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  • #1,121
  • Oct 5, 2017 2:35pm Oct 5, 2017 2:35pm
Quoting Teek
{quote} 60 pips wont bother me at all, that's about "a tight stop" Cuts a bit into my upside on my Yen trades, but they are all healthy. I wish I could get positioned in the Euro, but it's all so uncertain. I don't have faith in the short move, and before NFP I can't see the long breakout. Can't get into the EU... wonder if that's good. I usualy profit whenever I DON'T trade this b*tch of a market But I love chitchat with you peeps. I'm bored
I wish I (already) had your confidence.
I had 2 trades today EURUSD and GBPUSD and closed both far too early. For me it's still difficult to tink BIG (also in terms of SL ). And 60pips do matter to me..... just in terms of statistics
  • #1,122
  • Oct 5, 2017 3:48pm Oct 5, 2017 3:48pm
Nearest resistance is 1.1725 to 1.1732 zone.. as long as we are below it no rush to close shorts.

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #1,123
  • Oct 5, 2017 4:35pm Oct 5, 2017 4:35pm
Quoting Et2017
{quote} I wish I (already) had your confidence. I had 2 trades today EURUSD and GBPUSD and closed both far too early. For me it's still difficult to tink BIG (also in terms of SL ). And 60pips do matter to me..... just in terms of statistics
On first thought I suggest: trade smaller.
If a trade pulls against you and this causes you to kill the trade before the stop, you are trading too big.
Make sure having a few losers don't hurt you. Reality is, you will lose more often than you win and it's a good and reasonable Risk/Reward moneymanagement that makes you win in trading. Not winning trades.
Your job is not to win trades. Your job is: ) protect your capital and 2) make money.

I don't focus on the results, not at all.
If I found a good trading opportunity that makes sense in the market situation and gives me the Risk/Reward that I need and does not exceed my total exposure, I take it. Once executed, my job is done and I let the market decide if it's a winner or a loser, as I have no controle about this anymore. If the trade pulls, I start managing it (trailing stops, upscaling/downscaling risk within total market exposure...) but until then, my job is done. Who cares if it wins or loses, if the trade made sense I've done it right. The rest is up to the markets.

Also. for less experienced traders it is much better to trade the larger timeframes. Less noise, better signals, less stress.
"Small account = Small timeframes" is a false conclusion (in my opinion) and I'd trade a 500 account the same way as I trade a 100k account. Only difference is the sizing, everything else is the same. A trade is a trade and if there is 5 Euro or 500 Euro in it doesn't change the trade.
Manage your risk according to your capital, focus on finding good opportunity that makes sense, and by all means if you "close early" because fear: trade smaller.

and don't give a shit about money. It's worthless, it comes and goes. If you cant be happy without it, you wont be happy with it. I don't give a shit about money, seriously

Good luck
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,124
  • Oct 5, 2017 4:44pm Oct 5, 2017 4:44pm
Quoting Teek
{quote} On first thought I suggest: trade smaller. If a trade pulls against you and this causes you to kill the trade before the stop, you are trading too big. Make sure having a few losers don't hurt you. Reality is, you will lose more often than you win and it's a good and reasonable Risk/Reward moneymanagement that makes you win in trading. Not winning trades. Your job is not to win trades. Your job is: ) protect your capital and 2) make money. I don't focus on the results, not at all. If I found a good trading opportunity that makes sense in...
Thanks. yes, I trade 4H recently. It's calmer and clearer.
  • #1,125
  • Oct 5, 2017 5:32pm Oct 5, 2017 5:32pm
Quoting Et2017
{quote} I wish I (already) had your confidence. I had 2 trades today EURUSD and GBPUSD and closed both far too early. For me it's still difficult to tink BIG (also in terms of SL ). And 60pips do matter to me..... just in terms of statistics
there is never anything wrong with booking your profit. you made a good decision, might not have been maximum profit, but thats half the battle is taking profit when you got it man.
  • #1,126
  • Oct 5, 2017 11:35pm Oct 5, 2017 11:35pm
Good Morning Folks,

Here we arrived at the last day of the week. I hope we all make nice profit from the NFP ripple effect.

Nearest resistance has dropped down to 1.1701 to 1.1713 zone.. as long as price is below it no need to close shorts..

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #1,127
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:07am Oct 6, 2017 1:07am
Buy until NFP. Stop: 1.1680 TP: 1.1740
It could be bull or bear, but NFP usually creates spikes and now the price will test or create resistances to be able to clear the res and support levels(stops of course)during the NFP. Btw, it forms an ascending triangle which usually supports bears.
On H1 view the Fib 61.8 is 1.1748 which can be a good target, otherwise I will close it before NFP
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,128
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:11am Oct 6, 2017 1:11am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Good Morning Folks, Here we arrived at the last day of the week. I hope we all make nice profit from the NFP ripple effect. Nearest resistance has dropped down to 1.1701 to 1.1713 zone.. as long as price is below it no need to close shorts.. Stay Green

Can you please tell me if you are seeing Euro bouncing back today please? EUR is so crap I am on the verge of closing my account - it hit me big time when previously I earned some fromthis pair.

many thanks for anythibg you can share
  • #1,129
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:27am Oct 6, 2017 1:27am
I'm long on Eur/Aud from 1.51, so I'm hoping for Euro strength too, lol.
  • #1,130
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:31am Oct 6, 2017 1:31am
1.1660 - next support
1 or 2?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,131
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:35am Oct 6, 2017 1:35am
Quoting Valadorn
1.1660 - next support 1 or 2? {image}
If have to bet I would say, it will test the neckline of the doublebottom (1.1448) and go back for testing the ascending trendline somewhere 1.22xx (but the projection shows the next 6-9 months)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,132
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:46am Oct 6, 2017 1:46am
Quoting littlemole85
{quote} If have to bet I would say, it will test the neckline of the doublebottom (1.1448) and go back for testing the ascending trendline somewhere 1.22xx (but the projection shows the next 6-9 months) {image}
D1 on fibo, more accurate estimate for next month
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  • #1,133
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:55am Oct 6, 2017 1:55am
Quoting Valadorn
{quote} D1 on fibo, more accurate estimate for next month {image}

yeah I know. I wont short below 1.15 because it is underlying currency strength. it will hit 1.22 end of the year. It wont go above depend on political situation in germany.
  • #1,134
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:58am Oct 6, 2017 1:58am
I think NFP has already been priced. Keep your stop losses wide or dont keep. It will be a moderate reaction. Look for the wage growth and avg hourly earnings.

Good day
  • #1,135
  • Oct 6, 2017 2:07am Oct 6, 2017 2:07am
Quoting Valadorn
{quote} D1 on fibo, more accurate estimate for next month {image}
It would create a H&S? Hmmm... I like the idea
  • #1,136
  • Edited 3:28am Oct 6, 2017 2:28am | Edited 3:28am
Good morning

NFP Friday
a friendly hint: the big players (Investment Banks and really large funds) are positioned weeks ahead according to their predictions of the NFP numbers, which are surprisingly precise and accurate.
They use the NFP Vola to trade OUT, never to trade in.
These people are smart and they don't lose. Trust me, these people do not lose.
On a sidenote, they get the numbers long before we do.

Be smart, be like the dark side
If you are still in the markets, use the Vola to trade out, if you know some dark magic to predict the numbers as accurate as these guys do.
None of us mortals can really predict this shit and nobody really knows how the big guys do it.,
so the smartest thing to do in my book is what my old buddy Tudor use to say:
"it's best to stay out"

Do not try to catch a running train. You will get hurt.

On the EU: Nothing really happened. Price sits on support and NFP will cause shortterm violence, as usual.
I'm smart, I'm out, and I stay out until next week.
Have a good weekend
you are not expected to understand this
  • #1,137
  • Oct 6, 2017 2:52am Oct 6, 2017 2:52am
Quoting interludebay
{quote} Can you please tell me if you are seeing Euro bouncing back today please? EUR is so crap I am on the verge of closing my account - it hit me big time when previously I earned some fromthis pair. many thanks for anythibg you can share
NFP might do not much today if numbers come neutral.. majority always thinks of 2 options either good or bad but we might have this 3rd option of neutral too.. the worst case for you is that EurUsd doesn't go anywhere and sits below 1.1705...

The closest area for a bounce is 1.1660 to 1.1640 area.. but if your trades are still open at those levels it might be already too late for you and you will find yourself in deep stress..

When I would be in this sort of trouble I would close anyways no matter what and look for the next opportunity.. but I wouldn't be in your position in the first place because I know and embrace what I am risking before I take a trade and just let it run until either sl gets hit or my trade arrives at reward level..

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #1,138
  • Edited 3:33am Oct 6, 2017 3:22am | Edited 3:33am
Quoting Teek
Good morning NFP Friday a friendly hint: the big players (Investment Banks and really large funds) are positioned weeks ahead according to their predictions of the NFP numbers, which are surprisingly precise and accurate. They use the NFP Vola to trade OUT, never to trade trade in. These people are smart and they don't lose. Trust me, these people do not lose. On a sidenote, they get the numbers long before we do. Be smart, be like the dark side If you are still in the markets, use the Vola to trade out, if you know some dark magic to predict...
Hi, what does "trading OUT" mean? Finding a good exit?

Another question, if I may. You mentioned to take the (set in stone) short @ 1.16561 in a previous post. What would be your SL? And from the recent position, wouldn't you expect it to be triggered just by a spike caused from NFP-nervosity?
I know you look at the bigger picture (that I cab't see yet) and so I try to learn...

Thanks.
Have a good day.
  • #1,139
  • Oct 6, 2017 4:11am Oct 6, 2017 4:11am
Pre-NFP H4 Important Levels (Sweet Spots)

The chart speaks for itself.. I have slightly bearish bias, therefore might look to sell high but it is best to stay neutral.. if you can lol..

Trade what you see.. and good luck to all..

Stay Green
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-H4-Analysis.png Size: 27 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #1,140
  • Oct 6, 2017 4:24am Oct 6, 2017 4:24am
Quoting Et2017
{quote} Hi, what does "trading OUT" mean? Finding a good exit? Another question, if I may. You mentioned to take the (set in stone) short @ 1.16561 in a previous post. What would be your SL? Thanks. Have a good day.
Trading out:
in very simple words it means they use the high volatility to close positions
They "trade out" (close) on Volatility spikes (which are well calculated way ahead) that drive the price into the desired ranges (which are also well calculated way ahead).

The Short I had in mind: in this specific case my Stop would have been in the 1.179 range and trailed on the first spike down, most likely on the H4/H1 chart. If 1.16561 was hit without a decent rejection, I would predict a "sharp move" down, which I'd use to trail my Stop riskfree and try to "snatch" a countertrend short, targeting 1.158-1.155 range, then close or stay in depending on what I see on the chart.
That what would have been my short. Bit of a "scalp" based on a D1 setup, something I rarely ever do. I did have a Sell stop there, but I made up my mind and canceled it.
Because it's friday and NFP: I do not trade this!! I wanted this to happen earlier this week, so if it happens today it's only because NFP and I'm not interested.

"I know you look at the bigger picture (that I cab't see yet) and so I try to learn..."
you can always contact me, so I wont need to spam the forum so much. (sorry for that)

Good luck

edit: look at Ata's previous post. Spot on.
you are not expected to understand this
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