Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick | Page 57 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

An Edge for an Edge (System Development) 116 replies

Beating the Odds - Edge Within a Single Candlestick (Explained) 71 replies

Looking for higher timeframe candlestick overlay indicator 10 replies

top 2 single candlestick pattern 7 replies

There is No Edge in a Single Candlestick 64 replies

Attachments: Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick
Exit Attachments

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #1,121
  • Oct 5, 2017 5:21pm Oct 5, 2017 5:21pm
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} i tried already to show him his mistakes, he cant understand it, he is in his own dreamworld same like with his trading. with math you cant say him so anything, he cant see this. and rest he cant understand. impossible to help him, at least in dreams he feels like he got it and has some little wins in trading. best you get is many bad comments from his followers to defend that your math is not true and you need to think out the box,...... they cant accept that uncorrelated things are not possible to calculate as correlated facts. (roulette,...
lol indeed, i had to dig deep to find one of his "funniest" post about probability but here it is
Quoting CrucialPoint
The probability of flipping either a head or a tail is 50%... If you only do this once!!!! If we repeat this experiment several hundreds, thousands, million of times,would get an infinite number of combination of Heads and Tails, which NOWHERE will come close to a 50% probability. When you flip a coin ONCE, you will get a 50% probability... When you flip a coin for INFINITY, the probability is NULL.
and despite people trying to explain something that basic to him, that whether you throw a dice once or a million time the probability is still 50%, he still couldnt get it and kept arguing and arguing. That was the moment i was done with him. also notice how despite the fact that he was proven wrong some of his minions kept trying to justify him. not really different than what is happening in this thread, he throws some cryptic and suddenly some are getting eurekas moment left-right.
  • #1,122
  • Oct 5, 2017 5:24pm Oct 5, 2017 5:24pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} lol indeed, i had to dig deep to find one of his "funniest" post about probability but here it is {quote} and despite people trying to explain something that basic to him, that whether you throw a dice once or a million time the probability is still 50%, he still couldnt get it and kept arguing and arguing. That was the moment i was done with him. also notice how despite the fact that he was proven wrong some of his minions kept trying to justify him. not really different than what is happening in this thread, he throws some cryptic ...
in math he had always problems, you can find many wrong statements from him. but whatever, i am no follower of him, for me he is unimportant, only hist extrem mistakes i correct for not misleading people with complete wrong things, the smaller can other do.

but you are correct, in his problem with math he created some very funny moments. and you are also correct, that many followers cant check this, its like a church, many cant be objective , but at least you see so very fast at what level some people are. its normal that in forums 90% cant evaluate correct because they did never learned the basics correct or even dont want to learn, so judging things and persons correct is impossible.
  • #1,123
  • Edited 5:56pm Oct 5, 2017 5:38pm | Edited 5:56pm
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} So no one has the ability to return a measly 100% so far this year on a live account? So how are you going to make a living trading if you cannot even double your live account? If you have been on FF for years what have you learned? If you have learned something what have you applied? If you applied something why haven't you reached 100% return YTD? Simple process. But a dead end for most? Still looking for answers when the answer is staring at your face?
there is a problem. with trading account doubling is possible, but thats stupid calculation for beginners.

you need to calculate all you have, all your real estate, money at home, cars values, your hardware (if you have expensive) , your trading account, your cash money for fast possibilites, your shares , companie values......... when you calculated all this values togethe,r then from start of the year until end of the year you have the true win. and this is possible to compare with someone else, anything without this is just useless, because tells you nothing (because for example you can win in 1 account and lost in 2 other - or trade one acocunt this direction in other opposite and have null win, even small losses, but can show one account with good win.....).
only then you see the true drawdown and the true wins! so many calculate drawdown not to true value people have, but exactly this is used as good trader, to optimize your all in one result.

all other calculations are stupid, when i have 2 account and tell you in one account i have 100% , in other have 10% and in real estate maybe 5% you know nothing, until i tell you how many percents of money is in each part. having trading account with 100% is possible , because you put out money what you dont need for doing this and you cant use for volume to bring in market any more (or you want some risk reduzed diversification or use some good business opportunity). so maybe you need to invest in company shares best if you are good connected to banks or startup topic, or real estate for some ground investements if you have some millions over ... and and and.

so what will it help you when you get this information someone has 100% in 1 account? near zero information. you can only compare when you calculate all together or the information is useless.

using only 1 account is ok, when its all money in you have or all what has a value. but if not, its common beginner mistake like calculating return in pips or look at balance and not for equity,....
  • #1,124
  • Oct 5, 2017 5:46pm Oct 5, 2017 5:46pm
These sort of threads are to bring in more easy prey so we can take money away from them. That's how the market works , it needs 90% or so retail traders to lose to keep it in equilibrium. Trading is like hunting , you are the one setting the traps or the one being trapped .
  • #1,125
  • Oct 5, 2017 6:02pm Oct 5, 2017 6:02pm
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} For example, if you work for me and I give you 100k and say double it by end of year trading forex. Can you do it? If not, you get the sack. It about setting goals and achieving them. Noobs have no goals and look to people that do.
yes and no.
its no 100% chance to have a 100% win, maybe more, maybe less. but chance are very high to come around this when its only this small account value.
but even when we would splitt wins, i would not do so because of many reasons. and by the way , its also important with what drawdown to get this, i trade with very low normally, so amplitude is very low too and 100% as goal per year is enough with little risks. surviving by earning , thats the rule.


this managing is ok when you trade 10-20 times the value of your own trading value. less it will bring less then trading own money, at least when you trade high volume already with your own money. and reduced risk of investing others money is only neccesary when i would not be sure to have wins on end of the year.
  • #1,126
  • Edited 6:52pm Oct 5, 2017 6:08pm | Edited 6:52pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} lol indeed, i had to dig deep to find one of his "funniest" post about probability but here it is {quote} and despite people trying to explain something that basic to him, that whether you throw a dice once or a million time the probability is still 50%, he still couldnt get it and kept arguing and arguing. That was the moment i was done with him. also notice how despite the fact that he was proven wrong some of his minions kept trying to justify him. not really different than what is happening in this thread, he throws some cryptic ...
Perhaps you are tossing a theoretical coin and not a 'real coin' with initial conditions of head up or tail up, applied force, principle of least action under gravity, angular momentum and vertical displacement. The devil is in the detail.

A 'virtual roulette' table on the web simulates the reality but applies a different process. That process is generated by a random number generator which removes considerable bias of a roulette wheel but cannot currently remove all bias associated with the seed of it's initial condition to commence the process. Here is what a clever mathematician said about it.

"Unfortunately, generating random numbers looks a lot easier than it really is. Indeed, it is fundamentally impossible to produce truly random numbers on any deterministic device. Von Neumann [Neu63] said it best: “Anyone who considers arithmetical methods of producing random digits is, of course, in a state of sin.” The best we can hope for are pseudo-random numbers, a stream of numbers that appear as if they were generated randomly."

A random distribution is based on assumptions that approximate a particular form of reality. It is a model applied to reality and not necessarily the best descriptor. Understand the processes at work and you can use better mathematical models.

Mathematics is a tool of theoretical extension used to rigorously test a hypothesis against the reality (observational evidence). Don't be blinded by it...as powerful and fantastic as it is.

A bias with the Law of Large numbers exploits 'real' differences between theory and practice....as most pro gamblers know, long standing successful fund managers exploit and nearly all physicists who know their stuff and current limitations.
  • #1,127
  • Oct 5, 2017 6:31pm Oct 5, 2017 6:31pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Perhaps you are tossing a theoretical coin and not a 'real coin' with initial conditions of head up or tail up, applied force, principle of least action under gravity, angular momentum and vertical displacement. The devil is in the detail. A random distribution is based on assumptions that approximate a particular form of reality. It is a model applied to reality. Understand the processes at work and you can use better mathematical models. Mathematics is a tool used to rigorously test a hypothesis. Don't be blinded by it...as powerful and...
good argument:

thats then for example a difference how to catch the coin.
if you throw to the ground , very little different edges can get important.
if you spin it and catch in air, there are many facts not so important. throw with opposite up each round and then you will wonder how exactly in many rounds you get good results.

if there are differences, they are so small that a win with it is near impossible. or will you wait 10000 rounds until you get results for a coin flip with a extrem little different egde? when you breathing in or out can have also effects to the coin by the way, many others too. if you realy want this in a game, then between als this the coin will be changed , and all restarts again. same in roulette, there will be changed also often some parts or persons to hold the near perfect environment, they are not stupid.

you are correct, that in reality there can be extrem small differences because of physical effects. but this are so small, that its not important to win from it. and was not that the topic? that would be same if someone telling people about esoteric astrological things that are important for trading, ofcouurse the planets can do something with the people because of gravitation, problem is, the gravitation is so extrem extrem small that it is unimportant for trading, for traveling in space it gets important. so all has to be seen for what it will be used.

or how many round will you take a look at a near perfect coint, until you will see that by catching there is something superior to one site? 10000, 100000, 1 mio? how many time you will invest? how is this useable in real live? the effect is there , but to small.
  • #1,128
  • Oct 5, 2017 6:40pm Oct 5, 2017 6:40pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Perhaps you are tossing a theoretical coin and not a 'real coin' with initial conditions of head up or tail up, applied force, principle of least action under gravity, angular momentum and vertical displacement. The devil is in the detail. A random distribution is based on assumptions that approximate a particular form of reality. It is a model applied to reality and not necessarily the best descriptor. Understand the processes at work and you can use better mathematical models. Mathematics is a tool of theoretical extension used to rigorously...
love to read ur posts, thank u

like to say, hence there is cost [spread+slipagge+comission+swap+etc], trading can not be compared w coin toss. or it can be compared w a coin one side half is heavier then other side half
WaBaS Where are Buyers and Sellers
  • #1,129
  • Oct 5, 2017 6:45pm Oct 5, 2017 6:45pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Perhaps you are tossing a theoretical coin and not a 'real coin
dunno and dont care really...
Now its very simple:
you throw a coin once whats the probability of it landing on head or tail ? 50%. your guru also said 50%
you throw a coin 1000th time whats the probability of it landing on head or tail ? well, your guru said its Null... care to explain this to me please
  • #1,130
  • Edited 8:21pm Oct 5, 2017 6:45pm | Edited 8:21pm
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} good argument: thats then for example a difference how to catch the coin. if you throw to the ground , very little different edges can get important. if you spin it and catch in air, there are many facts not so important. throw with opposite up each round and then you will wonder how exactly in many rounds you get good results. if there are differences, they are so small that a win with it is near impossible. or will you wait 10000 rounds until you get results for a coin flip with a extrem little different egde? when you breathing in or...

It is the small bias from a variety of sources that compound over time and turn what appears very small into very big with an increased sample size and/or time duration. We know about the power of compounding in the financial world......... and we use the butterfly effect for example to demonstrate non linearity in complex systems. Complex systems apply non-linear rules to amplify the small things that have a role to play in causal connection.

It is the one to many relationships of complex systems that hold the key as the mutual dependencies arising from co-dependencies in the system itself that result in non-linear amplification. For example a single broker going down the gurgler has an impact on all its clients that are participants in the system. Just this example alone (and there are thousands) in complex systems tells you that there will be times that the market 'appears' random and times when the market clearly is 'not random'.
  • #1,131
  • Edited 7:29pm Oct 5, 2017 6:48pm | Edited 7:29pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} dunno and dont care really... Now its very simple: you throw a coin once whats the probability of it landing on head or tail ? 50%. your guru also said 50% you throw a coin 1000th time whats the probability of it landing on head or tail ? well, your guru said its Null... care to explain this to me please
Exactly....don't really care...so no...you are on your own. You have the nous....start using it.
  • #1,132
  • Oct 5, 2017 6:54pm Oct 5, 2017 6:54pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} It is the small bias from a variety of sources that compound over time and turn what appears very small into very big with an increased sample size and/or time duration. We know about the butterfly effect for example. Complex systems apply non-linear rules to amplify the small things that have a role to play in causal connection. It is the one to many relationships of complex systems that hold the key as the mutual dependencies arising from co-dependencies in the system itself that result in non-linear amplification. For example a single...

yes, i told you are correct , but same time this effect is complete useless. you dont have so much time or this effect is calculated in reality and the systems will restarted often, like in roulette parts will change (system, ball, thrower,.....).

so my effect with breath in and out has more effect maybe then the rest, or graviation of the planets has effects, but i dont start getting esoteric becuase i know the effects are to small in reality to take it serios.
the butterfly effect is such a theory too, in some possible to see in million time more total unimportant. that we are on earth, any little thing was like butterfly effect, it was very unlikely and any little effect produced on the end the result. ofcourse any one knows this.

the problem is, you need to seperate between wahts important and unimportant for trading, or we get really to planet graviation on the end, that will have impact to the quotes. (and i dont speak about quotes from space companies)
  • #1,133
  • Oct 5, 2017 6:59pm Oct 5, 2017 6:59pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} dunno and dont care really... Now its very simple: you throw a coin once whats the probability of it landing on head or tail ? 50%. your guru also said 50% you throw a coin 1000th time whats the probability of it landing on head or tail ? well, your guru said its Null... care to explain this to me please
crucial point was more mention that when there are infinity rounds, there is no correct value on the end possible to calculate, thats why say its 0. but thats ofcourse never useable, you can forget this result, because complety usless in life. so his calculation can be ok, if you dont need in life your results, you will never die and nothing changes around you ..... or all is different to calculate.

so see this calculation as useless, as extrem never possible value you can reach in the max possible theory of impossibility. ok that was many superlative words, but was not near enough what it would need to say to describe this effect. it has no effect to anything he mentioned in his text for trading, there he was complete wrong.
  • #1,134
  • Oct 5, 2017 7:02pm Oct 5, 2017 7:02pm
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} yes, i told you are correct , but same time this effect is complete useless. you dont have so much time or this effect is calculated in reality and the systems will restarted often, like in roulette parts will change (system, ball, thrower,.....). so my effect with breath in and out has more effect maybe then the rest, or graviation of the planets has effects, but i dont start getting esoteric becuase i know the effects are to small in reality to take it serios. the butterfly effect is such a theory too, in some possible to see in million...
At the risk of repeating myself...as I am tempted to leave this as a riddle like CP likes to do.

The 'secret' is well know to the professional fund managers. It is called the 'free lunch of diversification' where you amplify a very small bias seen in an equity curve on one instrument through the blending of other small biases of other less correlated equity curves to create a blend with an 'amplified risk-weighted return'. The technique to achieve this bias (or the strategy) is simply the means to an end...whether it be by using FA, Statistical Modelling or TA. They can all work if you dig deep enough.

Thereafter with less volatility of your portfolio's total return stream through your improved risk-weighting you gear up in position sizing to further amplify the result and get far bigger bang for buck that you can achieve on a single instrument.....don't believe me....believe the hundreds of successful fund managers who have stood the test of time for over 30 years or so and have delivered outstanding returns that are 'real' and not myfxbook 'illusions'.
  • #1,135
  • Edited 7:23pm Oct 5, 2017 7:07pm | Edited 7:23pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} At the risk of repeating myself...I am tempted to leave this as a riddle like CP likes to do. The 'secret' is well know to the professional fund managers. It is called the 'free lunch of diversification' where you amplify a very small bias seen in an equity curve on one instrument through the blending of other small biases of other less correlated equity curves to create your amplification of higher 'risk-weighted return'. The technique to achieve this bias (or the strategy) is simply the means to an end...whether it be by using FA, Statistical...
what you mention is basic stuff in banks and funds, more important for investing then trading part.

and i know some of them , some are good, some even only trade arbitrage with extrem money in infrastructure or best connected people inside and hide this fact. some lets say are not anytime this brilliant what you say, its more basic stuff from books they use and more shares buying and holding strategy with diversification.

but whatever, i let you play your riddle , i like arguments,riddle are really more CP style, and he had his problems with this too.
  • #1,136
  • Edited 7:47pm Oct 5, 2017 7:10pm | Edited 7:47pm
.
  • #1,137
  • Oct 5, 2017 7:10pm Oct 5, 2017 7:10pm
Come on, guys ... Comparing trading with 50/50-chance games is like comparing apple and orange (only shit will come out of it) ...
In 50/50-chance games, the coin/dice/ball has no memory of what had happened previously ...
The market is a different beast. It memorizes what had happened within a short past and/or a longer one, then "decide" to either continue or reverse it, usually by having some kind of "pause" first ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #1,138
  • Oct 5, 2017 7:14pm Oct 5, 2017 7:14pm
Quoting 4for4
Come on, guys ... Comparing trading with 50/50-chance games is like comparing apple and orange (only shit will come out of it) ... In 50/50-chance games, the coin/dice/ball has no memory of what had happened previously ... The market is a different beast. It memorizes what had happened within a short past and/or a longer one, then "decide" to either continue or reverse it, usually by having some kind of "pause" first ...
yes, the rounds are not connected because of the restarts ,so are the results not connected together. thatswhy it is useless to try to connect it. but some really try to, because of whatever reason...... many here dont understand this reasons too.
  • #1,139
  • Oct 5, 2017 8:18pm Oct 5, 2017 8:18pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} At the risk of repeating myself...as I am tempted to leave this as a riddle like CP likes to do. The 'secret' is well know to the professional fund managers. It is called the 'free lunch of diversification' where you amplify a very small bias seen in an equity curve on one instrument through the blending of other small biases of other less correlated equity curves to create a blend with an 'amplified risk-weighted return'. The technique to achieve this bias (or the strategy) is simply the means to an end...whether it be by using FA, Statistical...
great read
WaBaS Where are Buyers and Sellers
  • #1,140
  • Edited 9:02pm Oct 5, 2017 8:51pm | Edited 9:02pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} Neither. With a fair coin toss, both "divergence away from the mean" and "reversion toward the mean" are illusions created by a perception that's grounded in gambler's fallacy. You apparently reach the conclusion that "it is a fluctuation between the two" which is caused by the fact that neither phenomenon is prevalent in a statistically meaningful way. If you believe that you can in some way predict the fluctuations, then let's play a coin toss game where I pay you 99c every time you predict correctly, and you pay me $1.00 every time you...
This is clear proof that the impact of gamblers fallacy is more far reaching than most believe it to be.

Quoting metta87
{quote} lol indeed, i had to dig deep to find one of his "funniest" post about probability but here it is {quote} and despite people trying to explain something that basic to him, that whether you throw a dice once or a million time the probability is still 50%, he still couldnt get it and kept arguing and arguing. That was the moment i was done with him. also notice how despite the fact that he was proven wrong some of his minions kept trying to justify him. not really different than what is happening in this thread, he throws some cryptic and suddenly some are getting eurekas moment left-right.
There're people who believe in this illusion that single results is different from a sequence of results taken as one. It's not new though.

Quoting 4for4
Come on, guys ... Comparing trading with 50/50-chance games is like comparing apple and orange (only shit will come out of it) ... In 50/50-chance games, the coin/dice/ball has no memory of what had happened previously ... The market is a different beast. It memorizes what had happened within a short past and/or a longer one, then "decide" to either continue or reverse it, usually by having some kind of "pause" first ...
Look who did.
4 traders viewing now