't reach your potential without the people (or the environment) that can leverage your potential. If Randomness and chaos didn't provide you with the right environment, your success-mindset will dry up against the wind. You will be a totally different person if you didn't meet me.
And there would be no Cp today without whom or what?
Who leveraged your potential? ( this is not a BS question).
The biggest risk is not taking a risk.
  • #1,409
  • Oct 10, 2017 11:33am Oct 10, 2017 11:33am
Quoting nealpek
Pip, I don't trade volume, as again, I find I'm not able to determine its signals with any certainty. To me, it's just another indicator created and generously provided by our brokers to "help" us make better trade decisions, lol. I won't discuss any type of indicator, as by now, I'm pretty sure you know my feelings about them. I'm a simple man and like to keep things simple. In my opinion, to find any edge with volume, if one exists, you should be able to trade it without seeing price. If you can, you found an edge! Your analysis has volume all...
thanks for the response, although im a tad confused. going back over your posts theres many where you reference volume.

this was what i was semi-emulating with that small experiment trade after the big swing down at the london open. it wasnt so much the volume itself i was paying attention to or taking a cue off, but the levels on the chart that showed unusually large or little volume and then price's subsequent reaction when it came back to those levels.

similar to the post you have where you identified a bar in a bear leg that had unusually low volume, then you saw price respecting this region on a retest and said somethings fishy, which to my understand could be explained as the levels of the candle you referenced had very little trading volume meaning the prices were rejected by traders and when it came back for a second look, it continued to behave in the same rejecting fashion
  • #1,410
  • Oct 10, 2017 11:49am Oct 10, 2017 11:49am
Pip, now I see where you are coming from! Quite a while back, I was using volume in my trading, and as I mentioned in the previous post, sometimes it worked, other times not. I just couldn't trade it with the certainty I wanted. I do know of others who trade volume quite successfully, it just wasn't a good fit for a lazy simpleton like myself. So I literally just continued to stare at my screens trying to find a proxy for volume, that could give me good signals without the headache of constantly analyzing vol numbers on different time frames. Volume can be a weapon in the right hands, unfortunately I wasn't getting the consistency I was looking for.
  • #1,411
  • Oct 10, 2017 11:58am Oct 10, 2017 11:58am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} How would you tackle a lucrative yet dangerous market like this?
yeah skyway how would you do it ??? im interested to know, i guess you trade in the direction of the trend in lower timeframes.. i could be wrong

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how would you trade those type of moves ?
  • #1,412
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:48pm Oct 10, 2017 12:48pm
Quoting nealpek
Pip, now I see where you are coming from! Quite a while back, I was using volume in my trading, and as I mentioned in the previous post, sometimes it worked, other times not. I just couldn't trade it with the certainty I wanted. I do know of others who trade volume quite successfully, it just wasn't a good fit for a lazy simpleton like myself. So I literally just continued to stare at my screens trying to find a proxy for volume, that could give me good signals without the headache of constantly analyzing vol numbers on different time frames. Volume...
Ah fair enough thats a bummer lol!

Care to share some of your current ideology? Without giving away the sauce so to speak
  • #1,413
  • Oct 10, 2017 1:02pm Oct 10, 2017 1:02pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Calculus knows more about trading spikes on short timeframes than anyone I know. The shoutouts on his profile are worth the read. If you ask me, it's a recipe for ulcer up your butt trading this style every freaking day.
he got plenty of shouts tho, can you please summarize a little how he does trade those spikes ?
  • #1,414
  • Edited 3:33pm Oct 10, 2017 1:58pm | Edited 3:33pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Hi V You might be making some fatal flaws in your assumptions mate regarding the use of fixed fractional position sizing using volatility measures. While we have very understandable laws of the universe, in the markets few such laws exist even the good ol' Law of Supply and Demand. Unfortunately we need to be very careful about the assumptions we adopt for different types of strategies.....especially portfolio management. The use of volatility adjusted fixed fractional position sizing may not be as sexy as other position sizing techniques...
Great explanation of how diversification works in a portfolio. As you know, this whole thing boils down to uncorrelated strategies. And the problem is estimating correlations from historical return is not very good as correlations are not stable (specially at lower time frames). But yes this is the great thing about MPT that the whole industry is based on (mututal fund, index fund etc).

The key is to be able to get good estimate of the correlation (that you will experience in future). once you have that, calculating weights to build efficient frontier is easy..
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #1,415
  • Oct 10, 2017 2:34pm Oct 10, 2017 2:34pm
Quoting nealpek
Markets are all about support and resistance, as we've all been told. Can anyone post any piece of any chart you wish and point out where support or resistance is?
?
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  • #1,416
  • Oct 10, 2017 2:48pm Oct 10, 2017 2:48pm
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Good question. I think the safest entries would be above open and MA or below open and MA. However, the exit is another question ... Maybe we could use another (shorter period) MA?!
I think, that we need to flip positions, above open buy, when price gets below open flip to sell position. I tested this idea, but got a lot of flips in range condition, so there would be a lot of costs because of spread.
CP said that system must be dynamic. Maybe it is possible to think money(trades) management, which opens basket trades and flipping trades in direction of current candle.
  • #1,417
  • Oct 10, 2017 2:52pm Oct 10, 2017 2:52pm
Quoting nealpek
I knew it would be you,pip,lol! I say that If we are looking at the move between 1.3198 and 1.3176, When price comes back down to the 1.3198, level, that is not support and I would never place a trade there. Support and resistance cannot be drawn with one straight line because they are zones, not fixed points. If 3198 is not support. then where is it?
Yeah tbh i tagged that as more of a potential support. Defo not proven like the other levels

Here id say
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  • #1,418
  • Oct 10, 2017 3:22pm Oct 10, 2017 3:22pm
Quoting nealpek
Close.From the move between 3176 and 3225, support is the zone between 3176 and 3185. The tails you see beside the lowest black bar and just touching the red box from the top, is the only place I will take a trade. I leave it to you to figure out why the entire area is a support zone. Once you master this concept, every pullback is viewed as an opportunity, and every market is tradable the same way!!
Ahh off by a couple ticks. Damn!

So the zone i have highlighted is where you would take a trade but the entire support zone is up to 85
  • #1,419
  • Oct 10, 2017 3:24pm Oct 10, 2017 3:24pm
yes
  • #1,420
  • Oct 10, 2017 3:25pm Oct 10, 2017 3:25pm
Quoting nealpek
It isn't enough to draw them, you must understand what they represent and why! {image}
is it also possible to detect those perfect sup-res live ? not in hindsight ?
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