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  • #1,261
  • Oct 8, 2017 3:45pm Oct 8, 2017 3:45pm
waiting for the next crisis.
NQ going up fast from 2009 onwards 1,017 to more than 6,000 right now.
what goes up fast, will go down faster still.
  • #1,262
  • Oct 8, 2017 3:54pm Oct 8, 2017 3:54pm
Quoting yonnie
waiting for the next crisis. NQ going up fast from 2009 onwards 1,017 to more than 6,000 right now. what goes up fast, will go down faster still.
You can do something about it now and wait for the event to unfold....if you have confidence in that happening. You just need to look for something with zero holding costs *hint* and can strictly manage any downside risk.....and when that event has transpired you revert to perhaps Alphaomega's classic examples.....and so on and so forth. The fruits of counter-cyclical investing.....sorry that's not trading I know in the strict definition of some in this forum...or is it? :-)
  • #1,263
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:00pm Oct 8, 2017 4:00pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} The conventional investments always deliver low returns. Why would anyone expect anything else? For the big returns brains are needed and the will to take big risk without fear. In fact you can make decent returns even with conventional investments if you posses the qualities which I mentioned. For example if you bought US stocks for 1M during the financial crisis 2008-2009. you at least triple your money without any leverage and without lifting a finger. Just buy and hold. For comparison - if you bought BTC at the same time even for 10K...
Corect, albeit reasoning after the fact means nothing. Opportunities have to be seen and taken before the fact.
However the majority are not prepared to trade, they expect to risk 10 and gain 100.
Profits are correlated to risk: big profits equal to big risks.
  • #1,264
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:03pm Oct 8, 2017 4:03pm
hi C,

undoubtedly it will happen - from 2009 to 2017 is the second longest bull run in history - its "only" a matter of when.
I will be looking at futures with Interactive Brokers and I have some accounts with forex brokers, who offer cfd`s on futures without charging holding costs.
  • #1,265
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:06pm Oct 8, 2017 4:06pm
Quoting yonnie
hi C, undoubtedly it will happen - from 2009 to 2017 is the second longest bull run in history - its "only" a matter of when. I will be looking at futures with Interactive Brokers and I have some accounts with forex brokers, who offer cfd`s on futures without charging holding costs.
Mate if you are thinking what I am thinking check out some brokers offerrings like Pepperstone with CFDs The instruments that matter have zero holding costs which was a big surprise to me. Time to get the last laugh from the *****strds :-)
  • #1,266
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:20pm Oct 8, 2017 4:20pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Mate if you are thinking what I am thinking check out some brokers offerrings like Pepperstone with CFDs The instruments that matter have zero holding costs which was a big surprise to me. Time to get the last laugh from the *****strds :-)
I do have an account with Pepperstone, but haven`t traded with them for awhile. they must have changed the equity cfd`s, because before they only offered cash cfd`s and charging overnight fees.
I joined British brokers for their government guarantee and both ActivTrades and Hantec offer cfd`s on futures.
  • #1,267
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:27pm Oct 8, 2017 4:27pm
Quoting yonnie
{quote} I do have an account with Pepperstone, but haven`t traded with them for awhile. they must have changed the equity cfd`s, because before they only offered cash cfd`s and charging overnight fees. I joined British brokers for their government guarantee and both ActivTrades and Hantec offers cfd`s on futures.
Yep mate...I must admit that I wasn't expecting zero holding costs.....but there lies open the 'exploitable opportunity' for all to see. It is a bit like Philip Capital that has positive swap on AUDCAD in both directions (but haven't checked lately)....and this has been maintained ever since I bumped into them many years back. Someone is making some dough of this opportunity with loose capital.

Look at energies and soft commodities on Pepperstone and what happens to them when equities **** themselves. Look at their relative value now and how far from zero they are. That's my 'rainy day' play at least. I will leave it there and let other do some head scratching and homework.

There are many gems that I have come across on this forum alone...that simply are overshot in the noise of it all. I personally think we should be more like scavengers looking for scraps on this forum as we would have a great feed from it. :-)
  • #1,268
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:31pm Oct 8, 2017 4:31pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Yep mate...I must admit that I wasn't expecting zero holding costs.....but there lies open the 'exploitable opportunity' for all to see. It is a bit like Philip Capital that has positive swap on AUDCAD in both directions (but haven't checked lately)....and this has been maintained ever since I bumped into them many years back. Someone is making some dough of this opportunity with loose capital. Look at energies and soft commodities on Pepperstone and what happens to them when equities **** themselves. Look at their relative value now and...
Oh the pearls that fall by the way side .
IMPROVISE ADAPT OVERCOME
  • #1,269
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:32pm Oct 8, 2017 4:32pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} You can do something about it now and wait for the event to unfold....if you have confidence in that happening. You just need to look for something with zero holding costs *hint* and can strictly manage any downside risk.....and when that event has transpired you revert to perhaps Alphaomega's classic examples.....and so on and so forth. The fruits of counter-cyclical investing.....sorry that's not trading I know in the strict definition of some in this forum...or is it? :-)
Yep. There are ways to beat the market. And not just to beat it, but to smash all typical expectations with return which is over hundred deviations above normal. And all this have very little to do with trading or forecasting.

IMO Forex trading was great 10 years ago. And it was even greater 20 years ago. Today.. not so much.....

The real players always try to stay ahead of the game by searching for new opportunities in all corners of the market.
You see, the thing about markets, trading and investing is fact that the biggest opportunities are always hidden in the last places you would ever look. Often in plain sight.

Such is the case even with conventional investments.

The best time to buy stocks is when you see blood on the streets. Meaning the situation with the economy is so bad, everyone is desperate, people are protesting, governments are falling.....the sky is falling.....it's the end of the world.

And the best time to sell these stocks is when the taxi drivers and the construction workers begin to talk about their great investment on the stock market.
Usually during these times, you may also hear financial advisors in the MSM more often than usual.
  • #1,270
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:34pm Oct 8, 2017 4:34pm
Quoting josh11
I know all CP is saying is correct, all his post make a lot of sense, if you really do understand, its been a journey to figure it all out, once you do it is amazing!! keep up the good work CP...
but one serious question, you speak about his basics, or also about his bigger mistakes (because you wrote "all is sayin is correct" and some was 100% wrong)? he describes often in most complicated way very simple things, most you could write in 2 sentences same time. ofcourse many of this basics are complete ok (advanced things sometimes ok, sometimes wrong, sometimes unimportant for trading), thats why basic anyone should learn and you can read on many places.
  • #1,271
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:35pm Oct 8, 2017 4:35pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
....Back in the 1980 the house price was around $30k... average income was around $12K.
Back in those days property investment was not a hot topic.....
Back in the 1980s, Robert Allen, Tony Hoffman, Albert J. Lowry, Dave Del Doto etc... were on TV talking about buying real estate NO MONEY DOWN and the wonders of accelerated depreciation.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #1,272
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:43pm Oct 8, 2017 4:43pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I have always wondered if anyone has traded CFDs and made money i.e. withdraw profits from broker.I have only traded oil with one offshore broker and the price feed was so rigged, I could not muster playing with more than few 100 dollars.
Every instrument can be mis-priced dependent on your objectives. CFD's can provide a great way to get exposure to other instruments that have barriers to your objectives. Futures have some issues to consider such as expiry rolls and lot size restrictions which can be problematic for certain types of strategy. Those objectives may not simply be related to transactional costs of trading. As they say....every cloud has a silver lining...Frequently you find that the demand for a product such as CFD's is derived from a very good fundamental reason....not simply the guise of a method that the financial services industry uses to exploit it's customers, although nothing in this financial world appears to be free...unless of course there is an error or another motive for the free offerring:-)
  • #1,273
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:54pm Oct 8, 2017 4:54pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Every instrument can be mis-priced dependent on your objectives. CFD's can provide a great way to get exposure to other instruments that have barriers to your objectives. Futures have some issues to consider such as expiry rolls and lot size restrictions which can be problematic for certain types of strategy. Those objectives may not simply be related to transactional costs of trading. As they say....every cloud has a silver lining....:-)
from what you write you look more like an middle and long term trader, so no intraday trades? what is your shortest time between opening and closing in general ?
so you use more diversificated portfolio trading optimized over all possible investment classes?
  • #1,274
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:55pm Oct 8, 2017 4:55pm
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} but one serious question, you speak about his basics, or also about his bigger mistakes (because you wrote "all is sayin is correct" and some was 100% wrong)? he describes often in most complicated way very simple things, most you could write in 2 sentences same time. ofcourse many of this basics are complete ok (advanced things sometimes ok, sometimes wrong, sometimes unimportant for trading), thats why basic anyone should learn and you can read on many places.
All of us are on a journey my friend, all of us have blown accounts and made many mistakes ,on our journey what we say today may not be what we say in 5yrs time as the scars we have gathered have told us there is a better way ,all respect and all the very best my friend ,GW.
IMPROVISE ADAPT OVERCOME
  • #1,275
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:56pm Oct 8, 2017 4:56pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I have always wondered if anyone has traded CFDs and made money i.e. withdraw profits from broker.I have only traded oil with one offshore broker and the price feed was so rigged, I could not muster playing with more than few 100 dollars.
I only ever withdrew profits from Interactive Brokers, but only traded the sub 1 cent stocks on the Australian market. it afforded me to buy my house and living off the proceeds.
this system is not possible anymore, because of government changes unfortunately.

I never withdrew any money from the British brokers - I opened those accounts within the last year and ActivTrades have an insurance policy for GBP 500,000 per client, separate from the government guarantee of GBP 50k.
  • #1,276
  • Oct 8, 2017 5:01pm Oct 8, 2017 5:01pm
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} from what you write you look more like an middle and long term trader, so no intraday trades? what is your shortest time between opening and closing in general ? so you use more diversificated portfolio trading optimized over all possible investment classes?
Average hold on one of my strategies which is described in my thread is 11 days....but yes...I haven't forayed much into timeframes less than say M30. I diversify with anything I do...it is just a habit of mine borne from my dislike of risk events and the need to be in control. I like to win and plan for it.... and as a result, force the outcome by looking for solutions that lie outside the realms of luck and slip into the world of return via managed risk.
  • #1,277
  • Oct 8, 2017 5:05pm Oct 8, 2017 5:05pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Average hold on one of my strategies which is described in my thread is 11 days....but yes...I haven't forayed much into timeframes less than say M30. I diversify with anything I do...it is just a habit of mine borne from my dislike of risk events and the need to be in control. I like to win and plan for it.... and as a result, force the outcome by looking for solutions that lie outside the realms of luck and slip into the world of return via managed risk.
yes, i like the solutions that lie outside the realms of luck and slip into the world of return via managed risk too, have only many intraday strategies added, then maybe my wins from shortterm are same organized like your trading. i was seeing in your profile you was or be using IG. did you using the guarenteed stops they offer? are this 100% guaranteed or more marketing then worth for flash crash protection or other events like news?
  • #1,278
  • Oct 8, 2017 5:11pm Oct 8, 2017 5:11pm
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} yes, i like the solutions that lie outside the realms of luck and slip into the world of return via managed risk too, have only many intraday strategies added, then maybe my wins from shortterm are same organized like your trading. i was seeing in your profile you was or be using IG. did you using the guarenteed stops they offer? are this 100% guaranteed or more marketing then worth for flash crash protection or other events like news?
It is a bit like playing the cart before the horse with guaranteed stops. You need to place them at the time of order entry. To manage your risk with them, you need to pay the cost (insurance premium) at all times which really mounts up in $...so I use other ways to skin the dead cat....but yes, I really like IG. Their offering is superb and they have a big balance sheet, fall under tight regulation in Aussie and have a really good trading platform for those that like to trade by visual charts (ProRealTime). :-)
  • #1,279
  • Oct 8, 2017 5:14pm Oct 8, 2017 5:14pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} It is a bit like playing the cart before the horse with guaranteed stops. You need to place them at the time of order entry. To manage your risk with them, you need to pay the cost (insurance premium) at all times which really mounts up in $...so I use other ways to skin the dead cat....but yes, I really like IG. Their offering is superb and they have a big balance sheet, fall under tight regulation in Aussie and have a really good trading platform for those that like to trade by visual charts (ProRealTime). :-)
ok, i see. maybe cheaper then options for some cases.
  • #1,280
  • Edited 7:33pm Oct 8, 2017 5:33pm | Edited 7:33pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Gaurantreed stops during weekends also?
Yep. The guaranteed stop of IG is active at all time during the trade itself....but it costs. If you trade news events like DT does....they are well worth it. They create that asymmetrical constraint boundary you look for when you trade a market. A bit like using straddles with options on news events. :-)
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