{quote} But there was his dad, Wozniak, Jackson, and ME! Perhaps you might be questioning your trading abilities after viewing some of my charts! Perhaps there would be no CrucialPoint without NealPek! Wouldn't that be a gas....
Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick
- #1,362
- Oct 9, 2017 5:17pm Oct 9, 2017 5:17pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts
{quote} The joke is that choosing to become a mathematician has a low probability of getting the accolades for your achievements. And if you are a mathematician who gets a Nobel Prize... nobody care and you are not that celebrated like the other Nobel Lauriates. That's why it is ranked at the bottom, not due to its intellectual prowess. But ranked bottom due to social unpopularity. LOLTypical humans.
Mmmmm. You may have seen a different cartoon. The message was clear in the one I saw. No riddle. :-)
......and we probably have different opinions about what success even means.
Damn humans :-)
- #1,363
- Oct 9, 2017 5:21pm Oct 9, 2017 5:21pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts
{quote} You are such a good contributor to this thread. Have you tested this over 2008 crisis? It would be interesting to know. There are a few things I would change to make it better. You are a smart guy so it would not be too hard to figure out. Looking for right tails is key Backtesting is only used to reject a strategy not predict how well it will do in the future. But, if it has not worked well in the past, it is unlikely to work well in the future. Funny that.
I hope that makes sense. :-)
- #1,364
- Oct 9, 2017 5:28pm Oct 9, 2017 5:28pm
- Joined Nov 2015 | Status: I'm hungry | 4,034 Posts
{quote} The joke is that choosing to become a mathematician has a low probability of getting the accolades for your achievements. And if you are a mathematician who gets a Nobel Prize... nobody care and you are not that celebrated like the other Nobel Lauriates. That's why it is ranked at the bottom, not due to its intellectual prowess. But ranked bottom due to social unpopularity. LOL
- #1,365
- Edited 6:06pm Oct 9, 2017 5:31pm | Edited 6:06pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts
{quote} The declining PF over the last 2 years is a concern. Have you looked into it? and found out why. Do you have the numbers for 2008?
Declining PF in last 2 years is common amongst all divergent strategies. Mean reversion has ruled the day since 2010. The time between drinks for trend following or momentum has been longer but the events when they occur gave been more severe. As a result CAGR in the longer term is still constant....but most won't believe it :-)
Here is a chart to demonstrate what I mean.
Below is the commentary I attach with this chart to let everyone make up their own mind.
The chart above forensically examines the performance of 54 diversified trend following funds that have been in operation since 2000. They say a picture paints a thousand words....so I will let you have a crack at interpreting it. Compare the performance of the established long term CTA's against the S&P500TR Index. Do you see what I see?
Ask yourself the following questions.
- Is trend following dead or more generally market divergence?
- Has the long term performance of the diversified trend following fund mangers really declined?
- Have market conditions changed post 2008 and how?
- What can I do to make my portfolio more robust?
Cheers Mate :-)
- #1,366
- Oct 9, 2017 5:43pm Oct 9, 2017 5:43pm
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: IN VICTORY | 1,867 Posts
Something to think about
IMPROVISE ADAPT OVERCOME
- #1,371
- Oct 9, 2017 5:50pm Oct 9, 2017 5:50pm
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: IN VICTORY | 1,867 Posts
IMPROVISE ADAPT OVERCOME
{quote} There will be no Mayweather without his dad and uncle to train him. There will be no Steve Job without Steve Wozniak There will be no Michael Jordan without Phil Jackson Despite having a success-mindset, you won't reach your potential without the people (or the environment) that can leverage your potential. If Randomness and chaos didn't provide you with the right environment, your success-mindset will dry up against the wind. You will be a totally different person if you didn't meet me.
Did I ever say that CP does not exist?
But it is not a case that I found your threads, it's not a case that S. Jobs met Wozniak, it's not a case that M.Jordan met Phil Jackson.
- #1,373
- Oct 9, 2017 6:17pm Oct 9, 2017 6:17pm
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: IN VICTORY | 1,867 Posts
IMPROVISE ADAPT OVERCOME
- #1,375
- Edited 6:59pm Oct 9, 2017 6:29pm | Edited 6:59pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts
- #1,376
- Oct 9, 2017 6:44pm Oct 9, 2017 6:44pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Adios! | 3,377 Posts
Staying in my lane...
- #1,377
- Oct 9, 2017 7:03pm Oct 9, 2017 7:03pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Adios! | 3,377 Posts
Staying in my lane...
- #1,378
- Edited 8:27pm Oct 9, 2017 7:09pm | Edited 8:27pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts
{quote} That's when I come in to calm the waters with my words of wisdom on peace. I am the Gandhi that everyone needs in their (forum) life LMAO
Your mind is only known to you. Your actions define you....and I have seen the way you seek to encourage discussion and ameliorate angst and anger. That is really the only thing we can go on in this forum as we are not mind-readers.
It is an ugly thought to consider how many potential sociopaths and worse *psycopaths* may be lurking on this forum....so the best I can do is judge others by their contribution and the way they contribute.
....and they say I have problems....pffft.....tasty humans :-)
- #1,379
- Oct 9, 2017 7:10pm Oct 9, 2017 7:10pm
- | Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,170 Posts
{quote} Indeed, my jorney began to make sense after reading your threads. Did I ever say that CP does not exist?
