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Right But Wrong...

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 5, 2017 11:22pm Oct 5, 2017 11:22pm
Hello all,

So recently I've encountered a problem. As I'm sure happens to many, I am often correct about expected price direction, yet fail miserably in timing and 'stop-outs.' I always thought the 'stop-out' issue was a myth. Yet literally each price swing hits the stop (often within pips) then proceeds to go as planned. Its infuriating. I'm considering not even placing stops, maybe mental ones, or ones based on action, yet this rigid 'Price-Stop' idea is killing me. All the losses AND the lost profit potential! Unbelievable.

So any help? Your experiences? Does it happen to you? And what is the best approach to tackle it? Maybe a stop system, no stops &/or and signal?

Thanks,
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #2
  • Edited 4:04am Oct 6, 2017 12:37am | Edited 4:04am
Quoting CannonScout
Hello all, So recently I've encountered a problem. As I'm sure happens to many, I am often correct about expected price direction, yet fail miserably in timing and 'stop-outs.' I always thought the 'stop-out' issue was a myth. Yet literally each price swing hits the stop (often within pips) then proceeds to go as planned. Its infuriating. I'm considering not even placing stops, maybe mental ones, or ones based on action, yet this rigid 'Price-Stop' idea is killing me. All the losses AND the lost profit potential! Unbelievable. So any help? Your...
Need more data.
1. Do you want to share your technique? Perhaps your entry is off.
2. By rigid, do you mean your stop is a fixed value and not determined by the last high/low? I use semafors to track highs and lows so the stop is easy to place. Some people also use PSAR. With PSAR I recommend 0.1 / 1.0. Common sense still rules the spot. For me, stops are "catastrophic" points because my system will signal me if I am losing. The stop does not make me lose. It is there to protect my account, not my trade. If your technique will accept it, consider 10 or so pips from the last high/low. Of course the major thing to do is fix your entry signal so you are not in drawdown so much. If you keep entering and dealing with drawdown, then you are in front of the herd. I think it is better to follow than lead because I am not the one trading billions of dollars to set the mood, lol. If I am behind them, they don't see me. Your issue on my system is called a head fake, so over time, you need to correct that.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDproH1.png Size: 62 KB
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #3
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:10am Oct 6, 2017 1:10am
Timing is everything, isn't it? I still can't catch it right with timing. Therefore I have learned how to flip directions instead... and wait for the movement moment(s).

Four years of failures thought me there are many flips. One is to set up into the last direction. The other, also deadly important flip is to know where to flip already profitable trades (that has been flipped already - to catch the initial direction) at the counter trend correction points? This second flip is super hard, in the beginning.

Keep in mind, when you properly set yourself up with a direction, the first kind of flip, you might not be in profit when the time comes for the second flip. The profit usually pops out shortly after the second flip. I have an example I have posted yesterday. The image attached clearly shows how I have missed the first buy flipping point around 1269 on 3 oct.

Ignore the numbers mentioned. Examine my mistake. I have corrected it at around 1279. Moved from very late 1274-75 average buy price (from the small flips - they are costly) on 3 oct, to 1279 sell instead on 4 oct. Few hours after the major flip I was at hefty profit. Before the that I was at a misery DD and there would not have been any exit point for me.

Quoting MoneyZilla
Huge mistake on 3 oct cost me XXX of dd. I was sleeping and missed to take the far buy flip. New EA should do it automatically. Missed XXX in revenue income because of that. Decreased my profit with at least XXX. If taken properly on 3 oct in the early morning, net XXX and over would have been pocketed, instead of just XXX.
So, flipping does not guarantees you anything. The small flips catch the momentum direction, but you need one more major flip to get profitable.

Pips are HORIZONTAL. In a day there are more than 700-800 pips at least on the HORIZONTAL scale. And some lousy 100-150 pips on the straight line (vertical). The horizontal pips hit all your SLs.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #4
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:28am Oct 6, 2017 1:28am
Quoting MoneyZilla
... Pips are HORIZONTAL. In a day there are more than 700-800 pips at least on the HORIZONTAL scale. And some lousy 100-150 pips on the straight line (vertical). The horizontal pips hit all your SLs.
Dear MZ,
Could you explain more about the Pips move in Horizontal! I still didnot get it. Thanks in advanced
  • #5
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:49am Oct 6, 2017 1:49am
Quoting CannonScout
Hello all, So recently I've encountered a problem. As I'm sure happens to many, I am often correct about expected price direction, yet fail miserably in timing and 'stop-outs.' I always thought the 'stop-out' issue was a myth. Yet literally each price swing hits the stop (often within pips) then proceeds to go as planned. Its infuriating. I'm considering not even placing stops, maybe mental ones, or ones based on action, yet this rigid 'Price-Stop' idea is killing me. All the losses AND the lost profit potential! Unbelievable. So any help? Your...
Except the fact trading consistently is a long journey, i would give you only one suggestion. Never, never ever, trade without a stop, sooner or later you will regret this decision.
  • #6
  • Oct 6, 2017 2:12am Oct 6, 2017 2:12am
Quoting CannonScout
Hello all, So recently I've encountered a problem. As I'm sure happens to many, I am often correct about expected price direction, yet fail miserably in timing and 'stop-outs.' I always thought the 'stop-out' issue was a myth. Yet literally each price swing hits the stop (often within pips) then proceeds to go as planned. Its infuriating. I'm considering not even placing stops, maybe mental ones, or ones based on action, yet this rigid 'Price-Stop' idea is killing me. All the losses AND the lost profit potential! Unbelievable. So any help? Your...
Yes, it happens everytime.
It is called Accumulation or Distribution process.
The market will literaly "eat" the stop loss before reverse.

The key is to learn where these "zones" are.
  • #7
  • Oct 6, 2017 2:21am Oct 6, 2017 2:21am
If you are right in what you claimed then you have the easiest of problem. Just increase your SL by another 10-20 pips then problem solved..no big deal.

GS
  • #8
  • Oct 6, 2017 2:29am Oct 6, 2017 2:29am
Quoting genghistar
If you are right in what you claimed then you have the easiest of problem. Just increase your SL by another 10-20 pips then problem solved..no big deal. GS
If you have a sample of 50 or more trades (ideally 100 trades) and you come to this conclusion that the price reverses from a few pips below or above your stop then what genghistar said is the best solution.
I don't know your Risk Reward ratio and again that can make a difference.
When the going gets tough , the tough get going
  • #9
  • Oct 6, 2017 3:54am Oct 6, 2017 3:54am
Quoting mav3n
{quote} Dear MZ, Could you explain more about the Pips move in Horizontal! I still didnot get it. Thanks in advanced
Here is one M15 example on gold, from yesterday. 600+ pips on the horizontal there were vs 126 pips (from top to bottom) on the vertical.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold_600+_horizontal_pips.png Size: 54 KB
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #10
  • Oct 6, 2017 3:56am Oct 6, 2017 3:56am
This my idea, I have never trade it before. I suppose you are a trend trader, but you think that the most of the times the price is going to turn, why don't you hedge your position in a way that when the trade is going to reverse and hit stop loss exit from your entries without a scratch (exept the fees) but when the price is in your favor keep the profits and save your balance with an exit plan for the lossing trade at break even or if, it moves against you an x number of pips. The winnings must overcome the losses in order to have a winning edge.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #11
  • Oct 6, 2017 3:57am Oct 6, 2017 3:57am
Quoting genghistar
If you are right in what you claimed then you have the easiest of problem. Just increase your SL by another 10-20 pips then problem solved..no big deal. GS
This, but to go further, you should be reviewing each of those losing trades and look at the exact drawdown values and then you will know how much to increase your SL by going forward.
  • #12
  • Oct 6, 2017 9:25am Oct 6, 2017 9:25am
The trader that would know where to place a stop, would not need to place a stop. As straight as it could be said.
  • #13
  • Oct 7, 2017 11:01am Oct 7, 2017 11:01am
Quoting Onizuka
{quote} Yes, it happens everytime. It is called Accumulation or Distribution process. The market will literaly "eat" the stop loss before reverse. The key is to learn where these "zones" are.
I like this answer. Could you provide a good link? Or perhaps describe here if capable? Thank you.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #14
  • Oct 9, 2017 12:09am Oct 9, 2017 12:09am
My friend you will need some time to have a hold on the Forex Market, though it may seem to you as easy as pie, but it is quite difficult one, but don't give up, eventually you would be earning too.
  • #15
  • Oct 9, 2017 12:00pm Oct 9, 2017 12:00pm
Quoting CannonScout
{quote} I like this answer. Could you provide a good link? Or perhaps describe here if capable? Thank you.
You should have a look to : Richard D. Wyckoff.
Some VSA traders are very good at it too.

That is a good begining.
  • #16
  • Last Post: Oct 9, 2017 4:36pm Oct 9, 2017 4:36pm
I forgot to mention another stop loss technique I read about. They place the stop at the lowest/highest of the previous 3 candles. You might look that over and see if you can apply it.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
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