A Simple Amalgamation

An amalgamation is the process of combining or uniting multiple entities into one form. Does this definition actually refer to some trading system? Not really, but I like the way it sounds and the definition is close enough.

This is the third and final iteration for this journey.

Attempted to trade the ES. What a ride. Sadly I was knocked out before it went meteoric. Oh well.

Have completely changed again ( I seem to have some chameleon in me).

Created a simple indicator system based on NNFX. Search it. Some good info imo.

I have a system ready to go. But, I have been sidetracked a bit. I must have ADHD. I had a bad cataract on my right eye likely from an injury years ago so my doctor says and a lesser one on the left. Being elective surgery all she could do was hint that it would be a good idea to do it. Had these surgeries during Mar 2021 and am very pleased with the results as I can see distance at near 20/15 level. I need to use readers for close work now. In that time I stumbled on

I heard a few things about this guy, some good, some not good. ICT (Inner Circle Trader). Decided to take a look at a couple of his videos. I like how he explains "his" stuff. I used quotes because it is generic price action for the most part. A couple things seem they may be unique to him. Matters not. His stuff is good if you view with an open mind. I know most on this forum look at themselves as trading gods. I do not see it. I see mostly liars and story tellers.

I have watched many of his videos. Would like to get some of his private stuff but I think my general knowledge of the market will allow me to make the public stuff work. His way to price action trading makes the most sense to me and is the clearest and simplest. I have read Al Brooks book and attempted to use it to no avail. It was not very clear and I think the only person who can trade his method is him.

So, I have been slowly heading to this point in trading where I drop the indicators and trade just the chart. I plan on keeping it as simplistic as I possibly can. One way to do that is only trade a few pairs taking what they will give. As of now a few possibilities I am looking at are the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/JPY, and maybe the USD/CAD and EUR/GBP.

In the process of viewing some of ICTs videos and reading some criticism of him in a few different places I have been introduced to Chris Lori (Price Traders Club). I have decided to add him as my primary source for learning price action.

In the meantime I will use my indicator system to make trades.

Between this post and to A Simple Amalgamation | Page 9 | Forex Factory is mostly junk. If I could delete it all I would.

Planning on going the prop route from here.

"Rules"

1. I do NOT trade the paradox system anymore. Do NOT ask me about it.

2. I know I have much different opinions (mostly political) than most. This is not the place for them.

3. If I think you're being a jerk I will ignore you in a heartbeat.

I don't use MT4, but most do and that's why the indis are for MT4. Here is a screen snot of the USD/JPY with the indicators I use for this.

As you can see it is mostly clean. This is a combo indi/PA system. The concept of how to use the moving averages will likely be a lot different from how most use them. MAs will provide support and resistance. But usually only strongly when outside of the "trading area". You can see that by throwing a bollinger band on the price chart. Everything between the upper and lower band is the trading area. Once a moving average gets inside that area the S/R it provides can be more easily broken. Also an MA that moves into the "trading area" will indicate a possible change in "trend". That trend being price above the moving average is long and below is short.

The use of the Hull ma will take longer to explain and I will write that up so it makes sense.

The stochastic is used to give a "heads up" when price gets into "overbought" and "oversold" levels. That way you can be prepared for a possible direction change. Keep in mind that it can stay at those extreme levels for extended periods.

So, until I write up an explanation for the Hull I am done for now. After I do that I will do some trade examples. All in due time.

I don't trade forex a whole lot anymore. I use it mainly as an experimental area. I have been watching Al Brooks latest videos that he is making. Some very interesting things and ways to look at price. I like that he does not get all caught up in extreme precision of definitions. A lot of his conceptual thinking is in line with mine. It is not an easy learning curve with his stuff. I do recommend it if you have some time and the extra money to spend on his course.

I have gone back to trading mostly seasonal future spreadz. Grains and livestock mostly. I did that for many years in the 90s. Got away from it for awhile, but have returned.

Many people trade the forex though. With its lower entry cost it is a prime vehicle for getting into the business. The main problem I see is that too many try and treat it like investing when it is really more suited to speculative trading from my point of view.

Thanks for starting this thread. I'm looking forward to it.

tks spzd, interesting! subscribed

Thanks guys. Good to see you again.

An example of the 120 smooth in the "trading area". I put a 20 period bollinger using the high-low average. The Hull is mainly a shorter term cycle indicator.
I have recently gone to using the 120 smooth ma. It is similar to say a 200 simple ma. So it is not that important to use one over another. You need to use what you think fits best. Once you have chosen, try to stick to it (I changed to this after going for a time with totally naked charts. That learning curve is a bit steep and until I get better at it I have opted to return to using some indicators. The 120 smooth looked good and I have opted to use it.).

This is the USD/JPY H1 covering 9/25 to 10/10 (roughly a week and half).
1 - The 120 going through the "trading area". The cycle is up as seen by the Hull. A pause at the 120 and through. Once inside the bands, it is easier for price to go through the 120.
2 - The 120 is at the edge of the lower band. In this position (or the same at the upper band) it gives stronger S/R.
3 - Right down the middle of the "trading area". When it does this price will sometimes "oscillate" around the moving average. Eventually it will move up or down into a new cycle/trend.

The support or resistance provided by a moving average is not a guarantee that it will hold. An MA such as the 120 here is best suited to show trend direction, with S/R dependent on where the MA is most often. Put most any kind of moving average on a price chart that has a period to show trend and you will see they all perform about the same.

The Hull performs as a cycle indicator. It is fairly closely syncd with the stochastic. This is the EUR/JPY H1 of this week showing the Hull "cycles". As you can see this is not even perfect, but it is close enough when combined with the other "crutches" and some basic PA S/R. (Note: there is a phenomenon that occurs with the Hull and likely many other short term MAs on price. I will discuss that soon)

After I go over the "secret" of the Hull and some of the "rules" I will start showing some trades. The trade examples will be next week. The rest will likely be tomorrow as I have to be up early in the am. Hang tight.

Thank you spzd for this thread, looks interesting.

Some good stuff coming today and tomorrow.

Apologies for not posting in a week. Was very busy working.

Something to consider.

Does "news" make price move? Or is it but a reason to move price?

The latter is the correct answer. The next time there is a larger move off the news, check the trend and S/R. You will likely find that the news was but a reason to move price.

After I get back from church this morning I will post some things about the price interaction/reaction with moving averages. It is rather interesting. Yes the MAs are a result of a mathematical equation performed on price, so the MAs will always lag a certain amount. There is, however, an interaction/reaction of the two. I call it a "phenomenon" for lack of a better label. This is something most people never consider when it comes to MAs. It is similar to the interaction/reaction you see between price and trend lines or even fibs.

The Hull will give a somewhat cyclic result. It also mirrors the stochastic a bit. In general the Hull gives a good smoothed, albeit lagging some, representation of price as you can see in this pic. I use the H+L average. The green line is price and the orange is the Hull. Even with the lag, the Hull is not that far behind price. This is one of the reasons I use it. (For more info see https://alanhull.com/hull-moving-average )

There are a couple various interaction/reaction scenarios between price and an MA. One is that the MA acts as a magnet pulling price back to it. Now we all know that this is not the case, but it definitely gives that appearance. I think this is the result of price always trying to go back to some state of equilibrium which can be denoted by an MA. In this pic there were a few instances of larger price spikes followed by mostly sideways price movement. As you can see on this 60 min chart this occurred four times in a 7 day period. So it is not uncommon. This is the result of price moving in a climatic manner then hitting S/R. once it has stopped, price moved sideways to the Hull in 3 of the 4 instances (the first it retraced to and through the Hull). More often than not, when this happens there will be some type of move in the opposite direction.

Another phenomenon of price/indicator interaction/reaction is when price passes through the MA. The Hull will form a trough (bottom) or arch (top). Price will move through these and will set up for movement in the opposite direction.