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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #5,021
  • Oct 9, 2017 10:15am Oct 9, 2017 10:15am
Quoting Tulkas
Any thoughts on why the 3182 failure?
I don't know, it means nothing to me. If we could speak of a real mid term failure then we have to consider 31637 as a failed test. I mean that bigger time frame do not act on exact references. So price went up, above 31637, found nothing and then bigger timeframes started selling from there.

If it has not been a real failure, meaning we simply got inventories too long then in this case the thing we are currently seeing is only a liquidation of those inventories.

For now pit session didn't re test 31637. And I do not know if a test with US bank holiday could in any case be considered a valid one, due to the lack of participation of serious money in such condition.

So from here, weak participants of current pit session could continue the liquidation lower, eventually finding themselves too short or could re attempt a preliminary test of 31637, even without stronger participants involved.

For now we got acceptation inside Thursday pit session range, so I will not be surprised by a continuation downside.

At the same time note that we still have a considerable new gap upside from Friday pit session high. And this gap could support price action.
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  • #5,022
  • Oct 9, 2017 10:24am Oct 9, 2017 10:24am
Finally note that we are close to composite poc 3138: volume needed to evade it in any direction.
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  • #5,023
  • Oct 9, 2017 10:42am Oct 9, 2017 10:42am
I often find "the lunatics running the asylum" with major bank holidays, though last week was excellent, even with China closed...
TULKAS
  • #5,024
  • Oct 9, 2017 11:33am Oct 9, 2017 11:33am
Quoting Lock
Finally note that we are close to composite poc 3138: volume needed to evade it in any direction.
As you see it is stuck at composite poc 3138. Specially with weak hands ruling a market a composite poc has few chances to be evaded.
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  • #5,025
  • Oct 9, 2017 11:34am Oct 9, 2017 11:34am
Quoting Tulkas
I often find "the lunatics running the asylum" with major bank holidays, though last week was excellent, even with China closed...
It could happen and you could also profit from some particular situation. But generally it's a hard market to trade.
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  • #5,026
  • Oct 9, 2017 12:19pm Oct 9, 2017 12:19pm
So it looks like it want to attempt a new test(but the first one for pit session today) of 31637. Even without strong participation (see current poor low at 3126)
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  • #5,027
  • Oct 9, 2017 2:38pm Oct 9, 2017 2:38pm
Quoting Lock
So it looks like it want to attempt a new test(but the first one for pit session today) of 31637. Even without strong participation (see current poor low at 3126)

Too weak for everything but balance. Poor high and poor low. I'm off. Have a nice continuation. Best, L.
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  • #5,028
  • Oct 10, 2017 1:05am Oct 10, 2017 1:05am
Quoting Lock
{quote} As you see it is stuck at composite poc 3138. Specially with weak hands ruling a market a composite poc has few chances to be evaded.

Quoting Lock
{quote} Too weak for everything but balance. Poor high and poor low. I'm off. Have a nice continuation. Best, L.
Pit session not only closed in balance, but closed exactly at 3138. Then during overnight an other test to 31637 has been performed, this time by both Tokyo and China participants (and it is the first time in the last 6 trading days.)
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  • #5,029
  • Oct 10, 2017 1:07am Oct 10, 2017 1:07am
Now, yesterday GB session made a new test upside with a substantial spike with base at 3125. We have almost an hour to see GB open but in any case spike rules will apply. Exactly as happened yesterday.

Remember that in case of a new gap upside we will have 2 form of excess pointing in the same direction. SO it will be a must do long, at least initially.

Then in case of a continuation upside the next visible level is the brexit low at 32273, anticipated by the upper composite poc 3206 and followed by the old GB gap downside from 3233 to 32437.

If instead we will see price open below spike base 3125, then we could consider the yesterday GB test upside rejected by overnight participants and this could force GB to go downside first. And in this case the first weakness to correct will be yesterday GB poor low at 31025 and the second one will be yesterday overnight weak low at 30742
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  • #5,030
  • Oct 10, 2017 2:14am Oct 10, 2017 2:14am
Testing Tokyo high: for any meaningful continuation upside acceptation above it is needed. Obviously acceptation above our major level 31637 is needed too. If not...
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  • #5,031
  • Oct 10, 2017 5:01am Oct 10, 2017 5:01am
Quoting Lock
Now, yesterday GB session made a new test upside with a substantial spike with base at 3125. We have almost an hour to see GB open but in any case spike rules will apply. Exactly as happened yesterday. Remember that in case of a new gap upside we will have 2 form of excess pointing in the same direction. SO it will be a must do long, at least initially.
Quoting Lock
Then in case of a continuation upside the next visible level is the brexit low at 32273, anticipated by the upper composite poc 3206 and followed by the old GB gap downside from 3233 to 32437. If instead we will see price open below spike base 3125, then we could consider the yesterday GB test upside rejected by overnight participants and this could force GB to go downside first. And in this case the first weakness to correct will be yesterday GB poor low at 31025 and the...
Quoting Lock
Testing Tokyo high: for any meaningful continuation upside acceptation above it is needed. Obviously acceptation above our major level 31637 is needed too. If not...

GB opened above yesterday GB spike base at 3125, applying spike rules we could expect initial upside motivations, and we got them.

Then current GB action obtained acceptation above both Tokyo high and our main reference 31637 and as a consequence here we are at upper composite poc 3206, as expected in this situation.
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  • #5,032
  • Oct 10, 2017 5:31am Oct 10, 2017 5:31am
G inside F: balance rules apply here.
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  • #5,033
  • Oct 10, 2017 6:32am Oct 10, 2017 6:32am
Quoting Lock
G inside F: balance rules apply here.
So it attempted a break downside, leaving a poor high above at 3203. It could be only a liquidation but I see a lot of volatility that I cannot explain at all.
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  • #5,034
  • Oct 10, 2017 6:34am Oct 10, 2017 6:34am
Hi Lock, always great reading your analysis. I am looking for an entry to long GBP, be it against USD or JPY, do you reckon I will have any chance today?
  • #5,035
  • Oct 10, 2017 6:38am Oct 10, 2017 6:38am
Quoting MoneyFocus
Hi Lock, always great reading your analysis. I am looking for an entry to long GBP, be it against USD or JPY, do you reckon I will have any chance today?

We are experiencing a break downside from balance. A market goes from bullish to balance then to bullish again or bear. It is very rare a V shape. So I suggest to wait for a new balance before to take any new decision. Anyway in H1 the attempted break downside is not accepted yet. So we still have the possibility to retrace back upside. Monitor H1 in this case: last inside period low (the balance) in relation to current one.
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  • #5,036
  • Oct 10, 2017 6:43am Oct 10, 2017 6:43am
Also remember that in something like 15 minutes we will have new participants in the market as we will have preUS open at 14:00+1GMT
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  • #5,037
  • Oct 10, 2017 7:20am Oct 10, 2017 7:20am
Thank you Lock. Green pips to you.
  • #5,038
  • Oct 10, 2017 7:30am Oct 10, 2017 7:30am
Quoting MoneyFocus
Thank you Lock. Green pips to you.
You're welcome. Best, L.
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  • #5,039
  • Oct 10, 2017 9:03am Oct 10, 2017 9:03am
Pit session opened with a new gap upside: unless it will be quickly filled, odds are in favor for a continuation upside.

31637 is still our most important level for today. So monitor for acceptation above it (or not)

Current US range (preUS+pit US) is extremely narrow. It should unfold from here.

In case of continuation upside the next visible level is the top of the old pit gap downside (3244). The problem here is the composite poc 3206 that could attract price (as could attract price 3137 in case of no acceptation above 31637.
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  • #5,040
  • Oct 10, 2017 9:34am Oct 10, 2017 9:34am
In the last hours we experienced huge volatility and I do not know why, as said.
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