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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #1,101
  • Oct 5, 2017 12:41pm Oct 5, 2017 12:41pm
Quoting nealpek
HeyYou, much appreciated. What style or type of trader are you?
I set and forget... that's it.
  • #1,102
  • Oct 5, 2017 12:42pm Oct 5, 2017 12:42pm
The research above concluded that the average candle stick has an aproximate 25% ol. 50% oc. 25% oh.

so what about the candle stick which has a 10% ol, 85% oc, 5% oh.
can you tell whether the candle was more probably bearish or bullish ?
The truth is hidden from you
  • #1,103
  • Oct 5, 2017 12:45pm Oct 5, 2017 12:45pm
Simple maths.
the less of the total range is below open, the more range should be above open.
Now research the following, the relation between oc and ol in bullish candles.
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The truth is hidden from you
  • #1,104
  • Oct 5, 2017 12:46pm Oct 5, 2017 12:46pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} I set and forget... that's it.
Sounds good to me!
  • #1,105
  • Edited 2:56pm Oct 5, 2017 12:58pm | Edited 2:56pm
Quoting MaxenshteinD
Simple maths. the less of the total range is below open, the more range should be above open. Now research the following, the relation between oc and ol in bullish candles. {image} {image}
Yes, but it’s depending on what the tick did yesterday.

Every day we get two levels, one for buyer and one for seller. Usually the tick hits both levels, but sometimes there are more buyer or more seller in market or they have not enough power to reach the levels today. In my world the edge within a candle is to understand the concept of buyers and sellers. As I have already said, the market works like math.
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  • #1,106
  • Oct 5, 2017 1:10pm Oct 5, 2017 1:10pm
Quoting HurryK
{quote} I don't understand your proces of generating a candlestick with pseudo-tick data. Either way, there will always be an underlying distribution. It's easy enough to check, simply generate a histogram of your dataset that generated in the candle. IF the distribution is uniform, THEN IMO it is truely random and unpredictable. And hence unprofitable. Again, this would result in a 33-33-33 candle. However IF the distribution is different, e.g. a normal distribution THEN this would result in a 25-50-25 candle as you have shown. However in that...
standard distribution that is assumed for many math fin applications is that
returns of the price processes are log normally distributed (same assumption used in BS options model).

you cant assume the distribution of the price directly (as it is not stationary) - it needs to be assumed on the returns.
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #1,107
  • Oct 5, 2017 1:15pm Oct 5, 2017 1:15pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
(when shift is pressed it is $$$, very wise!)
If i am right, it must be a damn good Spliff Tail you are fireburning!
L.L.L.T
  • #1,108
  • Oct 5, 2017 1:30pm Oct 5, 2017 1:30pm
Quoting nealpek
{quote} Sounds good to me!

If you're interested, I'm going to share with you my worst trend following ea

it works on any pair with any RR from 2000 to 2018. BUT then it's up to you to make good use of it
  • #1,109
  • Oct 5, 2017 1:35pm Oct 5, 2017 1:35pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} If you're interested, I'm going to share with you my worst trend following ea it works on any pair with any RR from 2000 to 2018. BUT then it's up to you to make good use of it
please go ahead)
The truth is hidden from you
  • #1,110
  • Oct 5, 2017 1:38pm Oct 5, 2017 1:38pm
Quoting MaxenshteinD
{quote} please go ahead)
I said "with you"... with HIM.

I like when someone appreciate my comments
  • #1,111
  • Oct 5, 2017 1:39pm Oct 5, 2017 1:39pm
Quoting KayStreet
{quote} If i am right, it must be a damn good Spliff Tail you are fireburning!
His nick is 4for4, I have shortened his nick to 444, when you do press the shift while typing 444, you get $$$ instead. Got it?

BTW, same approach is required, if you want to jump over the moments when they try to take your money away...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #1,112
  • Oct 5, 2017 1:56pm Oct 5, 2017 1:56pm
Guys, you just have very little idea how good this tread really is. I advise you, all of you, to get back on its original topic and deep dive into the meaning of the bold sentence... Again, instead of cracking this down, you are just wasting your time.

Do you ever want to make money from trading? I start sensing you honestly DO NOT WANT! That must be your inner impulse!

Or you are just hell lazy and prefer to wait someone else to pour down a billion or two ? Lets make it four ? Why not just eight billion dollars/euros/pounds? Right into your bank account(s) ?!? Why not eight of each currency?

That is ANOTHER super great tread... going to waste. And then someone will message me: what is the crack tread you are talking about?

And you are just sitting on a gold mine! Do you like gold? Maybe it is a good time to start DIGGING IT!
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #1,113
  • Oct 5, 2017 2:04pm Oct 5, 2017 2:04pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} I'm not here to build trust nor form friendship with anyone. My contact-ability is off. I'm not here to seek anyone's approval, friendship, likes or dislikes. Unlike people who have other agendas in scamming people. What I offer is "take it or leave it". Please don't take offense... but I don't give a shit about anyone here. I don't need anything from anyone here. Most of my post are due to me procrastinating and not doing what I'm suppose to be doing. I actually posted some of my trades... I posted my account balance.... and then they said...
I only wanted explain, why some people do not take your posts seriously (not my case, I like knowledge and another view of the problem).
I have never talked about your whole real balance, but about demo (or live with micro account), you dont need share your primary strategy.
Please, dont take my post as suggesting, only as idea in discussion.
Peace.
  • #1,114
  • Edited 2:16pm Oct 5, 2017 2:05pm | Edited 2:16pm
Quoting Anusragger
{quote} If you had to summarize these thoughts in 1 short sentence, what would it be?
Understand your belief system…………………………..

Both EMH & RW belong to the same "school of thought"……that the structure of a market is unimportant and does not convey an advantage and that information is of no value since it is factored into the market

Both belong to the same "school of thought"……….they both refute the use of TA.

If you use TA in your trading, you can't actually believe the structure of a market is unimportant and does not convey an advantage (RW)

If you use TA in your trading, you can't actually believe that information is of no value since it is factored into the market.(EMH). You wouldn't need a chart at all, if information is of no value since it is factored into the market, you just enter the market, if you win it's a matter of sheer luck.

You can't use TA (the very thing both EMH & RW refutes) to support either argument.

You cant use TA to support either one as both EMH & RW refutes the use, and denies the validity of technical analysis.

Quoting Anusragger
{quote} If you had to summarize these thoughts in 1 short sentence, what would it be?
Understand your belief system…………………………..
Technical Analyst shouldn't waste their time trying to support any argument………that denies it's validity.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,115
  • Oct 5, 2017 2:31pm Oct 5, 2017 2:31pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
Guys, you just have very little idea how good this tread really is. I advise you, all of you, to get back on its original topic and deep dive into the meaning of the bold sentence... Again, instead of cracking this down, you are just wasting your time. Do you ever want to make money from trading? I start sensing you honestly DO NOT WANT! That must be your inner impulse! Or you are just hell lazy and prefer to wait someone else to pour down a billion or two ? Lets...
MoneyZilla, what are you smoking?
The whole thread is from the beginning complete garbage, it's not a gold mine, it's a pile of sh*t.
It's entertaining and laughable at best.
  • #1,116
  • Oct 5, 2017 3:14pm Oct 5, 2017 3:14pm
The candlestick, bar charts or any way of presenting price movement always gives wrong outdated information. lagging indicator. Yes, when we see any candle it shows after effect of market agreement at any given time. we see the path of price, or where the market was some time ago but not NOW. They the professionals make chart pattern to trip not you but others players. We the retail level traders did not trade in actual currency market but derivatives of them. think beyond the charts. Thousand shades of black!!!!!!
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #1,117
  • Edited Oct 6, 2017 1:18pm Oct 5, 2017 3:52pm | Edited Oct 6, 2017 1:18pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
SO which is it.... A)divergence away from the mean or B)Reversion toward the mean?
Neither. With a fair coin toss, both "divergence away from the mean" and "reversion toward the mean" are illusions created by a perception that's grounded in gambler's fallacy. You apparently reach the conclusion that "it is a fluctuation between the two" which is caused by the fact that neither phenomenon is prevalent in a statistically meaningful way. If you believe that you can in some way predict the fluctuations, then let's play a coin toss game where I pay you 99c every time you predict correctly, and you pay me $1.00 every time you predict wrongly; I'll happily compete over a billion tosses. It has nothing to do with "knowing too much" or "understanding very little" -- once again, that is merely your unproven contention -- it has everything to do with the reality of the underlying math.**

The drivers behind the markets are completely different to those behind a (theoretically) perfect random number generator. Attempting to draw a parallel between the markets and a fair coin toss is misleading.
______________________
**[EDIT]
Obviously, if there is a bias -- either with the coin itself, or the way in which it is being tossed -- then by definition it is no longer a 'fair' coin toss, and the math is compromised accordingly.
  • #1,118
  • Oct 5, 2017 4:10pm Oct 5, 2017 4:10pm
Quoting The-Flipper
{quote} MoneyZilla, what are you smoking? The whole thread is from the beginning complete garbage, it's not a gold mine, it's a pile of sh*t. It's entertaining and laughable at best.
I am smoking a... clit. Every next day!

That is the problem! This place is doomed. It is just like a pub. Unlike pubs, here you cant get a decent fuck... Anyways.

Wish you more good laughs!
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #1,119
  • Edited 4:47pm Oct 5, 2017 4:27pm | Edited 4:47pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} Neither. With a fair coin toss, both "divergence away from the mean" and "reversion toward the mean" are illusions created by a perception that's grounded in gambler's fallacy. You apparently reach the conclusion that "it is a fluctuation between the two" which is caused by the fact that neither phenomenon is prevalent in a statistically meaningful way. If you believe that you can in some way predict the fluctuations, then let's play a coin toss game where I pay you 99c every time you predict correctly, and you pay me $1.00 every time you...
i tried already to show him his mistakes, he cant understand it, he is in his own dreamworld same like with his trading. with math you cant say him so anything, he cant see this. and rest he cant understand. impossible to help him, at least in dreams he feels like he got it and has some little wins in trading.

best you get is many bad comments from his followers to defend that your math is not true and you need to think out the box,......

they cant accept that uncorrelated things are not possible to calculate as correlated facts. (roulette, coin flip,....)

your point of "illusions created by a perception that's grounded in gambler's fallacy" is an important point , many have problems with this who cant be objective enough.
worst case then often happen, and people even win with their wrong assumption, and because of this they think more then ever they are correct. its same like when oyu starting trading and have some luck trades or extrem good month or even year and lost many after some month /years... because there was no luck again over long time.
  • #1,120
  • Oct 5, 2017 4:46pm Oct 5, 2017 4:46pm
Quoting miro1360
{quote} I only wanted explain, why some people do not take your posts seriously (not my case, I like knowledge and another view of the problem). I have never talked about your whole real balance, but about demo (or live with micro account), you dont need share your primary strategy. Please, dont take my post as suggesting, only as idea in discussion. Peace.
wont happen, or he ll blow his demo like his friend Eurusdd a.k.a Peter Acquaah (similarity -dissimilarity stuff), funny thing is most of the people following him used to have eurusdd the scammer also as their guru. dude's whole mission here with his cryptic stuff is to entice noobs to trade, period. Like i said before, couple years ago he was on fxcm dailyfx forum, preaching the exact same stuff he been preachin here. wont be surprised if he works for them ( FXCM/FF),no wonder all the charts he posts are from FXCM's Trade Station II
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